适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度。因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气体高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对“适应气候变化”却有所忽视。其实,对发展中国家《适应气候变化》才是当务之急。文章在前文“发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖”减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径。     

适应气候变化是当务之急

地球气候变化既有自然因素又有人为因素,全球变暖主要原因是人类活动温室气体排放过度.因此,在应对气候变化问题上,人们对减排温室气体高度重视是理所当然,而长期以来对＂适应气候变化＂却有所忽视.其实,对发展中国家〈适应气候变化〉才是当务之急.文章在前文＂发展低碳经济,应对全球变暖＂减排二氧化碳温室气体的基础上,论述适应气候变化的迫切性和基本途径.     

疾病传播的帮凶:全球气候变化

近年来，世界范围内的传染病分布区的扩展趋势引人关注，人们往往将原因归于抗生素类药品的广泛使用所导致的细菌抗药性、第三世界国家贫穷导致的营养不良和世界范围内空前规模的人口流动等因素。其实，还有一个重要的原因常常被人们忽视，那就是全球气候变暖这一诱因。     

全球气候变化的健康效应

温室气体的排放可以影响全球气体模式，气候变化通过温度相关的疾病、极端天气事件、生态系统紊乱、海平面上升等对人类健康构成直接或间接的威胁。     

中国适应气候变化的国家资金机制

人类应对气候变化通常有两方面的措施和行动：减缓和适应。减缓偏重于影响气候系统,阻碍变化进程和幅度;适应则是要控制气候变化的风险,减轻不利影响。目前,通过《京都议定书》的谈判、生效和执行,人类在减缓方面已经做了一定工作。然而,气候、生态和社会经济系统的惯性决定了即使全球21世纪的温室气体排放有实质性的减少。气候变暖及其不利影响仍将会持续数百年乃至上千年。这就给人类特别是发展中国家造成了极大的适应压力。     

全球气候变化

本文详细介绍了全球气候变化的原因以及针对此而成立的有关国际机构，并根据有关资料预测了未来全球气候变化的趋势。     

“适应气候变化”是发展中国家当务之急

在应对气候变化的问题上,人们长期以来对“减缓气候变化”高度关注,而对另一重要方面——“适应气候变化”却重视不够。2007年12月联合国气候变化大会通过的《巴厘行动计划》,将“适应气候变化”与“减缓气候变化”置于同等重要的位置。联合国环境规划署发布的《气候变化的影响和适应评估报告》,更是呼吁各国迅速采取行动适应气候变化,在制订经济发展计划时将适应气候变化问题纳入其中,易受气候变化影响的发展中国家和地区更该如此。     

美国提交首个针对联合国气候变化协议的计划

美国于5月5日对外发布言论称,将加入致力于应对气候变化的全球协议体系．并将制定雄心勃勃的目标,采取积极行动,应对温室气体排放带来的全球变暖问题。     

地球“高烧”无法避免

地球将持续“高烧”几十年，而人类对此束手无策，无论采取什么措施限制温室气体的排放也无济于事。这一悲观的结论是由最新一期《自然》杂志公布的，依据是两个科学小组开发的电脑模式；这两个模式联合起来，对未来数十年的气候变化做了迄今最详尽的预测。在上个世纪，地球平均温度上升了约0.7华氏度，这已经足够融化冰川、彻底打乱世界的降雨模式。多数气候预测模式显示，世界将持续热下去，但在这一预测中也有许多变数：如浮质(气体、液体中的悬浮微粒)的冷却效果，或者说火山的意外爆发。在不同的方法中，焦点问题是如何估计这些变数的…     

气候集团

气候集团是一家国际性的独立性非盈利组织,旨在减少温室气体排放、应对全球变暖问题,致力于提高商业组织和政府机构在对抗气候变化方面的领导能力,目前已在英国伦敦、美国纽约和奥克兰,以及澳大利亚墨尔本设立了办事机构。气候集团成立于2004年4月,当时即获得了英国首相布莱尔和来自北美、欧洲和澳大利亚的20位政治领袖和商业精英的支持。自成立之日起,集团充分利用美国、英国、德国、加拿大和澳大利亚的高级别活动,组建由企业和政府共同参与的联盟,着力通过媒体的广泛宣传和企业及政府的积极参与,将对抗气候变化引导至商业主流,并创造经济机会。     

Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

This article examines farmers’ livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing.     

Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology

Adaptation in agriculture to climate change is important for impact andvulnerability assessment and for the development of climate change policy. A wide variety of adaptation options has been proposed as having thepotential to reduce vulnerability of agricultural systems to risks related toclimate change, often in an ad hoc fashion. This paper develops atypology of adaptation to systematically classify and characterize agriculturaladaptation options to climate change, drawing primarily on the Canadiansituation. In particular, it differentiates adaptation options in agricultureaccording to the involvement of different agents (producers, industries,governments); the intent, timing and duration of employment of theadaptation; the form and type of the adaptive measure; and the relationshipto processes already in place to cope with risks associated with climatestresses. A synthesis of research on adaptation options in Canadianagriculture identifies four main categories: (i) technological developments,(ii) government programs and insurance, (iii) farm production practices,and (iv) farm financial management. In addition to these `directadaptations', there are options, particularly information provision, that maystimulate adaptation initiatives. The results reveal that most adaptationoptions are modifications to on-going farm practices and public policydecision-making processes with respect to a suite of changing climatic(including variability and extremes) and non-climatic conditions (political,economic and social). For progress on implementing adaptations to climatechange in agriculture there is a need to better understand the relationshipbetween potential adaptation options and existing farm-level andgovernment decision-making processes and risk management frameworks.     

Numerous experiments for the impact of warming climate on the phenology and grain yield of winter wheat

Based on the environmental and crop data at Zhenjiang City, in Jiangsu Province, middle east of China, the growing process of winter wheat was simulated by CERES-Wheat model assuming the daily average temperature is 1℃ to 2℃ higher than at the present, which are mostly possible for the change of climate because of enrichment of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The simulation results show that warming climate can promote development rate and shorten phenological stages of wheat, and the grain yield will be higher than present. Its impact on the kernel weight and grains per square meter were different for the plantings of various sowing dates. The results of this study suggest that substantial changes in agricultural production and management practices are needed to respond to the climatic changes expected to take place in China.     

Values,rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context

Responding to global change represents an unprecedented challenge for society. Decision makers tend to address this challenge by framing adaptation as a decision problem, whereby the responses to impacts of change are addressed within existing decision processes centred on defining the decision problem and selecting options. However, this ‘decision-making perspective’ is constrained by societal values and principles, regulations and norms and the state of knowledge. It is therefore unsuitable for addressing complex, contested, cross-scale problems. In this paper we argue that simply broadening the decision-making perspective to account for institutions and values is not enough. We contend the decision-making perspective needs to be connected with a broader ‘decision-context perspective’ that focuses on how the societal system of decision processes affects the manner in which a particular problem is addressed. We describe the decision context as an interconnected system of values, rules and knowledge (vrk). The interaction of systems of vrk both creates and limits the set of practical, permissible decisions; the types of values, rules and knowledge that influence the decision and the capacity for change and transformation in the decision context. We developed a framework to analyse the interactions between values, rules and knowledge and their influence on decision making and decision contexts of adaptation initiatives, and applied it retrospectively to three projects on adaptation to sea-level rise. Our analysis revealed: (1) specific examples of how interactions between vrk systems constrained existing framings of decision making and the development of options for coastal adaptation; (2) limitations in the adaptive management strategies that underpinned the projects and (3) how the linked systems of vrk can allow adaptation practitioners to structure adaptation as a process of co-evolutionary change that enables a broader set of social issues and change processes to be considered. Adaptation projects that focus on the decision context represent a pragmatic alternative to existing decision-focused adaptation. By using the vrk model to diagnose constraints in decision processes, we show how the reframing of adaptation initiatives can reveal new approaches to developing adaptation responses to complex global change problems.     

