Hydrologic Model Framework for Water Resources Planning in the Santa Cruz River,Southern Arizona1

Abstract: The authors develop a model framework that includes a set of hydrologic modules as a water resources management and planning tool for the upper Santa Cruz River near the Mexican border, Southern Arizona. The modules consist of: (1) stochastic generation of hourly precipitation scenarios that maintain the characteristics and variability of a 45‐year hourly precipitation record from a nearby rain gauge; (2) conceptual transformation of generated precipitation into daily streamflow using varied infiltration rates and estimates of the basin antecedent moisture conditions; and (3) surface‐water to ground‐water interaction for four downstream microbasins that accounts for alluvial ground‐water recharge, and ET and pumping losses. To maintain the large inter‐annual variability of streamflow as prevails in Southern Arizona, the model framework is constructed to produce three types of seasonal winter and summer categories of streamflow (i.e., wet, medium, or dry). Long‐term (i.e., 100 years) realizations (ensembles) are generated by the above described model framework that reflects two different regimes of inter annual variability. The first regime is that of the historic streamflow gauge record. The second regime is that of the tree ring reconstructed precipitation, which was derived for the study location. Generated flow ensembles for these two regimes are used to evaluate the risk that the regional four ground‐water microbasins decline below a preset storage threshold under different operational water utilization scenarios.     

城郊地区土地利用总体规划的结构设计

本文运用系统工程中的分解与协调原理，借助成都市龙泉驿区土地利用总体规划，对城郊土地利用总体规划进行结构设计，较好地达到了城郊地区土地利用总体规划的定量、定位与定时的统一，宏观控制与微观操作的统一．     

A Decision Support Framework for Environmental Planning in Developing Countries

This paper presents a decision support framework for environmental planning in developing countries. The interest in protecting the natural environment from pollution gained increased importance in the 1990s with a push by world communities for sustainable development. Developing countries as well as the industrialized nations are expected to cut down on pollution and control the use of non-renewable natural resources. Although the concept of sustainable development sounds plausible, it is difficult to implement in many countries due to their conflicting goals. The world-wide targets on emissions, use of fossil fuels, reduction in water and atmospheric pollution require the participation of every nation. These goals are not easily achievable by some of the poorer developing countries partly because of their economic dependence on natural resources and partly because of their inability to afford more modern and efficient technologies. Thus, environmental planning goals are often in conflict with the development,social and economic needs of a country. In this paper, we develop a decision support framework that utilizes multicriteria and optimization models to address environmental planning problems. This framework is based on identifying the priorities of conflicting goals by working through and reducing the conflicts. A strategic planning framework is introduced into the decision support system since national planning is a strategic issue and these goals can only be achieved by adopting a systemic view.     

Urbanization and the Environment in Southern Africa: Towards a Managed Framework for the Sustainability of Cities

In sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Africa is the most urbanized region. This dynamic is rapidly transforming the nature of Southern African human settlements which, in turn, has a chain reaction of consequences from negative environmental impact to the need to develop policy for the sustainability of the region's cities. This paper examines the relationship between urbanization trends and environmental change in Southern Africa, and then advocates and discusses priority areas of a managed policy framework for a more constructive approach to responding to the challenge of the sustainability of cities in the region. The paper concentrates on those countries that are members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).     

Operational Atmospheric Modeling System CARIS for Effective Emergency Response Associated with Hazardous Chemical Releases in Korea

The Chemical Accidents Response Information System (CARIS) was developed at the Center for Chemical Safety Management in South Korea in order to track and predict the dispersion of hazardous chemicals in the case of an accident or terrorist attack involving chemical companies. The main objective of CARIS is to facilitate an efficient emergency response to hazardous chemical accidents by rapidly providing key information in the decision-making process. In particular, the atmospheric modeling system implemented in CARIS, which is composed of a real-time numerical weather forecasting model and an air pollution dispersion model, can be used as a tool to forecast concentrations and to provide a wide range of assessments associated with various hazardous chemicals in real time.This article introduces the components of CARIS and describes its operational modeling system. Some examples of the operational modeling system and its use for emergency preparedness are presented and discussed. Finally, this article evaluates the current numerical weather prediction model for Korea.Published online     

Toward a Conceptual Framework for Blending Social and Biophysical Attributes in Conservation Planning: A Case-Study of Privately-Conserved Lands

