Effects of an Exotic Plant Invasion on Native Understory Plants in a Tropical Dry Forest

Abstract: The dry forests of southern India, which are endangered tropical ecosystems and among the world's most important tiger (Panthera tigris) habitats, are extensively invaded by exotic plants. Yet, experimental studies exploring the impacts of these invasions on native plants in these forests are scarce. Consequently, little is known about associated implications for the long‐term conservation of tigers and other biodiversity in these habitats. I studied the impacts of the exotic plant Lantana camara on understory vegetation in a dry‐forest tiger habitat in southern India. I compared the richness, composition, and abundance of tree seedlings, herbs, and shrubs and the abundance of grass among plots in which Lantana was cleared or left standing. These plots were distributed across two blocks—livestock free and livestock grazed. Removal of Lantana had an immediate positive effect on herb–shrub richness in the livestock‐free block, but had no effect on that of tree seedlings in either livestock block. Tree‐seedling and herb–shrub composition differed significantly between Lantana treatment and livestock block, and Lantana removal significantly decreased survival of tree seedlings. Nevertheless, the absence of trees, in any stage between seedling and adult, indicates that Lantana may stall tree regeneration. Lantana removal decreased the abundance of all understory strata, probably because forage plants beneath Lantana are less accessible to herbivores, and plants in Lantana‐free open plots experienced greater herbivory. Reduced access to forage in invaded habitats could negatively affect ungulate populations and ultimately compromise the ability of these forests to sustain prey‐dependent large carnivores. Additional research focused on understanding and mitigating threats posed by exotic plants may be crucial to the long‐term protection of these forests as viable tiger habitats.     

Assessing the Potential to Restore Historic Grazing Ecosystems with Tortoise Ecological Replacements

The extinction of large herbivores, often keystone species, can dramatically modify plant communities and impose key biotic thresholds that may prevent an ecosystem returning to its previous state and threaten native biodiversity. A potentially innovative, yet controversial, landscape‐based long‐term restoration approach is to replace missing plant‐herbivore interactions with non‐native herbivores. Aldabran giant (Aldabrachelys gigantea) and Madagascan radiated (Astrochelys radiata) tortoises, taxonomically and functionally similar to the extinct Mauritian giant tortoises (Cylindraspis spp.), were introduced to Round Island, Mauritius, in 2007 to control the non‐native plants that were threatening persistence of native species. We monitored the response of the plant community to tortoise grazing for 11 months in enclosures before the tortoises were released and, compared the cost of using tortoises as weeders with the cost of using manual labor. At the end of this period, plant biomass; vegetation height and cover; and adult, seedling, flower, and seed abundance were 3–136 times greater in adjacent control plots than in the tortoise enclosures. After their release, the free‐roaming tortoises grazed on most non‐native plants and significantly reduced vegetation cover, height, and seed production, reflecting findings from the enclosure study. The tortoises generally did not eat native species, although they consumed those native species that increased in abundance following the eradication of mammalian herbivores. Our results suggest that introduced non‐native tortoises are a more cost‐effective approach to control non‐native vegetation than manual weeding. Numerous long‐term outcomes (e.g., change in species composition and soil seed bank) are possible following tortoise releases. Monitoring and adaptive management are needed to ensure that the replacement herbivores promote the recovery of native plants. Estudiando el Potencial para Restaurar Ecosistemas Históricos de Forrajeo con Reemplazos Ecológicos de Tortugas Terrestres     

Effects of Drainage‐Basin Geomorphology on Insectivorous Bird Abundance in Temperate Forests

Abstract: Interfaces between terrestrial and stream ecosystems often enhance species diversity and population abundance of ecological communities beyond levels that would be expected separately from both the ecosystems. Nevertheless, no study has examined how stream configuration within a watershed influences the population of terrestrial predators at the drainage‐basin scale. We examined the habitat and abundance relationships of forest insectivorous birds in eight drainage basins in a cool temperate forest of Japan during spring and summer. Each basin has different drainage‐basin geomorphology, such as the density and frequency of stream channels. In spring, when terrestrial arthropod prey biomass is limited, insectivorous birds aggregated in habitats closer to streams, where emerging aquatic prey was abundant. Nevertheless, birds ceased to aggregate around streams in summer because terrestrial prey became plentiful. Watershed‐scale analyses showed that drainage basins with longer stream channels per unit area sustained higher densities of insectivorous birds. Moreover, such effects of streams on birds continued from spring through summer, even though birds dispersed out of riparian areas in the summer. Although our data are from only a single year, our findings imply that physical modifications of stream channels may reduce populations of forest birds; thus, they emphasize the importance of landscape‐based management approaches that consider both stream and forest ecosystems for watershed biodiversity conservation.     

