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1.
Dietary exposure to persistent organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) was assessed for Chinese populations, using the total diet study (TDS) approach in 2007. Multistage random cluster sampling method was used in this study. 108 composite samples, representative of foods “as consumed” by the Chinese were analyzed for residues of OCPs by a multi-residue method. The result showed that hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT), chlordane compounds (CHLs), hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) and heptachlor could be detected in, respectively 84%, 39%, 37%, 13% and 5% of all samples. Concentrations of DDT in all samples ranged from undetectable levels to 72.2 μg/kg. Others were minor components in the OCPs profile. The residual levels of OCPs were significantly below the Extraneous Maximum Residue Limits (EMRLs). Based on the 2000 nationwide food consumption survey, the average dietary exposure of the Chinese to DDT, HCH, HCB, CHLs, and heptachlor was estimated to be 0.016, 0.002, 0.009, 0.006, and 0.001 μg/kg body weight per day respectively, showing a significant decrease trend compared with the past. The major food groups contributing to dietary OCPs were aquatic foods, meats, and cereals. The average and high end estimated daily intakes of different OCPs for the Chinese were both lower than the tolerable daily intake (TDI) suggested by authorities indicating low health risk of OCPs dietary exposure among Chinese adults at present. However, the risk of carcinogenicity of the OCPs should be concerned with if the carcinogenicity effects from the exposures to these OCPs were considered.  相似文献   

2.
Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are an important potential component of chemical pollutants used extensively for agriculture and sanitation purposes in India as these are comparatively cheap and effective. These persistent organic compounds such as HCH isomers, DDT and its metabolites are the predominant chemical contaminants found along the Indian coast and thus constitute both alluring and grave areas of scientific research. Our objective in the paper is to provide a comprehensive account of the distribution of organochlorine pesticides in biotic and abiotic compartments of the Indian coastal environment, make some comments on their environmental sources, their movement through the food chain and possible ecotoxicological risk of health in biota including humans. The prevalent HCH, DDT and HCB concentrations differ markedly in eastern and western coast of India reflecting differing agricultural and other usage and their ultimate input into the coastal environment by several rivers and the bioturbation activities of macrozoobenthos (bivalve mollusks, polychaetous annelids, etc.). In several cases, the DDT levels exceeded the effects range-low (ER-L) and could thus cause acute biological impairments, in comparison with the sediment quality guidelines. Contributions of DDT metabolites (DDT, DDD and DDE residues) vary in different Indian coastal regions predominated by pp'-DDT and pp'-DDD. Measured concentrations of HCHs were lower than DDTs that might be due to higher water solubility, vapor pressure and biodegradability of the latter. HCH and DDT residues in fish in India were lower than those in the temperate countries indicating a lower accumulation in tropical fish, which might be related to rapid volatilization of this insecticide in the tropical environment. The concentrations of other chlorinated pesticides (aldrin, dieldrin, eldrin, methoxychlor, endosulfan sulphate) were lower and not generally of great concern.  相似文献   

3.
Global fallout 137Cs was used for dating sediment cores and estimation of recent sedimentation rates (up to 1 cm/y) in the Thane Creek, which lies in the southern part of the Deccan belt of India. The residence time of 210Pb in the Thane Creek water was calculated to be 0.7 years. Further, the concentrations of Pb (up to 70 microg/g) and Hg (up to 10 microg/g) in sediment profiles were measured to assess the anthropogenic input of contaminants due to large-scale industrialization, which has taken place in this area over the last two decades. The depth-wise concentration profile of Hg shows positive evidence of continued fresh input into the Creek.  相似文献   

4.
The distribution and residue levels of BHC, Lindane, Endrin, o,p′-DDT, p,p′-DDE, and p,p′-DDD in Mugil and Tilapia species collected from Egyptian Delta lakes were evaluated. Residues of BHC and p,p′-DDT were found in most fish samples obtained from El-Manzala, El-Burullus, Edku, and Maryut lakes. Fish samples from Lake Edku showed the highest residue levels of the studied compounds. Residues of BHC and p,p′-DDT in Mugil and Tilapia species are within the range found in fish from the northwest Atlantic but lower than the levels reported for other fish species the United States. Mugil and Tilapia species could be used as indicator organisms for monitoring the residue levels of organochlorine pesticides and their distribution.  相似文献   

