From IBM to IPM: Using individual-based models to design the spatial arrangement of traps and crops in integrated pest management strategies

The development of alternative pest-control strategies based on the spatial design of cropping systems requires a thorough understanding of the spatial links between the pest and its environment. Mechanistic models, especially individual-based models (IBMs), are powerful tools for integrating key behaviours, such as habitat selection and dispersal, with spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, we used an IBM calibrated and evaluated from real data to represent the spatial dynamics of the banana weevil in relation to the cropping system. We considered crop fragmentation and mass trapping as tools for suppressing pest numbers. Our simulation results showed that manipulating crop residues in the area surrounding each pheromone trap greatly improved trap efficiency. For an intensive banana plantation in fallow, traps were most effective when situated at the transition zone between banana area and fallow so as to maximize the trapping of weevils escaping the fallow. The model also showed that weevil numbers decreased when fragmentation of banana plantations was reduced.     

Tactics for resistance management using multiple pesticides

One option for controlling the spread of pesticide resistance is the coordinated use of two or more pesticides. However, strategies using two pesticides are necessarily more diverse than those using a single pesticide, and inept application may result in resistance to both pesticides in the time when a single resistance would have arisen if a single pesticide had been used.This paper uses simple genetic models to assess the relative effectiveness of different multiple-pesticide application strategies. It is concluded that there are two basic advantages of multiple-pesticide attack: increased back selection and “redundant killing”. Back selection may be enhanced by any of the basic multiple attack strategies. Redundant killing is more effective if the dosages of the two pesticides are highly positively correlated (such that if a pest individual receives a higher dose of one pesticide than the population average, then it is likely to have received a higher than average dose of the second pesticide as well). Some limitations on redundant killing are discussed; these result from the selection of doubly-resistant genotypes (accompanied by extreme linkage disequilibrium between resistance genes).     

Adapting water resources to climate change in Kiribati: the importance of cultural values and meanings

In many Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States, such as in Kiribati, formal national adaptation programmes are currently being operationalised. A key focus is enhancing the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities through piloting of sectoral adaptation strategies such as diversifying water resources. This study argues that fundamental to water management and adaptation planning is the integration of people's cultural values attached to the assets/resources they control and utilise in their efforts to adapt to various stresses on water resources. The results from integrating cultural resources into a Sustainable Livelihoods Framework indicate that people's capacity to diversify is constrained by cultural processes negotiated in their daily lives that reinforced and reproduced hardships. Material resources provided personal significance when they were spent on maintaining social identity, expressed in recent times through the church. Thus fewer resources were available for pursuing a diversification strategy. Furthermore, power structures in the church delimited benefits to the individual, depriving people of their freedom to exercise autonomous agency and achieve personal wellbeing. The study demonstrates the significance of religion to adaptation. Moreover, it highlights the need to consider the relational aspects of assets, in conditioning how people access and utilise assets in pursuing adaptation strategies.     

Matching innovations with potential users, a case study of potato IPM practices

Through interviews and mail surveys, Ohio potato (Solanum tuberosum) growers were surveyed concerning their willingness to adopt three cultural controls being developed for management of the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say), which had become increasingly difficult to control. The principal objective of the research was to obtain a deeper understanding of how farmers make decisions to adopt or not adopt new techniques and how these decisions are related to farmers' educational backgrounds and the way they currently manage their farms. The three cultural management options emphasized ecological approaches to habitat management rather than ecologically disruptive chemical control: (1) using host plants in overwintering sites to slow the spring movement of the beetles to potato fields, (2) using larger potato plants at field borders than in the center of the field as a spring trap crop, and (3) concentrating beetles in relatively small undefoliated areas to be killed with heat in late summer. Most respondents would not adopt these alternative pest management strategies, mainly because they perceived an unsatisfactory trade-off between logistic difficulties and expenses and population suppression they would achieve compared with traditional chemical control measures. Education correlated positively and experience in farming negatively with the willingness to try new pest management techniques. Additionally, growers responding more negatively to questions regarding integrated pest management strategies were more willing to experiment with the alternative techniques, a result attributed to either the survey design or an indication of experience with the more intensive management effort required for integrated pest management. This profile of potential innovators should be used by researchers to establish partnerships with farmers that could assist with both the research and development of new farming techniques and the adoption of successful systems by other farmers.     

