Estimation of Critical Loads of Acidity for Lakes in Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada

The New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG/ECP) adopted the Acid Rain Action Plan in June 1998, and issued a series of action items to support its work toward a reduction of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions in northeastern North America. One of these action items was the preparation of an updated critical load map using data from lakes in the NEG/ECP area. Critical load maps provide a more complete index of the surface water sensitivity to acidification. Combined sulfur and nitrogen critical loads and deposition exceedances were computed using Henriksen's Steady-State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model. Results show that 28% of all 2053 lakes studied have a critical load of 20 kg/ha/year or less, making them vulnerable to acid deposition. Emission reductions, and more specifically SO₂ emission reductions have proven beneficial because critical loads were exceeded in 2002 for 12.3% of all studied lakes. Those lakes are located in the more sensitive areas where geology is carbonate-poor. Of these lakes, 2.9% will never recover even with a complete removal of SO₄ deposition. Recovery from acidification for the remaining 9.4% of the lakes will require additional emission SO₂ reductions.     

Dynamic Cost-Effective Reduction Strategies for Acidification in Europe: An Application to Ireland and the United Kingdom

This paper describes the application of an optimisation model for calculating cost-effective abatement strategies for the reduction of acidification in Europe while taking into account the dynamic character of soil acidification in a number of countries. Environmental constraints are defined in terms of soil quality indicators, e.g., pH, base saturation or the aluminium ion concentration in the soil solution within an optimisation model for transboundary air pollution.We present a case study for Ireland and the United Kingdom. Our results indicate that reduction of sulphur dioxide emission is more cost-effective than that of nitrogen oxides or ammonia. The reduction percentages for sulphur dioxide are highest, for two reasons: (i) marginal sulphur dioxide reduction costs are relatively low compared to marginal reduction costs of nitrogen oxides and ammonia and (ii) sulphur dioxide reduction is more effective in reducing acidification in physical terms than nitrogen oxides or ammonia abatement. Our dynamic analysis shows that a (fast) improvement of soil quality requires high emission reduction levels. These reduction levels are often higher than reduction levels that are typically deduced from the static critical loads approach. Once soil quality targets are reached, in our model, less stringent emission reductions are required to maintain the soil quality at a constant and good target level. Static critical load approaches that ignore dynamic aspects therefore may underestimate the emission reductions needed to achieve predefined soil quality targets.     

The role of secondary particulates in European emission abatement strategies

Economic assessments have indicated that the greatest benefits of reducing atmospheric emissions of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in Europe come from the resulting reductions in secondary particulate concentrations. For comparison with abatement strategies devised to reduce exceedance of critical loads for acidification, this paper, therefore, considers optimisation of emission abatement strategies to reduce secondary particulate concentrations and minimise human exposure. It is seen that this changes the relative emphasis between some countries in reducing their emissions, and also places less importance on emissions of ammonia from agriculture relative to those of SO₂ and NO_x. The effect of placing emphasis on improvement in the more highly polluted areas of Europe is also examined by imposing a threshold. The benefits of the strategies in terms of ecosystem protection and human exposure to particulates are presented for all scenarios studied. The scenarios are also interpreted in terms of a blame matrix for human exposure to secondary particulates.     

Passive ammonia monitoring in the United States: comparing three different sampling devices

The need for ambient gaseous ammonia (NH(3)) measurements has increased in the last decade as reactive NH(3) concentrations and deposition fluxes show little change even with tightening standards on nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions. Currently, there are several networks developing methods for adding NH(3) measurements in the U.S. Gaseous NH(3) measurements will provide scientists and policymakers data which can be used to estimate ecosystem inputs, validate air quality models including trends and regional variability, and evaluate changes to the environment based on additional emission reduction requirements and estimates of critical nitrogen load exceedances. The passive samplers described in this paper were deployed in duplicate or triplicate and collocated with annular denuders or continuous instruments to determine their accuracy. The samplers assessed included the Adapted Low-Cost Passive High Absorption (ALPHA), Radiello(?), and Ogawa passive samplers. The median relative percent differences (MRPD) between the reference method and passive samplers for the ALPHA, Radiello(?) and Ogawa were -2.4%, -37% and -44%, respectively. The precision between duplicate samplers for the ALPHA and Ogawa samplers, was 7% and 6%, respectively. Triplicate Radiello(?) precision was assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV). The CV for the Radiello(?) samplers was 10%. This article discusses the statistical results from these studies.     

