基于潜在分类模型的湿地生态系统服务公众生态偏好异质性研究

在生态系统服务价值评估研究中,把握公众的生态偏好是当前研究的重要内容。论文以三江平原湿地为研究对象,应用选择实验法获取公众的生态偏好和支付意愿,构建潜在分类模型,探究公众对湿地各项生态系统服务的偏好异质性。研究结果显示：公众对各项湿地生态系统服务存在显著的偏好异质性,资源偏好型的受访者所占比例最大（68.78%）,景观偏好型的受访者对自然景观的支付意愿显著较高,而价格敏感型受访者的支付意愿明显低于其他两类。分析各潜在类别可知,公众的社会经济特征及环境意识对其偏好具有显著影响。教育水平越高的受访者越偏好于资源保护,高收入和到景区旅游次数多的受访者更偏好于景观保护,而价格敏感型受访者的环境意识相对较低。研究不仅为湿地生态系统服务偏好异质性的研究提供新途径,也为相关环境政策的制定提供参考。     

Valuing health effects from the industrial air pollution in rural Tianjin, China

IntroductionAirpollutioninTianjinisveryserious ,andismainlycausedbycoalconsumption .Theaverageconcentrationoftotalsuspendedparticulates (TSP)hasreached 0 3 5mg m3from 1990to 1998,exceedingChina’slevelⅡEnvironmentalCriterion ,whichis 0 2 0mg m3 Townshi…     

Energy and environmental attitudes in the green state of Denmark: Implications for energy democracy,low carbon transitions,and energy literacy

This article investigates how a mix of energy-users from Denmark perceives energy and environmental issues such as the affordability of electricity and gasoline, the seriousness of climate change, and preferences for different energy systems. Its primary source of data is a pilot survey and energy literacy test distributed in English and Danish to 328 respondents spread across the country. The survey results are used to test four propositions about energy prices, being “green,” public knowledge and competence about energy issues, and self-sufficiency and sustainable technology. The data supports the propositions that Danes identify with “being green” and prefer national and local policies that endorse sustainable technology and being self-sufficient. However, the data also challenges the propositions that Danes would prioritize low energy prices and affordability as key energy concerns and that they are knowledgeable about energy and environmental issues. In this way, a problematic gap may exist between what many academic articles (and previous surveys) report Danish attitudes to be and what this study suggests they are. Given Denmark's ambitious low-carbon goals, these findings have clear relevance to other communities and countries seeking to decarbonize their own energy sectors.     

2013-2015年十堰市环境空气质量变化趋势分析研究

利用十堰市空气自动监测站的监测数据,采用综合指数、空气质量指数(AQI)和Spearman秩相关系数法等评价方法,研究十堰市2013年-2015年环境空气质量变化情况及其影响因素,为城市的大气污染防治提供治理思路.结果表明:2013年-2015年十堰市城区空气质量逐年好转,除PM10和PM2.5外,其他因子均达标,污染物贡献比例中,PM10和PM2.5污染负荷占比超过50%,为主要污染物;十堰市城区空气质量整体呈夏季较好,冬季较差的趋势;全市中开发区铁二处空气质量较好,张湾区刘家沟空气质量较差;结合自然因素和人为因素,综合分析空气质量的变化情况,通过调整能源结构、减少污染源排放和使用清洁能源等多项措施,并注意季节特征和加强预警预报工作,进而改善空气质量.     

Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework

Scenario-based approaches in environmental and policy assessment studies are increasingly applied within integrated assessment and modelling frameworks. The SEAMLESS project develops such an integrated framework (SEAMLESS-IF) aiming to assess, ex-ante, impacts of alternative agro-environmental policies on the sustainability of agricultural systems. A particular challenge in this context is the consistent translation of a wide range of policy questions into scenarios that a modelling framework can assess. The present work defines a methodology for scenario-development in integrated policy assessment with specific emphasis on SEAMLESS-IF. After a general overview on scenario concepts for integrated policy assessment the adopted scenario concept and its development procedure is presented. They allow building integrated scenarios capturing the range of drivers of the assessed agricultural system in a consistent way across temporal and spatial scales. Then focus is on the particular procedures to translate the policy assessment questions into scenario parameters and to implement these parameters into SEAMLESS-IF. Two examples targeted at European and regional level combining integrated assessments of policy changes and technological innovations are considered to illustrate the SEAMLESS scenario concept. We conclude that the proposed methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios effectively supports integrated assessment in SEAMLESS-IF or even in other modelling frameworks.     