Bird‐community responses to habitat creation in a long‐term,large‐scale natural experiment

Ecosystem function and resilience are compromised when habitats become fragmented due to land‐use change. This has led to national and international conservation strategies aimed at restoring habitat extent and improving functional connectivity (i.e., maintaining dispersal processes). However, biodiversity responses to landscape‐scale habitat creation and the relative importance of spatial and temporal scales are poorly understood, and there is disagreement over which conservation strategies should be prioritized. We used 160 years of historic post‐agricultural woodland creation as a natural experiment to evaluate biodiversity responses to habitat creation in a landscape context. Birds were surveyed in 101 secondary, broadleaf woodlands aged 10–160 years with ≥80% canopy cover and in landscapes with 0‐17% broadleaf woodland cover within 3000 m. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to examine the direct and indirect relationships between bird abundance and diversity, ecological continuity, patch characteristics, and landscape structure and quantified the relative conservation value of local and landscape scales for bird communities. Ecological continuity indirectly affected overall bird abundance and species richness through its effects on stand structure, but had a weaker influence (effect size near 0) on the abundance and diversity of species most closely associated with woodland habitats. This was probably because woodlands were rapidly colonized by woodland generalists in ≤10 years (minimum patch age) but were on average too young (median 50 years) to be colonized by woodland specialists. Local patch characteristics were relatively more important than landscape characteristics for bird communities. Based on our results, biodiversity responses to habitat creation depended on local‐ and landscape‐scale factors that interacted across time and space. We suggest that there is a need for further studies that focus on habitat creation in a landscape context and that knowledge gained from studies of habitat fragmentation and loss should be used to inform habitat creation with caution because the outcomes are not necessarily reciprocal.     

Applying the dark diversity concept to nature conservation

Linking diversity to biological processes is central for developing informed and effective conservation decisions. Unfortunately, observable patterns provide only a proportion of the information necessary for fully understanding the mechanisms and processes acting on a particular population or community. We suggest conservation managers use the often overlooked information relative to species absences and pay particular attention to dark diversity (i.e., a set of species that are absent from a site but that could disperse to and establish there, in other words, the absent portion of a habitat‐specific species pool). Together with existing ecological metrics, concepts, and conservation tools, dark diversity can be used to complement and further develop conservation prioritization and management decisions through an understanding of biodiversity relativized by its potential (i.e., its species pool). Furthermore, through a detailed understanding of the population, community, and functional dark diversity, the restoration potential of degraded habitats can be more rigorously assessed and so to the likelihood of successful species invasions. We suggest the application of the dark diversity concept is currently an underappreciated source of information that is valuable for conservation applications ranging from macroscale conservation prioritization to more locally scaled restoration ecology and the management of invasive species.     

Assessing the effectiveness of specially protected areas for conservation of Antarctica's botanical diversity

Vegetation is sparsely distributed over Antarctica's ice‐free ground, and distinct plant communities are present in each of the continent's 15 recently identified Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). With rapidly increasing human activity in Antarctica, terrestrial plant communities are at risk of damage or destruction by trampling, overland transport, and infrastructure construction and from the impacts of anthropogenically introduced species, as well as uncontrollable pressures such as fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) activity and climate change. Under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the conservation of plant communities can be enacted and facilitated through the designation of Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs). We examined the distribution within the 15 ACBRs of the 33 ASPAs whose explicit purpose includes protecting macroscopic terrestrial flora. We completed the first survey using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite remote sensing to provide baseline data on the extent of vegetation cover in all ASPAs designated for plant protection in Antarctica. Large omissions in the protection of Antarctic botanical diversity were found. There was no protection of plant communities in 6 ACBRs, and in another 6, <0.4% of the ACBR area was included in an ASPA that protected vegetation. Protected vegetation cover within the 33 ASPAs totaled 16.1 km² for the entire Antarctic continent; over half was within a single protected area. Over 96% of the protected vegetation was contained in 2 ACBRs, which together contributed only 7.8% of the continent's ice‐free ground. We conclude that Antarctic botanical diversity is clearly inadequately protected and call for systematic designation of ASPAs protecting plant communities by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties, the members of the governing body of the continent.     