Simulation and Evaluation of Control Strategies for Ozone Reduction in a Complex Terrain in Southwestern Spain

During the central months of the year, southwestern Spain is under strong insolation and weak synoptic forcing, promoting the development of sea breezes and mountain-induced winds and creating recirculations of pollutants. The complex topography of the Southwestern Iberia Peninsula induces the formation of vertical layers, into which the pollutants are injected and subjected to long-distance transport and compensatory subsidence. The characteristics of these highly complex flows have important effects on the pollutant dispersion. Air pollution studies in very complex terrains require high-resolution modelling for resolving the flow dynamics. This paper shows the results obtained from using the MM5-CAMx multiscale-nested air quality model to relate the sensitivity regimes for ozone, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in an area of high geographical complexity. The article assesses the impact on the hourly and eight-hourly maximum daily ozone concentrations of four reduction strategies during two ozone pollution episodes. This analysis of the ozone response has led to a preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness of the most common control strategies: traffic, industry, mixed traffic and industry, and closure of some of the largest industries (oil and petrochemical refineries). Photochemical indicators show that ozone chemistry in southwestern Spain is strongly sensitive to NO _x . However, volatile organic compound-sensitive points are found in areas with anthropogenic influence (highways, cities and industrial parks). Our results indicate that reductions in road traffic lead to ozone reductions over large areas, whereas reductions in industrial emissions, despite sometimes showing greater decreases in the maximum hourly and eight-hourly ground-level ozone levels, lead to ozone reductions in a local area only. In the control study case, with the oil refinery and the petrochemical plants closed, decreases in ozone hourly concentrations are up to 40% higher than in the other emission control scenarios studied. This analysis provides an assessment of the effectiveness of different policies for controlling precursor emissions by comparing the modelled results for different scenarios.     

On the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions: an application of FUND

This paper presents the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), an integrated assessment model of climate change, and discusses selected results. FUND is a nine‐region model of the world economy and its interactions with climate, running in time steps of one year from 1990 to 2200. The model consists of scenarios for economy and population, which are perturbed by climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. Each region optimizes its net present welfare. Policy variables are energy and carbon efficiency improvement, and sequestering carbon dioxide in forests. It is found that reducing conventional air pollution is a major reason to abate carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change is an additional reason to abate emissions. Reducing and changing energy use is preferred as an option over sequestering carbon. Under non‐cooperation, free riding as well as assurance behaviour is observed in the model. The scope for joint implementation is limited. Under cooperation, optimal emission abatement is (slightly) higher than under non‐cooperation, but the global coalition is not self‐enforcing while side payments are insufficient. Optimal emission control under non‐cooperation is less than currently discussed under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but higher than observed in practice. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Emissions from gas processing platforms to the atmosphere-case studies versus benchmarks

This study compares oil and gas industry benchmark non-methane volatile organic compounds emission data with predicted and reported emissions from a number of recent case studies. Specifically, we contrast predicted emissions from the Tamar and Leviathan processing platforms in the Eastern Mediterranean with actual emissions where available, and with a compilation of industry benchmarks. This work reveals a series of flaws in the adopted EIA practices in the case studies discussed, starting from the emissions model that grossly underestimates intermittent NMVOC and benzene emissions relative to available data from other sites, and the unrealistic assumption of a constant and uniform emission profile in contrast to real world emission scenarios that are characterized by discrete large emission events. Furthermore, the dispersion model used in the EIAs as part of the request for a business (emissions) permit has a number of significant failings, including the use of an unsuitable model, use of over-simplistic meteorological inputs, and lack of consideration of critical dispersion phenomena. This study highlights the need to rethink the currently used environmental impact assessment and atmospheric permit request methodologies in the oil and gas industry, which rely on unrealistic uniform emission models.     

