Examining the CDCynergy Event Assessment Tool: an investigation of the anthrax crisis in Boca Raton, Florida

This paper examines the dependability of the Event Assessment Tool over time. The latter is part of a CD-ROM--Emergency Risk Communication CDCynergy--distributed primarily to public information officers in the United States by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Event Assessment Tool is designed to aid emergency professionals in identifying the magnitude of a crisis event and to suggest appropriate actions to confront such a situation. Applied twice during the 2001 anthrax bioterrorism crisis in Boca Raton, Florida, the tool functioned in a binary manner by first indicating a moderate crisis level (on 4 October) and then four days later (on 8 October) a highly intense crisis, suggesting that it is time sensitive. This anthrax event provides an opportunity for crisis and disaster managers to understand the dynamic nature of crises. Rapid changes during these types of events suggest that any metric used to predict intensity must account for this variability. Additional limitations and implications of the tool are discussed.     

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal.     

Post‐tsunami relocation of fisher settlements in South Asia: evidence from the Coromandel Coast,India

The tsunami that struck the coasts of India on 26 December 2004 resulted in the large‐scale destruction of fisher habitations. The post‐tsunami rehabilitation effort in Tamil Nadu was directed towards relocating fisher settlements in the interior. This paper discusses the outcomes of a study on the social effects of relocation in a sample of nine communities along the Coromandel Coast. It concludes that, although the participation of fishing communities in house design and in allocation procedures has been limited, many fisher households are satisfied with the quality of the facilities. The distance of the new settlements to the shore, however, is regarded as an impediment to engaging in the fishing profession, and many fishers are actually moving back to their old locations. This raises questions as to the direction of coastal zone policy in India, as well as to the weight accorded to safety (and other coastal development interests) vis‐à‐vis the livelihood needs of fishers.     

Towards a better management of complex emergencies through crisis management meta‐modelling

Managing complex emergency situations is a challenging task, mainly due to the heterogeneity of the partners involved and the critical nature of such events. Whatever approach is adopted to support this objective, one unavoidable issue is knowledge management. In the context of our research project, gathering, formalising and exploiting all the knowledge and information about a given crisis situation is a critical requirement. This paper presents some research results concerning this specific topic: from a theoretical point of view, the generic dimensions of crisis characterisation are defined, while from a technical point of view, we describe a software solution able to collect that knowledge (based on meta‐models and ontologies). This is used to confront the characteristics of the situation (context) with characteristics of the resources (relief system) in order to design a suitable response. Finally, an illustrative example concerning a crash between a tanker truck and a train is described.     

Assessing the impact of microfinance programming on children: an evaluation from post‐tsunami Aceh

This paper presents an evaluation of the long‐term impact of microfinance programmes on Acehnese children during the post‐tsunami recovery. The study, conducted from June to August 2010, examined the impact of microfinance programming six years after the tsunami. The sample consisted of 185 microfinance participants, with a comparison group of 192 individuals who did not participate in microfinance programmes. All respondents were parents, interviewed through a structured survey. The study used four child protection indicators—diet, health, childcare and education—in contrast to traditional repayment rate indicators. The primary results were insignificant with respect to all four child protection indicators, suggesting that, with respect to these indicators, there was no long‐term difference between the impact of microfinance on beneficiaries' children and non‐beneficiaries' children. These findings signify a need for microfinance actors to move beyond traditional indicators of economic success to evaluate the social changes microfinance programmes are presumed to effect.     

Decision‐making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands

A traditional view of decision‐making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the ‘top strategic decision‐making’ for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision‐making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision‐makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision‐making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.     

The 2004 tsunami and mental health in Thailand: a longitudinal analysis of one‐and two‐year post‐disaster data

Some 280,000 people died in the Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004. This cohort study examined its impact on mental health one and two years later. It did so by investigating the association between six consequent variables (personal injury, loss of home, loss of business, death of a family member, injury to a family member, or loss of a family member's business) and mental health, as measured by the 36‐item Short Form Health Survey (SF‐36), among residents in four provinces of Thailand. One year later, participants who suffered a personal injury, the loss of a business, or the loss of a family member reported poorer mental health than those who were unaffected. Two years later, participants who experienced the loss of a family member reported poorer mental health than those who were unaffected. This research shows that such a disaster may have long‐lasting ramifications for mental health, and that diverse losses may influence mental health differently.     

