Examining the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in north-eastern NSW,Australia

The coastal wetlands of north-eastern New South Wales (NSW) Australia are increasingly being affected by anthropogenic factors such as urbanisation, residential development and agricultural development. However, little is known about their vulnerability to sea level rise as a result of climate change. The aim of this research is to predict the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the coastal wetland communities. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was used to predict the potential impacts of sea level rise. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for mapping and analysis. It was found that a meter rise in sea level could decrease coastal wetlands such as Inland fresh marshes from about 225.67 km² in February 2009 to about 168.04 km² by the end of the century in north-eastern NSW, Australia. The outcomes from this research can contribute to enhancing wetland conservation and management in NSW.     

Implications of sea level rise for coastal dune habitat conservation in Wales,UK

The potential impact of future sea level rise and climate change on 15 Welsh coastal dune systems has been investigated. Historical Trend Analysis was undertaken using Ordnance Survey maps to quantify past shoreline change and to permit extrapolation of past trends to predict possible future shoreline positions by 2080–2100. Predictions were also made using the Bruun Rule relationship between sea level rise and shoreline response and an integrated method of assessment, Expert Geomorphological Assessment (EGA), which provides a ‘best estimate’ of future coastline change, taking into account such factors as geological constraints, the nature of past, present and future environmental forcing factors, and known coastal process–response relationships. The majority of the 15 systems investigated experienced a net increase in dune area over the last 100–120 years. Only one (Whiteford Burrows) experienced significant net area loss (>5 ha). EGA predictions suggest that several systems are likely to experience significant net loss of dune habitat over the next century, whilst continued net gain is likely to occur for systems where sediment supply rates remain high. Little net change is predicted in some systems. Considering the 15 dune systems together, it is considered unlikely that net dune habitat loss will exceed net gain over the next 100 years provided that there are no major disruptions to sediment supply and natural coastal processes.     

Shoreline changes in response to sea level rise along Digha Coast,Eastern India: an analytical approach of remote sensing,GIS and statistical techniques

Shoreline is one of the rapidly changing linear features of the coastal zone which is dynamic in nature. The issue of shoreline changes due to sea level rise over the next century has increasingly become a major social, economic and environmental concern to a large number of countries along the coast, where it poses a serious problem to the environment and human settlements. As a consequence, some coastal scientists have advocated analyzing and predicting coastal changes on a more local scale. The present study demonstrates the potential of remote sensing, geospatial and statistical techniques for monitoring the shoreline changes and sea level rise along Digha coast, the eastern India. In the present study, multi-resolution and multi temporal satellite images of Landsat have been utilized to demarcate shoreline positions during 1972, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. The statistical techniques, linear regression, end-point rate and regression coefficient (R²) have been used to find out the shoreline change rates and sea level change during the periods of 1972–2010. Monthly and annual mean sea level data for three nearby station viz., Haldia, Paradip and Gangra from 1972 to 2006 have been used to this study. Finally, an attempt has been made to find out interactive relationship between the sea level rise and shoreline change of the study area. The results of the present study show that combined use of satellite imagery, sea level data and statistical methods can be a reliable method in correlating shoreline changes with sea level rise.     

Economic aspects of global change impacts and response strategies in the coastal zone of The Netherlands

Economic aspects of possible land use strategies and protection measures in coastal zones as a response to global environmental change are examined. First, some key elements are mentioned that are of critical importance for water and land management in coastal zones. Next, various socio-economic repercussions are discussed. In this context, research needs will be addressed. Subsequently, these issues are considered for the case of The Netherlands. It is concluded that integrated modelling and analysis is just starting and needs to receive more attention in order to study long run economic costs, benefits and changes in coastal zones.     

