The 2007 crisis and Greek wildfires: a multivariate analysis of suppression times

Shifts in government priorities in response to the 2007 global recession have affected wildfire management and natural disaster funding arrangements, leading to a reduced effectiveness of fire suppression actions and increasing fire vulnerability. Our study investigates the role of local socioeconomic contexts on fire suppression effectiveness under economic expansion and recession in a Mediterranean region (Attica, Greece) strongly affected by 2007 crisis and displaying a persistently high density of peri-urban wildfires. Basic characteristics of wildfires (spatial distribution, intensity, and land use preferences) were investigated in the study area over two consecutive 8-year time intervals characterized by economic expansion (2000–2007) and recession (2008–2015). An integrated approach based on multivariate statistics and artificial neural networks was implemented to evaluate latent relationships between fire suppression time, wildfire characteristics, and socioeconomic dynamics. Controlling for wildfires’ characteristics over the two time intervals, fire time length increased under crisis—mainly for small and medium-sized fires—possibly as an indirect response to reduced effectiveness of forest land management. Local contexts and political decisions influenced by economic downturns are relevant factors shaping wildfires’ severity in the Mediterranean region. With recession, local contexts vulnerable to wildfires require more effective fire prevention measures, sustainable forest management, and regional planning.     

Heavy metals in jujubes and their potential health risks to the adult consumers in Xinjiang province,China

The concentrations of seven heavy metals (HMs) in jujube samples collected from Hetian region (HTR), Hami region (HMR), Erkesu region (ESR), Bayikuleng region (BLR), and Turpan region (TUR) were determined by inductively coupled mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The accuracy and precision of the analytical method were confirmed by the certified reference material (GBW 07605). In general, the concentration of iron was higher than those of the other six metals in the investigated jujube samples. The Hazard Quotient (HQ) and Hazard Index (HI) were calculated to evaluate the noncarcinogenic health risk from individual metal and combined metals due to the dietary intakes via consumption of jujube. Both HQ and HI levels were far below 1, suggesting no noncarcinogenic risks for Xinjiang adults under the current consumption rates of the jujubes. Among the jujubes from five different regions, BLR jujube had the highest HQ and HI. Fe and As were the most concerning HMs in the investigated jujube samples due to their higher relative contributions to HIs.     

Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models

Large wildland fires are major disturbances that strongly influence the carbon cycling and vegetation dynamics of Canadian boreal ecosystems. Although large wildland fires have recently received much scrutiny in scientific study, it is still a challenge for researchers to predict large fire frequency and burned area. Here, we use monthly climate and elevation data to quantify the frequency of large fires using a Poisson model, and we calculate the probability of burned area exceeding a certain size using a compound Poisson process. We find that the Poisson model simulates large fire occurrence well during the fire season (May through August) using monthly climate, and the threshold probability calculated by the compound Poisson model agrees well with historical records. Threshold probabilities are significantly different among different Canadian ecozones, with the Boreal Shield ecozone always showing the highest probability. The fire prediction model described in this study and the derived information will facilitate future quantification of fire risks and help improve fire management in the region.     

Spatial Distribution of Forest Fires and Controlling Factors in Andhra Pradesh, India Using Spot Satellite Datasets

Fires are one of the major causes of forest disturbance and destruction in several dry deciduous forests of southern India. In this study, we use remote sensing data sets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate and socioeconomic factors for determining the potential causes of forest fires in Andhra Pradesh, India. Spatial patterns in fire characteristics were analyzed using SPOT satellite remote sensing datasets. We then used nineteen different metrics in concurrence with fire count datasets in a robust statistical framework to arrive at a predictive model that best explained the variation in fire counts across diverse geographical and climatic gradients. Results suggested that, of all the states in India, fires in Andhra Pradesh constituted nearly 13.53% of total fires. District wise estimates of fire counts for Andhra Pradesh suggested that, Adilabad, Cuddapah, Kurnool, Prakasham and Mehbubnagar had relatively highest number of fires compared to others. Results from statistical analysis suggested that of the nineteen parameters, population density, demand of metabolic energy (DME), compound topographic index, slope, aspect, average temperature of the warmest quarter (ATWQ) along with literacy rate explained 61.1% of total variation in fire datasets. Among these, DME and literacy rate were found to be negative predictors of forest fires. In overall, this study represents the first statewide effort that evaluated the causative factors of fire at district level using biophysical and socioeconomic datasets. Results from this study identify important biophysical and socioeconomic factors for assessing ‘forest fire danger’ in the study area. Our results also identify potential ‘hotspots’ of fire risk, where fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further this study also demonstrate the usefulness of best-subset regression approach integrated with GIS, as an effective method to assess ‘where and when’ forest fires will most likely occur.     

