城市污水回用健康风险评价

随污水回用量增加，其对人体健康可能产生的危害日益受到重视。利用风险评价技术对回用水的健康风险进行评估成为保证安全回用的关键。主要论述了污水回用健康风险评价的基本概念和方法。     

Potential Ecological Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Buffel Grass in Arid Regions of Mexico

Abstract:  Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity. Such is the case of buffel grass ( Cenchrus ciliaris L.), a native species of Southern Asia and East Africa, which was introduced to the United States and Mexico for use in improved pasture. Here we present a coarse-grain approach to determine areas where buffel grass can potentially invade in Mexico. Potential species distributions, suitable for an invasion by buffel grass, were obtained through genetic algorithms. We generated the algorithms with databases of herbaria specimens; environmental digital covers of climate, soil texture, and vegetation; and the program called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the state of Sonora, Mexico, where the occurrence of buffel grass has been proven. The most threatened vegetation types for the specific case of Sonora were desert scrub, mesquite woodlands, and tropical deciduous forest. The model prediction agreed with the field observations recorded in Sonora and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a map of the potential sites of buffel grass invasion for Mexico. The areas at risk of invasion mostly occurred in desert scrub, located in the arid and semiarid regions of northern Mexico. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. Additionally this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on land-use management practices when alien species are involved.     

农药生态风险评价研究进展

介绍了美国和欧盟农药生态风险评价研究工作的最新进展,包括农药生态风险评价涉及的重要及最新概念、评价程序、不同地区多层次评价方法的比较,同时重点介绍了农药生态风险评价的关键技术--暴露评价及暴露场景的建立,最后提出了加强我国农药生态风险评价研究工作的具体建议.     

生态风险评价框架进展研究

生态风险评价是评价生态压力引起的不利生态效应的可能性的过程,可为环境风险管理提供理论及技术支持。生态风险评价框架是一套标准化的方法体系,规定了生态风险评价的总体工作内容、技术路线、关键方法步骤和各阶段产出成果,为生态风险评价的科学方法有效转化为生态环境管理策略提供途径。从20世纪90年代起,以美国为代表的一批发达国家逐步构建了生态风险评价技术框架,并颁布了一系列相关标准、导则和技术文件,直接支撑了上述国家生态环境保护相关的现行法律法规,影响了有关国家的生态环境管理与决策。而我国对于生态风险评价的具体实施还缺乏规范性的指导方法。该文以美国、英国和澳大利亚的4套与土壤环境污染关系密切的生态风险评价框架为例,介绍国际生态风险评价框架的内容,并结合我国在环境影响评价和农药安全评价领域的生态风险评价方法研究进展,对我国生态风险评价框架的研究发展方向进行分析。     

城市生态环境质量评价系统的研究与开发--以沈阳市为例

采用层次分析法作为评价方法,利用加Microsoft Visual Basic6.0开发了城市生态环境质量评价信息系统。系统分6个模块,评价指标体系模块、评价标准体系模块、评价权重体系模块、现状值模块、结果值模块和数据综合信息模块。具有数据编辑、打分评价、数据报表和专家支持4种主要功能。应用该系统对沈阳“九五”末期城市生态环境质量进行评价,结果显示沈阳市城市生态环境质量一般。     

农田土壤重金属污染评价方法研究--以长江三角洲典型县级市常熟市为例

在工业化、现代化过程中,经济发达地区土壤污染是一个十分值得重视的问题,如何合理、恰当地对这些地区的土壤环境质量进行评价也是众所关注和值得探讨的。为此,以长江三角洲典型县级市常熟市为研究对象,在探讨土壤环境背景值的含义、确定方法、评价标准的基础上,通过田间采样和室内分析,对常熟市土壤重金属含量进行调查,并以当地土壤环境背景值上限值和GB 15618—1995土壤环境质量标准二级标准值为评价标准,分别对该市土壤重金属中7种重金属元素(Cd、Hg、As、Pb、Cr、Cu和Zn)污染状况进行评价。结果表明,以当地土壤环境背景值上限值为标准进行评价,7种重金属均有超过背景值现象,其中以Hg、Pb、Cr、Cu和Zn问题较多,超标率达13.6%~20.4%。而以GB 15618—1995土壤环境质量标准二级标准值进行评价,则Cd、Pb、Cu和Zn均有超标,Hg有30.6%的土壤样品超标,As、Cr不超标。因此认为采用双重标准进行土壤环境污染状况的评价,可以较全面地了解当地土壤污染状况。     

Importance of Accounting for Detection Heterogeneity When Estimating Abundance: the Case of French Wolves

Abstract: Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free‐ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture–recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture–recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture–recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two‐class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture–recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored.     