Surrogates for Macrofungi and Mosses in Reservation Planning

Abstract: Our knowledge of cryptogam taxonomy and species distributions is currently too poor to directly plan for their conservation. We used inventory data from four distinct vegetation types, near Hobart Tasmania, to address the proposition that vegetation type, vascular plant taxon composition, and environmental variables can act as surrogates for mosses and macrofungi in reservation planning. The four vegetation types proved distinct in their taxon composition for all macrofungi, mosses, and vascular plants. We tested the strength of the relationships between the composition of cryptogam taxonomic groups and vascular plant composition and between the environmental variables and canopy cover. Taxon composition of woody vascular plants and vascular plants was the best predictor of the taxon composition of mosses and macrofungi. Combinations of environmental variables and canopy cover were also strong predictors of the taxon composition of mosses and macrofungi. We used an optimization routine for vascular plant taxa and woody plant species and determined the representation of cryptogam taxa in these selections. We identified sites with approximately 10% and 30% of the greatest proportions of vascular plants and woody vascular plants and calculated representation of mosses and macrofungi at these sites. We compared the results of these site selections with random site selections and random selections stratified by vegetation type. Random selection of sites by vegetation type generally captured more cryptogams than site selection by vascular plants at the 10% level. Vascular plant and woody plant taxon composition, vegetation type, and environmental and structural characteristics, all showed promise as surrogates for capturing common cryptogams in reserve systems.     

Reduced Density and Nest Survival of Ground‐Nesting Songbirds Relative to Earthworm Invasions in Northern Hardwood Forests

Abstract: European earthworms (Lumbricus spp.) are spreading into previously earthworm‐free forests in the United States and Canada and causing substantial changes, including homogenization of soil structure, removal of the litter layer, and reduction in arthropod abundance and species richness of understory plants. Whether these changes affect songbirds that nest and forage on the forest floor is unknown. In stands with and without earthworms in the Chequamegon‐Nicolet National Forest, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), we surveyed for, monitored nests of, and measured attributes of habitat of Ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus) and Hermit Thrushes (Catharus guttatus), both ground‐dwelling songbirds, and we sampled earthworms at survey points and nests. Bird surveys indicated significantly lower densities of Ovenbirds and Hermit Thrushes in relation to Lumbricus invasions at survey point and stand extents (3.1 and 15–20 ha, respectively). Modeling of Ovenbird nest survival (i.e., the probability that nestlings successfully fledge) indicated that lower survival probabilities were associated with increased sedge cover and decreased litter depth, factors that are related to Lumbricus invasions, possibly due to reduced nest concealment or arthropod abundance. Our findings provide compelling evidence that earthworm invasions may be associated with local declines of forest songbird populations.     

Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions

Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state‐and‐transition, species‐distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade‐offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision‐support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade‐offs exist between competing conservation objectives.     

Resolving whether botanic gardens are on the road to conservation or a pathway for plant invasions

A global conservation goal is to understand the pathways through which invasive species are introduced into new regions. Botanic gardens are a pathway for the introduction of invasive non‐native plants, but a quantitative assessment of the risks they pose has not been performed. I analyzed data on the living collections of over 3000 botanic gardens worldwide to quantify the temporal trend in the representation of non‐native species; the relative composition of threatened, ornamental, or invasive non‐native plant species; and the frequency with which botanic gardens implement procedures to address invasive species. While almost all of the world's worst invasive non‐native plants occurred in one or more living collections (99%), less than one‐quarter of red‐listed threatened species were cultivated (23%). Even when cultivated, individual threatened species occurred in few living collections (7.3), while non‐native species were on average grown in 6 times as many botanic gardens (44.3). As a result, a botanic garden could, on average, cultivate four times as many invasive non‐native species (20) as red‐listed threatened species (5). Although the risk posed by a single living collection is small, the probability of invasion increases with the number of botanic gardens within a region. Thus, while both the size of living collections and the proportion of non‐native species cultivated have declined during the 20th century, this reduction in risk is offset by the 10‐fold increase in the number of botanic gardens established worldwide. Unfortunately, botanic gardens rarely implement regional codes of conduct to prevent plant invasions, few have an invasive species policy, and there is limited monitoring of garden escapes. This lack of preparedness is of particular concern given the rapid increase in living collections worldwide since 1950, particularly in South America and Asia, and highlights past patterns of introduction will be a poor guide to determining future invasion risks.     

