Air Quality Modeling in the South Coast Air Basin of California: What Do the Numbers Really Mean?

Abstract

This study evaluates air quality model sensitivity to input and to model components. Simulations are performed using the California Institute of Technology (CIT) airshed model. Results show the impacts on ozone (O₃) concentration in the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) of California because of changes in: (1) input data, including meteorological conditions (temperature, UV radiation, mixing height, and wind speed), boundary conditions, and initial conditions (ICs); and (2) model components, including advection solver and chemical mechanism. O₃ concentrations are strongly affected by meteorological conditions and, in particular, by temperature. ICs also affect O₃ concentrations, especially in the first 2 days of simulation. On the other hand, boundary conditions do not significantly affect the absolute peak O₃ concentration, although they do affect concentrations near the inflow boundaries. Moreover, predicted O₃ concentrations are impacted considerably by the chemical mechanism. In addition, dispersion of pollutants is affected by the advection routine used to calculate its transport. Comparison among CIT, California Photochemical Grid Model (CALGRID), and Urban Airshed Model air quality models suggests that differences in O₃ predictions are mainly caused by the different chemical mechanisms used. Additionally, advection solvers contribute to the differences observed among model predictions. Uncertainty in predicted peak O₃ concentration suggests that air quality evaluation should not be based solely on this single value but also on trends predicted by air quality models using a number of chemical mechanisms and with an advection solver that is mass conservative.     

Diurnal and Weekday Variations in the Source Contributions of Ozone Precursors in California’s South Coast Air Basin

Abstract

For at least 30 years, ozone (O₃) levels on weekends in parts of California’s South Coast (Los Angeles) Air Basin (SoCAB) have been as high as or higher than on weekdays, even though ambient levels of O₃ precursors are lower on weekends than on weekdays. A field study was conducted in the Los Angeles area during fall 2000 to test whether proposed relationships between emission sources and ambient nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) levels can account for observed diurnal and day-of-week variations in the concentration and proportions of precursor pollutants that may affect the efficiency and rate of O₃ formation. The contributions to ambient NMHC by motor vehicle exhaust and evaporative emissions, estimated using chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor modeling, ranged from 65 to 85% with minimal day-of-week variation. Ratios of ambient NO_x associated with black carbon (BC) to NO_x associated with carbon monoxide (CO) were approximately 1.25 ± 0.22 during weekdays and 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.52 ± 0.07 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. These results demonstrate that lower NO_x emissions from diesel exhaust can be a major factor causing lower NO_x mixing ratios and higher NMHC/NO_x ratios on weekends. Nonmobile sources showed no significant day-of-week variations in their contributions to NMHC. Greater amounts of gasoline emissions are carried over on Friday and Saturday evenings but are, at most, a minor factor contributing to higher NMHC/NO_x ratios on weekend mornings.     

Characterization of PM25 and PM10 in the South Coast Air Basin of Southern California: Part 2—Temporal Variations

ABSTRACT

The South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) conducted a 1-year special particulate monitoring study from January 1995 to February 1996. This monitoring data indicates that high PM₁₀ and PM_{2 5} concentrations were observed in the fall (October, November, and December), with November concentrations being the highest. During the rest of the year, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ masses gradually increased from January to September. Monthly PM₁₀ mass varied from 20 to 120 |ig/m³, and monthly PM₂₅ mass varied from 13 to 63 |j.g/m³. The PM_2.5-to-PM₁₀ ratio varied daily and ranged between 22 and 96%. Two types of high-PM days were observed. The first type was observed under fall stagnation conditions, which lead to high secondary species concentrations. The second type was observed under high wind conditions, which lead to high primary coarse particles of crustal components. The highest 24-hr average PM₁₀ concentration (226.3 |ig/m³) was observed at the Fontana station, while the highest PM₂₅ concentration (129.3 |ig/m³) was observed at the Diamond Bar station.     