县域土地生态安全评价——以四川省丹棱县为例

建立基于自然-经济-社会子系统的县域土地生态安全综合评价体系,评价2001-2010年四川省丹棱县的土地生态安全状况,并分析土地生态系统协调度的动态变化,探讨丹棱县在眉山市所处的土地生态安全水平.结果表明,2001-2010年丹棱县土地生态安全状况总体呈好转趋势,但至2010年仍处于敏感级和预警状态,综合生态安全值由0.630 6增长至0.697 2,其中土地经济生态安全值由0.236 6增加至0.327 9,但自然和社会生态安全值分别由0.262 3和0.131 7下降至0.253 9和0.115 3.2001-2010年土地生态系统协调度由0.670 9下降至0.535 6,从2007年起系统处于不协调状态.从2008年起丹棱县土地生态安全水平高于眉山市平均水平.     

Addressing Data Deficiency in Classifying Extinction Risk: a Case Study of a Radiation of Bignoniaceae from Madagascar

Abstract:  Of the roughly 12,000 known plant species in Madagascar, only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar. Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area had been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer. We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category. If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.     

上海市居民暴露于多环芳烃的健康风险评价

为研究上海市多环芳烃类有机污染物对人体产生的潜在健康危害风险,结合上海市人群状况,采用多介质-多途径暴露模型,评价上海市居民暴露于多环芳烃的暴露量及由此导致的健康风险,分析不同环境介质、暴露介质及暴露途径的风险贡献率,并结合蒙特卡罗方法分析研究过程中的不确定性。在实际评价时,根据上海市的实际情况,我们选用了部分美国环保局推荐参数,剩余的评价参数根据国内的相关文献,我们进行了修正,以使暴露模型更较好的接近上海市真实暴露场景,提高模拟的准确度和精密度。结果表明：儿童、青少年和成人对16种PAH化合物（PAH16）的日均暴露量分别为1.27×10-3、8.90×10-4、7.49×10-4 mg·kg-1·d-1,主要暴露途径是膳食暴露,此外呼吸暴露也占有一定的比重,皮肤暴露作用很小。膳食暴露中对总暴露贡献最大的食品是粮食、肉类、鱼类。高环化合物主要来自肉类和鱼类。2环、3环、4环、5环和6环化合物对总暴露谱的贡献依次减少。健康风险评价结果表明,上海市儿童、青少年和成人由于 PAHs 暴露引起的平均致癌风险为7.20×10-6、6.13×10-6、4.44×10-6 a-1,上海市多环芳烃类污染物居民人体健康风险度高于可接受健康风险度标准。上海市女性对多环芳烃的暴露量高于男性,女性健康风险平均值亦高于EPA标准值。上海市多环芳烃人群暴露与天津、北京和兰州相比存在一定的差异。各项参数中,粮食、蔬菜摄食量和相应的多环芳烃（PAHs）残留浓度是影响暴露的重要因素。通过蒙特卡罗模拟得到各年龄段人群对多环芳烃（PAHs）的日均暴露量的分布特征,各输出变量均服从对数正态分布。     

外来物种风险评估指标体系和评估方法

外来物种风险评估是防止外来物种入侵的最有效手段之一。在识别外来物种风险基础上,遵循重要性、系统性、实用性和灵活性原则,建立了由目标层、准则层、指标层和指标层参数构成的外来物种风险评估指标体系。提出了指标量化、权重设置、综合模型建立和风险等级划分的方法。     

国内外农药生态风险评价暴露模拟外壳述评

在阐明农药生态风险评价暴露模拟外壳的概念和功能的基础上,介绍了美国PE〔PRZM（pesticide root zonemodel）-EXAMS（exposure analysis modeling system）〕系列外壳和EXPRESS（EXAMS-PRZM exposure simulation shell）系列外壳、欧盟SWASH（surface water scenarios help）外壳及中国PRAESS（pesticide risk assessment exposure simula-tion shell）外壳这几种已开发的农药生态风险评价暴露模拟外壳的开发目的、结构组成、输入参数、运行方式和输出结果等方面的内容,并比较分析了各暴露模拟外壳在包含模型、包含场景、模拟水体类型和主要输出结果方面的异同点,期望为我国农药生态风险评价,尤其是暴露评价研究提供有益借鉴。     

Participatory Approach for Rapid Assessment of Plant Diversity through a Folk Classification System in a Tropical Rainforest: Case Study in Xishuangbanna, China

Abstract:  Rural indigenous people are often very knowledgeable about plant and animal species, including their identification and ecology. The use of indigenous knowledge has increasingly attracted attention in scientific circles. The Dai people, a dominant nationality in southwestern Yunnan, China, have developed their own traditional plant classification system. In a case study in Xishuangbanna, we compared the differences in number of plant species identified between scientific and Dai folk classification. The Dai people identified more than 80% of the plant species, and the correspondence between folk and scientific plant species was 87.7%. Our results indicate that folk plant classification could be used in rapid assessment of plant species in certain regions. The use of folk systems of plant classification for rapid biodiversity assessment will contribute to conservation of both indigenous knowledge and regional biodiversity.     