A review on political factors influencing public support for urban environmental policy

Environmental quality is important to urban residents’ physical, social and psychological well-being. Governments have been formulating and implementing policies to mitigate environmental deterioration in cities. To effectively implement policies and achieve policy goals, gaining sufficient public support is an essential prerequisite; the policies would be in ruins and the government may also suffer from setbacks in other policy areas in the absence of public support. Therefore, to understand what contributes to public support is a crucial task for policymakers. Though current literature on socio-demographic and attitudinal/psychological factors provides fruitful accounts for policy support, a comprehensive examination of political determinants has yet to be established. In response to this, this review paper explores political factors that influence level of policy support based on existing literature. An integrated framework is proposed to explain policy support for urban environmental policy. This paper also discusses the possible directions of future research.     

How robust is public support for unilateral climate policy?

Most governments emphasize the need for reciprocal (“give and take”) international commitments in global climate policy. Nonetheless, existing public opinion polls indicate strong support by individual citizens for unilateral climate policies as well. This raises the question of whether governments could, without risking electoral punishment, afford to pursue more ambitious unilateral climate policies, or whether surveys may have overestimated support for unilateralism due to measurement problems. Based on conjoint and framing experiments embedded in representative surveys in the world's two largest democracies, India and the United States, we engage in a critical re-assessment of earlier survey results. We find robust public support for unilateral climate policy in both countries. Such support declines with increasing costs and increases with growing co-benefits and problem solving effectiveness. We also find, however, that policy conditionality and possible institutional design mechanisms against free-riding by other states (which make the policy “less unilateral” by providing for reciprocation) play no significant role when citizens form their preferences with respect to climate policy. Neither is public support affected by whether policies focus on adaptation (which limits benefits to the investing country) or mitigation (which benefits all countries globally). Overall, these findings suggest that, in view of very slow progress in global climate policy, governments of rich and poor countries could politically afford to push ahead with more ambitious unilateral climate policies.     

Personal decisions and their impacts on energy use and the environment

With increasing frequency, individuals deliberately choose specific actions that they hope will lessen environmental impact. Given the complexity of modern society, it is not always easy to know how to minimize environmental harm without undue sacrifice. Government policies can have a role in helping individuals make decisions and encouraging them to act in certain ways. Recycling of solid waste materials is a personal choice made by many people in the USA guided by the belief that recycling is not only good for the environment but that it constitutes a major contribution to improving environmental quality. By using energy usage as a proxy for overall environmental impact, we show that the impact reduction achieved through recycling varies for different materials. It is small but significant for some materials, such as aluminum, and minimal for other materials, such as plastic, especially when compared to other choices that individuals have direct control over, such as the type of vehicle they drive or the amount they drive. While the recycling of certain materials, such as aluminum, does result in measurable energy savings, the net benefit of recycling is orders of magnitude smaller than the gains that can be achieved from switching to more fuel-efficient vehicles. Despite this, perception and policy in the USA have focused on recycling rather than personal vehicle choice and increased reliance on public transportation.     

Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

Urbanization and environmental policy effects on the future availability of grazing resources on the Mongolian Plateau: Modeling socio-environmental system dynamics

The rangelands of the Mongolian Plateau are dynamic socio-environmental systems that are influenced by a complex network of drivers, including climate, social institutions, market forces, and national-scale policies affecting land access and management. The sustainability and resilience of rangelands in this region depend on the ability of residents and policy makers to quickly respond by adapting livelihoods and land uses to changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions, but the responses of the system to these changes are often non-linear and difficult to predict. We developed a system dynamics model to understand how the human, natural, and land-use processes in the Mongolian rangeland ecosystem interact to produce dynamic outcomes in both grassland productivity and livestock populations. We developed two separate models based on a common integrative framework for two case study areas: Suhkbaatar Aimag in Mongolia and Xilingol League in Inner Mongolia. We used future scenarios for each region generated with stakeholder input to forecast trends in grassland area, livestock numbers, and biomass under alternative climate, socioeconomic, and land-use futures. By incorporating stakeholder-developed scenarios, we were able to explore future scenarios tailored to the particular questions and concerns relevant to the individual study areas. We find that while there are many similarities in the factors driving system dynamics in the two countries, the trajectories of key grassland resources are quite different, both between the two study regions and across the individual scenarios. Environmental policies play a key role in Xilingol, while economic development is a key driver in Sukhbaatar. Urbanization dynamics will be a major influence on the availability of grassland resources in the future.     