Decadal time-scale monitoring of forest fires in Similipal Biosphere Reserve,India using remote sensing and GIS

Analyzing the spatial extent and distribution of forest fires is essential for sustainable forest resource management. There is no comprehensive data existing on forest fires on a regular basis in Biosphere Reserves of India. The present work have been carried out to locate and estimate the spatial extent of forest burnt areas using Resourcesat-1 data and fire frequency covering decadal fire events (2004–2013) in Similipal Biosphere Reserve. The anomalous quantity of forest burnt area was recorded during 2009 as 1,014.7 km². There was inconsistency in the fire susceptibility across the different vegetation types. The spatial analysis of burnt area shows that an area of 34.2 % of dry deciduous forests, followed by tree savannah, shrub savannah, and grasslands affected by fires in 2013. The analysis based on decadal time scale satellite data reveals that an area of 2,175.9 km² (59.6 % of total vegetation cover) has been affected by varied rate of frequency of forest fires. Fire density pattern indicates low count of burnt area patches in 2013 estimated at 1,017 and high count at 1,916 in 2004. An estimate of fire risk area over a decade identifies 12.2 km² is experiencing an annual fire damage. Summing the fire frequency data across the grids (each 1 km²) indicates 1,211 (26 %) grids are having very high disturbance regimes due to repeated fires in all the 10 years, followed by 711 grids in 9 years and 418 in 8 years and 382 in 7 years. The spatial database offers excellent opportunities to understand the ecological impact of fires on biodiversity and is helpful in formulating conservation action plans.     

A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

Fire risk evaluation using multicriteria analysis—a case study

Forest fires are one of the major causes of ecological disturbance and environmental concerns in tropical deciduous forests of south India. In this study, we use fuzzy set theory integrated with decision-making algorithm in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) framework to map forest fire risk. Fuzzy set theory implements classes or groupings of data with boundaries that are not sharply defined (i.e., fuzzy) and consists of a rule base, membership functions, and an inference procedure. We used satellite remote sensing datasets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate, and socioeconomic datasets to infer the causative factors of fires. Spatial-level data on these biophysical and socioeconomic parameters have been aggregated at the district level and have been organized in a GIS framework. A participatory multicriteria decision-making approach involving Analytical Hierarchy Process has been designed to arrive at a decision matrix that identified the important causative factors of fires. These expert judgments were then integrated using spatial fuzzy decision-making algorithm to map the forest fire risk. Results from this study were quite useful in identifying potential “hotspots” of fire risk, where forest fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further, this study also demonstrates the potential of multicriteria analysis integrated with GIS as an effective tool in assessing “where and when” forest fires will most likely occur.     