5.
Occurrence and fate of hormone steroids in the environment   总被引:32,自引:0,他引:32  
Hormone steroids are a group of endocrine disruptors, which are excreted by humans and animals. In this paper, we briefly review the current knowledge on the fate of these steroids in the environment. Natural estrogenic steroids estrone (E1), 17beta-estradiol (E2) and estriol (E3) all have a solubility of approximately 13 mg/l, whereas synthetic steroids 17alpha-ethynylestradiol (EE2) and mestranol (MeEE2) have a solubility of 4.8 and 0.3 mg/l, respectively. These steroids have a moderate binding on sediments and are reported to degrade rapidly in soil and water. Estrogenic steroids have been detected in effluents of sewage treatment plants (STPs) in different countries at concentrations ranging up to 70 ng/l for E1, 64 ng/l for E2, 18 ng/l for E3 and 42 ng/l for EE2. E2 concentrations in river waters from Japan, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands ranged up to 27 ng/l. In addition, E2 concentrations ranging from 6 to 66 ng/l have also been measured in mantled karst aquifers in northwest Arkansas. This contamination of ground water has been associated with poultry litter and cattle manure waste applied on the land. Although hormone steroids have been detected at a number of sources worldwide, currently, there is limited data on the environmental behaviour and fate of these hormone steroids in different environmental media. Consequently, the exposure and risk associated with these chemicals are not adequately understood.  相似文献   

6.
Size-fractionated plutonium isotopes in a coastal environment   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We have examined the distribution of individual Pu isotopes (239Pu, 240Pu, and 241Pu) in seawater from the Gulf of Maine (GOM). Samples were size-fractionated with a 1 kD cross-flow ultrafiltration (CFF) membrane. Subfractioned samples were radiochemically purified and Pu isotopes were analyzed using a three-stage thermal ionization mass spectrometer (TIMS). To our knowledge, this is the first time that both size class and Pu isotopic data have been obtained for seawater samples. Within measurement uncertainties a single 240Pu/239Pu atom ratio of 0.18 was found for all sample collection depths and sample size fractions. This signifies a current, single Pu source in GOM waters, namely global fallout, and suggests that no measurable isotopic fractionation occurred during CFF processing. The majority of Pu was found in the low molecular weight fraction (< 1 kD). Colloidal Pu varied from 8% of the total in surface waters to < 1% in the deepest (250 m) seawater sample. Evidence suggests that the vertical distribution of Pu in GOM is primarily controlled by conservative mixing processes. The high Pu fraction found in the low molecular size fraction implies that most of the Pu is in the non-particle-reactive oxidized fraction, and is consistent with the conservative Pu behavior. The activity levels are in agreement with other studies which show a slow decrease in Pu with time due to continued mixing and relatively slow particle removal.  相似文献   

7.
In recent years, the field of AMS has expanded into many areas of science. This paper reviews a variety of applications of AMS in the marine environment, focusing particularly on recent developments and applications. Following a brief summary of the three main isotope techniques used in environmental studies: dating, tracing and source identification, a number of applications are considered. Traditional (14)C-dating is no longer the dominant application of AMS measurements, and together with measurements of (10)Be, (26)Al and (36)Cl, much of the research is now directed towards an understanding of global climate change via studies of oceanic circulation, atmospheric processes and past climates by cosmic ray exposure dating. Profiles of long-lived cosmogenic radionuclides in sediments and ice cores, as a function of depth and, thus, age, provide key information on past solar variability, production rate changes and atmospheric transport and deposition mechanisms. Useful paleoclimatic information may be derived from these archives both because deposition is influenced by climate and because solar activity (which influences production) and solar radiance (which influences climate) are correlated. In recent years, emphasis has been put on the development and application of AMS techniques for the measurement of heavier long-lived isotopes, including (99)Tc, (129)I, (236)U and other actinide isotopes. AMS combines ultra low detection limits and the possibility to analyse isotope ratios that can be difficult with traditional instruments and has been used in a number of applications on the consequences and uses of releases from nuclear energy. Finally, the use AMS in environmental sciences is expected to expand further in the foreseeable future with long-lived cosmogenic radionuclides contributing to a large body of knowledge on processes involving atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, biosphere, soils and sediments.  相似文献   