海平面上升对珠江口水位影响的分析

珠江三角洲水位变化存在着大量不确定性、不精确性,这些特性既具有模糊特征,也具有灰色特征。在分析珠江三角洲灯笼山站年平均水位的变化特征和闸坡站海平面变化趋势的基础上,利用灰关联法分析代表站灯笼山站年平均水位与流量、海平面、潮差等8个因素的关系,年平均水位与影响因素之间的灰关联度均大于0.7,说明各因子对年平均水位均产生显著影响,其中海平面变化与年平均水位的灰关联度为0.736,说明海平面变化是年平均水位的重要影响因素。选取灰关联度较大的（马＋三）流量、闸坡站海平面、灯笼山站的年最高水位、年最低水位、年平均低潮、年平均潮差这6个指标进行主成分分析。结果表明：第一主成分为径流潮汐作用,第二主成分的代表因素为海平面上升,第三主成分的代表因素为年最高水位;其中海平面上升为代表的第二主成分对年平均水位的贡献率为20.1%。因此,海平面上升对灯笼山站年平均水位的影响虽然弱于径流潮汐作用,但其影响也是显著的。     

Morphologic development, relative sea level rise and sustainable management of water and sediment in the Ebre Delta, Spain

The Ebre (Ebro) Delta is one of the most important wetland areas in the western Mediterranean. Ca. 40 % of the delta plain is less than 0.5 m above mean sea level and part of the southern margin of the delta is at mean sea level in an area protected by dikes. Both mean rates of secular subsidence in the Ebre Delta and eustatic sea level rise are ca. 1 – 2 mm/yr. Thus, the present annual relative sea level rise (RSLR) rate in the Ebre Delta may be at least 3 mm/yr. Measured accretion rates in the delta range from 4 mm/yr in the wetlands surrounding the river mouth to <0.1 mm/yr in impounded salt marshes and rice fields. The annual sediment deficit in the delta plain to offset RSLR is close to 1 million m³/yr. Accretion rates in the rice fields prior to the construction of large dams in the Ebre watershed were higher than RSLR rates, from 3 – 15 mm/yr. At present, >99 % of the riverine sediments are retained in the reservoirs and rice fields are losing ca. 0.2 mm/yr. Future management plans should take RSLR into account and include control of freshwater and sediment flows from the river in order to offset negative effects from waterlogging and salt intrusion, and maintain land elevation. This will include the partial removal of sediments trapped behind the Ribarroja and Mequinença dams. Stocks and inputs of sediments in the corresponding reservoirs are large enough for land elevation of ca. 50 cm in the whole delta plain. Advantages of this solution include (1) new sediments to the delta to offset subsidence (via rice fields) and coastal retreat, (2) enhanced functioning of the delta (productivity and nutrient processing), (3) avoidance of accumulation of sediments in the reservoirs. Hence, it is important to manage river discharges at the dams from an integrated viewpoint, whereas currently only hydropower and agricultural requirements are considered. It is also crucial to maintain periods of high discharge, to have enough river energy to transport as much sediments as possible.     

The practice of coastal zone management in Portugal

The practice of coastal zone management in Portugal is very recent. Key issues and considerations about natural shoreline dynamics, main policy instruments, and lessons learned from the EU Demonstration Programmes on Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Portugal will be outlined in this paper in an attempt to understand how the practice of ICZM and its prospects are. Coastal zone management problems and their associated side effects, as well as national and international evolution patterns will be drawn. Some means of achieving better coastal zone management practices and ways of addressing some of its forefront issues are also identified. Special attention will go to erosion problems. The pressure induced by urban development and economic activities on coastal areas is increasing. Poor sediment availability combined with years of neglected management and over-exploitation of resources have had a negative impact, and there are many areas showing evidence of coastal erosion. There is a need to improve policies and instruments of coastal planning and management. Coastal zone management plans are being developed for the nine sectors of the continental Portuguese coast, providing a full analysis of coastal systems and a delimitation of uses in relation to the carrying capacity of the shoreline.     

