Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems1

Altaweel, Mark R., Lilian N. Alessa, and Andrew D. Kliskey, 2009. Forecasting Resilience in Arctic Societies: Creating Tools for Assessing Social–Hydrological Systems. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1379‐1389. Abstract: Arctic communities are increasingly faced with social–ecological changes that act at variable speeds and spatial scales. Such changes will affect vital resources, particularly water supplies. Currently, there are few computational tools that integrate multiple social and environmental processes in order to aid communities’ adaptation to change through decision support systems. This paper proposes a modeling and simulation approach that can integrate such processes at different spatiotemporal scales in order to address issues affecting community water supplies. In this paper, a modeling and simulation tool is developed and applied to a case study on the Seward Peninsula. Initial results, using both field observations and computation, show projected patterns of water use, perceptions of water availability, and long‐term consumption trends. More broadly, the paper demonstrates the need for developing tools that address issues at the community level for better understanding human and hydrological interactions and policy decisions affecting water supplies.     

Environmental Evaluation of Subdivision Site Developments

An environmental evaluation was performed at 16 subdivision sites within four communities in east-central Michigan. The primary objective was to evaluate the fit between environmental ordinances and the physical/environmental conditions to which they were applied. An environmental response index was developed with indicators to assess water, soil, slope, development density, roads, vegetation, and ecology. Water-related indicators achieved the highest scores, while soil-related indicators scored the poorest, with generally poor performance across all indicators. The poor performance indicates there are problems in the ability of environmental ordinances developed at broader jurisdictional scales (e.g., the state) to address the existing environmental conditions at smaller geographic scales (subdivisions within communities). Two key problems include the lack of scientific specificity in the broader state-level ordinances and the lack of local expertise and/or resources to monitor the environment.     

Environmental evaluation of subdivision site developments

An environmental evaluation was performed at 16 subdivision sites within four communities in east-central Michigan. The primary objective was to evaluate the fit between environmental ordinances and the physical/environmental conditions to which they were applied. An environmental response index was developed with indicators to assess water, soil, slope, development density, roads, vegetation, and ecology. Water-related indicators achieved the highest scores, while soil-related indicators scored the poorest, with generally poor performance across all indicators. The poor performance indicates there are problems in the ability of environmental ordinances developed at broader jurisdictional scales (e.g., the state) to address the existing environmental conditions at smaller geographic scales (subdivisions within communities). Two key problems include the lack of scientific specificity in the broader state-level ordinances and the lack of local expertise and/or resources to monitor the environment.     

Developing adaptive capacity within groundwater abstraction management systems

Groundwater is a key resource for global agricultural production but is vulnerable to a changing climate. Given significant uncertainty about future impacts, bottom-up approaches for developing adaptive capacity are a more appropriate paradigm than seeking optimal adaptation strategies that assume a high ability to predict future risks or outcomes. This paper analyses the groundwater management practices adopted at multiple scales in East Anglia, UK, to identify wider lessons for developing adaptive capacity within groundwater management. Key elements are (1) horizontal and vertical integration within resource management; (2) making better use of water resources, at all scales, which vary in space and time; (3) embedding adaptation at multiple scales (from farm to national) within an adaptive management framework which allows strategies and management decisions to be updated in the light of changing understanding or conditions; (4) facilitating the ongoing formation through collective action of local Water Abstractor Groups; (5) promoting efficient use of scarce water resources by these groups, so as to increase their power to negotiate over possible short-term license restrictions; (6) controlling abstractions within a sustainable resource management framework, whether at national (regulatory) or at local (Abstractor Group) scales, that takes account of environmental water needs; and (7) reducing non-climate pressures which have the potential to further reduce the availability of usable groundwater.     

ADAPTING THE LAW OF WATER MANAGEMENT TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND OTHER HYDROPOLITICAL STRESSES1

ABSTRACT: Existing legal regimes for the management of water resources are already stressed by changing technologies and growing populations. There is little reason for doubt that today the planet is undergoing significant and even alarming climate change. In the past such global climatic changes had dramatic effects on water resource availability with disastrous consequences for many human communities. Today's climate changes can be managed without such disastrous consequences for present day communities only if there are major reforms to existing water law regimes at the local, national, and international levels. In particular, at the local and national levels, water resources must be treated as public property rather than as common or private property. At the international level, water must be managed at the drainage basin level rather than according to national boundaries that largely ignore rational water management criteria. At all levels, care must be given to decentralizing decision making and to use economic incentives insofar as possible, without, however, mistaking economic incentives for markets. The public nature of water resources precludes true markets as a significant management tool.     