8.
Sediments used in this study were collected from different depths of eight sites in East China Sea in November 2002. The levels and distribution patterns of the selected organochlorine pesticides (OCPs=p,p'-DDT, o,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD, alpha-, beta-, gamma- and delta-HCH) in samples were investigated by the technique of sonication extraction followed by the analysis of gas chromatography (GC) coupled with a micro-electron capture detector (muECD). The concentrations of SigmaHCH and SigmaDDT in the surface sediments were in the range of <0.05-1.45 ng/g (mean 0.76 ng/g), <0.06-6.04 ng/g (mean 3.05 ng/g) based on dry weight (dw), respectively. In the vertical distributions, the SigmaHCH and SigmaDDT were in the range of <0.05-2.52 ng/g, <0.06-10.94 ng/g dw, respectively. Residues of OCPs varied significantly with different sampling sites. SigmaDDT in the surface sediments was correlated well with total organic carbon (TOC) content (r2=0.71), while SigmaHCH showed no obvious correlation. The distribution showed that the sediments from the vicinity estuary or near shore had higher TOC contents, and higher OCPs concentrations. The contamination record indicated an extensive use of OCPs in the catchments from Yangtze River in the past might greatly affect the OCP residues.  相似文献   

9.
Technetium-99 activity concentrations in seawater and biota from Irish coastal waters are presented. Time series measurements of 99Tc in seawater and Fucus vesiculosus from the western Irish Sea show that activity concentrations have increased in line with the increase in discharges of 99Tc from Sellafield. The peak in activity concentrations in both seawater and Fucus vesiculosus occurred in 1997 approximately two years after the peak in 99Tc discharges. The highest activity concentration recorded in Fucus vesiculosus showed a 29-fold increase over the mean concentration for the period 1988-1993. Technetium-99 activity concentrations were measured in fish, lobsters, prawns, mussels and oysters landed at major fishing ports on the east and northeast coasts of Ireland between 1996 and 1998. Concentration factors for 99Tc in the brown seaweed Fucus vesiculosus and certain species of fish, crustaceans and molluscs from the Irish Sea were estimated. In general, these concentration factors were higher than those in the literature which were derived from laboratory studies, but agreed well with values which were based on field studies. The mean committed effective doses to Irish typical and heavy seafood consumers due to 99Tc in the period 1996-1998 were 0.061 and 0.24 microSv, respectively.  相似文献   

10.
Assessment of persistent toxic substances in the environment of Egypt   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
The objective of this review is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the threats posed by persistent toxic substances (PTS) to the environment and human health in Egypt and to identify priorities, data gaps and recommendations for future intervention to control, reduce or eliminate releases of PTS. Data on available concentrations of persistent toxic substances in the different environmental compartments and their impacts on the ecosystem, and humans have been assembled and summarized. Despite extensive studies, most of the data available deal with limited studies or hot spot situations. Localized inputs of PTS have been identified from freshwater discharges in coastal areas (e.g., Nile estuaries and coastal lakes) and near sewage outfalls from highly industrialized and populated cities. Data are often missing for certain contaminants and in some compartments and geographical areas. The lack of standardized methodologies makes it difficult to compare and use existing data to provide exact conclusions on spatial and temporal trends. In spite of these restrictions, available data indicate that it is unlikely that present levels of cyclodiene pesticides would adversely affect marine organisms. Compounds which are proven to be of concern are DDT, PCBs, gamma-HCH, PAHs, HCB and organotin compounds. Other compounds are suspected to be ubiquitous but data are lacking. Based on few recent data, the reported levels of organochlorine pesticides in fish and human milk samples suggest a concentration decline during the 1990s consistent with the regulatory restrictions on the use of these compounds. It is essential to activate monitoring programs to fill data gaps in appropriate abiotic and biotic. Monitoring programs should be follow standard procedures and include improved QA/QC protocols.  相似文献   