There has been increasing recognition within systematic conservation planning of the need to include social data alongside biophysical assessments. However, in the approaches to identify potential conservation sites, there remains much room for improvement in the treatment of social data. In particular, few rigorous methods to account for the diversity of less-easily quantifiable social attributes that influence the implementation success of conservation sites (such as willingness to conserve) have been developed. We use a case-study analysis of private conservation areas within the Little Karoo, South Africa, as a practical example of the importance of incorporating social data into the process of selecting potential conservation sites to improve their implementation likelihood. We draw on extensive data on the social attributes of our case study obtained from a combination of survey questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. We discuss the need to determine the social attributes that are important for achieving the chosen implementation strategy by offering four tested examples of important social attributes in the Little Karoo: the willingness of landowners to take part in a stewardship arrangement, their willingness to conserve, their capacity to conserve, and the social capital among private conservation area owners. We then discuss the process of using an implementation likelihood ratio (derived from a combined measure of the social attributes) to assist the choice of potential conservation sites. We conclude by summarizing our discussion into a simple conceptual framework for identifying biophysically-valuable sites which possess a high likelihood that the desired implementation strategy will be realized on them.     

The Value of Validated Vulnerability Data for Conservation Planning in Rapidly Changing Landscapes

Data needed for informed conservation prioritization are generally greater than the data available, and surrogates are often used. Although the need to anticipate threats is recognized, the effectiveness of surrogates for predicting habitat loss (or vulnerability) to land-use change is seldom tested. Here, we compared properties of two different vulnerability surrogates to validated vulnerability—validated prediction of habitat conversion based on a recent assessment of land-use change. We found that neither surrogate was a particularly effective predictor of vulnerability. Importantly, both surrogates performed poorly in places most imminently threatened with habitat conversion. We also show that the majority of areas protected over the last two decades have low vulnerability to the most active threatening process in this biome (habitat conversion). The contrary patterns of vulnerability and protection suggest that use of validated vulnerability would help to clarify protection needs, which might lead to the improvement of conservation decisions. Our study suggests the integration of validated vulnerability into conservation planning tools may be an important requirement for effective conservation planning in rapidly changing landscapes. We apply our results to discuss the practical considerations and potential value of incorporating validated vulnerability into conservation planning tools both generally and in the context of New Zealand’s indigenous grasslands.     

A Conceptual Framework for Analysis of Water Resources Management in Asia

Effective and efficient water resources management to meet the increasing demands for food, energy, and domestic and industrial water is an imperative for Asian countries. As a basis for analyzing Asian water resources management problems, a three-element conceptual framework is presented: (1) water resources management as a system, composed of a set of facilities, operating rules, and incentives applied to water resources through an institutional arrangement; (2) water resources management as a process involving several stages beginning with planning and continuing with design, construction, operation and maintenance; and (3) water resources management as a set of linked activities and tasks required to produce the desired outputs. Using this framework to assess performance it is possible to analyze the linkages among water resources problems, water resources management, and water resources organizations and administrative arrangements. Examples are presented of such linkages as applied to problems of erosion and sedimentation, flooding, salinity, water demand-supply imbalances, and water pollution. Brief analytical summaries of eight critical water resources management problems in Asia are presented, along with an illustration of the complexity of water resources organization and administration, using Thailand as the example.     

A Framework for Developing Management Goals for Species at Risk with Examples from Military Installations in the United States

A decision framework for setting management goals for species at risk is presented. Species at risk are those whose potential future rarity is of concern. Listing these species as threatened or endangered could potentially result in significant restrictions to activities in resource management areas in order to maintain those species. The decision framework, designed to foster proactive management, has nine steps: identify species at risk on and near the management area, describe available information and potential information gaps for each species, determine the potential distribution of species and their habitat, select metrics for describing species status, assess the status of local population or metapopulation, conduct threat assessment, set and prioritize management goals, develop species management plans, and develop criteria for ending special species management where possible. This framework will aid resource managers in setting management goals that minimally impact human activities while reducing the likelihood that species at risk will become rare in the near future. The management areas in many of the examples are United States (US) military installations, which are concerned about potential restrictions to military training capacity if species at risk become regulated under the US Endangered Species Act. The benefits of the proactive management set forth in this formal decision framework are that it is impartial, provides a clear procedure, calls for identification of causal relationships that may not be obvious, provides a way to target the most urgent needs, reduces costs, enhances public confidence, and, most importantly, decreases the chance of species becoming more rare.     

A Framework for Landscape Ecological Design of New Patches in the Rural Landscape

This study developed a comprehensive framework to incorporate landscape ecological principles into the landscape planning and design process, with a focus on the design of new patches in the rural landscape. The framework includes two interrelated phases: patch analyst (PA) and patch designer (PD). The patch analyst augments the process of landscape inventory and analysis. It distinguishes nodes (associated with potential habitat patches) from links (associated with corridors and stepping stones between habitats). For natural vegetation patches, characteristics such as size, shape, and spatial arrangement have been used to develop analytical tools that distinguish between nodes and links. The patch designer uses quantitative information and analytical tools to recommend locations, shapes, sizes, and composition of introduced patches. The framework has been applied to the development of a new golf course in the rural Mediterranean landscape of Apulia, Southern Italy. Fifty new patches of Mediterranean maquis (24 patches) and garrigue (26 patches) have been designed and located in the golf course, raising the overall natural vegetation area to 70 ha (60% of total property). The framework has potential for use in a wide variety of landscape planning, design, and management projects.     