Predicting the spatial distribution of mangroves in a South African estuary in response to sea level rise,substrate elevation change and a sea storm event

The spatial distribution of mangroves in the Mngazana Estuary under sea level rise induced by climate change, together with different substrate elevation change scenarios was predicted for 2020, 2050 and 2100. The present inundation frequency tolerance range was from 0.8 to 31.2 %, equivalent to substrate elevation thresholds of 1.1 and 1.7 m amsl. These thresholds were measured by field surveys and analysis of a gauge station situated near the mouth of the estuary. The predictions were based on the assumption that the inundation frequency tolerance range of mangrove stands remains constant in the future. Through the use of a digital elevation model an initial increase of 2.10 ha year^?1 was found in mangrove area between present and 2020 (from 122.6 to 143.6 ha). This was due to habitat becoming available that is currently too compacted for seedling establishment to occur. This compaction resulted from human and cattle traffic for grazing. Thereafter there would be a mean loss of 0.66 ha year^?1 from 2020 through 2100. Landward migration of mangroves would not take place due to the elevation limit of adjacent non-mangrove areas. In addition, the loss rate would increase to 1.01 ha year^?1 under insufficient sediment accretion, but would decrease to 0.18 ha year^?1 under thriving mangroves condition. The analysis of sea storm event in September 2008 showed that local water level increased by 28 cm and maximum affected area was 87.0 ha (about 71 % of mangrove stands). The inundation continued over 5 days. The results indicated that the combination impact of sea level rise, substrate elevation change and sea storm would possibly be a threat to tropical African estuaries with large flat intertidal areas and mangroves.     

The impact of sea-level rise along the Polish Baltic coast

A DTM (Digital Terrain Model) map and the analytical powers of GIS (Geographical Information System) were used in deterministic and probabilistic methods for analysis of inundation of a coastal area. These methods were applied to evaluate the effects of a rise in sea-level on the coastal zone of the Puck Lagoon (Poland) over a period of 100 years. The analysis evaluated the following aspects: the threat to man-made objects such as buildings and roads; changes in the impact of the sea on the coastal environment manifested as the frequency of flooding of grasslands and marshland in the coastal depression, and the formation of a dune embankment. The analysis covered a ca. 5 km stretch of low-lying coastline, in which there are two rapidly growing villages and a nature reserve. The study showed that a sealevel rise of 40 cm would increase the frequency of flooding in the area and would probably cause the dune ridge vegetation to deteriorate.     

Sea-level rise and coastal vulnerability: an assessment of Andhra Pradesh coast,India through remote sensing and GIS

The eustatic sea-level rise due to global warming is predicted to be about 18 to 59 cm by the 2100 (IPCC 2007), which necessitates identification and protection of vulnerable sections of coasts. Assessment of vulnerability level of Andhra Pradesh (AP) coast as an example is demonstrated in this study using five physical variables, namely coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean spring tide range, and significant wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was prepared by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the five variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into low-, moderate-, high-, and very high risk categories. About 43% of the 1,030-km-long AP coast is under very high-risk, followed by another 35% under high-risk if the sea level rises by ~0.6 m displacing more than 1.29 million people living within 2.0 m elevation in 282 villages in the region.     

The occurrence of glycolic acid in coastal sea water

A reasonably fast and reliable chemical method for the determination of glycolic acid in sea water is described in detail. It consists of adsorption of glycolic acid by alumina, followed by extraction with sulphuric acid and then colorimetry. The overall efficiency of recovery of this method, which is standardized internally, is approximately 67%, and about 20-fold concentration of glycolic acid is achieved. Using this method, the occurrence of glycolic acid in Ipswich Bay (Gulf of Maine, USA) was studied over a period of 6 months and was found to fluctuate between 0 and 80 g/l. The zero values occurred in January, when the phytoplankton chlorophyll values were also at their winter minimum.     

Using enhanced dasymetric mapping techniques to improve the spatial accuracy of sea level rise vulnerability assessments

This article reports on the application of dasymetric mapping techniques to interpolate and disaggregate block group population counts to smaller areal units (i.e., tax parcels) and derive surface population models with more realistic representations of population distributions in our residential study area in Miami-Dade, Florida. Three methods of dasymetric interpolation were tested: (i) binary, (ii) three-class, and (iii) limiting variable. Our enhanced limiting variable approach introduced an adjustment factor for parcel vacancy rates in the dasymetric calculations, and applied dasymetric mapping techniques to disaggregate future population projections to the tax lot level of analysis. The limiting variable interpolation generated the lowest coefficient of variation (0.188), followed by the three-class interpolation (0.645). We also found that population densities vary substantially within land use classes of single family, medium density and high density classes, and these variations also highlighted the importance of incorporating vacancy rates when interpolating population counts to categorical land use data. Overall, the enhanced dasymetric mapping technique is particularly useful for examining the impact of sea-level rise as its derivatives are compatible with high resolution LiDAR and orthoimagery data. Coastal counties can also benefit from such high resolution surface population models to enhance the accuracy of hazard-related vulnerability assessments and to guide the development of relevant shore zone conservation and adaptation strategies.     