Salmon policy: science,society, restoration,and reality

Salmon policy in the Pacific Northwest illustrates a class of contentious, socially wrenching issues that are becoming increasingly common in the western United States as demands increase for limited ecological resources. Many Pacific salmon “stocks” (a term used in fisheries management for a group of interbreeding individuals that is roughly equivalent to “population”) have declined and some have been extirpated. The salmon “problem” is one of the most vexing public policy challenges in natural resource management. Even with complete scientific knowledge — and scientific knowledge is far from complete or certain — it would be a challenging policy problem. The salmon decline issue is often defined simplistically as a watershed management problem, in part because changes in watersheds are highly visible and often occur on public or corporate lands where individuals and organizations often have direct input to decision making. Yet, changes in climate and ocean conditions, for example, occur frequently and such changes have a major influence on salmon abundance. The scientific challenges are great, but the more difficult — and critical — aspect of the debate concerns policies and decisions affecting everyone, including those involved in rural enterprises (especially farming and logging); manufacturing and construction; electricity generation (including hydro, fossil fuel, and nuclear); national defense; urban development; transportation (including road, rail, air, and water). The debate also involves competing personal rights and freedoms; the prerogatives and roles of local, state, and federal government and Indian tribes; policies on human population level, reproduction, emigration, and immigration; and the future of fishing (commercial, recreational, and Indian). The salmon policy conundrum is characterized by: (1) nearly everyone claims to support maintaining wild salmon runs; (2) many competing societal priorities exist, many of which are partially or wholly mutually exclusive; (3) the region’s rapidly growing human population creates increasing pressures on all natural resources (including salmon and their habitats); (4) policy stances in the salmon debate are solidly entrenched; (5) society expects salmon experts to help solve the salmon problem; (6) each of the many sides of the political debate over the future of salmon use salmon experts and scientific “facts” to bolster its argument; (7) it has proved to be nearly impossible for salmon scientists to avoid being categorized as supporting a particular policy position; and (8) many advocates of policy positions couch their positions in scientific terms rather than value-based preferences. Although far from indisputable, I conclude that over the next century and allowing for considerable year-to-year and decade-to-decade variation, many, perhaps most, stocks of wild salmon in the Pacific Northwest likely will remain at their current low levels or continue to decline in spite of costly protection and restoration efforts.     

环境影响评价公众参与工作中公众意见的统计分析方法

环境影响评价是我国环境管理体系的重要组成部分,是一种对规划和建设项目实施后可能造成的环境影响进行分析、预测和评估,提出预防或者减轻不良环境影响的对策和措施,进行跟踪监测的方法与制度。环境影响评价有了公众参与的内容,可以促使社会各方面人士关心环境问题,在环境评价工作中起到了弥补技术研究不足的重要作用,可使环评单位在环评中的预测和分析更加完善,提出的建议更趋合理。合理的环境影响评价公众参与工作中公众意见的统计分析方法是参与对象的代表性、调查统计方法的有效性、调查统计内容的科学性、统计时间的有效性等的全面综合的反应。     

危机事件影响下环境政策变迁的过程、模式及机制研究

全球化和高速发展的城市化使得人类与生态之间的矛盾愈加严重,环境危机事件发生的频率不断上升,如何应对危机成为当今社会公共管理的主要议题。本文从环境危机事件的内涵与制度学诱因出发,通过梳理国内外相关理论和实证研究,对危机影响下环境政策变迁的过程、模式以及机制进行评述。研究表明,制度供求不匹配所带来的制度非均衡是导致环境危机出现的根本原因之一;环境危机事件有利于打破原有环境政策渐进性过程的路径依赖性,通过改变政府、公众、企业及其他利益相关体的机会格局与资源条件从而为主要政策变迁提供可能性。因此,危机事件影响下的环境政策变迁过程是自上而下和自下而上两种政策途径综合作用的结果。中国正处于“非稳定状态”的环境危机多发阶段,需要借鉴国外理论模型进行本土化研究。加强多学科之间的融合和有关理论的实际应用,为具有不同经济制度发展水平的地区制定区域可持续发展政策提供决策支持。     

Global Warming: Risk Perception and Risk-Mitigating Behavior in Japan

Global warming is a major concern for the Japanese public. However, because the influence of global environmental risks, particularly global warming, is long-term and widespread, it seems difficult for the public to recognize it as a familiar and important problem that necessitates firm action. This study attempts to determine the causal structure promoting risk-mitigating behavior with regard to global warming, using Covariance Structure Analysis (CSA) with data from a survey of a subset of the Japanese population. We model the causal structure promoting risk-mitigating behavior population. There are four main stages in the process of decision-making for and values, risk perception, mitigating behavior intention, and personal environmental policies has three stages: concerns and values, risk perceptions, ectively accelerate the public’s participation in policy decisions, by translating their risk-mitigating into practical actions. Increased knowledge through improved access should improve the interaction between the public and environmental policy-makers with regard to global warming, using CSA with data from a survey of a subset of the Japanese personal actions: concerns actions. Support for andmitigating behavior intentions. Our results suggest that improved access to information concerning the risks associated with global warming in particular, and environmental issues in general, will be sufficient to effintentions for to information in Japan.     