农业技术推广过程中制度因素的影响——湖北省天门市棉花害虫综合防治项目案例分析报告

针对中国主产棉区在病虫害防治中大量施用化学农药加重农业污染，以及害虫产生抗药性导致防治失灵等问题，由亚洲开发银行（ＡＤＢ）资助，英联邦国际生物防治研究所（ＣＡＢＩ）负责实施，于１９９３～１９９６年在中国湖北省天门市建立害虫综合防治（ＩＰＭ）项目试点，旨在研究和开发控制病虫危害和改善生态环境的适用于中国主产棉区的ＩＰＭ技术体系。ＩＰＭ项目有两个特点：①与以往因土地、人口压力而引致的技术变革不同，ＩＰＭ项目是一项因环境压力而引致的技术变革；②以往的技术变革的阻力大多来自于乡村社会结构尤其是农民对新技术的不接受，而ＩＰＭ项目在运作层面首先遇到了高度集中的防治体系的阻碍，即受到制度因素的影响。本文着重分析高度集中的防治体系形成的过程和原因，以及制度因素影响ＩＰＭ项目实施的作用机制，并提出解决问题的政策建议。     

The impact of bias in MoM values on patient risk and screening performance for Down syndrome

First and second trimester screening protocols for Down syndrome rely on marker values being referred to smoothed median values to produce adjusted multiple of the median (MoM) values to standardise for factors such as assay, gestation, maternal weight, smoking status, and so on. Changes in assay components, such as reagent lot, and inappropriate use of published regression equations for smoothed medians have resulted in biases in reported MoM values that in many applications remain uncorrected. This paper investigates the impact of these biases on patient-specific risk estimates and screening performance, and concludes that a 10% bias for an individual marker can result in an increase of between 1 and 2% in the false positive rate of the programme. A simple formula is also derived that enables the impact of these biases to be determined without the need for simulation, thus making it easier to design effective statistical quality control procedures to monitor the output of screening software algorithms. Objective To determine the impact of bias in MoM values on detection rates, false positive rates and patient-specific risks for Down syndrome. Methods We show that bias in MoM values affects risk through a multiplicative factor, and present an approximation to estimate this factor. We then show how bias in MoM values changes the effective risk threshold in the screening test, and hence the test's performance characteristics are determined by reference to a different point on the ROC curve for that test. Our approximation is based on the assumption of equal variance covariance structure for the unaffected and T21 log MoM values. We demonstrate, using computer simulation and supportive theoretical results, that the approximation is reliable in situations encountered in practice. Applications of the approximation are also discussed in respect of establishing effective quality control rules for median MoMs. Results Substantial changes in patient risk estimates and overall screening performance can result from the sort of biases in marker MoM values encountered in routine practice. In particular, biases of 10% in individual median marker MoM values can produce a four-fold range of risks when using the triple test. A 10% bias in a single marker will change the false positive rates by up to 2%. The effects on the false positive rate are approximately additive and, in cases where all markers are biased towards Down syndrome, biases in all three markers for the triple test can more than double the false positive rate. Conclusions Biases in marker MoM values can occur in many ways, inappropriate median values, kit lot change, drift in assay performance and operator effects. We present methods which allow the impact of these changes to be assessed in relation to patient-specific risks and the overall screening performance. This, in turn, will enable appropriate quality control procedures to be established to control the magnitude of reported marker MoM biases, or equivalently, the magnitude of biases associated with the calculation of patient-specific risks. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Personal decisions and their impacts on energy use and the environment

With increasing frequency, individuals deliberately choose specific actions that they hope will lessen environmental impact. Given the complexity of modern society, it is not always easy to know how to minimize environmental harm without undue sacrifice. Government policies can have a role in helping individuals make decisions and encouraging them to act in certain ways. Recycling of solid waste materials is a personal choice made by many people in the USA guided by the belief that recycling is not only good for the environment but that it constitutes a major contribution to improving environmental quality. By using energy usage as a proxy for overall environmental impact, we show that the impact reduction achieved through recycling varies for different materials. It is small but significant for some materials, such as aluminum, and minimal for other materials, such as plastic, especially when compared to other choices that individuals have direct control over, such as the type of vehicle they drive or the amount they drive. While the recycling of certain materials, such as aluminum, does result in measurable energy savings, the net benefit of recycling is orders of magnitude smaller than the gains that can be achieved from switching to more fuel-efficient vehicles. Despite this, perception and policy in the USA have focused on recycling rather than personal vehicle choice and increased reliance on public transportation.     