Declines in Woodland Salamander Abundance Associated with Non-Native Earthworm and Plant Invasions

Abstract:  Factors that negatively affect the quality of wildlife habitat are a major concern for conservation. Non-native species invasions, in particular, are perceived as a global threat to the quality of wildlife habitat. Recent evidence indicates that some changes to understory plant communities in northern temperate forests of North America, including invasions by 3 non-native plant species, are facilitated by non-native earthworm invasion. Furthermore, non-native earthworm invasions cause a reduction in leaf litter on the forest floor, and the loss of forest leaf litter is commonly associated with declines in forest fauna, including amphibians. We conducted a mark-recapture study of woodland salamander abundance across plant invasion fronts at 10 sites to determine whether earthworm or plant invasions were associated with reduced salamander abundance. Salamander abundance declined exponentially with decreasing leaf litter volume. There was no significant relationship between invasive plant cover and salamander abundance, independent of the effects of leaf litter loss due to earthworm invasion. An analysis of selected salamander prey abundance (excluding earthworms) at 4 sites showed that prey abundance declined with declining leaf litter. The loss of leaf litter layers due to non-native earthworm invasions appears to be negatively affecting woodland salamander abundance, in part, because of declines in the abundance of small arthropods that are a stable resource for salamanders. Our results demonstrate that earthworm invasions pose a significant threat to woodland amphibian fauna in the northeastern United States, and that plant invasions are symptomatic of degraded amphibian habitat but are not necessarily drivers of habitat degradation.     

Effects of Spatially Extensive Control of Invasive Rats on Abundance of Native Invertebrates in Mainland New Zealand Forests

Predation on native fauna by non‐native invasive mammals is widely documented, but effects of predation at the population level are rarely measured. Eradication of invasive mammals from islands has led to recovery of native biota, but the benefits of controlling invasive mammal populations in settings where eradication is not feasible are less understood. We used various combinations of aerially delivered toxic bait and control measures on the ground to reduce abundances of invasive rats (Rattus rattus) to low levels over large areas on mainland New Zealand and then monitored the abundance of invertebrates on replicated treatment sites to compare with abundances on similar nontreatment sites. We also assessed rat diet by examining stomach contents. Abundance of the rats’ most‐consumed invertebrate prey item, the large‐bodied Auckland tree weta (Hemideina thoracica), increased 3‐fold on treatment sites where we maintained rats at <4/ha for approximately 3 years, compared with the nontreatment sites. Auckland tree weta also increased in abundance on sites where rats were controlled with a single aerial‐poisoning operation, but rat abundance subsequently increased on these sites and tree weta abundance then declined. Nevertheless, our data suggest that biennial reduction of rat abundances may be sufficient to allow increases in tree weta populations. Other invertebrates that were consumed less often (cave weta [Rhaphidophoridae], spiders [Araneae], and cockroaches [Blattodea]) showed no systematic changes in abundance following rat control. Our results suggest that the significant threat to recruitment and individual survival that predation by rats poses for tree weta can be mitigated by wide‐scale aerial pest control. Efectos del Control Extensivo Espacial de Ratas Invasoras sobre la Abundancia de Invertebrados Nativos en Bosques de Nueva Zelanda     

Relations between Urban Bird and Plant Communities and Human Well‐Being and Connection to Nature

Abstract: By 2050, 70% of the world's population will live in urban areas. In many cases urbanization reduces the richness and abundance of native species. Living in highly modified environments with fewer opportunities to interact directly with a diversity of native species may adversely affect residents’ personal well‐being and emotional connection to nature. We assessed the personal well‐being, neighborhood well‐being (a measure of a person's satisfaction with their neighborhood), and level of connection to nature of over 1000 residents in 36 residential neighborhoods in southeastern Australia. We modeled these response variables as a function of natural features of each neighborhood (e.g., species richness and abundance of birds, density of plants, and amount of vegetation cover) and demographic characteristics of surveyed residents. Vegetation cover had the strongest positive relations with personal well‐being, whereas residents’ level of connection to nature was weakly related to variation in species richness and abundance of birds and density of plants. Demographic characteristics such as age and level of activity explained the greatest proportion of variance in well‐being and connection to nature. Nevertheless, when controlling for variation in demographic characteristics (examples were provided above), neighborhood well‐being was positively related to a range of natural features, including species richness and abundance of birds, and vegetation cover. Demographic characteristics and how well‐being was quantified strongly influenced our results, and we suggest demography and metrics of well‐being must be considered when attempting to determine relations between the urban environment and human well‐being.     