Review of drivers and barriers for nuclear power in the UK

There has been resurgence in interest in new nuclear power stations over the last couple of years. The UK Government has taken steps to encourage the private sector to build new stations in the UK, a change in its previous neutral stance toward nuclear power. This paper examines the change in government policy asking what drivers have led to this decision and what barriers were preventing new nuclear power in the past and what barriers are still faced by both government and industry. Three main drivers are discussed: security of energy supply; diminishing energy generation capacity; and climate change. The paper also examines other key factors that play a part in facilitating a shift in government policy, namely economics, public perception and waste management policy. Barriers are identified through examination of public perception, and policy. The changes to the planning system are also discussed. The paper concludes by comparing drivers and barriers for other technologies and contrasting the UK experience with that of other countries.     

Sustainability in the New Zealand wine industry: drivers,stakeholders and practices

This research aims to investigate various sustainability issues in the New Zealand wine industry. Namely, the study examines (1) what drives the industry to engage in sustainability practices, (2) the role of stakeholders in the company's decision-making, and (3) environmental practices related to water utilization, chemicals and waste management. A qualitative research approach supplemented by quantitative measures was adopted to answer the research questions. Twenty-four wineries were studied. The research found that the most important drivers for sustainable practices are personal values, preferences and satisfaction with the profession (i.e., enjoyment of the work itself), followed by product quality and customers' demand. Size of firm also appears to be an important factor. New Zealand wine companies are also driven by the market, but companies do not receive a price premium for grapes grown sustainably or organically grown. The study proposes a typology matrix that differentiates wineries' involvement in sustainability based on the extent of sustainability practices and sustainability drivers.     

洪泽湖生物多样性非使用价值评估

运用条件价值法(CVM)评估洪泽湖生物多样性3种非使用价值(选择价值、遗产价值、存在价值).选取洪泽湖周边3个县市(洪泽、盱眙、泗洪)共发放问卷520份,回收有效问卷484份.统计结果显示,公众评估的生物多样性非使用价值(214万元/a)是洪泽湖周边3个县市2007年GDP总和的1/23.同时,公众的支付意愿随着受访者年龄的增加而减少,随着收入的增加而增加.另外,相比较那些怀疑政府环境政策执行效果并对环境保护漠不关心的人,其他公众的支付倾向更加明显.     

Enhancing our understanding of the role of environmental policy in environmental innovation: adoption explained by the accumulation of policy instruments and agent-based factors

The empirical literature reports conflicting findings on the relation between environmental policy and environmental innovation: environmental policy both encourages and impedes environmental innovation, resulting in competing theoretical explanations. To find a way out of this counterproductive debate requires new and complementary insights into the effects of different policy instruments. This research therefore advances an approach in which a set of specific policy instruments as well as firms’ behavior regarding CHP (cogeneration of heat and power) adoption are considered as two distinct factors explaining environmental innovation in the Dutch paper and board industry. Using a longitudinal research design, the focus was not on any single policy instrument but on the accumulation of policy instruments. In addition, we studied intra-organizational factors influencing the adoption decision.Overall, we can conclude that paper and board factories perceive governmental environmental policies to be relevant, but that this constitutes just one of the factors influencing adoption processes, next to intra-organizational factors. The relative importance of such policies varies over time and per adoption process. The role of top-down regulation appears to be limited, whereas interactive regulation turned out to be important for several factories in the latest period of adoption. Positive economic instruments were important in almost all adoption processes, but were not and will never be the most important reason for adoption. The most important reason for CHP adoption appears to be high energy prices in combination with cost price reduction or the threat of additional regulation. For future policies, we recommend the implementation of a specific mixture of policy instruments, attuned to the specific industry and reinforcing each other. Moreover, goals should be consistent over time to avoid risk-averse behavior.     

Environmental Impact Assessment in higher education and training in Portugal

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) education has been a reality for years in many graduate and undergraduate programs worldwide. As EIA has grown as a widely accepted environmental policy tool, several professions have tried to incorporate these skills into their academic training. The main aim of this research was to assess the Portuguese profile of EIA education, measuring the degree of EIA integration in graduate and undergraduate programs. This paper intends to contribute to an understanding of the key factors related to EIA education. A national survey was conducted to obtain data on EIA education programs. More recently, many other programs, both graduate and undergraduate, have established EIA courses. New knowledge, practices, legislation and public policies are fundamental drivers of the application of EIA, which will probably continue to expand to more undergraduate and graduate programs. The association of EIA with other environmental management tools, such as environmental management systems or environmental performance evaluation, and sustainable development initiatives will be a priority challenge for all who are engaged in this domain.     

推进中国环境税收政策的对策研究

环境税收政策对于解决中国的环境问题具有至关重要的作用,但目前环境政策的实施还面临着一系列的困难,文章从基础支持、组织机构职能等几个方面提出了确保环境税收政策有效实施的对策。