粮食损失研究进展和展望

我国人多地少,粮食安全事关国家安全。因此,在重视增产的同时,需要不断关注粮食损失问题。通过回顾现有粮食损失的研究,总结文献中提出的重要问题,展望未来可能的研究方向。分析表明,现有研究主要集中在:(1)减少粮食损失的目的和效果的研究。包括增加粮食供给、保障国家安全,减少不必要的资源浪费、减轻环境压力,保障粮食质量、保证食品安全,以及增加粮食价值链参与者的利润等。(2)粮食产后各环节损失水平估计及其影响因素研究。(3)减少粮食损失的方法研究,包括品种改良、教育培训、改进储存设施等。在对现有研究综述的基础上,提出了几点展望:未来的研究应向粮食价值链下游环节拓展,对粮食质量损失程度进行定量分析,并关注粮食的最优损失水平。     

A survey of the use of IPM by New York apple producers

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) was first introduced to New York apple growers in 1975 through an Extension pilot program. Since that time, growers have become aware of the methods, results and potential benefits of following an IPM approach in their orchards. Differences in pesticide use, demography and behavior between IPM users and non-users are presented in this study. Results showed that > 80% of the apple producers in New York State (NY) incorporate some aspect of IPM into their pest control strategies. IPM users were younger and better educated and had less farm experience than non-users. Cornell Cooperative Extension was considered a primary source of written pest management and pesticide information to NY growers. However, agricultural sales persons were also considered useful by the growers for making pest management decisions. Growers that employed comprehensive IPM practices used 30% less insecticides, 47% less miticides and 10% less fungicides than growers that did not use IPM practices. This resulted in 235 kg active ingredient ha⁻¹ not having to be absorbed by the environment and saved IPM apple growers an average of US$ 95.80 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ over an 11-year period (1976–1986) without significantly affecting fruit quality.     

Effects of life-history traits on parasitism in a monogamous mammal, the eastern rock sengi (Elephantulus myurus)

The distribution of parasites is often characterised by substantial aggregation with a small proportion of hosts harbouring the majority of parasites. This pattern can be generated by abiotic and biotic factors that affect hosts and determine host exposure and susceptibility to parasites. Climate factors can change a host’s investment in life-history traits (e.g. growth, reproduction) generating temporal patterns of parasite aggregation. Similarly, host age may affect such investment. Furthermore, sex-biased parasitism is common among vertebrates and has been linked to sexual dimorphism in morphology, behaviour and physiology. Studies exploring sex-biased parasitism have been almost exclusively conducted on polygynous species where dimorphic traits are often correlated. We investigated the effects of season and life-history traits on tick loads of the monogamous eastern rock sengi (Elephantulus myurus). We found larger tick burdens during the non-breeding season possibly as a result of energetic constraints and/or climate effects on the tick. Reproductive investment resulted in increased larval abundance for females but not males and may be linked to sex-specific life-history strategies. The costs of reproduction could also explain the observed age effect with yearling individuals harbouring lower larval burdens than adults. Although adult males had the greatest larval tick loads, host sex appears to play a minor role in generating the observed parasite heterogeneities. Our study suggests that reproductive investment plays a major role for parasite patterns in the study species.     

The potential of pathogens for pest control

A large number of viruses, bacteria, fungi and protozoa can kill or incapacitate insects. Some of these have the potential for a significant role in the management and regulation of pest species of insects, either as naturally occurring entomopathogens or as applied or introduced insecticidal agents. The usefulness of entomopathogens, especially the feasibility of development as microbial insecticides, is examined by consideration of their effectiveness, safety and specificity, production and propagation, and marketability and profitability. Effectiveness, a major consideration in assessing potential, is influenced by several factors including efficacy, dissemination, persistence, compatibility with other regulatory agents, and establishment in the host population, and by factors such as humidity, temperature, chemicals, and formulation, that directly influence the activity of the pathogen.     

Institutional networks and adaptive water governance in the Klamath River Basin,USA

Polycentric networks of formal organizations and informal stakeholder groups, as opposed to centralized institutional hierarchies, can be critically important for strengthening the capacity of governance systems to adapt to unexpected social and biophysical change. Adaptive governance is one type of environmental governance characterized by the emergence of networks that stimulate adaptive capacity through increases in social-learning, communication, trust, public participation and adaptive management. However, detecting and analyzing adaptive governance networks remains elusive, especially given contexts of highly contested resource governance such as large-scale negotiations over water use. Research methods such as social network analysis (SNA) are often infeasible as they necessitate collecting in-depth and politically sensitive personal data from a near-complete set of actors or organizations in a network. Here we present a method for resolving this problem by describing the results of an institutional SNA aimed at characterizing the changing governance network in the Klamath River Basin, USA during a period of contested negotiations over water. Through this research, we forward a method of institutional SNA useful when an individual or egocentric approach to SNA is problematic for political, logistical or financial reasons. We focus our analysis on publically available data signaling changes in formal relationships (statutory, regulatory, contractual) between organizations and stakeholder groups. We find that employing this type of SNA is useful for describing potential and actual transitions in governance that yield increases in adaptive capacity to respond to social and biophysical surprises such as increasing water scarcity and changes in water distribution.     

