京津冀及周边地区空气质量预报工作存在问题及解决对策

环境空气质量预报工作作为担负重污染预警应急和大气污染防控不可或缺的基础工作,正逐步成为环保部门核心业务之一。基于近3年京津冀及周边地区省、市环境空气质量预报工作开展现状,针对预报工作中遇到的人员短缺、能力建设进度缓慢、预报资料匮乏等现实问题,从政策制度和预报技术2方面分析原因,提出需要从制度建设着手,通过建立健全预报工作保障制度、评价制度、考核制度和培训制度,完善地区预报能力建设和预报水平,同时为全国其他区域省、市空气质量预报工作的开展提供参考与借鉴。     

美国加州南岸地区空气质量预报系统运行管理与借鉴

借鉴美国加州南岸空气质量预报经验,特别是其运行管理模式对于现阶段中国城市环境空气质量预测预报具有极高的参考价值。简要介绍了加州南岸空气质量管理局(SCAQMD)空气质量预报业务流程、技术方法、信息发布方式和预报效果评估策略。建议从4个方面借鉴SCAQMD经验:(1)建立相对完善的空气质量预报体系,分层级自上而下指导预报工作;(2)选择合适的空气质量预报方法,综合统筹成本-效益评估工作;(3)评估预报效果进而提高预报准确率;(4)在优化空气质量预报能力的基础上,有序开展预警协同控制工作。     

区域环境空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则

为响应公众服务和环境管理对环境空气质量预报的迫切需求,中国环境监测总站率先在京津冀区域开展了区域环境空气质量预报测试。结合目前积累的预报经验和国内外相关研究,探索出区域空气质量预报的一般方法和基本原则,讨论了客观订正环节中大气扩散条件、污染源排放、物理化学过程和空气质量变化规律的分析方法及系统建立、结果确定、天气控制形势分析和信息表述等基本原则,以期为各地开展环境空气质量预报提供技术参考。     

精细化预报在首届中国国际进口博览会空气质量保障工作中的应用

重大活动保障预报不同于业务预报,其核心是服务管控,并注重提前预报的时效性和精细化。该文总结了首届中国国际进口博览会空气质量保障预报工作的实践经验:在历次保障预报联合会商组织架构的基础上,完善联合会商机制,强调预报保障主体单位与支持单位的预报工作内容和职责的区分,通过数值模式的优化改进、针对性开展关键气象因素专题等多种技术手段不断提升预报精准度,并创新应用历史相似污染案例库挖掘和匹配分析,注重预报效果评估以及时总结预报经验,不断提升预报的准确性,为管理决策提供强有力的技术支撑。     

重大活动空气质量保障预报会商机制及经验探讨

重大活动空气质量保障预报会商已经成为保障过程中的重要环节,旨在以精细化空气质量预报为环境管理部门制定高效可行的区域大气污染管控措施提供关键技术依据。预报会商机制可有效规范区域联动预报会商的开展,在多个重大活动空气质量保障中,预报会商机制已日益完善,尤其是在强化立体化监测网、开展多技术组协同作业、建立多维预报会商流程、提升多种重点污染物预报能力等方面积累了大量宝贵的实践经验。该文首次系统性探讨国内空气质量保障预报会商机制和经验,以期为今后承办重大活动的地区开展空气质量保障预报会商提供借鉴。     

城市空气质量周报效用分析

介绍了世界上一些发达国家的空气污染预报的做法和采取的措施,阐述了我国开展空气质量预报的方针和方法,指出了周报是预报的基础工作。叙述了我国空气质量周报的污染参数的选取、污染指数的分级及其浓度限值和污染指数计算及确定,分析并总结了开展城市空气质量周报所发挥的效用是提高公众的环保意识,加大了治理污染的力度,转变了环境监测的职能,促进了环境监测事业的发展     

典型高原山地城市环境空气质量预报预警平台设计

空气质量预报系统作为一种重要的工具用于为公众提供空气质量预报信息、评估城市空气质量,为污染控制战略、动态环境管理以及决策制定提供支持。研究对国内外环境空气质量预报现状进行了回顾,以云南省为例提出了高原山地城市环境空气质量预报预警体系建设的整体思路,针对系统建设现状,提出了环境空气质量预报预警系统建设所面临的问题以及对未来发展方向的建议。     

长三角区域空气质量预警联动系统及其在上海世博会的应用

为保障上海世博会空气质量,开发了长三角区域空气质量预警联动系统.系统由区域数据共享、预报预警、信息发布和应急联动等4个子系统构成,采用自动质量控制检查、多模式集合预报、秸秆焚烧火点判定、预警联动机制研究、GIS自动化处理和表达等关键技术.在上海世博会期间,实时监控和预测了长三角区域空气质量状况和变化趋势,发布了5次大气...     