E‐commerce trade in invasive plants

Biological invasions are a major concern in conservation, especially because global transport of species is still increasing rapidly. Conservationists hope to anticipate and thus prevent future invasions by identifying and regulating potentially invasive species through species risk assessments and international trade regulations. Among many introduction pathways of non‐native species, horticulture is a particularly important driver of plant invasions. In recent decades, the horticultural industry expanded globally and changed structurally through the emergence of new distribution channels, including internet trade (e‐commerce). Using an automated search algorithm, we surveyed, on a daily basis, e‐commerce trade on 10 major online auction sites (including eBay) of approximately three‐fifths of the world's spermatophyte flora. Many recognized invasive plant species (>500 species) (i.e., species associated with ecological or socio‐economic problems) were traded daily worldwide on the internet. A markedly higher proportion of invasive than non‐invasive species were available online. Typically, for a particular plant family, 30–80% of recognized invasive species were detected on an auction site, but only a few percentages of all species in the plant family were detected on a site. Families that were more traded had a higher proportion of invasive species than families that were less traded. For woody species, there was a significant positive relationship between the number of regions where a species was sold and the number of regions where it was invasive. Our results indicate that biosecurity is not effectively regulating online plant trade. In the future, automated monitoring of e‐commerce may help prevent the spread of invasive species, provide information on emerging trade connectivity across national borders, and be used in horizon scanning exercises for early detection of new species and their geographic source areas in international trade.     

Changes in Arthropod Assemblages along a Wide Gradient of Disturbance in Gabon

Abstract: Searching for indicator taxa representative of diverse assemblages, such as arthropods, is an important objective of many conservation studies. We evaluated the impacts of a wide gradient of disturbance in Gabon on a range of arthropod assemblages representing different feeding guilds. We examined 4 × 10⁵ arthropod individuals from which 21 focal taxa were separated into 1534 morphospecies. Replication included the understory of 3 sites in each of 4 different stages of forest succession and land use (i.e., habitats) after logging (old and young forests, savanna, and gardens). We used 3 complementary sampling methods to survey sites throughout the year. Overall differences in arthropod abundance and diversity were greatest between forest and open habitats, and cleared forest invaded by savanna had the lowest abundance and diversity. The magnitude of faunal differences was much smaller between old and young forests. When considered at this local scale, anthropogenic modification of habitats did not result in a monotonous decline of diversity because many herbivore pests and their associated predators and parasitoids were abundant and diverse in gardens, where plant productivity was kept artificially high year‐round through watering and crop rotation. We used a variety of response variables to measure the strength of correlations across survey locations among focal taxa. These could be ranked as follows in terms of decreasing number of significant correlations: species turnover > abundance > observed species richness > estimated species richness > percentage of site‐specific species. The number of significant correlations was generally low and apparently unrelated to taxonomy or guild structure. Our results emphasize the value of reporting species turnover in conservation studies, as opposed to simply measuring species richness, and that the search for indicator taxa is elusive in the tropics. One promising alternative might be to consider “predictor sets” of a small number of taxa representative of different functional groups, as identified in our study.     

Protected‐Area Boundaries as Filters of Plant Invasions

Abstract: Human land uses surrounding protected areas provide propagules for colonization of these areas by non‐native species, and corridors between protected‐area networks and drainage systems of rivers provide pathways for long‐distance dispersal of non‐native species. Nevertheless, the influence of protected‐area boundaries on colonization of protected areas by invasive non‐native species is unknown. We drew on a spatially explicit data set of more than 27,000 non‐native plant presence records for South Africa's Kruger National Park to examine the role of boundaries in preventing colonization of protected areas by non‐native species. The number of records of non‐native invasive plants declined rapidly beyond 1500 m inside the park; thus, we believe that the park boundary limited the spread of non‐native plants. The number of non‐native invasive plants inside the park was a function of the amount of water runoff, density of major roads, and the presence of natural vegetation outside the park. Of the types of human‐induced disturbance, only the density of major roads outside the protected area significantly increased the number of non‐native plant records. Our findings suggest that the probability of incursion of invasive plants into protected areas can be quantified reliably.     