A Method for Comparative Analysis of Recovery Potential in Impaired Waters Restoration Planning

Common decision support tools and a growing body of knowledge about ecological recovery can help inform and guide large state and federal restoration programs affecting thousands of impaired waters. Under the federal Clean Water Act (CWA), waters not meeting state Water Quality Standards due to impairment by pollutants are placed on the CWA Section 303(d) list, scheduled for Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) development, and ultimately restored. Tens of thousands of 303(d)-listed waters, many with completed TMDLs, represent a restoration workload of many years. State TMDL scheduling and implementation decisions influence the choice of waters and the sequence of restoration. Strategies that compare these waters’ recovery potential could optimize the gain of ecological resources by restoring promising sites earlier. We explored ways for states to use recovery potential in restoration priority setting with landscape analysis methods, geographic data, and impaired waters monitoring data. From the literature and practice we identified measurable, recovery-relevant ecological, stressor, and social context metrics and developed a restorability screening approach adaptable to widely different environments and program goals. In this paper we describe the indicators, the methodology, and three statewide, recovery-based targeting and prioritization projects. We also call for refining the scientific basis for estimating recovery potential.

Identifying Opportunities for Decision Support Systems in Support of Regional Resource Use Planning: An Approach Through Soft Systems Methodology

/ Regional resource use planning relies on key regional stakeholder groups using and having equitable access to appropriate social, economic, and environmental information and assessment tools. Decision support systems (DSS) can improve stakeholder access to such information and analysis tools. Regional resource use planning, however, is a complex process involving multiple issues, multiple assessment criteria, multiple stakeholders, and multiple values. There is a need for an approach to DSS development that can assist in understanding and modeling complex problem situations in regional resource use so that areas where DSSs could provide effective support can be identified, and the user requirements can be well established. This paper presents an approach based on the soft systems methodology for identifying DSS opportunities for regional resource use planning, taking the Central Highlands Region of Queensland, Australia, as a case study.     

Benchmark Criteria: A Tool for Selecting Appropriate Models in the Field of Water Management

A milestone in the field of European water protection policy is the European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), which came into force in December 2000 and which integrates the management of European waters in many ways. In this study, we start by focusing on management issues connected to the implementation of the WFD and pose a question: “what type of models would be the most suitable for use in the context of the WFD?” With this question in mind, we aim to establish a set of operational and functional selection criteria for (computer) models whose application is intended to support decision-making related to a particular water management issue. These so-called “benchmark criteria” should help water managers and other model users in choosing appropriate models, e.g., for the WFD implementation purposes. We first describe models and their use in general and then propose an approach for setting the benchmark criteria for models, basing it on the concept of uncertainty management, while keeping firmly in mind the important role of citizens and citizen organizations in water management. The suggested benchmark criteria are in the form of 14 questions through which each model can be evaluated. Finally, the process for testing and refining the benchmark criteria is highlighted.     

Policy and Practice Certainty for Effective Uptake of Diffuse Pollution Practices in A Light-Touch Regulated Country

Environmental Management - Although the link between agriculture and diffuse water pollution has been understood for decades, there is still a need to implement effective measures to address this...     

A Systems-Based Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Determinants of a Social License to Operate in the Mining Industry

The concept of a “social license to operate” (SLO) was coined in the 1990s and gained popularity as one way in which “social” considerations can be addressed in mineral development decision making. The need for a SLO implies that developers require the widespread approval of local community members for their projects to avoid exposure to potentially costly conflict and business risks. Only a limited amount of scholarship exists on the topic, and there is a need for research that specifically addresses the complex and changeable nature of SLO outcomes. In response to these challenges, this paper advances a novel, systems-based conceptual framework for assessing SLO determinants and outcomes in the mining industry. Two strands of systems theory are specifically highlighted—complex adaptive systems and resilience—and the roles of context, key system variables, emergence, change, uncertainty, feedbacks, cross-scale effects, multiple stable states, thresholds, and resilience are discussed. The framework was developed from the results of a multi-year research project which involved international mining case study investigations, a comprehensive literature review, and interviews conducted with mining stakeholders and observers. The framework can help guide SLO analysis and management efforts, by encouraging users to account for important contextual and complexity-oriented elements present in SLO settings. We apply the framework to a case study in Alaska, USA before discussing its merits and challenges. We also illustrate knowledge gaps associated with applications of complex adaptive systems and resilience theories to the study of SLO dynamics, and discuss opportunities for future research.