Potential for biological control of field bindweed in California's coastal vineyards

The possibility of using biological control against field bindweed, Convolvulus arvensis L., was studied in four vineyards along the California coast. Field bindweed is a dominant member of the weed community and the principal plant pest in these vineyards. There is considerable insect and mite damage to its foliage during late summer and autumn, but the stress this places on the weed is unknown. The most significant natural enemies of field bindweed are defoliating caterpillars, Bedellia somnulentella Zeller, Chaetocnema confinis Crotch, and spider mites. Non of the natural enemies present appeared to be suitable as biological control agents. However, some arthropods, such as Noctuelia floralis (Huebner), associated with field bindweed in Mediterranean Europe and Pakistan, could be useful in the California grape agroecosystem, once cleared for importation and release in North America. Others, unsuitable to release in California because of feeding on closely related native plants, may be of value in other parts of the world where no such conflicts of interest exist. It would be feasible to use biological control against field bindweed in California's coastal vineyards and, perhaps, also in orchards under present systems of cultivation. Its effectiveness could be enhanced by certain changes in growing practices, particularly the acceptance of some weed growth, and by changes in existing pest controls. Biological control of field bindweed should be considered in the development of pest management programs for such crops in California and wherever this plant is a serious pest.     

Understanding the use of science in decision-making on cockle fisheries and gas mining in the Dutch Wadden Sea: Putting the science–policy interface in a wider perspective

The use of science to inform and underpin decision-making on natural resources is not self-evident as stakeholders often use science in a selective and strategic way. Scientific analyses of science utilisation often focus on how the science–policy interface is organised and from this perspective provide recommendations to scientists about how they can increase their contribution to decision-making. Yet in this paper we argue that a wider perspective on the science–policy interface, in particular by analysing the roles and interactions of actors other than those directly involved, provides both additional explanations and new points of application for strategies aimed at enhancing science utilisation. We illustrate our claim by means of an analysis of decision-making on cockle fisheries and gas mining in the Dutch Wadden Sea between the 1990s and 2004. For many years, scientific studies addressing the ecological effects of these activities were not used to meaningfully contribute to decision-making. In 2004 this situation changed radically. Explanations include the role of intermediaries between scientists, stakeholders and decision-makers and new legislation. Scientists could enhance the chances of knowledge utilisation both by creating a more open science–policy interface and by reframing the policy problems at issue.     

Sustainable mobility: from technological innovation to societal learning

This paper addresses a persistent and worsening societal dilemma worldwide: the ecological unsustainability of the automobile as the primary means for providing personal mobility. The solution to this problem will require input from all segments of society, and must include technological innovation, changes in the physical infrastructure and land use, and social, cultural, and institutional changes. A fundamental rethinking of the entire system of personal mobility is necessary. Governments can play a significant role in promoting change: by stimulating technological innovation through regulations, incentives and subsidies, by investing in the infrastructure, by providing leadership, and by organizing and supporting a debate with a focus on the system as a whole: its spatial characteristics, the motives for transport, and the alternatives that are presently not developed. From the technological perspective, one of the much-discussed solutions is a hydrogen-powered automobile. We argue that the future of this approach is questionable, and propose a fundamental re-framing of the significance of hydrogen: from viewing it as a solution to the personal mobility problem to seeing it as a medium for transporting and storing energy that has been generated elsewhere (preferably by renewable resources). A new and radically different way of seeing the problem of individual mobility, and of the roles of various stakeholders in finding solutions, is also necessary. This is the essence of higher order learning. To facilitate such learning among various societal groups, we advocate a combination of multi-stakeholder visioning processes, scenario building, backcasting exercises, and small-scale socio-technical experiments. These approaches may be practiced at various levels, from local to national, with experimentation probably being best suited for a smaller scale. An ongoing process of visioning future mobility in the Boston Metropolitan area illustrates how such approaches may be used.     