水污染控制工程综合效益评估指标体系研究——以滆湖地区为例

提出了水污染控制工程综合效益评价指标体系建立的原则和方法,并根据水污染控制工程的目标,建立了水污染控制工程综合效益评价指标体系.在此基础上,根据滆湖地区农村特点、水环境状况、经济技术基础等条件确定了滆湖地区水污染控制工程综合效益评价指标的等级标准和权重.     

Multiplicity-adjusted Inferences in Risk Assessment: Benchmark Analysis with Continuous Response Data

We develop and study multiplicity adjustments for low-dose inferences in environmental risk assessment. Application is intended for risk analysis studies where human, animal, or ecological data are used to set safe levels of a hazardous environmental agent. A modern method for making inferences in this setting is known as benchmark analysis, where attention centers on the dose at which a fixed benchmark level of risk is achieved. Both upper confidence limits on the risk and lower confidence limits on the “benchmark dose” are of interest. In practice, a number of possible benchmark risks may be under study; if so, corrections must be applied to adjust the limits for multiplicity. In this note, we discuss approaches for doing so with continuous, nonquantal response data.     

基于土地利用的喀斯特地区生态系统服务功能价值评估——以贵州省为例

为探讨喀斯特地区生态系统服务功能价值特征,对贵州省生态系统服务功能价值进行评估,结果表明生态系统服务功能价值在2005、2010、2020年分别为1 610.43亿、2 357.86亿、4 328.89亿元.贵州省各类生态系统服务功能单价顺序为湿地>水体>森林>草地>农田>荒漠,其中湿地生态系统是荒漠生态系统服务功能价值的149.31倍.2005～2020年贵州省生态服务功能价值结构和土地利用结构以森林生态系统占绝对优势,各类型生态系统服务功能价值顺序为森林>农田>草地>水体>荒漠>湿地,各类型生态系统面积大小顺序为森林>农田>荒漠>草地>水体>湿地.2005、2010、2020年贵州省单位面积生态系统服务功能价值分别为9 142、13 385、24 573元/hm2.根据至2020年的土地利用规划,贵州省生态系统服务功能将持续增加.     

生境评价程序在规划环境影响评价中的应用——以大东港区规划为例

对美国广泛应用的生境评价程序(HEP)在程序和方法上进行了改进和简化,在分析现有各生境单元指示物种密度的基础上,根据项目拟占用生境情况,预测拟议项目对指示物种的影响.以丹东港大东港区规划为例,应用改进的HEP,定量分析了大东港区规划对指示物种(涉禽和水鸟)觅食生境的影响,并制定了生境弥补计划和生态减缓措施.     

Modeling Species' Distributions to Improve Conservation in Semiurban Landscapes: Koala Case Study

Abstract:  Models of species' distributions are commonly used to inform landscape and conservation planning. In urban and semiurban landscapes, the distributions of species are determined by a combination of natural habitat and anthropogenic impacts. Understanding the spatial influence of these two processes is crucial for making spatially explicit decisions about conservation actions. We present a logistic regression model for the distribution of koalas (  Phascolarctos cinereus ) in a semiurban landscape in eastern Australia that explicitly separates the effect of natural habitat quality and anthropogenic impacts on koala distributions. We achieved this by comparing the predicted distributions from the model with what the predicted distributions would have been if anthropogenic variables were at their mean values. Similar approaches have relied on making predictions assuming anthropogenic variables are zero, which will be unreliable if the training data set does not include anthropogenic variables close to zero. Our approach is novel because it can be applied to landscapes where anthropogenic variables are never close to zero. Our model showed that, averaged across the study area, natural habitat was the main determinant of koala presence. At a local scale, however, anthropogenic impacts could be more important, with consequent implications for conservation planning. We demonstrated that this modeling approach, combined with the visual presentation of predictions as a map, provides important information for making decisions on how different conservation actions should be spatially allocated. This method is particularly useful for areas where wildlife and human populations exist in close proximity.     

垃圾堆肥场堆肥废气环境影响评价分析

垃圾堆肥场的建设将改变目前垃圾任意堆放的局面 ,堆肥产品可用于林业使垃圾得到无害化处理 ,并变废为宝。尽管如此在垃圾堆肥过程中还将释放出有害气体和垃圾渗透液等影响环境质量。针对堆肥所产生的大气污染物进行源强确定、扩散计算 ,分析其影响范围并推算卫生防护距离。