中国近代灾荒史理论探析

中国近代灾荒史是中国灾荒史的断代史.中国近代灾荒史作为一个研究的有机系统,是由灾害、灾荒、灾因、灾荒社会问题、灾荒救治等子系统组成,各系统又有自己的组成要素,这些架构了中国近代灾荒史的学科体系.中国近代灾荒史与灾害学、社会学、经济史、政治军事史、外交史之间有密切的关系,深入研究中国近代灾荒史,加强灾荒史教育,对今天防灾...     

Famine intensity and magnitude scales: a proposal for an instrumental definition of famine

Ambiguities in current usage of the term "famine" have had tragic implications for response and accountability in a number of recent food crises. This paper proposes a new approach to defining famine based on the use of intensity and magnitude scales, where "intensity" refers to the severity of the crisis at a given location and point in time, while "magnitude" describes the aggregate impact of a crisis. The scales perform three operations on "famine": first, moving from a binary conception of "famine/no famine" to a graduated, multi-level definition; second, disaggregating the dimensions of intensity and magnitude; and third, assigning harmonised "objective" criteria in place of subjective, case-by-case judgements. If adopted, the famine scales should contribute to more effective and proportionate responses, as well as greater accountability in future food crises.     

Archetypes of famine and response

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations—watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks—that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.     

‘The Ethiopian famine’ revisited: Band Aid and the antipolitics of celebrity humanitarian action

In many ways the Ethiopian famine of 1983–85 has served as a watershed with respect to humanitarian action. One of its lasting legacies has been the emergence of Band Aid and the subsequent increase in celebrity humanitarianism. A revisiting of the events of 1983–85 occurred in 2010 during a dispute in which it was alleged that a portion of the donations of Band Aid were spent on arms purchases. This paper takes this controversy as its starting point. It goes on to use the theoretical reflections of Giorgio Agamben to consider the dynamics that unfolded during the Ethiopian famine of 1983–85 and to analyse the underlying conceptualisation behind the emergence of Band Aid‐type celebrity humanitarianism. The paper concludes with some wider thoughts on how the in essence antipolitical agenda of celebrity humanitarian action is transported into the everyday understanding of ‘African disaster’, resulting ultimately in the perpetuation of hegemonic control by the global North.     

先秦时期农业减灾救荒思想研究

我国先秦时期形成了较为系统的农业减灾救荒思想,它包含灾前预防思想、农业减灾思想和灾后救荒思想三大部分。中国古代的减灾和救荒两大思想体系由此成为有机整体,这在三代(夏、商、周时期)和春秋战国时期农业生产的转型发展过程中产生了积极的促进作用。研究这一时期的农业减灾救荒思想对于后世的防灾减灾极具借鉴意义。     

Getting the Scale Right: A Comparison of Analytical Methods for Vulnerability Assessment and Household-level Targeting

This paper introduces broad concepts of vulnerability, food security and famine. It argues that the concepts and theories driving development and implementation of vulnerability assessment tools are related to their utility. The review concludes that socio-geographic scale is a key issue, and challenge. It analyses three vulnerability assessment (VA) methods, using Ethiopia as a case study. Facing the challenges of vulnerability assessment and early warning requires providing accurate information at the required scale, useful for multiple decision-makers within realistic institutional capacities.     

New policy directions in disaster preparedness and response in ethiopia

Following the fall of the government of Mengistu Haile Mariam in May 1991, the Transitional Government of Ethiopia has initiated new policy directions in relation to national disaster preparedness and response. Drawing on the lessons learnt from more than a decade's experience of famine and famine relief work in the north of the country, policies are emerging from the reconstituted Relief and Rehabilitation Commission that represent a new agenda for the conduct of assistance programs. These changes have important implications for the relationship between the Transitional Government, international aid organizations and local communities.     

Interactions in hazard management policies: the case of drought in Nicaragua, 1976–2010

The literature on adaptive and multi‐level governance calls for interactive hazard management to increase societies’ resilience. This paper maps the hazard management policies in a poor and hazard‐prone country—Nicaragua—and examines what role the government gives to interactions among different actors at different societal levels. A new analytical framework is developed that includes scope and direction to capture unidirectional or mutual interactions that are either horizontal or vertical. This enables a more complex analysis of interactions than that found in previous research. The review shows that the historical change in the role given to interactions, as a result of a focus on short‐term emergency response being complemented by long‐term risk management, mainly lies in how they are characterised—with more participants and other types of content categories—and the awareness that interactions other than mutual ones can be positive. This illustrates the complexity of the issue of interactions.     