Speed or deliberation: a comparison of post‐disaster recovery in Japan,Turkey, and Chile

This paper compares recovery in the wake of three recent earthquakes: the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011; the Van earthquake in Turkey in October 2011; and the Maule earthquake in Chile in February 2010. The authors visited all three locations approximately 12–18 months after the incidents and interviewed earthquake specialists, disaster managers, urban planners, and local authorities. A key challenge to post‐disaster recovery planning is balancing speed and deliberation. While affected communities must rebuild as quickly as possible, they must also seek to maximise the opportunities for improvement that disasters provide. The three case studies bring this dilemma into stark relief, as recovery was respectively slow, fast, and just right in the aftermath of the events: the Government of Japan adopted a deliberate approach to recovery and reconstruction; speed was of the essence in Turkey; and an effective balance between speed and deliberation was achieved in Chile.     

The rise of politics and the decline of vulnerability as criteria in disaster decisions of the United States, 1953–2009

This paper examines the shift from vulnerability to political responsiveness in presidential and gubernatorial disaster decisions in the United States from 1953–2009 (President Dwight D. Eisenhower to President Barack Obama) using annual request, declaration, and approval data from multiple sources. It makes three key conclusions: first, the 1988 Stafford Act expanded federal coverage to all categories of disasters, added a significant range of individual types of assistance, and provided extensive funding for recovery planning. Second, the election effects on disaster decisions increased over time whereas the impact of social and economic vulnerability (measured by scope of disaster) declined. Third, the changes affected governors more than presidents, and the choices of governors drove those of presidents. The analysis underscores the increasingly political nature of the disaster decision‐making process, as well as the difficulty in emphasising mitigation and preparedness as intensively as response and recovery. Proactive intervention yields fewer political rewards than responsiveness.     

Mental and social health in disasters: the Sphere standards and post‐tsunami psychosocial interventions in Asia

The primary objective of this paper is to examine and inform the mental health and psychosocial support standards of the 2011 edition of the Sphere Project's Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response. This is done through a qualitative analysis of internal evaluation documents, reflecting four long‐term humanitarian psychosocial programmes in different countries in post‐tsunami Asia. The analysis yielded three overall conclusions. First, the Sphere standards on mental health and psychosocial support generally are highly relevant to long‐term psychosocial interventions after disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, and their application in such settings may improve the quality of the response. Second, some of the standards in the current Sphere handbook may lack sufficient guidance to ensure the quality of humanitarian response required. Third, the long‐term intervention approach poses specific challenges to programming, a problem that could be addressed by including additional guidance in the publication.     

Mental health and media links based on five essential elements to promote psychosocial support for victims: the case of the earthquake in Chile in 2010

This paper reviews the role of news with respect to the mental health of a population exposed to a disaster. It is based on the five essential elements of psychosocial care presented by Stevan E. Hobfoll et al. (2007) that can be introduced after a potentially traumatic event: promoting a sense of safety, calming, self and collective efficacy, connectedness, and hope. This study developed a method to relate these elements to television coverage and applied it to the stories (n=1,169) aired by the main networks in Chile in the 72 hours after an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck on 27 February 2010. Of the five elements, promoting a sense of safety occurred most often (82.72 per cent), whereas the others were barely present (less than 10 per cent). The study argues that these elements can increase the possibility of framing the news, given that the audience watching can also be affected by a disaster.     

Addressing challenges for future strategic‐level emergency management: reframing,networking, and capacity‐building

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.     

Exploring the risks of ineffective water supply and sewage disposal: A case study of Mexico City

This study proposes a method to evaluate the effectiveness of water management in providing a safe water supply and adequate sewage discharge and treatment for residents of Mexico City. This method also assesses the vulnerability of the city and its capacity to face or cope with potential threats generated by insufficient water supply and sewage extraction. Indices for analysing these parameters were estimated and the spatial distribution of the groups most affected was identified. According to the results of the models used, Mexico City inhabitants are mainly exposed to risk because of economic limitations rather than ineffective water management. However, some practices implemented by city authorities are increasing the population's exposure to risk. Consequently, in the future it may be necessary to modify the way water is supplied and how sewage is transferred from the city to the sea.     