Arctic Climate Impacts: Environmental Injustice in Canada and the United States

The current and projected future physical impacts of climate change are most extreme in the northern latitudes. The indigenous peoples in the North American arctic and sub-arctic rely on the availability of natural resources in mixed subsistence economies for nutritional and cultural survival and thus experience disproportionate burdens with respect to our changing climate. Arctic climate impacts exemplify how global phenomena and activities can significantly affect people locally in remote regions. These impacts are largely consistent throughout the region, irrespective of national boarders; however, indigenous peoples in Canada are better positioned than those in the United States to shape policy in a way that would ensure their adaptation to climate change. Political and industrial activity on national and global scales can have significant environmental, social and cultural repercussions on the local scale in remote areas. Remedies for environmental injustice will thus require strong cross-scale political and institutional linkages.     

Indicator-Based Approach for Assessing the Vulnerability of Freshwater Resources in the Bagmati River Basin,Nepal

To assess the vulnerability of water resources in the Bagmati River Basin in Nepal, this paper adopts an indicator-based approach wherein vulnerability is expressed as a function of water stress and adaptive capacity. Water stress encompasses indicators of water resources variation, scarcity, and exploitation and water pollution, whereas adaptive capacity covers indicators of natural, physical, human resource, and economic capacities. Based on the evaluation of eleven indicators, which were aggregated into eight vulnerability parameters, an increasingly stressful situation and lack of adaptive capacity became evident. Considerable spatial variation in indicator values suggests differential policy options. While the northern parts need attention to reduce pollution loading and conserve vegetation cover, the southern parts need improvements in physical capacity, i.e. water infrastructures. The comprehensive and easily interpretable findings of the study are expected to help decision makers reach sound solutions to reduce freshwater resources vulnerability in the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. With its inherent flexibility, the approach has demonstrated its potential for application in different times and areas for monitoring and comparison purposes.     

Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests1

Alessa, Lilian, Mark Altaweel, Andrew Kliskey, Christopher Bone, William Schnabel, and Kalb Stevenson, 2011. Alaska’s Freshwater Resources: Issues Affecting Local and International Interests. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):143‐157. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00498.x Abstract: The State of Alaska faces a broad range of freshwater challenges including limited resource access in rural communities, increasing freshwater use, and a pressing need to better understand and prepare for climate‐driven change. Despite these significant issues, Alaska is relatively water‐rich and far more equipped to address its water resource concerns compared with other regions of the world. Globally, simultaneous and rapid water stresses have influenced and complicated conflicts and are motivating nations to develop markets and trade as one of the primary means to manage their needs for this resource. This paper presents these interacting issues in the context of Alaska’s relationship with a world undergoing significant social and ecological changes that affect freshwater supplies. We present the challenges faced by Alaska in the context of a larger global perspective, and briefly explore the relative effects these issues have on local, regional, and global scales. We present the argument that Alaska needs to develop more robust institutions and policies that can alleviate both household concerns and ensure that Alaska plays a significant role in the international freshwater arena for its long‐term resilience.     

Adaptive capacity for climate change in Canadian rural communities

It is widely acknowledged that promoting the long-term sustainability of rural areas requires an assessment of their capacity to handle stress from a host of external and internal factors such as resource depletion, global trading agreements, service reductions and changing demographics, to name but some. The sustainability literature includes a number of approaches for conducting capacity evaluations but is sparse regarding effective methods and empirical examples. This article provides one approach for assessing community capacity and gives results from its application to a specific Canadian rural community. The authors use general capacity variables and indicators to focus on a particular stress, namely impacts from climate change, and on one type of capacity, namely the capacity to adapt (to such climatic change). A basic framework and profiling tool ('amoeba') for describing the resources underlying community adaptive capacity are offered. The researchers provide a set of indicators reflecting social, human, institutional, natural and economic resources and relate them to climate change adaptation at the community level. Although the indicators cannot be replicated exactly for other rural communities, the essentials of the framework and the profiling tool can. In fact it is hoped that the ideas and example found in this article will encourage researchers to enhance and improve on the methods and results for work on community capacity.     