Public engagement on urban air pollution: an exploratory study of two interventions

The use of portable sensors to measure air quality is a promising approach for the management of urban air quality given its potential to improve public participation in environmental issues and to promote healthy behaviors. However, not all the projects that use air quality mobile sensors consider the potential effects of their use on the attitudes and behaviors of non-expert individuals. This study explores the experiences, perceptions, attitudes, and behavioral intentions of 12 participants who used a real-time NO₂ sensor over a period of 7 days in the metropolitan area of Barcelona and compares them with 16 participants who did not have access to the device but rather to documentary information. The study design is based on recombined focus groups who met at the beginning and end of a 7-day activity. The results suggest that the experience with the sensors, in comparison with the traditional information, generates greater motivation among participants. Also, that the use of the sensor seems to support a more specific awareness of the problem of air pollution. In relation to risk perception, the textual and visual information seems to generate stronger beliefs of severity among participants. In both groups, beliefs of low controllability and self-efficacy are observed. Neither using the sensor nor reading the documentary information seems to contribute positively in this sense. The results of the study aim to contribute to the design of public involvement strategies in urban air pollution.     

Natural resource protection on buffer lands: integrating resource evaluation and economics

Environmental managers are faced with the wise management, sustainability, and stewardship of their land for natural resource values. This task requires the integration of ecological evaluation with economics. Using the Department of Energy (DOE) as a case study, we examine the why, who, what, where, when, and how questions about assessment and natural resource protection of buffer lands. We suggest that managers evaluate natural resources for a variety of reasons that revolve around land use, remediation/restoration, protection of natural environments, and natural resource damage assessment (NRDA). While DOE is the manager of its lands, and thus its natural resources, a range of natural resource trustees and public officials have co-responsibility. We distinguish four types of natural resource evaluations: (1) the resources themselves (to the ecosystem), (2) the value of specific resources to people (e.g. hunting/fishing/bird-watching/herbal medicines), (3) the value of ecological resources to services for communities (e.g. clean air/water), and (4) the value of the intact ecosystems (e.g. forests or estuaries). Resource evaluations should occur initially to provide information about the status of those resources, and continued evaluation is required to provide trends data. Additional natural resource evaluation is required before, during and immediately following changes in land use, and remediation or restoration. Afterwards, additional monitoring and evaluations are required to evaluate the effects of the land use change or the efficacy of remediation/restoration. There are a wide range of economic methods available to evaluate natural resources, but the methods chosen depend upon the nature of the resource being evaluated, the purpose of the evaluation, and the needs of the agencies, natural resource trustees, public officials, and the public. We discuss the uses, and the advantages and disadvantages of different evaluation methods for natural resources.     

长三角空气质量区域预报准确性评估方法研究

根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62.2%,预报评分为70.2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。     

中小城市空气质量预报试验与问题研究

当前中国大气污染形势严峻,迫切需要开展环境空气质量预报预警业务工作。为调研国内中小城市开展空气质量预报的基础条件和业务需求,促进全国城市空气质量业务体系建设,中国环境监测总站组织8个典型中小城市,利用基于数值预报基础的统计模式预报系统开展了空气质量预报实验工作。在此基础上,针对开展全国预报业务体系建设所需的中小城市预报方法、基础条件、人员技术水平等方面进行专项调研,并对国内中小城市开展空气质量预报能力建设和业务工作面临的问题、困难提出了建议和参考对策。     

厦门市空气质量臭氧预报和评估系统

为了评价和预测厦门市区空气中臭氧的污染水平,运用2006～2009年的监测数据对臭氧的污染成因及其变化规律进行研究。通过风向、风速、气温、湿度等气象因子对臭氧浓度影响的分析,进而运用多元线性回归法建立厦门市臭氧预报及评估系统。     

