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1.
Groundwater is the essential resource for various uses and have a great economic importance especially in the areas like Mekong Delta, which is the home for some 18 million people and produces a half of Vietnam’s rice and contributes substantial part of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Sustainable use of the groundwater resource is threatened by its uncontrolled abstraction and climate change. This study assesses groundwater resources in Mekong Delta aquifer system in the context of climate change. A set of models are used for the purpose. Groundwater recharge and its spatial variation are estimated using WETSPASS model, groundwater level and storage are estimated using MODFLOW and future climatic conditions in the area are developed by downscaling the data of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) retrieved from CMIP5 data portal. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are considered for projecting future conditions of groundwater resources. Results reveal that the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.5 °C and 4.9 °C by the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Future rainfall is projected to increase in wet season and decrease in dry season. Groundwater recharge is projected to decline in short-, medium-, and long-terms. As a result, groundwater levels and storage are also projected to decline in future. These findings may help decision-makers and stakeholders for devising sustainable groundwater management strategies in Mekong Delta.  相似文献   

2.
As part of the Paris climate agreement, countries have submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes greenhouse gas reduction proposals beyond 2020. In this paper, we apply the IMAGE integrated assessment model to estimate the annual abatement costs of achieving the NDC reduction targets, and the additional costs if countries would take targets in line with keeping global warming well below 2 °C and “pursue efforts” towards 1.5 °C. We have found that abatement costs are very sensitive to socio-economic assumptions: under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 (SSP3) assumptions of slow economic growth, rapidly growing population, and high inequality, global abatement costs of achieving the unconditional NDCs are estimated at USD135 billion by 2030, which is more than twice the level as under the more sustainable socio-economic assumptions of SSP1. Furthermore, we project that the additional costs of full implementation of the conditional NDCs are substantial, ranging from 40 to 55 billion USD, depending on socio-economic assumptions. Of the ten major emitting economies, Brazil, Canada and the USA are projected to have the highest cots as share of GDP to implement the conditional NDCs, while the costs for Japan, China, Russia, and India are relatively low. Allowing for emission trading could decrease global costs substantially, by more than half for the unconditional NDCs and almost by half for the conditional NDCs. Finally, the required effort in terms of abatement costs of achieving 2030 emission levels consistent with 2 °C pathways would be at least three times higher than the costs of achieving the conditional NDCs – even though reductions need to be twice as much. For 1.5 °C, the costs would be 5–6 times as high.  相似文献   

3.
Crop simulation models are frequently used to estimate the impact of climate change on crop production. However, few studies have evaluated the model performance in ways that most researchers practiced in climate impact studies. In this article, we examined the reliability of the EPIC model in simulating grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) yields in the U.S. Great Plains under different climate scenarios, namely in years with normal or extreme temperature and precipitation. We also investigated model uncertainties introduced by input data that are not site-specific but commonly used or available for climate change studies. Historical field trial data of sorghum at the Mead Experimental Center, NE, were used for model evaluations. The results showed that overall model reliability was about 56%. The mean absolute relative error (absRE) was about 29%. The degree of accuracy and reliability varied with climate-classes and nitrogen (N)-treatments. The largest bias occurred in drought years (RE = ?25%) and the most unreliable results were found in N-0 treatment (reliability = 32%). There was more than 69% probability that input-data-induced uncertainties were limited to less than 20% of absRE. Our results support the application of the EPIC model to climate change impact studies in the U.S. Great Plains. However, efforts are needed to improve the accuracy in simulating crop responses to extreme water- and nitrogen-stressed conditions.  相似文献   

4.
This paper combines life-cycle analyses and economic analyses for Miscanthus and willow heat and electricity fuel-chains in Ireland. Displaced agricultural land-uses and conventional fuels were considered in fuel-chain permutations. Avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ranged from 7.7 to 35.2 t CO2 eq. ha−1 a−1. Most fuel-chain permutations exhibited positive discounted financial returns, despite losses for particular entities at a farm-gate processed-biomass price of €100 t−1 dry-matter. Attributing a value of €10 t−1 CO2 eq. to avoided GHG emissions, but subtracting financial returns associated with displaced fuel supplies, resulted in discounted annual national economic benefits (DANEBs) ranging from −457 to 1887€ ha−1 a−1. Extrapolating a plausible combination of fuel-chains up to a national indicative scenario resulted in GHG emission avoidance of 3.56 Mt CO2 eq. a−1 (5.2% of national emissions), a DANEB of 167 M€, and required 4.6% of national agricultural land area. As cost-effective national GHG avoidance options, Miscanthus and willow fuel-chains are robust to variation in yields and CO2 price, and appear to represent an efficient land-use option (e.g. compared with liquid biofuel production). Policies promoting utilisation of these energy-crops could avoid unnecessary, and environmentally questionable, future purchase of carbon credits, as currently required for national Kyoto compliance.  相似文献   