Adaptive capacity for climate change in Canadian rural communities

Abstract

It is widely acknowledged that promoting the long-term sustainability of rural areas requires an assessment of their capacity to handle stress from a host of external and internal factors such as resource depletion, global trading agreements, service reductions and changing demographics, to name but some. The sustainability literature includes a number of approaches for conducting capacity evaluations but is sparse regarding effective methods and empirical examples. This article provides one approach for assessing community capacity and gives results from its application to a specific Canadian rural community. The authors use general capacity variables and indicators to focus on a particular stress, namely impacts from climate change, and on one type of capacity, namely the capacity to adapt (to such climatic change). A basic framework and profiling tool (‘amoeba’) for describing the resources underlying community adaptive capacity are offered. The researchers provide a set of indicators reflecting social, human, institutional, natural and economic resources and relate them to climate change adaptation at the community level. Although the indicators cannot be replicated exactly for other rural communities, the essentials of the framework and the profiling tool can. In fact it is hoped that the ideas and example found in this article will encourage researchers to enhance and improve on the methods and results for work on community capacity.     

Natural Resource Management at Four Social Scales: Psychological Type Matters

Understanding organisation at different social scales is crucial to learning how social processes play a role in sustainable natural resource management. Research has neglected the potential role that individual personality plays in decision making in natural resource management. In the past two decades natural resource management across rural Australia has increasingly come under the direct influence of voluntary participatory groups, such as Catchment Management Authorities. The greater complexity of relationships among all stakeholders is a serious management challenge when attempting to align their differing aspirations and values at four social institutional scales—local, regional, state and national. This is an exploratory study on the psychological composition of groups of stakeholders at the four social scales in natural resource management in Australia. This article uses the theory of temperaments and the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI^®) to investigate the distribution of personality types. The distribution of personality types in decision-making roles in natural resource management was markedly different from the Australian Archive sample. Trends in personality were found across social scales with Stabilizer temperament more common at the local scale and Theorist temperament more common at the national scale. Greater similarity was found at the state and national scales. Two temperaments comprised between 76 and 90% of participants at the local and regional scales, the common temperament type was Stabilizer. The dissimilarity was Improviser (40%) at the local scale and Theorist (29%) at the regional scale. Implications for increasing participation and bridging the gap between community and government are discussed.     

Planning for change and sustainability in water development in Lao PDR and the Mekong River basin

With its recent opening to the global market economy, the natural resources of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR, referred to in this paper as Laos) – especially its water resources–have attracted external interest and investment. The overall level of water development is low. While even modest development would help Laos meet some of its urgent needs, past experience in Southeast Asia and other tropical regions suggests that fast-paced water development may damage the natural resource base. This article examines some efforts in water development from Southeast Asia and other regions and their relevance to water policy formulation in Laos. Future social and environmental changes in Laos are inevitable, but the nature and direction of these changes are uncertain. It thus makes sense to design policies that are flexible and can be adjusted to, and even take advantage of, a changing social and environmental context. Smaller-scale, deliberately-paced projects which merge local knowledge and external expertise fulfil the requirements of flexibility and adjustability, and are also appropriate for other important reasons: they do not require massive inputs of funding, and they do not initiate large-scale environmental and socio-economic changes. Current knowledge of the complex ecological and social systems in Laos is only sketchy. A slower-paced development will allow developers the necessary time to learn more about these important aspects.     

Real-time irrigation diversion data delivery can benefit adaptive capacity in communal irrigation systems

There is a need to support applied, community-relevant hydrologic research within changing climate, population, and socioeconomic conditions to better inform water policy and management. We hypothesized that providing a rural agricultural community in a semiarid valley with the necessary monitoring tool to meet local water management needs would increase adaptive capacity within the context of long-term drought. Through a community science approach, researchers installed a telemetry monitoring system at participating acequia irrigation diversions that remotely sent water data to a web interface every 15 min. Two surveys distributed before and after web interface access targeted seven adaptive capacity indicators. After the first season of improved data accessibility, the following adaptive capacity indicators significantly increased: information diversity, cognitive social capital, leadership, and proactivity. Rather than focusing on the water savings aspect of real-time monitoring, this paper summarizes a novel water resources study that assessed the social impact of real-time irrigation water delivery monitoring on adaptive capacity. This study suggests that bridging the gap between community need and hydrologic research through community science, sociologic analysis, and stakeholder engagement provides significant benefits for communities facing water management challenges, further supporting problem-driven water resources research.     