基于OPAQ的城市空气质量预报系统研究

空气质量预测在国内的关注度日益提高,传统的空气质量预测系统通常运用数值化学传输模型,利用物理方程来计算污染物的扩散、沉降和化学反应。而化学传输模型的预测准确性很大程度上需要依赖详细的污染源排放信息和气象模型的输出结果。基于统计模型的OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统,采用人工神经网络算法,可预测各污染物的日均值或日最大值。并对北京空气质量预报的结果进行了评价,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统对空气质量预测的准确性较高,能够利用较低的计算资源得到较为准确的预测结果。与数值预报相比,OPAQ空气质量预报业务系统不需要大量的基础数据作为输入,可弥补数值预报的不足,并成为数值预报的有力补充。     

南京青奥会空气质量监测保障的经验与思考

从空气质量保障目标、监测网络、预测预报、信息发布、科研课题等角度,对比分析了南京青奥会、北京奥运会、上海世博会、广州亚运会等4大赛事/活动的空气质量监测保障体系,总结了南京青奥会在空气流动监测车布设、空气质量专家会商与信息发布等方面的经验得失,并提出了改善建议。     

Development and Use of Integrated Air Quality Management Tools in Urban Areas with the Aid of Environmental Telematics

Contemporary urban air quality management requires the use of appropriate systems which include air quality models, a Geographical Information System (GIS) and a combination of expert systems and decision support tools, while at the same time possessing the capability to receive information from in situ measurements. Until recently, the relation between Information Technology capabilities and the system's design and architecture were poorly addressed, mainly due to technological limitations posed. Moreover, air quality management scenario design issues were partially considered, because of the difficulty in aggregating complex, air quality related issues, in a comprehensive and effective manner, from the end users point of view. In the present paper the use of Environmental Telematics is discussed as a framework for the development of urban air quality management systems, while a comprehensive approach for the application and evaluation of relevant scenarios is presented.     

洛阳市大气污染特征与相关气象要素24小时变化分析

通过对洛阳市环境空气监测资料的统计,归纳出洛阳市区日内24小时环境空气污染变化特征,并结合同步气象观测资料综合分析,找出了二者之间的联系特征。引入气温日较差这一便于观测、预报的气象要素表征空气污染物垂直扩散特征,为今后进行污染预报提供了新的思路。     

江苏省区域空气质量多模式预报预警系统研究与设计

围绕江苏省大气污染日益严峻的形势,设计了江苏省区域空气质量多模式预报预警系统,系统主要由数据中心、计算中心、分析展示中心、预报中心4个部分构成,运用了多模式集合预报、数据仓储联机分析处理、数据挖掘及智能关联等关键技术。系统的建成将为江苏省各级政府和相关单位决策层制定区域联动的大气污染防控措施,采取针对性的应急处置措施提供科学、及时的技术支撑。     

Forecasting Up to Year 2000 on Shanghai's Environmental Quality

The capabilities of third world countries in dealing withenvironmental problems are often limited by available resources and the tremendous costs of environmental monitoring.This paper attempts to introduce a newmethodology that can be used to derive information aboutenvironmental quality in its spatial and temporal dimensions.This methodology, based on an inquiry-feedback network of 8,000families and iteration with controlled-feedback of expertcommunity, has been first tested in Shanghai, China andprocedurally can be divided into two steps: Base-year evaluationand forecasting. Fuzzy pattern recognition is introduced for thesubjective assessment of the citizens' feelings theirperceived environment and a four-round Delphi-Cross Impactanalysis is conducted for forecasting the environmental changesup to 2000. Results show that the base-year environmentalsituations were poor. In the foreseeable future, the conditionsfor housing, social services, public health, greenspace anddrinking water will be substantially improved. Due to the rapidgrowth of manufacturing, the city will continue its deteriorating trend of air and water quality into the next century according to the forecast.     

沿海地区中小城市环境空气质量预报模式的研究与应用

根据两年来的实际工作经验,探讨了沿海地区气象因素对环境空气质量的影响,并结合沿海地区气候特征及污染现状对影响环境空气质量的因素进行了研究分析,建立了适合于沿海地区中小城市环境空气质量预报模式,其预报准确率高。对沿海地区中小城市今后开展空气质量预报工作具有一定的指导意义。