11.
Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) are widely detected in the environment, although they have been banned in China since 1980s. To better understand the route-specific daily uptake of the pesticides by humans, a total of 322 food, dust, and air samples were collected in Shanghai, China, during 2008–2011. The median concentrations were 0.2–126.6 and 0.03–1.6 ng/g wet weight for DDTs (DDT and its metabolites) and HCHs, respectively, in different types of foods. The values in dust (indoors and outdoors) were 5.7–29.8 and 1.3–5.4 ng/g, and 13.9 × 10 3 and 2.6 × 10 3 ng/m3 in air (gas + particle) for DDTs and HCHs, respectively. The daily uptake of a pesticide by humans was calculated via the pesticide intake multiplied by its uptake efficiency. The uptake efficiencies of DDTs and HCHs in food through human intestines were estimated using bioaccessibility measured via an in vitro method simulating the human gastrointestinal digestion process. The total daily uptakes of DDTs and HCHs through three routes (i.e., ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact) were 79.4 and 4.9 ng/day, respectively, for children, and 131.1 and 8.0 ng/day, respectively, for adults. Ingestion via food and dust was the main route of human exposure to the pesticides, and the daily uptake of the pesticides via food consumption accounted for 95.0–99.2% of the total.  相似文献   

12.
The levels of organohalogenated contaminants, such as organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in four fish species (Acanthobrama marmid (kalashpa), Cyprinus carpio (carp), Chondrostoma regium (nose-carp), and Silurus glanis (wels)) from the Sir Dam Lake, Kahramanmaras, Turkey. These species were selected for their characteristic feeding behaviour and their importance to local human fish consumption. DDTs were the predominant organohalogenated contaminants in all species, with the p,p'-DDE contributing to more than 90% to the total DDTs. Other OCPs, such as hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) isomers, chlordanes and hexachlorobenzene (HCB) were found at much lower levels in all five species. The levels of PCBs and PBDEs (on wet weight basis) were lower than in similar species from European or American freshwater systems. PBDE data were measured for the first time in fish species from Turkish environment. Lipid-based concentrations of OCPs, PCBs and PBDEs were higher in wels than in the other species and this was related to its piscivorous feeding mode and to its higher lipid content. Contrarily, concentrations of pollutants in nose-carp were the lowest, in agreement with its more herbivorous diet. A preferential accumulation in muscle compared to liver was observed for all OCPs, PCBs, and PBDEs in wels and carp, while in nose-carp, a preferential accumulation in liver was observed only for PBDEs, p,p'-DDT and PCBs. Racemic amounts for alpha-HCH were measured in all investigated muscle and liver samples, except for carp muscle.  相似文献   

13.
Quantifying the competing rates of intake and elimination of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the human body is necessary to understand the levels and trends of POPs at a population level. In this paper we reconstruct the historical intake and elimination of ten polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and five organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from Australian biomonitoring data by fitting a population-level pharmacokinetic (PK) model. Our analysis exploits two sets of cross-sectional biomonitoring data for PCBs and OCPs in pooled blood serum samples from the Australian population that were collected in 2003 and 2009. The modeled adult reference intakes in 1975 for PCB congeners ranged from 0.89 to 24.5 ng/kg bw/day, lower than the daily intakes of OCPs ranging from 73 to 970 ng/kg bw/day. Modeled intake rates are declining with half-times from 1.1 to 1.3 years for PCB congeners and 0.83 to 0.97 years for OCPs. The shortest modeled intrinsic human elimination half-life among the compounds studied here is 6.4 years for hexachlorobenzene, and the longest is 30 years for PCB-74. Our results indicate that it is feasible to reconstruct intakes and to estimate intrinsic human elimination half-lives using the population-level PK model and biomonitoring data only. Our modeled intrinsic human elimination half-lives are in good agreement with values from a similar study carried out for the population of the United Kingdom, and are generally longer than reported values from other industrialized countries in the Northern Hemisphere.  相似文献   