Satellite monitoring for carbon monoxide and particulate matter during forest fire episodes in Northern Thailand

This study explored the use of satellite data to monitor carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM) in Northern Thailand during the dry season when forest fires are known to be an important cause of air pollution. Satellite data, including Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) CO, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aerosol optical depth (MODIS AOD), and MODIS fire hotspots, were analyzed with air pollution data measured at nine automatic air quality monitoring stations in the study area for February–April months of 2008–2010. The correlation analysis showed that daily CO and PM with size below 10 μm (PM₁₀) were associated with the forest fire hotspot counts, especially in the rural areas with the maximum correlation coefficient (R) of 0.59 for CO and 0.65 for PM₁₀. The correlations between MODIS AOD and PM₁₀, between MOPITT CO and CO, and between MODIS AOD and MOPITT CO were also analyzed, confirming the association between these variables. Two forest fire episodes were selected, and the dispersion of pollution plumes was studied using the MOPITT CO total column and MODIS AOD data, together with the surface wind vectors. The results showed consistency between the plume dispersion, locations of dense hotspots, ground monitoring data, and prevalent winds. The satellite data were shown to be useful in monitoring the regional transport of forest fire plumes.     

Occupational exposure to NDMA and NMor in the European rubber industry

Many nitrosamines are suspected of being human carcinogens, with the highest concentrations in the environment being measured in the rubber industry. Time trends of personal exposure to N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) and to N-nitrosomorpholine (NMor) during the past two decades in the German rubber industry were analysed and compared with cross-sectional studies in the same period in the Netherlands, Poland, the UK and Sweden. In the majority of the surveyed departments exposures reduced over time, but considerable heterogeneity was present between departments and sectors. Significant reductions were primarily found in curing and post-treating departments and ranged from -3% year(-1) to -19% year(-1). In contrast, NDMA levels increased (+13% year(-1)) in maintenance and engineering in the tyres industry. Average NDMA-levels in general rubber goods (GRG) and NMor-levels in tyre production in Germany did not decrease significantly in the past two decades, whereas NDMA-levels in tyre production (-10% year(-1)) and NMor-levels in GRG (-7% year(-1)) declined significantly after the introduction of an exposure limit for total nitrosamines in Germany in 1988. Confidence intervals of average exposures in other studied countries largely overlap trends observed in Germany. Exposure to N-nitrosamines decreased on average two-to-five fold in the German rubber industry with comparable concentration levels in other European countries. Although average levels are well below the current limits exposure has not been eliminated, and incidental high exposures do still occur.     

Concentrations of PM2.5-associated OC, EC, and PCDD/Fs measured during the 2003 wildfire season in Missoula, Montana

Throughout August and September, 2003, wildfires burned in close proximity to Missoula, Montana, with smoke emanating from the fires impacting the valley for much of the summer. This presented the perfect opportunity to measure the levels of polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) comprising ambient forest fire smoke particles impacting the Missoula Valley. An air sampler at the Montana Department of Environmental Quality's (DEQ) compliance site in Missoula measured hourly averages of PM₁₀ throughout the fire season. Three collocated PM_2.5 cyclones collected 24-h smoke samples using quartz filters and Polyurethane Foam (PUF) sorbent cartridges. From the quartz filters, concentrations of Organic and Elemental Carbon (OC/EC) were measured, while PCDD/F were measured from one set of a filter (particle phase) and PUF (vapor phase) aggregate of samples in an attempt to also investigate the different phases of PCDD/F in forest fire smoke impaired communities.Hourly PM₁₀ concentrations peaked at 302.9 μg m⁻³ on August 15. The highest OC concentration (115.6 μg m⁻³) was measured between August 21–22, and the highest EC concentration of 10.5 μg m⁻³ was measured August 20–21. Measurable concentrations of PM_2.5 associated PCDD/Fs were not detected from a representative aggregate sample, with the exception of small amounts of 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-heptachlorodibenzodioxin and octachlorodibenzodioxin. PM_2.5 samples collected during the smoke events were composed of approximately 65% OC. However, the OC fraction of the particles collected in the smoke impaired Missoula valley was not composed of significant amounts of PCDD/F.     