Characterization of PM25 and PM10 in the South Coast Air Basin of Southern California: Part 1—Spatial Variations

ABSTRACT

In December 1994, the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) initiated a comprehensive program, the PM₁₀ Technical Enhancement Program (PTEP), to characterize fine PM in the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB). A 1-year special particulate monitoring project was conducted from January 1995 to February 1996 as part of the PTEP. Under this enhanced monitoring, HNO₃, NH₃, and speciated PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations were measured at five stations (Anaheim, downtown Los Angeles, Diamond Bar, Fontana, and Rubidoux) in the SCAB and at one background station at San Nicolas Island. PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ mass and 43 individual species were analyzed for a full chemical speciation of the particle data. The PTEP data indicate that the most abundant chemical components of PM₁₀ and PM₂₅ in the SCAB are NH₄+ (8-9% of PM₁₀ and 14-17% of PM₂₅), NO₃ ^- (23-26% of PM₁₀ and 28-41% of PM₂₅), SO₄= (6-11% of PM₁₀ and 9-18% of PM_{2 5}), organic carbon (OC) (15-19% of PM₁₀ and 18-26% of PM_2.5), and elemental carbon (EC) (5-8% of PM₁₀ and 8-13% of PM₂₅). On an annual average basis, PM₂₅ comprises 52-59% of the SCAB PM₁₀. Annual average PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations showed strong spatial variations, low at coastal sites and high at inland sites. Annual average PM₁₀ concentrations varied from 40.8 ug/m³ at Anaheim to 76.8 ug/m³ at Rubidoux, while annual average PM_2.5 concentrations varied from 21.7 ug/m³ at Anaheim to 39.8 ug/m³ at Rubidoux. The chemical characterizations of the PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations, as well as their spatial variations, were examined; the important findings are summarized in this paper, and the temporal variations are discussed in the companion paper.¹     

Evolution of the Magnitude and Spatial Extent of the Weekend Ozone Effect in California’s South Coast Air Basin, 1981–2000

Abstract

Since the mid-1970s, ozone (O₃) levels in portions of California’s South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) on weekends have been as high as or higher than levels on weekdays, even though emissions of O₃ precursors are lower on weekends. Analysis of the ambient data indicates that the intensity and spatial extent of the weekend O₃ effect are correlated with day-of-week variations in the extent of O₃ inhibition caused by titration with nitric oxide (NO), reaction of hydroxyl radical (OH) with nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and rates of O₃ accumulation. Lower NO mixing ratios and higher NO₂/oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) ratios on weekend mornings allow O₃ to begin accumulating approximately an hour earlier on weekends. The weekday/weekend differences in the duration of O₃ accumulation remained relatively constant from 1981 to 2000. In contrast, the rate of O₃ accumulation decreased by one-third to one-half over the same period; the largest reductions occurred in the central basin on weekdays. Trends in mixing ratios of O₃ precursors show a transition to lower volatile organic compound (VOC)/NO_x ratios caused by greater reductions in VOC emissions. Reductions in VOC/NO_x ratios were greater on weekdays, resulting in higher VOC/NO_x ratios on weekends relative to weekdays. Trends in VOC/NO_x ratios parallel the downward trend in peak O₃ levels, a shift in the location of peak O₃ from the central to the eastern portion of the basin, and an increase in the magnitude and spatial extent of the weekend O₃ effect.     

Nitrogen Trioxide: Key Intermediate in the Chemistry of Polluted Air?

It is proposed that peroxyacetyl nitrate and its homologues are formed in polluted air via hydrogen abstraction from the corresponding aldehyde by nitrogen trioxide, followed by (a relatively fast) combination of the resulting acyl radical with oxygen and NO₂. This mechanism provides a simple explanation for the formation of nitric acid, HNO3, as well. Nitrogen trioxide should be able to abstract hydrogen atoms from hydrocarbons, since the H-ONO₂ bond strength is about 100 kcal/mole.     