14.
Organochlorine pesticides and heavy metals were analyzed in fish from remote mountain lakes and Lhasa River in Tibetan Plateau. Concentrations of summation operatorHCH, summation operatorDDT and HCB in fish muscles were in the range of 0.13-2.6 ng/g, 0.78-23 ng/g, 0.31-3.2 ng/g based on wet weight, respectively. Heavy metals were routinely found with different levels in fish. The Cu and Zn levels were relatively high with the maximum concentrations reaching 2.0 and 6.9 microg/g, respectively. Accumulation of OCPs and heavy metals are quite different in tissues and organs. Gill seems to accumulate more OCPs due to absorption by its larger surface per tissue. Heavy metal levels were generally high in liver, eggs and gill, and low in brain and muscle. Results from this study demonstrate that the Tibetan Plateau functions as a regional contaminant convergence zone by long-range atmospheric transport and orographic cold trapping.  相似文献   

15.
Despite low levels of organochlorine contaminants (OCs) in Antarctic biota, some compounds may exceed the levels in equivalent Arctic species, and previous studies have found biochemical evidence of pollutant exposure in south polar skuas (Catharacta maccormicki), a common marine top predator in the region. In this study we examined relationships between fitness components (fecundity and adult return rate between breeding seasons) and concentrations of OCs in this species. In 65 nests, both males and females were caught, and using principal component analyses (PCA) we produced composite measurements (PC1 and PC2) of six highly correlated OCs measured in blood samples. Although the concentrations of OC were below those documented to have reproductive effects in other aquatic birds, we found that the eggs of females with high levels of OCs in the blood hatched later, and their chicks were in poorer condition at hatching, than females with low OC levels. Thus OCs may delay reproduction and reduce foetal growth in the skuas. However, there was no relationship between the parents' OC residues and the occurrence of non-viable eggs, although the proportion of nests containing non-viable eggs was high (47%). Moreover, there were no significant relationships between OCs and reproductive variables in males, even if males had higher OC levels than females, and no associations between OCs and adult return rate between breeding seasons.  相似文献   

16.
Concerns about the carcinogenic and endocrine-disrupting characteristics of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) have led to a global ban on OCP use. However, OCPs persist in the environment for decades because of their long half-life. We evaluated serum levels of OCPs and their correlations with usual dietary intake and other lifestyle factors among 250 healthy women who participated as controls in the Shanghai Breast Cancer Study. Serum levels of hexachlorocyclohexane isomers (alpha-HCH, beta-HCH, gamma-HCH), dichloro-di-phenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) isomers (p,p'-DDE and p,p'-DDT), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), trans-nonachlor (TNC), and eight polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) congeners (IUPAC no. 74, 118, 138, 153, 170, 180, 183, and 187) were measured. Lifestyle factors and usual dietary habits over the past 5 years were assessed through an in-person interview. With the exception of PCB, total OCP levels in our study population were significantly higher than those observed in other countries. Age, income, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, number of pregnancies, and/or total duration of breastfeeding were all significantly correlated with all types of OCPs. Of the 20 food groups evaluated, correlations with serum total OCPs were observed for eggs (r=0.13), fresh beans (r=-0.17), tea (r=0.14), and animal fat (r=0.18). Multiple regression analyses showed that age and animal fat intake were positively associated with serum total level OCPs, while leafy vegetable and fresh bean consumption was negatively associated with OCPs level. Our study suggests that dietary intake may be an important contributor of serum levels of OCPs in Chinese women.  相似文献   