Non-carcinogenic risks induced by metals in drinking source water of Jiangsu Province, China

In this study, we investigated the levels of eight metallic elements in source water of 40 tap water treatment plants (TWTPs) located along Yangtze River, Taihu Lake and Huaihe River in the section of Jiangsu Province, China during 2007?C2009 and assessed the non-carcinogenic risks induced by the metals. Among the metals, Fe had the highest concentration (121.5 ??g L^???1) and Pb contributed most (32.4%) to the average hazard index (HI) of 40 TWTPs, followed by Cd (24.7%) and Cr (21.6%). The average concentration of each metal was below the permissible limit of China and USA except for Pb. Both hazard quotients of individual metals and HI of total non-carcinogenic risk in each TWTP were lower than 1.0, suggesting that these pollutants posed negligible hazards to public health of local residents. Temporal and spatial comparisons showed that high HIs occurred more frequently in low water seasons, and the three TWTPs located along Huaihe River (Dongtai, Jinhu and Yishuichang) had relatively higher HIs.     

基于火点辐射能量的2017—2021年广西秸秆露天燃烧排放时空分析

基于2017—2021年MODIS、VIIRS和Himawari-8等多套卫星的火点辐射能量(FRE)和云量反演数据,使用更高分辨率的火点替代相邻位置低分辨率火点的融合方法,利用晴空的火点分布数据对被云遮蔽的区域进行补偿,核算得到了2 km高分辨率的广西秸秆露天燃烧排放数据,并针对2017—2021年的广西秸秆露天燃烧排放量展开精细的时空分布研究。结果表明:2017—2021年广西秸秆露天燃烧的CO、NO_x、SO₂、NH₃、VOCs、PM₁₀和PM_2.5的年排放量均值分别为12.91万、0.78万、0.16万、0.17万、2.77万、2.26万、2.21万t,排放高值区域分布在广西中部及西南部。秸秆露天燃烧排放的主要时间集中在冬、春季节(10月至次年3月),时值晚稻收割期和甘蔗榨季,占全年排放量的60%以上。广西秸秆露天燃烧PM_2.5年均排放量是全广西PM_2.5人为源年排放量的8.74%,通过逐日排放贡献分析发现,秸秆露天燃烧具有短期排放量较大的特点,2017—2021年,在1—2月有34 d出现秸秆露天燃烧导致PM_2.5排放量超过人为源排放量50%的情况。     

A GIS-based decision support system for determining the shortest and safest route to forest fires: a case study in Mediterranean Region of Turkey

The ability of firefighting vehicles and staff to reach a fire area as quickly as possible is critical in fighting against forest fires. In this study, a Geographical Information System-based decision support system was developed to assist fire managers in determining the fastest and the safest or more reliable access routes from firefighting headquarters to fire areas. The decision support system was tested in the Kahramanmaras Forestry Regional Directoratein the Mediterranean region of Turkey. The study area consisted of forested lands which had been classified according to fire sensitivity. The fire response routing simulations considered firefighting teams located in 20 firefighting headquarter locations. The road network, the locations of the firefighting headquarters, and possible fire locations were mapped for simulation analysis. In alternative application simulations, inaccessible roads which might be closed due to fire or other reasons were indicated in the network analysis so that the optimum route was not only the fastest but also the safest and most reliable path. The selection of which firefighting headquarters to use was evaluated by considering critical response time to potential fire areas based on fire sensitivity levels. Results indicated that new firefighting headquarters should be established in the region in order to provide sufficient firefighting response to all forested lands. In addition, building new fire access roads and increasing the design speed on current roads could also increase firefighting response capabilities within the study area.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers and organochlorine pesticides in human breast milk from Massachusetts, USA

Concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs; DDTs, HCHs, CHLs, and HCB) were measured in human breast milk samples collected across Massachusetts, USA, in 2004. Seventeen PBDE congeners were found in the samples, ranging in concentration from 0.06 to 1910 ng g(-1) lipid wt. BDE-47 (2,2',4,4'-tetraBDE), BDE-99 (2,2',4,4',5-pentaBDE), and BDE-100 (2,2',4,4',6-pentaBDE) were the major congeners detected in breast milk samples. Overall mean (+/-SD) concentrations of DDTs, HCHs, CHLs, and HCB were 64.5 +/- 75, 18.9 +/- 19, 32.4 +/- 36, and 2.3 +/- 2.2 ng g(-1) lipid wt, respectively. Concentrations of PBDEs were strongly correlated with concentrations of OCPs in the samples. Based on the concentrations of organohalogens and the intake rates of breast milk by infants in the United States, daily ingestion rates of contaminants were calculated. The median ingestion rates for PBDEs, HCHs, DDTs, CHLs, and HCB were 4.0, 212, 141, 44, and 5.79 ng kg(-1) body wt day(-1), respectively. The estimated daily intake of organohalogens by infants was compared with threshold reference values suggested by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), for calculation of hazard quotients (HQs). HQs for individual organohalogens and the sum of HQ for all organohalogens were calculated as HQ indices (HQI). The results suggest that one or more of the contaminants analyzed in this study exceeded the threshold reference values in at least 26% of the breast milk samples.     

Integrated Ambient and Microenvironment Model for Estimation of PM10 Exposures of Children in Annual and Episode Settings

Particulate matter air pollution is estimated to cause in the order of 350,000 excess deaths in the European Union calling for policy development and evaluation tools. In the current work, a model for PM₁₀ exposures of children is developed using microenvironment time activities and infiltration of ambient pollution indoors, both evaluated against observations earlier and integrated with city-wide air quality models in the current work. The model is demonstrated using data from two cities in Italy. High-end short-term exposures are characterized by an episode-day situation in Turin, and annual mean exposures in downtown Bologna. The air quality model was unable to capture the highest levels during the episode, and therefore, the exposure model was adjusted using observed–modeled ratio from a monitoring station. Air quality model performance for the annual levels was significantly better. Annual exposure variability within the target population was 1.5-fold in the downtown area Bologna and tenfold during the episode day in Turin.     

Carbon monoxide concentrations in outdoor wood-fired kitchens in Ouagadougou,Burkina Faso—implications for women’s and children’s health

A majority of households in developing countries rely on biomass fuel for cooking, typically burned in open fires or simple stoves. The incomplete combustion of these fuels causes adverse health effects such as respiratory diseases, especially among women and children. However, quantitative data on pollution levels and on associated diseases are limited. We examined cooking habits and self-reported health in 31 households with outdoor open wood fires in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, using structured interviews. In eight households, carbon monoxide (CO) was measured using passive sampling. In addition, meteorology and ambient CO concentrations were assessed. The average CO concentration during cooking was 4.3 ppm, with a maximum of 65.3 ppm and minimum of 0.3 ppm (1-min values). A clear daily pattern was observed, with relatively low concentrations during the day and high during the evening, occasionally exceeding the World Health Organization 1- and 8-h guidelines when the air stabilised. On average, CO concentrations were 43 % higher in kitchens located in closed yards than in those located in open yards, showing that fireplace location affected the levels. Eye irritation and coughing among women and children were reported by 30 % of the households. Based on previously reported relations between CO concentrations and fine particles (<2.5 μm), the exposure to biomass smoke appears to be high enough to pose a considerable health risk among women and children in households with outdoor open wood fires. The results suggest that burning should be limited between sunset and dawn and in areas with limited ventilation to reduce pollutions levels.     

中国秸秆焚烧的遥感监测与分析

用最近四年的MODIS火点数据,通过相关处理和分析,得出了全国秸秆焚烧状况的时空分布规律。结果表明,秸秆焚烧最严重的区域一直分布在淮河流域和陕西关中平原,这是秸秆禁烧工作的重点;南部各省秸秆焚烧点密度较小,比较分散,造成的危害相对较小。秸秆焚烧的主要时间,北方集中在夏秋季节,主要是小麦、玉米、油菜等的秸秆;南方集中在冬春季节,主要是水稻、甘蔗、油菜等的秸秆。秸秆焚烧的时空分布规律在最近几年基本无大的变化,秸秆焚烧面积在2002年~2005年期间逐年上升。文章结论反映了各地执行秸秆禁烧政策的效果,可为相关政府部门进行秸秆禁烧工作提供依据。     