Desertification, refugees and regional conflict in west Africa

This article documents the potential for inter-state conflict in the migration of hundreds of thousands of famine refugees across international borders in West Africa. Nigeria and Ghana, for example, have to deal not only with the effects of land degradation in their northern territories but also with the influx of famine victims from Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkino Faso. These migrations put an enormous extra burden on the fragile and already overstretched social and economic infrastructures of the host countries. The construction of dams for irrigation and electricity generation in international river basins, is another cause of inter-state conflict related to land degradation. The capacity of West African states to find peaceful solutions to these problems is being undermined by the increasing impoverishment and marginalisation of their populations. A self-serving neo-colonialist governing elite is caught in the economic stranglehold of the advanced capitalist nations. While there is thus no short term solution to the problem of land degradation, immediate steps should at least be taken to give legal protection to those who are forced to cross international borders because of drought and famine.     

Selling displaced people? A multi‐method study of the public communication strategies of international refugee organisations

The world has seen a major increase in forced displacement since 2011. As a growing number of states implement restrictive refugee policies, public communication has become essential for refugee organisations. This study analysed, therefore, three international refugee organisations’ discursive strategies towards the recent Syrian crisis, as well as their production and the social context. A critical discourse analysis of international press releases (N=122) and six semi‐structured interviews with press and regional officers revealed that the observed actors largely dehumanise displaced people and subordinate them to the ‘Western self’ and state interests; displaced people hardly ever acquire their own voice. The study found that the medium characteristics of press releases and the importance of media attention result in a depersonalising humanitarian discourse. In addition, there were indications of a post‐humanitarian discourse that reproduced the humanitarian sector's ‘marketisation’. Finally, the examined organisations use the political realist cross‐issue persuasion strategy, displaying displaced people as resettlement objects.     

Historical Roots of Famine Relief Paradigms: Ideas on Dependency and Free Trade in India in the 1870s

The principles upon which famine policies are based have changed less than might be expected over the last century. This paper examines the origins of the Indian Famine Codes of the 1880s, which set the administrative and, it is argued, paradigmatic precedent for famine relief in 'developing' countries, managed by 'developed' ones. In particular, the still-current questions of avoiding the creation of dependency through over-generous aid and of relying on free-market solutions to the problems of food distribution are re-examined. Although both of these issues are difficult, it is suggested that strong emphasis on their importance has historically been based on wilful misinterpretation of complex situations. The result has been famine relief programmes which served the interests of 'relievers' (in this case the colonial state) more than the relieved. The nature of famine policy-making is thus reconsidered, with a call for greater appreciation of the role of influential individuals and hidden state agendas. These are as significant today as ever.     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

The Prevention and Mitigation of Famine: Policy Lessons from Botswana and Sudan

Botswana and Sudan experienced consecutive years of drought in the 1980s. Sudan faced a large decline in food entitlement and nutritional deterioration, which translated into famine in 1984/85. Botswana, on the other hand, nearly compensated income losses and averted nutritional deterioration and famine-related deaths. There are important lessons to learn from the famine prevention experience of Botswana. Its strategy for dealing with drought and famine combines policies of steady economic growth with supplementary poverty alleviation and drought relief programs. To provide continuity and stabilization of market operations in times of distress, the country channels sufficient food through market chains, provides price support to preempt market collapse and augments the income of consumers through public income transfer programs to prevent demand failure. In addition, it maintains a responsive and accountable political system and a decentralized participatory administrative structure. While Sudan should develop policies that are compatible with its own environment, it is crucial that it recognizes the critical role of public action in promoting growth, alleviating poverty, and providing timely relief responses in times of anticipated growth failure.     

National organizations and famine early warning the case of mali(1)

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa, the problems of drought and famine are sufficiently long term to justify the existence of permanent food security agencies. Yet donors are reluctant to fund these agencies when there is not a crisis, forcing poor countries to use their own resources for food security and famine early warning efforts. To make more effective use of limited resources and since the data needs for effective famine early warning are similar to those for basic rural development, information systems to provide data simultaneously for development projects and famine early warning should be developed and supported. In Mali, one of the larger and poorer countries of the West African Sahel, basic information systems which gather a range of appropriate data already exist, but there need to be improvements in the quality of design and the timeliness of analysis to make the information more useful for either development or famine early warning.     