17.
The present work presents the results of 137Cs concentration in seawater, fish and sediments samples collect in 11 sampling points, crossing the Brazilian Southeastern coastal region, from Vitória (ES) to Santos (SP), on a routine basis from 1997 to 2002. This monitoring program was carried out by the Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN/MCT), in cooperation with the Instituto de Estudos do Mar Almirante Paulo Moreira (IEAPM/Brazilian Navy), aiming at determining artificial radionuclides in marine samples. Additionally to the 137Cs results, 90Sr concentrations in fish samples from 1998 to 2002 are also reported.The 137Cs in seawater follows a lognormal distribution, with a geometric mean of 1.8 Bq m-3 and a geometric standard deviation of 1.4 (n=54), decay corrected to June/2002. For 137Cs levels in fish samples a geometric mean of 0.19 Bq kg−1 and a geometric standard deviation of 2.9 (n=39), decay corrected to June/2002, with a range of 0.03 to 1.7 Bq kg−1, were obtained. Based on the 137Cs mean concentration in fish as well as in seawater, a transfer factor of 1 × 102 was calculated, which is quite in agreement with the recommended value found in the Safety Report Serie 19.  相似文献   

18.
Persistent organochlorine pesticides pollutants (OCPs) have been reported to occur at relatively high concentrations in some Chinese waters. In order to map the distribution of organochlorine pesticides in the surface water throughout China, samples were collected from over 600 sites in seven major river basins and three main internal rivers drainage areas during 2003 and 2004. The surface water samples were analyzed for the representative organochlorine pesticides contaminants including lindane (gamma-HCH), p,p'-DDT and heptachlor epoxide. In general, the most frequently detected compound was lindane, being detected in 83.9% of samples (mean=31.3 ng/l; range <0.17-860 ng/l), and the highest concentration was present in the Yellow River basin. p,p'-DDT was detected in 63.1% of the samples collected (mean=14.6 ng/l; range <0.14-368 ng/l) with the highest concentration present in the Huaihe River basin. Heptachlor epoxide was detected in only 9.3% of water samples (range <0.11-10 ng/l). Measured concentrations for the three compounds were low and rarely exceed the environment quality standard for surface water of China. Lindane was more frequently detected at much higher concentrations in the rivers of northern China compared with those of southern China. The sites with higher concentration of lindane and p,p'-DDT mainly occurred in the Yellow River and Huaihe River basins, so the results of this investigation indicate that the organochlorine pesticide contamination of Yellow River and Huaihe River basins should be of particular concern relative to the other basins. When compared with other regions of the world, it appears that the Chinese surface water is moderately polluted by lindane and p,p'-DDT.  相似文献   

19.
Assessment of human exposure to environmental persistent organic pollutants such as organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) based on the levels in human breast milk provides a reasonable tool not only to assess the contaminant burden in mothers but also to assess potential exposure of breast-fed neonates. There are limited data on levels of PCBs and OCPs in humans but no previous reports from Turkey on chemically determined levels PAHs in human milk. The aim of this study was to report the levels and accumulation profiles of OCPs, PCBs and PAHs in 47 breast milk samples obtained from a Mediterranean city, Mersin. High resolution analyses were performed by a gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometer (GC–MS). Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (4.4′-DDE) was the dominant pollutant. Beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (ß-HCH), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (4.4′-DDT), dieldrin, hexachlorobenzene, oxy-chlordane, cis-heptachlorepoxide were the other main OCPs detected. Mean levels of ΣPCB congeners and WHOPCB-TEQ were 9.94 and 0.001 ng/g lipid, respectively. PCB 153 showed the highest concentration (3.37 ng/g lipid), followed by PCB 138 and 180. For the dioxin-like PCBs, PCB 118 was the dominant (0.97 ng/g lipid). Naphthalene, phenanthrene, pyrene and fluoranthene were the major PAHs among the 16 PAHs detected. The estimated daily intakes of DDTs, PCBs, HCHs and HCB were not exceeded the tolerable daily intake (TDI) proposed by the Health Canada Guideline. These results indicate that the neonates of Mersin city are exposed to persistent organic pollutants analyzed in this study. However, neonates born in Mersin province are less exposed than the ones born in other regions, considering OCP and PCB levels in breast milk.  相似文献   

20.
Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

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