基于地基监测的人为源温室气体排放通量反演研究进展

不同尺度下温室气体的空间分布及变化趋势是研究气候变化的基础,也是评估相关减排政策实施效果的重要依据。当前碳排放核算主要基于排放清单,不确定性较大。基于监测数据的碳排放核算能够有效评估和修正排放清单结果,是对当前方法的有效补充。国内温室气体的监测主要针对污染源和环境浓度,对于人为源温室气体排放通量的监测研究较少。该文分析了近年来国内外基于地基监测的人为源温室气体排放通量研究,主要的研究方法可分为2类:柱浓度空间分布结合三维风场数据反演排放通量;结合实测体积分数、大气扩散模型和统计优化模型修正先验排放通量结果,以获取更准确的后验排放通量。通过分析和对比2种方法的优势和局限,讨论不同通量反演方法的适用场景。建议我国未来应构建适用于不同空间尺度的温室气体通量监测反演体系,综合利用多种监测手段,以校核验证排放清单,并为制定温室气体减排策略和评估应对气候变化工作成效提供技术支撑。     

基于环境库兹涅茨曲线特征的桂林市大气环境状况研究

根据2006年-2012年桂林市经济发展主要指标和大气环境污染指标的统计资料,分析了该市人均 GDP 与SO2、NO x、烟（粉）尘排放量及 PM10质量浓度和 API优良率等大气环境指标的相关关系,建立了经济发展与大气环境指标之间的模拟曲线。模拟结果表明,桂林市处于工业时期,随着人均GDP增加,SO2和烟（粉）尘排放得到了一定程度的缓解,而NO x 和 PM10排放从长期看还处于上升趋势。建议改善能源结构,调整产业结构和工业布局,制定财税激励政策,开展环境综合整治,加大机动车排污防治力度,进一步控制大气污染。     

Meat,Dairy and Climate Change: Assessing the Long-Term Mitigation Potential of Alternative Agri-Food Consumption Patterns in Canada

We use a newly developed model of the entire Canadian energy system (TIMES-Canada) to assess the climate change mitigation potential of different agri-food consumption patterns in Canada. For this, our model has been extended by disaggregating the agricultural demand sector into individual agri-food demands to allow for a more in-depth analysis. Besides a business-as-usual (baseline) scenario, we have constructed four different agri-food scenarios to assess the viability of reducing Canadian meat and dairy consumption in order to diminish Canada’s agricultural sector energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Our policy scenarios progressively restrict the consumption of different meat and dairy agricultural products until the year 2030. Our results suggest that the implementation of a meat and dairy consumption reduction policy would lead to a 10 to 40 % reduction in agricultural GHG emissions, depending on the severity of the scenario. This translates to a 1 to 3 % decrease in total Canadian GHG emissions by the year 2030. Besides these environmental benefits, health benefits associated with a reduction in meat and dairy consumption (as inferred from other studies) are presented as an additional source of motivation for implementing such a policy in Canada.     

Examining the uncertainty of carbon emission changes: A systematic approach based on peak simulation and resilience assessment

Efforts to achieve carbon peak is one of the Chinese government's commitments, but the diversity of future development paths leads to the uncertainty of carbon emissions. Based on the carbon peak simulation, this study develops a framework to assess the carbon emission uncertainty, aiming to explore the potential low-carbon paths. The STIRPAT model is firstly introduced to explore the influence of population, economic and technology factors on carbon emissions, which is followed by emission peaks simulation. The resilience theory is then introduced to define the concept of low-carbon resilience (LCR), which refers to the ability to maintain a low level of carbon emissions. The uncertainty of carbon emission changes between different scenarios is identified by considering peaking time, cumulative increase and mitigation process. This study taking 10 Chinese coastal provinces as an example, and results show that all provinces can achieve the target of carbon emission peak in low-emissions scenario, the cumulative growth of carbon emissions is low and can be mitigated over a relatively short term, showing a strong LCR. In high-emissions scenario, Liaoning, Tianjin, Fujian and Guangxi may not have a peak before 2050, the uncertainty of carbon emission changes is relatively high, while Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Guangdong show relatively low uncertainty for the clear peaking time. The study also designs intermediate scenario to reduce the uncertainty of carbon emission changes to provide reference for each province's emission reduction path. These findings help to understand carbon uncertainty to reduce the risk of increasing cumulative emissions under the scenario of only focusing on peaking times, and provide a basis for future carbon resilience and sustainable emission reduction policies.     