Sources of organisational resiliency during the Thailand floods of 2011: a test of the bonding and bridging hypotheses

Based on the Institutional Collective Action framework, this research tests the impact of two competing hypotheses—bonding and bridging—on enhancing organisational resiliency. The bonding hypothesis posits that organisational resiliency can be achieved if an organisation works closely with others, whereas the bridging hypothesis argues that such a structure places considerable stress on an organisation and advocates for an organisation to position itself as a central actor to gain access to novel resources from a diverse set of entities to achieve resiliency. The paper analyses data gathered from semi‐structured interviews with 44 public, private, and non‐profit organisations serving communities affected by the Great Floods of 2011 in the Thai capital, Bangkok (urban), and in Pathum Thani (suburban) and Ayutthaya (rural) provinces. The findings suggest that: organisational resiliency was associated with the bridging effect; organisations in the rural province were more resilient than those in the suburban and urban centres; and private and non‐governmental organisations generally were more resilient than public sector organisations. The findings highlight the importance of fostering multi‐sector partnerships to enhance organisational resiliency for disaster response.     

The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya

The context of famine in Turkana has changed in recent years as the role played by livestock raiding in contributing to famine has increased. External responses to famine in Turkana have largely been drought driven, for example, food assistance and livestock restocking programmes, which have failed to meet the real needs of herders. The role of armed conflict in the form of raiding has been overlooked as a common feature of societies facing famine and food insecurity.The traditional livelihood-enhancing functions of livestock raiding are contrasted with the more predatory forms common today. The direct impact of raiding on livelihood security can be devastating, while the threat of raids and measures taken to cope with this uncertainty undermine herders' livelihood strategies. Self-imposed restrictions on mobility negatively affect the vegetation of both grazed and ungrazed pastures and restrict the available survival strategies. Predatory raiding leads to a collapse in the moral economy. Some implications of this for relief and development policy are considered, including approaches to conflict resolution.     

Reducing vulnerability to drought and famine: developmental approaches to relief

In this paper we present salient lessons learned through the International Relief/Development Project about the relationships between disasters and development. We discuss approaches to famine response and prevention, including the impact of global food distribution efforts on the capacities of people affected by famine and offer criteria for planning famine relief so that it will promote systemic, long term development of these capacities. We first describe a collaborative research project which showed that it is possible for international famine assistance either to promote the capacities of people who suffer from famine so that they are better able to handle future food crises, or to leave those it purports to help worse off and even more vulnerable to subsequent disasters. We then illustrate alternative strategies for promoting development in the midst of crisis by presenting information about a number of famine response programs and analyzing their impact on capacities and vulnerabilities.     

Livelihoods,conflict and aid programming: is the evidence base good enough?

In conflict‐affected situations, aid‐funded livelihood interventions are often tasked with a dual imperative: to generate material welfare benefits and to contribute to peacebuilding outcomes. There may be some logic to such a transformative agenda, but does the reality square with the rhetoric? Through a review of the effectiveness of a range of livelihood promotion interventions—from job creation to microfinance—this paper finds that high quality empirical evidence is hard to come by in conflict‐affected situations. Many evaluations appear to conflate outputs with impacts and numerous studies fail to include adequate information on their methodologies and datasets, making it difficult to appraise the reliability of their conclusions. Given the primary purpose of this literature—to provide policy guidance on effective ways to promote livelihoods—this silence is particularly concerning. As such, there is a strong case to be made for a restrained and nuanced handling of such interventions in conflict‐affected settings.     

The Food and Nutrition Surveillance Systems of Chad and Mali: The "SAP" After Two Years

The "Systèmes d'Alerte Précoce" - the SAPs - of Chad and Mali have been in operation since April 1986. Their purpose is to forecast (or more realistically, detect as early as possible) food shortages in the drought-prone areas of each country. They are based on a multidisciplinary strategy, taking into account all relevant phenomena, from meteorology to nutritional status, and are implemented through the governmental networks. The present experience shows that, compared with the devastations due to famine and the cost of emergency food aid, they are not that expensive and they seem sustainable over the long term.
"Faultless" prediction is not yet the rule, but several procedures permit progressive improvement in the ability of the systems to analyse and interpret.
This paper explains the functioning process of the SAPs and presents several operational results. Additionally, it covers innovative concepts that have proved to be successful, such as the "participative information network".