渤海湾海岸带表层沉积物中黑碳的分布特征

在渤海湾西海岸潮间带、近海和主要河流采集了85个表层沉积物样品,对黑碳（BC）的质量分数及其分布规律进行了研究,并探讨了BC与沉积物粒度的关系。结果表明：（1）渤海湾海岸带表层沉积物中BC的平均质量分数为（0.65±0.42）mg·g^-1,占总有机碳的比例为16.8%±7.5%,均高于我国其它海岸带;（2）潮间带沉积物中BC的质量分数存在明显的南北分区差异（以天津港码头为界）,北区（0.92mg·g^-1）比南区（0.22mg·g^-1）平均高4倍以上;近海和河流样品BC的质量分数也有一定程度的＂北高南低＂趋势,表明BC在海岸带运移扩散的继承性,河流输入可能是主要途径;（3）潮间带沉积物粒度表现为＂北区细＂（以粘土质粉砂主）而＂南区粗＂（以砂为主）,反映两个区域的水动力条件和沉积环境不同,是造成BC质量分数区域差异的主要原因。     

GIS and remote sensing as tools for conducting geo-hazards risk assessment along Gulf of Aqaba coastal zone,Egypt

Satellite remote sensing data, in addition to Geographic Information Systems (GIS), offers an excellent alternative to conventional mapping techniques in monitoring and mapping of geo-hazards areas. One of the most sustainable development projects in Egypt has been accomplished in Sinai, especially along and around the Gulf of Aqaba and the Gulf of Suez. Variations along the coastal zone of the Gulf of Aqaba have been identified through the analysis of multi-temporal satellite images with the aid of GIS analysis. The study area is subject to rapid and increasing changes in land-use/land-cover that resulting from natural and human activities such as flash flooding, seismic activity, landslides, and tourist and urban activities. This is in addition to the construction projects of roads, ports, PowerStation stations, mineral exploration, beaches, and tourist villages resulting from major environmental impacts. The current study aims to use Remote Sensing and GIS tools to investigate, monitor, and assess geo-hazards through the building of a geographical database. Several techniques have been developed over the last decade mostly to study the geological and geomorphologic characteristics of the terrain; land-use and land-cover changes. These are based on satellite imagery and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to determine the topographic features, and geo-hazards maps. It is concluded that integrated approaches to monitoring can successfully be used to assess the environmental impacts along the Gulf of Aqaba coastal zone.     

Dissolved nutrient dynamics along the southwest coastal waters of India during northeast monsoon: a case study

Dissolved nutrients, Chl-a and primary productivity were measured from seven transects along the coastal waters of the southeastern Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Ten major estuaries were chosen to study the influence of estuarine discharge on the nutrient dynamics in the coastal waters. The mean water discharge of the estuaries in the north (64.8?±?18?×?10⁵?m³?d^?1) was found to be higher than those in the south (30.6?±?21.4?×?10⁵?m³?d^?1), whereas the nutrient concentrations were found to be higher in the estuaries of the south. The results from the offshore waters were discussed in accordance with the depth contour classification, that is, shelf (depth?≤?30?m) and slope waters (depth?≥?30?m). Our results suggest that the estuarine discharge plays a major role in the nutrient distribution in near shore shelf waters, whereas in shelf and slope waters, it was mainly controlled by in situ biological processes. The inorganic form of N to P ratios were found to be higher than Redfield ratio in slope waters when compared with shelf waters, suggesting that PO₄^3? (<0.15?µmol?L^?1) is a limiting nutrient for primary production. The multivariate statistical analysis revealed that the nutrient dynamics in the coastal waters was controlled by both biological and physical processes.     