Assessment of Air Quality, Emissions and Management in a Local Urban Environment

This paper describes one example of how the UK National Air Quality Strategy (NAQS) is implemented in a local urban environment. The paper reviews the beginning of this process, by examining the review and assessment procedures of the NAQS in the London Borough of Barnet. By the application of available UK tools of local air quality management (LAQM), the process began through analysis of the levels of local emissions and progressed onto modelling of current and future air quality. A map showing combined emission hotspot areas for the Borough indicated and higher emission rates occur in the south of the Borough and along the major transport corridors, as road sources dominate emissions. Dispersion modelling studies were also conducted for this purpose, using the screening models GRAM, PGRAM and ADMS Urban for an in-depth assessment. These analyses found that some local point sources and the majority of Borough roads with over 20,000 vehicles per day produced exceedances of the future objectives for air quality for some pollutants.Recommendations for the progression of LAQM in the Borough are made and include the update and expansion of the emissions information held for use in future modelling studies. The paper demonstrates the experience of implementing the Strategy, using the tools and procedures available for this purpose, in a local urban environment that is similar to many in the UK.     

Emission Inventory for an Industrial Area of India

The paper presents an emission inventory for Cochin, which is a highly industrialized area situated in the southern part of India. A proper emission inventory is very important for planning pollution control programmes, particularly in coastal sites like Cochin, where environmental situations are of growing concern owing to their typical meterorological conditions. In a systematic way the sources are broadly classified as point, line and area sources. The data on emissions from industries, fuel consumption for vehicular and domestic activities along with the respective emission factors are used for estimating the emissions. The study reveals that industrial sources are mainly responsible for emissions of particulate matter, oxides of sulphur and ammonia in the region. Automobiles are the prime sources of hydrocarbons, oxides of nitrogen and carbon monoxide emitting 95%, 77% and 70% respectively of their total emissions, while the contribution from domestic sources is not very significant.     

南京市黄标车污染现状与管理对策

以南京市为例,依托机动车环保监管数据库,根据国家机动车排放模型CVEM计算出黄标车主要污染物一氧化碳、碳氢化合物、氮氧化物及颗粒物的年排放量,并系统回顾了近年来为控制黄标车污染所采取的区域限行、淘汰奖补和治理改造等针对性管理措施,分析了政策实施的进展及成效,进一步明确了黄标车治理的必要性。     

Estimating transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative countries: An integrated approach of modified three-stage epsilon-based measurement model

Transportation systems are vital links for intercountry. However, the transportation industry is associated with high energy consumption and carbon emissions. In this paper, the transportation carbon efficiency (TCE) across the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries during 2005–2017 is estimated by modifying a three-stage epsilon-based measurement model, and the carbon emission reduction potential (CERP) is identified. Based on the results, countries are classified into four categories by comparing a country's TCE and CERP with the average of all BRI countries. The results show that the average TCE of BRI countries is only 0.341, while their average CERP is 0.750, which is tremendous. It also shows that the higher the income levels, the more prone countries are to have a higher TCE. By considering the differences among the countries' environmental factors, TCEs, and the current state or trends of the CERPs, customized low-carbon policies are proposed to increase the TCE and reduce emissions.     

An Evaluation of Microscopic Emission Models for Traffic Pollution Simulation Using On-board Measurement

As a result of the continuously increasing numbers of motor vehicles in metropolitan areas worldwide, road traffic emission levels have been recognized as a challenge during the planning and management of transportation. Experiments were conducted to collect on-road emission data using portable emission measurement systems in two Chinese cities in order to estimate real traffic emissions and energy consumption levels and to build computational models for operational transport environment projects. In total, dynamic pollutant emissions and fuel consumption levels from dozens of light duty vehicles, primarily from four different vehicle classes, were measured at a second-by-second level. Using the collected data, several microscopic emission models including CMEM, VT-Micro, EMIT, and POLY were evaluated and compared through calibration and validation procedures. Non-linear optimization methods are applied for the calibration of the CMEM and EMIT models. Numerical results show that the models can realize performance levels close to the CMEM model in most cases. The VT-Micro model shows advantages in its unanimous performance and ability to describe low emission profiles while the EMIT model has a clear physics basis and a simple model structure. Both of them can be applied when extensive emission computation is required in estimating environmental impacts resulting from dynamic road traffic.     