What do we really know about the impacts of one of the 100 worst invaders in Europe? A reality check

Invasive species are one of the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide, and to successfully manage their introductions is a major challenge for society. Knowledge on the impacts of an invasive species is essential for motivating decision makers and optimally allocating management resources. We use a prominent invasive fish species, the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) to objectively quantify the state of scientific knowledge on its impacts. Focusing on how native fish species are affected by round goby invasions, we analyzed 113 peer-reviewed papers and found that impacts are highly ecosystem and time scale dependent. We discovered round goby impacts to be profound, but surprisingly complex. Even if identical native species were affected, the impacts remained less comparable across ecosystems than expected. Acknowledging the breadth but also limitations in scientific knowledge on round goby impacts would greatly improve scientists’ ability to conduct further research and inform management measures.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0718-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Parametrization of groundwater quality of the Quaternary aquifer in N’Djamena (Chad), Lake Chad Basin: application of numerical and multivariate analyses

The urban groundwater of the Quaternary aquifer of the Lake Chad basin in N’Djamena has been subject to many hydrochemical studies. However, the results are often not presented in a way that enables water quality managers to make an appropriate decisions, which restrict development and poverty reduction efforts. The objective of the present study was to contribute the improved management of the local groundwater resources. A total of 85 groundwater samples were interpreted using hydrochemical techniques associated with integrated numerical indices and multivariate statistical analysis. The hydrochemical results coupled with the relative residence time of water have shown that the chemical composition of these waters is linked to geogenic and anthropogenic factors and to their proximity to the Chari-Logone rivers. These investigations showed that the groundwater quality in N’Djamena is characterized by a high spatial variability. This study also assessed the suitability of groundwater for user needs and identified areas which are more/less favorable for a specific use. The evaluation of water quality and its suitability for human consumption is also a problem of optimizing data acquisition strategy, and this study used the correlation between water quality index (WQI) and electrical conductivity (EC) to orientate future data acquisition strategies. This parametrization can assist the decision makers and water management professionals in evaluating groundwater availability and setting up a robust water quality management plan in areas with similar hydrogeological and climatic conditions.

     

Use of Probabilistic Methods to Understand the Conservatism in California’s Approach to Assessing Health Risks Posed by Air Contaminants

Many state and federal agencies have prepared risk assessment guidelines, which describe methods for quantifying health risks associated with exposure to vapors and particulates emitted from point and area sources (e.g., California Air Pollution Control Officers Association [CAPCOA] under the Air Toxics “Hot Spots” Act [Assembly Bill 2588] and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA] under the Clean Air Act). In general, these guidelines recommend or require the use of upper bound “point” estimates for numerous exposure parameters. This methodology yields a single risk estimate, which is intended not to underestimate the true risk and may significantly overstate it. This paper describes a risk assessment of a facility’s airborne emissions using a probabilistic approach, which presents a range and distribution of risk estimates rather than a single point estimate. The health risks to residents living near a food processing facility, as estimated using techniques recommended by California AB2588, are compared to the results of a probabilistic analysis. Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) were identified as the emitted chemicals of concern. The point estimate method recommended by CAPCOA resulted in estimates that were greater than the 99.99th percentile risk predicted by the probabilistic analysis. As shown in other assessments of persistent airborne chemicals, secondary or indirect exposure pathways (i.e., ingestion of beef, ingestion of cow’s milk, and ingestion of mother’s milk) rather than inhalation, were the greatest contributors to risk. In this analysis, the probability distributions for the cancer potency factor and ingestion of cow’s milk had the largest impact on the results of the 33 exposure factors considered.     

Recreational scuba diving in Caribbean marine protected areas: do the users pay?

There are more than 200 marine protected areas (MPAs) in the Caribbean and Central America that contain coral reefs and are therefore theoretically attractive to scuba divers. One fifth of dive operators in 30 countries were surveyed for their use of MPAs: the majority are located within 20 km of at least one MPA and 46% conduct at least 80% of their diving within a MPA. An estimated 15 million dives take place outside of Florida each year, half of these occurring inside MPAs. Only 25% of MPAs containing coral reefs charge divers an entry or user fee, which is most usually USD 2-3 levied per dive or per diver. The revenue generated by these fees is estimated at USD 1-2 million annually, but the potential for generating income has not been fully realized. A significant contribution to the cost of regional conservation could be achieved if higher fees were applied more widely than at present.     

Modification of the biochemical pathways of plants induced by ozone: what are the varied routes to change?