Response of gaseous carbon emissions to low-level salinity increase in tidal marsh ecosystem of the Min River estuary, southeastern China

Although estuarine tidal marshes are important contributors to the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the relationship between carbon dioxide(CO_2), methane(CH_4)emission, and environmental factors, with respect to estuarine marshes, has not been clarified thoroughly. This study investigated the crucial factors controlling the emission of CO_2 and CH_4from a freshwater marsh and a brackish marsh located in a subtropical estuary in southeastern China, as well as their magnitude. The duration of the study period was November 2013 to October 2014. Relevant to both the field and incubation experiments, the CO_2 and CH_4emissions from the two marshes showed pronounced seasonal variations. The CO_2 and CH_4emissions from both marshes demonstrated significant positive correlations with the air/soil temperature(p 0.01), but negative correlations with the soil electrical conductivity and the pore water/tide water Cl-and SO_4~(2-)(p 0.01). The results indicate no significant difference in the CO_2 emissions between the freshwater and brackish marshes in the subtropical estuary, whereas there was a difference in the CH_4 emissions between the two sites(p 0.01). Although future sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion could reduce the CH_4 emissions from the estuarine freshwater marshes, these factors had little effect on the CO_2 emissions with respect to an increase in salinity of less than 5‰. The findings of this study could have important implications for estimating the global warming contributions of estuarine marshes along differing salinity gradients.     

Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

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养殖户气候适应性行为对提高养殖业生产效率的影响

气候变化给当前中国农业生产转型带来严峻挑战,从效率视角分析农户适应气候变化行为具有重要意义。本文探讨养殖户气候适应性行为与养殖业生产效率之间的逻辑关系,并基于中国五省的微观调查数据,采用倾向得分匹配方法与选择纠偏随机前沿生产函数模型（Selectivity-corrected Stochastic Production Frontier model）相结合的实证思路,分析养殖户气候适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响。研究表明：（1）养殖户气候适应性行为能够提高养殖业生产效率,纠正可观测因素与不可观测因素造成的选择性偏差后,适应组养殖户平均养殖业生产效率为0.618,未适应组养殖户的平均养殖业生产效率为0.551。（2）若未考虑选择性偏差,养殖户适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响将会错估。研究成果可为推进政府制定农户适应气候变化政策与推动农业生产转型提供有力支持。     

胶东半岛湖泊面积对气候变化的响应

湖泊是陆地水圈的重要组成部分,不仅参与自然界水循环,而且具有提供水源、调节洪水、维持生态环境健康等功能,研究湖泊面积的动态变化特征,探讨湖泊面积动态对气候变化的响应对水资源的合理利用及生态环境保护具有重要的现实意义。以胶东半岛为研究区,基于1985—2017年的Landsat遥感影像数据为数据源,提取了胶东半岛近33年的湖泊面积和数量信息,揭示了胶东半岛湖泊水体面积变化特征及其对气候变化的响应关系。结果显示：1985—2017年,胶东半岛湖泊面积和湖泊数量均呈波动减少趋势,分别减少100.02 km²和79个。[0.01, 0.1) km²等级的湖泊面积表现为波动增加趋势,其他等级的湖泊面积均表现为波动减少趋势,≥10 km²等级的湖泊面积下降最明显。胶东半岛湖泊面积与降水呈正相关,显著水平均在0.05以上;湖泊面积与气温呈负相关,未达显著水平。胶东半岛影响湖泊面积突变的降水量阈值为626.9 mm左右。低于626.9 mm,湖泊面积随降水量减少而急剧下降;高于626.9 mm,湖泊面积随降水量增加而稳定增长。“引黄济青”工程对大型湖泊面积变化具有重要影响,且极大地缓解了烟威地区的旱情,对胶东半岛自然生态环境和社会经济的可持续发展发挥了重要作用。