Exposure to airborne isocyanates and other thermal degradation products at polyurethane-processing workplaces

The thermal degradation products of polyurethanes (PURs) and exposure to isocyanates were studied by stationary and personal measurements in five different occupational environments. Isocyanates were collected on glass fibre filters impregnated with 1-(2-methoxyphenyl)piperazine (2MP) and in impingers containing n-dibutylamine (DBA) in toluene. connected to a glass fibre postfilter. The derivatives formed were analysed by liquid chromatography: 2MP derivatives with UV and electrochemical detection and DBA derivatives with mass spectrometric detection. The release of aldehydes and other volatile organic compounds into the air was also studied. In a comparison of the two sampling methods, the 2MP method yielded about 20% lower concentrations for 4,4'-methylenediphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) than did the DBA method. In car repair shops, the median concentration of diisocyanates (given as NCO groups) in the breathing zone was 1.1 microg NCO m(-3) during grinding and 0.3 microg NCO m(-3) during welding, with highest concentrations of 1.7 and 16 pg NCO m(-3), respectively. High concentrations of MDI, up to 25 and 19 microg NCO m(-3), respectively, were also measured in the breathing zone during welding of district heating pipes and turning of a PUR-coated metal cylinder. During installation of PUR-coated floor covering, small amounts of aliphatic diisocyanates were detected in the air. A small-molecular monoisocyanate, methyl isocyanate, and isocyanic acid were detected only during welding and turning operations. The diisocyanate concentrations were in general higher near the emission source than in the workers' breathing zone. A sampling strategy to evaluate the risk of exposure to isocyanates is presented.     

Feasibility of relating interferon production by wild voles to types of chemical contamination of their environment

In the fall of 1980, a limited field sampling and laboratory analysis profect was undertaken to explore the feasibility of relating immunological responses of field mice (voles) living wild in an area of environmental concern to the level of chemical contamination of that area. The voles were collected in the vicinity of Love Canal by biological sampling teams already there to collect voles for other purposes.The project helped identify those areas of practical uncertainty that must be clarified before the rate of interferon production in voles can be considered as a possible indicator of chemical contamination. Two lines of research are proposed: developing optimumin vitro interferon bioassays systems for vole leukocytes; and characterizing the interferon production responses of voles following controlled exposures to selected carcinogens and other chemicals.     

Using remotely sensed imagery to monitor savanna rangeland deterioration through woody plant proliferation: a case study from communal and biodiversity conservation rangeland sites in Mokopane, South Africa

Healthy rangelands are of economic and biodiversity conservation importance in the savannas of northern South Africa. The proliferation of woody plant species on the rangelands, known as bush encroachment, constitutes a degradation of rangeland quality, given the non-palatability of the encroaching species. Though the causes are not fully understood, heavy grazing and fire suppression are thought to be primary causes of bush encroachment. This study utilised multitemporal (1994, 2000 and 2008) SPOT images of two rangeland sites in Mokopane, South Africa in monitoring and assessing bush encroachment. The study sites were a fenced biodiversity conservation rangeland with game species in which fire is suppressed and an open access communal rangeland grazed by livestock. Field plot-derived encroachment categories of heavy encroachment, moderate encroachment, low encroachment and non-encroached were used in hybrid classification of the images, following radiometric normalisation and geometric registration. GIS overlay analysis using the non-encroached category enabled the quantification and mapping of change in the preferable open grass rangeland typifying savannas. The biodiversity conservation area was undergoing a trend of reduction in open grass rangeland, whereas the communal rangelands were getting more opened up by livestock trampling. Rangeland management practices of fire utilisation, stocking levels and stock concentration account for the differing trends. Lightly grazed and heavily grazed wild game-utilised rangelands under a fire suppression rangeland management regime had bush encroachment rates of approximately 34% and 56%, respectively, in 6 years. Multitemporal remote sensing proved to be useful for monitoring bush encroachment as indicator of state of savanna rangelands.