Organisational challenges in the United Kingdom's post‐disaster ‘crisis support’ work

Local authorities in the United Kingdom are required to ‘lead’ multi‐agency humanitarian responses to major disasters. Concerns mounted in the late twentieth century that responses to people bereaved in the immediate aftermath of such events at best failed to meet their needs and at worst compounded their distress. Subsequent reviews and reforms reframed some victim needs as ‘rights’ and established legal, administrative, and practice frameworks to improve matters. Local authority ‘crisis support’, provided in partnership with other actors, lies at the heart of the UK's contemporary emergency response to the bereaved. Drawing on primary research on the development and the deployment of crisis support in a local authority, and while acknowledging both incident‐ and context‐related difficulties, this paper considers the significance of challenges with their origins in organisational factors. Recent developments within and between responders may exacerbate them. This paper argues, therefore, that further research into such developments is necessary.     

Post‐earthquake rehabilitation of the rural water systems in Kashmir's Jehlum Valley

After the devastating earthquake of 8 October 2005 in Kashmir, international organizations provided the Pakistani government with relief and reconstruction assistance. Under the oft‐cited motto ‘rebuild better’, many of these efforts targeted the rural areas. The emergency period was followed by a development phase, during which all actors sought to ensure that their reconstruction projects would have long‐term, sustainable impacts. Based on the authors’ experience during that phase, this paper offers specific guidelines for rehabilitation work on Kashmir's rural water supply system, stressing the need for analysis of the social context to guarantee sustainability of the completed projects.     

Temporary site selection and decision‐making methods: a case study of Tehran,Iran

Decisions on selecting an appropriate site for temporary shelter used to be taken in a limited amount of time after a disaster. The need for a systematic method in this area inspired the MADM (multi‐attribute decision making) for complex disaster management decisions. This research proposes a model for appropriate and systematic site selection for temporary shelters, before an earthquake, using a geographical information system and MADM based on an earthquake damage assessment. After the effective criteria for site selection of temporary shelters are determined, the geographical layers of these criteria are prepared for Municipal District No.1 of Greater Tehran, the capital of Iran. Given these attributes and the required shelter area (415–610 hectares), 14 zones are proposed initially. Various MADM methods are used for the final selection. The mean of the aggregated ranking results are determined, and 10 of the 14 initial zones are ranked.     

The time process of post‐earthquake recovery: the Yao'an earthquake in China

Post‐disaster recovery is a constantly changing and developing process. The authors conducted three real‐name follow‐up surveys at 1, 12 and 18 months after the Yao'an earthquake, which had a surface wave magnitude of 6.0. They also calculated recovery ratios at different times and drew post‐earthquake domestic life recovery curves. Based on the recovery curves, the time trajectory of domestic life recovery takes on an approximate S‐type development and change process. The recovery time process of domestic life can be divided into four periods: emergency period (weeks 0–2(5)), early recovery period (weeks 2(5)–24), rapid recovery period (weeks 24–34) and late recovery period (weeks 34–60(80)).     

Culture,local capacity,and outside aid: a community perspective on disaster response after the 2009 tsunami in American Sāmoa

Research on diverse cultural contexts has indicated that aid organisations often fail to leverage local, culturally‐grounded resources and capacities in disaster‐affected communities. Case‐study methodology was employed to explore the relationship between local and external disaster response efforts in American Sāmoa following the earthquake and tsunami on 29 September 2009 in the southern Pacific Ocean, with a specific focus on the role of culture in defining that relationship. Interview and focus group data from 37 participants, along with observational data, suggested that the local response to the event was swift and grounded in Samoan cultural systems and norms. External aid was viewed as helpful in some respects, although, on the whole, it was seen as a disruption to village hierarchies, social networks, and local response efforts. The study discusses the implications for the role of outside aid in diverse cultural contexts, and makes suggestions for improving the ecological fit of post‐disaster interventions.     

Probabilistic cost‐benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost‐efficient in a development context. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost‐effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results.     

A post‐earthquake psychopathological investigation in Armenia: methodology,summary of findings,and follow‐up

The post‐earthquake psychopathological investigation (PEPSI) was designed to probe the short‐and long‐term effects of the earthquake in northern Armenia on 7 December 1988 on survivors' mental and physical health. Four phases of this study have been conducted to date, and, overall, more than 80 per cent of a sub‐sample of 1,773 drawn from an initial cohort of 32,743 was successfully followed during 2012. This paper describes the methodology employed in the evaluation, summarises previous findings, details the current objectives, and examines the general characteristics of the sample based on the most recent follow‐up phase outcomes. Despite a significant decrease in psychopathology rates between 1990 and 2012, prevalence rates of post‐traumatic stress disorder and depression among study participants in 2012 were greater than 15 and 26 per cent, respectively. The paper also notes the strengths and limitations of the study vis‐à‐vis future research and highlights the importance and potential practical implications of similar assessments and their outcomes.