When plants are observed under a low dose of ozone, some physiological and metabolic shifts occur. Barring extreme injury such as tissue damage or stomata closure, most of these disruptive changes are likely to have been initiated at the level of gene expression. The belief is oxidative products formed in ozone exposed leaves, e.g. hydrogen peroxide, are responsible for much of the biochemical adjustments. The first line of defense is a range of antioxidants, such as ascorbate and glutathione, but if this defense is overwhelmed, subsequent actions occur, similar to systemic acquired resistance or general wounding. Yet there are seemingly unrelated metabolic responses which are also triggered, such as early senescence. We discuss here the current understanding of gene control and signal transduction/control in order to increase our comprehension of how ozone alters the basic metabolism of plants and how plants counteract or cope with ozone.     

Water resources development and impact assessment in the Mekong Basin: which way to go?

The Mekong River Basin is facing rapid changes, including intensive plans for water development. While the different development projects are considered to be important for economic development, the negative impacts that they are likely to cause for ecosystems and livelihoods are estimated to be remarkable. Yet, existing impact assessment processes seem in many cases to be inadequate to capture even the actual magnitude of the impacts at different levels. This article looks at the different impact assessment processes and their challenges in the basin. It is argued that impact assessment in this kind of dynamic and complex setting requires better coordination between assessments at different levels. Basinwide impact assessment would benefit from a more adaptive, multilevel approach that makes better use of assessments from local levels up to the regional level and builds on more participatory and interdisciplinary methods. Successful impact assessment also requires the recognition of the highly political nature of water development and related planning processes.     

Sediment quality in littoral regions of the Gulf of Cádiz: a triad approach to address the influence of mining activities

To evaluate sediment quality in different areas in the Gulf of Cádiz affected by mining activities, an integrative approach to assessment was used: the Sediment Quality Triad (SQT). Sediment samples were collected at six stations and subjected to replicated sediment acute and chronic toxicity tests, and comprehensive sediment chemistry analyses. Organisms collected synoptically at the same stations were analyzed for histopathological lesions and chemical concentrations in their tissues to determine 'in situ' alteration and bioavailability, in place of benthic community structure. The results obtained for each component were linked to the SQT using different methodologies of interpretation and expression of the integrated approach: (a) multivariate analysis, (b) significant statistical differences compared to the reference stations, (c) ANOVA-based pie charts, and (d) classical methods using triangles and the SQT index of pollution. SQT results indicated that the highest pollution was mainly associated with metals from mining activities and polyaromatic hydrocarbons in the Ría of Huelva. The use of histopathological measures and bioaccumulation of metals, improved the characterization of 'gray areas' of pollution and in the determination of the bioavailability of metals.     

Sustainability or collapse: what can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature?

Understanding the history of how humans have interacted with the rest of nature can help clarify the options for managing our increasingly interconnected global system. Simple, deterministic relationships between environmental stress and social change are inadequate. Extreme drought, for instance, triggered both social collapse and ingenious management of water through irrigation. Human responses to change, in turn, feed into climate and ecological systems, producing a complex web of multidirectional connections in time and space. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleoenvironmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future.     

Do frogs really eat cardamom? Understanding the myth of crop damage by amphibians in the Western Ghats,India

In the Western Ghats of India, amphibians are culled at cardamom plantations since they are perceived to consume cardamom. To better understand the relationship between amphibians and cardamom, a study was undertaken at these plantations, which harbor numerous threatened and range-restricted amphibians. We undertook questionnaire surveys with 298 respondents at 148 plantations across southern India. Time-activity budget and diet analysis surveys were undertaken to determine whether amphibians really consumed cardamom. The conception that amphibians eat cardamom was found to be widespread especially among small-sized plantations, leading to negative perceptions and a lack of interest in amphibian conservation. The plantation community perceives a substantial economic loss due to amphibians, even though this is non-existent as revealed by our field surveys. These perceptions would lead to a continued intolerance of amphibian presence in plantations. A suitable outreach initiative re-affirming facts and spreading awareness on the positive role of amphibians would need to be conducted to negate this age-old myth.