Birds as predators in tropical agroforestry systems

Insectivorous birds reduce arthropod abundances and their damage to plants in some, but not all, studies where predation by birds has been assessed. The variation in bird effects may be due to characteristics such as plant productivity or quality, habitat complexity, and/or species diversity of predator and prey assemblages. Since agroforestry systems vary in such characteristics, these systems provide a good starting point for understanding when and where we can expect predation by birds to be important. We analyze data from bird exclosure studies in forests and agroforestry systems to ask whether birds consistently reduce their arthropod prey base and whether bird predation differs between forests and agroforestry systems. Further, we focus on agroforestry systems to ask whether the magnitude of bird predation (1) differs between canopy trees and understory plants, (2) differs when migratory birds are present or absent, and (3) correlates with bird abundance and diversity. We found that, across all studies, birds reduce all arthropods, herbivores, carnivores, and plant damage. We observed no difference in the magnitude of bird effects between agroforestry systems and forests despite simplified habitat structure and plant diversity in agroforests. Within agroforestry systems, bird reduction of arthropods was greater in the canopy than the crop layer. Top-down effects of bird predation were especially strong during censuses when migratory birds were present in agroforestry systems. Importantly, the diversity of the predator assemblage correlated with the magnitude of predator effects; where the diversity of birds, especially migratory birds, was greater, birds reduced arthropod densities to a greater extent. We outline potential mechanisms for relationships between bird predator, insect prey, and habitat characteristics, and we suggest future studies using tropical agroforests as a model system to further test these areas of ecological theory.     

Use of Community‐Composition Data to Predict the Fecundity and Abundance of Species

Abstract: Species distribution models are critical tools for the prediction of invasive species spread and conservation of biodiversity. The majority of species distribution models have been built with environmental data. Community ecology theory suggests that species co‐occurrence data could also be used to predict current and potential distributions of species. Species assemblages are the products of biotic and environmental constraints on the distribution of individual species and as a result may contain valuable information for niche modeling. We compared the predictive ability of distribution models of annual grassland plants derived from either environmental or community‐composition data. Composition‐based models were built with the presence or absence of species at a site as predictors of site quality, whereas environment‐based models were built with soil chemistry, moisture content, above‐ground biomass, and solar radiation as predictors. The reproductive output of experimentally seeded individuals of 4 species and the abundance of 100 species were used to evaluate the resulting models. Community‐composition data were the best predictors of both the site‐specific reproductive output of sown individuals and the site‐specific abundance of existing populations. Successful community‐based models were robust to omission of data on the occurrence of rare species, which suggests that even very basic survey data on the occurrence of common species may be adequate for generating such models. Our results highlight the need for increased public availability of ecological survey data to facilitate community‐based modeling at scales relevant to conservation.     

Accuracy of Short‐Term Demographic Data in Projecting Long‐Term Fate of Populations

Short‐term surveys are useful in conservation of species if they can be used to reliably predict the long‐term fate of populations. However, statistical evaluations of reliability are rare. We studied how well short‐term demographic data (1999–2002) of tartar catchfly (Silene tatarica), a perennial riparian plant, projected the fate and growth of 23 populations of this species up to the year 2010. Surveyed populations occurred along a river with natural flood dynamics and along a regulated river. Riparian plant populations are affected by flooding, which maintains unvegetated shores, while forest succession proceeds in areas with little flooding. Flooding is less severe along the regulated river, and vegetation overgrowth reduces abundance of tartar catchfly on unvegetated shores. We built matrix models to calculate population growth rates and estimated times to population extinction in natural and in regulated rivers, 13 and 10 populations, respectively. Models predicted population survival well (model predictions matched observed survival in 91% of populations) and accurately predicted abundance increases and decreases in 65% of populations. The observed and projected population growth rates differed significantly in all but 3 populations. In most cases, the model overestimated population growth. Model predictions did not improve when data from more years were used (1999–2006). In the regulated river, the poorest model predictions occurred in areas where cover of other plant species changed the fastest. Although vegetation cover increased in most populations, it decreased in 4 populations along the natural river. Our results highlight the need to combine disturbance and succession dynamics in demographic models and the importance of habitat management for species survival along regulated rivers. Precisión de Datos Demográficos de Corto Plazo en la Proyección del Destino de Poblaciones a Largo Plazo