基于 SEEA 的自然资源资产核算指标的国际比较

本文从实物型、价值型自然资源资产账户及自然资源资产流量账户三方面对参照环境经济综合核算体系(SEEA)开展自然资源和环境经济核算的海外典型国家的核算指标进行比较分析,为编制我国自然资源资产核算框架提供参考借鉴。从五个典型国家的实践上看,各国的自然资源资产核算体系趋向与国民经济核算相对接;核算资源类别注重资源对社会经济的贡献度、资源数据可获得性以及资源核算的难易程度;核算账户及指标设置突出统计的实现,缺乏核算分析。基于此,本文提出,我国在开展自然资源资产核算时可借鉴国民经济核算的做法及已出台的各类资源分类标准,编制分类与综合资源核算账户、全国与地区专项资源核算账户;突出设置资源变化类指标,注重核算资源的流;探索编制自然资源资产生态账户,考虑实现资源核算指标与负债表指标的衔接,为自然资源资产负债表编制提供信息。     

MANAGING THE NATION'S WATER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE1

ABSTRACT: Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydro-logical events.     

The common property resource problem and the fisheries of Barbados and Jamaica

Common property resources (CPR) tend to be particularly susceptible to depletion and degredation. This creates problems for sustainable development and for resource stewardship in general since many of the key global resources are common property. The article explores the different definitions of CPR and the traps associated with the harvesting of CPR without understanding the social, economic, and environmental costs related to their exploitation. The commons problem may be approached in terms of a private property solution, the allocation of individual quotas to fishermen, or a communal property solution in which communities of fishermen basically manage their own fisheries. The offshore fishery of Barbados lends itself to the private property solution, and the inshore fishery of Jamaica, to the communal property solution.Drawing from case studies of Jamaica and Barbados fisheries, four principles of CPR use are proposed: (a) the solution of the CPR problem starts with the control of access to the resource, (b) increasing production from a CPR depends on the conservation of the resource base, (c) the sustainable utilization of a CPR is closely connected to the use of technology appropriate for the harvest, and (d) local-level management improves prospects for the sustainable use of a CPR. The case studies illustrate that there may be local, national, and international levels of interest over the resource. Hence, the successful management of such resources as Barbados and Jamaica fisheries requires that conflicting demands for the resources be taken into account, perhaps using a cooperative management approach.     

RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

Application of a Physical Input–Output Table to Evaluate the Development and Sustainability of Continental Water Resources in Spain

Continental waters are complex resources in terms of a measurable physical quantity, and measuring them requires a good knowledge of total water availability. In this research, an accounting physical input–output table (PIOT) was applied to evaluate total water resources and gross annual availabilities at each stage of the natural-artificial water cycle. These stages are considered subsystems of a continental water resource system describing water transfers for an average year within 13 administrative basins of Spain. Water transfers between various subsystems are characterized by internal flows decreasing the water resource availabilities. The PIOT analysis establishes these internal flows, and the origins and final uses of the total resources for each subsystem. The input-output balance registered an unsustainable negative net accumulation in eight water basins. The PIOT analysis also allowed the calculation of significant indicators such as water resource developments (RDI) and their sustainable use (SUI). RDI and SUI demonstrate that groundwater is a critical resource affecting the environment (e.g., wetlands in the upper Guadiana) and the water supply (e.g., irrigation in the Segura basin). The results of this model suggest that above-/below-ground hydrological links are important when decisions have to be made in order to provide a satisfactory supply of water in Spain. The model integrates the different water basins under territorial criteria, and therefore it may be useful for the Spanish National Hydrological Plan.     

Formulation of resource depletion index

A resource depletion index can serve as a quantitative tool to evaluate the level of depletion for natural resources. This study introduces two types of resource depletion indices, the global resource depletion index and the local resource depletion index. Global resource depletion index mainly concerns global reserves and the annual consumption rate of these resources. The local resource depletion index not only considers global reserves and their annual consumption rate, but also considers the local factors such as local reserves, local recycling rates, and local resource import characteristics. This study considers the local resource characteristics of Taiwan and develops calculations for local resource depletion indexes for the resources of cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, copper, aluminum, lead and zinc.