典型燃煤电厂机组二氧化碳排放测试及核算研究

为验证二氧化碳排放量的测试技术适用性及可行性,获取燃煤电厂机组碳排放特征,系统比较不同测试方法之间碳排放量的差异,对某典型火电机组二氧化碳排放开展测试,结果表明,不同测试原理及设备二氧化碳排放实测体积分数均较为接近。测试机组CO₂实测体积分数为11.28%～14.21%,与负荷变化呈一定的正相关关系,不同负荷下基准氧含量(体积分数6%)基本无变化。测试机组排放量与负荷正相关,使用了缺省值的指南排放量最高,与其他方法排放量相对偏差均值为31.6%;使用入炉煤实测数据的指南排放量差异不大,相对偏差为0.1%;使用入炉煤实测数据的2版指南排放量高于直接测量法,相对偏差均值为4.9%;直接测量各类方法间相对偏差均值为1.0%,其中在线法与手工法间相对偏差均值为1.2%。CO₂排放强度与负荷负相关,实验条件下,机组负荷越高,碳排放强度越低。     

Changes in Nutrient Emissions, Fluxes and Retention in a North-Eastern European Lowland Drainage Basin

Despite dramatic reductions in the 1990s of N and P emissions in the drainage basin, Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe (Estonia/Russia) is still suffering from algal blooms, probably caused by low N:P ratios of the lake water. To quantify the sources and changes of N and P inputs to the lake as a result of economic changes, we modelled emissions, transfer and in-stream retention using a GIS model. The model was calibrated using river monitoring data from the 1985–1989 period, and used to simulate emissions and loads for five future scenarios for 2015–2019. During the 1985–1999 period, diffuse P emissions decreased relatively more than N diffuse emissions, but this was not reflected in the loads to the lake. P loads decreased relatively less than N loads, which caused a decrease in the N:P ratio of the rivers. About 30–45% of diffuse N emissions and only 3–10% of diffuse P emissions reaches the river network. In-stream retention reduces N and P loads to the lake by about 62% and 72%, respectively. Point sources contribute negligibly to the N load to the lake, but form about one-third of the P load. A target/fast development scenario is the most likely scenario for the 2015–2019 period, resulting in higher nutrient loads than in recent years. We conclude that effective load reductions can be achieved by focussing on diffuse N and P emissions close ( < 50 km²) to the lake and by upgrading P removal capacity in wastewater treatment plants of towns.     

Fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) levels during dry weather from Southern California reference streams

High levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in surface waters is a common problem in urban areas that often leads to impairment of beneficial uses such as swimming. Once impaired, common management and regulatory solutions include development of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) and other water quality management plans. A critical element of these plans is establishment of a "reference" level of exceedances against which to assess management goals and TMDL compliance. The goal of this study was to provide information on indicator bacteria contributions from natural streams in undeveloped catchments throughout southern California during dry weather, non-storm conditions. To help establish a regional reference data set, bacteria levels [i.e. Escherichia coli (E. coli), enterococci and total coliforms] were measured from 15 unimpaired streams in 11 southern California watersheds weekly for one full year. Concentrations measured from reference areas were typically between one to two orders of magnitude lower than levels found in developed watersheds. Nearly 82% of the time, samples did not exceed daily and monthly bacterial indicator thresholds. E. coli had the lowest daily percent exceedance (1.5%). A total of 13.7% of enterococci exceeded daily thresholds. Indicator bacteria levels fluctuated seasonally with an average of 79% of both enterococci and total coliforms exceedances occurring during summer months (June to August). Temperature, at all sites, explained about one-half the variation in total coliforms density suggesting that stream temperatures regulated bacterial populations. Accounting for natural background levels will allow for management targets that are more reflective of the contributions from natural sources.     

Simulation of Urban-Scale Air Pollution Patterns in Luxembourg: Contributing Sources and Emission Scenarios

The aim of this study is to investigate the air pollution situation in an urban area in southwestern Luxembourg and to simulate annual NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations in response to changes in meteorological conditions and emissions using a Gaussian dispersion model. Simulations are carried out for the years 1998–2006. Emission scenarios related to road transport and nonindustrial combustion are performed in order to predict changes of air pollution levels. Road transport is by far the most important local emission source in the study area. Scenarios with more stringent emission standards for vehicles, less traffic, and fewer heavy-duty vehicles lead to reductions of NO_x and primary PM₁₀ emissions. As a result, the annual NO₂ concentrations are decreasing in most parts of the study area and are below the European annual limit value of 40 μg?m^?3. In contrast, a scenario with increased use of wood pellets for domestic heating shows an increase in urban PM₁₀ concentration. The year-to-year variability of meteorological conditions accounts for the same magnitude of absolute NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentration changes as the emission scenarios. The comparison with measurements located in the study area shows that the model is able to predict urban-scale annual average air pollution. The proposed application results show that the model can be appropriate for policy-driven air quality management and planning queries.