Integrated modeling of oil spill response strategies: a coastal management case study

Oil spills are commonly considered as one of the worst forms of marine pollution. Often they constitute a challenge for an operational contingency management, since an oil spill contingency management encompasses multiple and often conflicting objectives and has to face various sources of uncertainty. Focusing on a well-documented case, the Pallas oil spill in Germany, the selection of optimal strategy among others is formulated as a multi-criteria decision-making problem that involves various environment, socio-economy and management related effects. These effects may not be directly comparable and compatible due to the fact that they are measured in multiple metrics. To solve such a multi-criteria decision-making problem, this paper proposes monetary evaluation models to assess performances of using different response strategies. Combined with the benefit cost analysis and the cost effectiveness analysis, this method enables to further determine the favored and rational strategy and the worthwhile investment of using combat facilities, respectively. Through the case of Pallas, such a proposed method is demonstrated as an important decision-making support tool in the domain of coastal zone management.     

The boll weevil in North America: Scientific conflicts over management of environmental resources

This paper is a historical and philosphical reconstruction of how U.S. entomologists attempted to mitigate the depradations of the boll weevil on cotton, the world's most important natural fiber. The boll weevil caused severe losses in the U.S. after 1892. Early control methods were based on altering the cultural practices of cotton growers. The discovery in 1917 that calcium arsenate was an effective insecticide for boll weevils eventually allowed some farmers to rely on chemical control. Development of synthetic, organic insecticides allowed many U.S. growers after 1945 to rely heavily on insecticides for boll weevils. By the 1960s, resistance of boll weevils to insecticides, induction of secondary pest outbreaks, and environmental health hazards threatened cotton production practices based on insecticides. U.S. entomologists devised two new strategies to rescue cotton production from its insecticide crisis: integrated pest management (IPM) and total population management (TPM). Eradication of key insect pests such as boll weevils was envisaged by TPM entomologists with adequate technology. E.F. Knipling, the USDA entomologist who designed TPM, gave 1968 as a target for possible boll weevil eradication. The pilot boll weevil eradication experiment (PBWEE) was conducted in 1971–1973. IPM entomologists argued the futility of attempting to eradicate the boll weevil from the U.S.A., but TPM adherents argued for a second test, which was held in Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina (1978–1980). A new controversy erupted over how to interpret the fact that a few boll weevils were found at the end of the second test. IPM and TPM entomologists were once again pitted against one another on three major issues: defining eradication; explaining secondary pest behavior; and drawing conclusions about the wisdom of a national boll weevil eradication program. Currently, entomologists have reached a stalemate over boll weevil eradication in the U.S. Some entomologists are attempting to synthesize opposing views in the hope of reaching a professional consensus on appropriate boll weevil suppression methods. Significant distinctions separate IPM and TPM and will make it difficult to achieve an agreement. Budgetary problems in the U.S.A. argue for a management rather than eradication stance against boll weevils. The split in the U.S. entomological profession could have adverse effects on efforts to develop insect-control science outside of the U.S.     

Climate change adaptation planning in agriculture: processes,experiences and lessons learned from early adapters

This paper explores the lessons learned by leaders in agricultural adaptation planning in order to assist other jurisdictions to develop adaptation strategies. It seeks to identify effective institutional, participatory and collaborative processes involved in designing agricultural adaptation strategies at the national and sub-national levels in Germany, Finland, the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada. Its methodology is based on review of agricultural adaptation policy documents, research initiatives, stakeholder engagement processes, and cross-sectoral collaborations as well as interviews with key informants such as leaders and actors in adaptation planning. The gathered data show that early adapters have an improved regional and national understanding of climatic impacts, and of the risks to agriculture before the initiation of the planning process. The results indicate that the interplay between bottom-up and top-down initiatives has been crucial in the development of adaptation strategies. The former has provided rich and robust participation in designing, implementing and monitoring adaptations, while the latter was important for prioritizing and legitimizing the development of strategy. It also provided access to high-level decision makers and funding. The results of the study suggest that fostering cross-sectoral collaborations—especially by focusing on broader questions such as the role of agriculture in society—has become an important part of adaptation planning. Finally, our results also stress that adaptation planning in agriculture could be enhanced by skills development and mutual learning across stakeholder groups, research and policy-makers, and through the ongoing interactive development of institutional capabilities.     

Action thresholds for processing cabbage,a short-term solution to a long-term problem

Action thresholds for management of lepidopteran pests in processing cabbage were developed and refined over a 4-year period. Since research data on the relationship of pest population density to economic loss was not available initially and treatment guidelines were required for a pest management demonstration program, the thresholds were initially based on the experience of an advisory committee including members from industry, extension and research faculty. These thresholds were revised annually, based on the comments of farmers using them, observations of the advisory committee and studies conducted for that purpose. Studies demonstrated considerable interaction between pest population density and other factors affecting yield. Future progress will require the development of a comprehensive economic threshold model, but in the interim the action thresholds provide most of the benefits expected from such a model.