Spatial analysis of traffic and risks in the coastal zone

Management of the coastal zone for the purposes of conservation and sustainability is a well-described concept in the literature. This paper describes the importance of modelling various forms of maritime traffic as an intrinsic element of this process. Effective use of GIS in this context implies extensive data acquisition and cleaning, vessel path simulation, traffic density maps, and incident (spills or accidents) distribution when applicable. Risks can be determined by evaluating detrimental occurrences relative to exposure levels. Effective visualization and quantitative analyses can then be fruitfully applied to various coastal zone management spheres, such as oceans use planning, emergency response planning, and marine protected area delineation.     

Conservation and management-oriented ecological research in the coastal zone of Baja California, Mexico

This paper presents the main results of two studies of contrasting natural and man-induced conditions along the Pacific coast of Baja California (Mexico), based on the assumption that ecological insight can be obtained from man-induced modifications insofar as relevant activities are explicitly addressed as parts of the systems under study. The study is concerned with a fragmented coastal succulent-sage scrub and showed that several patches of different size and age may harbor as many species as non-fragmented areas, and that 83% of the original species assemblage persisted in the fragments, in which the invasion by opportunistic exotic species may not progress beyond certain limits. The study of dune-backed and urban-backed beaches showed a significantly greater abundance of the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus) at the dune-backed beach, where a much more active back-shore feeding of adult birds and the only evidences of breeding occurred. Both studies refer to landscape features of regional concern and its results may be used in conservation management. The results on fragmented coastal succulentsage scrub may encourage alternative urban designs that keep patches of the original landscape, thus meeting existing requirements of low density urban development for most of the coastal succulent-sage scrub area. The evidence presented on the negative effects of dune destruction on the abundance, feeding and reproductive performance of a threatened bird species has a bearing on the topic of biodiversity management. It may also contribute to the conservation of the coastal dunes system.     

Post tsunami mangrove evaluation in coastal vicinity of Andaman Islands,India

The present study was carried out to determine the mangrove area water quality, mangrove diversity and density at Minnie Bay, Lalaji Bay and Aerial Bay (Andaman Islands, India). The physicochemical parameters such as salinity, nitrate, inorganic phosphate and total phosphorus varied significantly. Mangrove diversity was high at Minnie Bay while density at Aerial Bay. Rhizophora mucronata dominated at all three sites during the study period. Shannon-Wiener diversity index (H′?=?2.261) and Pielou’s evenness (J′?=?0.8348) were high at Minnie Bay. The higher species density cover (5.679 Nos./m²) was recorded at Aerial Bay. Bray-Curtis cluster analysis showed 63.35 % similarity and formed two clusters. Though uplift and subsidence of coastal land due to the Mw 9.3 Sumatra earthquake in 2004 has affected the mangrove vegetation, its rejuvenation was observed in the newly formed inter-tidal areas due to changes in coastal geomorphology. The comparative study on physicochemical parameters, mangrove coverage and conservation are discussed in detail.     

Longshore sediment transport in the surf zone based on different formulae: a case study along the central west coast of India

Understanding longshore sediment transport (LST) is a prerequisite for designing an effective coastal zone management strategy. The present study estimates the LST along the central west coast of India based on four bulk LST formulae: (1) the Coastal Engineering Research Center (CERC) formula, (2) the Walton and Bruno formula, (3) the Kamphuis formula and (4) the Komar formula. The Delft3D–wave module is used for estimating nearshore waves with measured directional wave data at a water depth of 9 m as the input parameter. Wave data for the validation of the nearshore wave transformation model is measured using the InterOcean S4DW wave gauge. The model results show that waves approach from the south 90 % of the time in a year and that they generate predominantly northerly longshore currents. Upon comparison with the measured data, the findings show that the estimates based on the Kamphuis formula agree with the field data. A high ratio (~1) of the monthly net and gross transport rates indicates that the LST is dominating in one direction in all months except February and July. The study shows that a slight change in the angle of the wave approach during the Asian summer monsoon period (JJAS) can significantly alter the direction and magnitude of the LST. Inter-annual variations in the LST based on the data for 2009 and 2011 show that the variations in the annual net and gross LST rates in different years are less than 7 %.