5.
Developing countries situated mostly in latitudes that are projected for the highest climate change impact in the twenty-first century will also have a predictable increase in demand on energy sources. India presents us with a unique opportunity to study this phenomenon in a large developing country. This study finds that climate adaptation policies of India should consider the significance of air conditioners (A/Cs) in mitigation of human vulnerability due to unpredictable weather events such as heat waves. However, the energy demand due to air conditioning usage alone will be in the range of an extra ~750,000 GWh to ~1,350,000 GWh with a 3.7 °C increase in surface temperatures under different population scenarios and increasing incomes by the year 2100. We project that residential A/C usage by 2100 will result in CO2 emissions of 592 Tg to 1064 Tg. This is significant given that India's total contribution to global CO2 emissions in 2009 was measured at 1670 Tg and country's residential and commercial electricity consumption in 2007 was estimated at 145,000 GWh.  相似文献   

6.
Forests are believed to be a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. There are 158.94 million hectares (Mha) of forests in China, accounting for 16.5% of its land area. These extensive forests may play a vital role in the global carbon (C) cycle as well as making a large contribution to the country’s economic and environmental well-being. Currently there is a trend towards increased development in the forests. Hence, accounting for the role and potential of the forests in the global carbon budget is very important.In this paper, we attempt to estimate the carbon emissions and sequestration by Chinese forests in 1990 and make projections for the following 60 years based on three scenarios, i.e. “baseline”, “trend” and “planning”. A computer model F-CARBON 1.0, which takes into account the different biomass density and growth rates for the forests in different age classes, the life time for biomass oxidation and decomposition, and the change in soil carbon between harvesting and reforestation, was developed by the authors and used to make the calculations and projections. Climate change is not modelled in this exercise.We calculate that forests in China annually accumulate 118.1 Mt C in growth of trees and 18.4 Mt in forest soils, and release 38.9 Mt, resulting in a net sequestration of 97.6 Mt C, corresponding to 16.8% of the national CO2 emissions in 1990. From 1990 to 2050, soil carbon accumulation was projected to increase slightly while carbon emissions increases by 73, 77 and 84%, and net carbon sequestration increases by −21, 52 and 90% for baseline, trend and planning scenarios, respectively. Carbon sequestration by China’s forests under the planning scenario in 2000, 2010, 2030 and 2050 is approximately 20, 48, 111 and 142% higher than projected by the baseline scenario, and 8, 18, 34 and 26% higher than by the trend scenario, respectively. Over 9 Gt C is projected to accumulate in China’s forests from 1990 to 2050 under the planning scenario, and this is 73 and 23% larger than projected for the baseline and trend scenarios, respectively. During the period 2008–2012, Chinese forests are likely to have a net uptake of 667, 565 and 452 Mt C, respectively, for the planning, trend and baseline scenarios. We conclude that China’s forests have a large potential for carbon sequestration through forest development. Sensitivity analysis showed that the biggest uncertainty in the projection by the F-CARBON model came from the release coefficient of soil carbon between periods after harvesting and before reforestation.  相似文献   

7.
The projected increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] is expected to increase yield of agricultural C3 crops, but little is known about effects of [CO2] on lodging that can reduce yield. This study examined the interaction between [CO2] and nitrogen (N) fertilization on the lodging of rice (Oryza sativa L.) using free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) systems installed in paddy fields at Shizukuishi, Iwate, Japan (39°38′N, 140°57′E). Rice plants were grown under two levels of [CO2] (ambient = 365 μmol mol−1; elevated [CO2] = 548 μmol mol−1) and three N fertilization regimes: a single initial basal application of controlled-release urea (8 g N m−2, CRN), split fertilization with a standard amount of ammonium sulfate (9 g N m−2, MN), and ample N (15 g N m−2, HN). Lodging score (six ranks at 18° intervals, with larger scores indicating greater bending), yield, and yield components were measured at maturity. The lodging score was significantly higher under HN than under CRN and MN, but lodging was alleviated by elevated [CO2] under HN. This alleviation was associated with the shortened and thickened lower internodes, but was not associated with a change in the plant's mass moment around the culm base. A positively significant correlation between lodging score and ripening percentage indicated that ripening percentage decreased by 4.5% per one-unit increase in lodging score. These findings will be useful to develop functional algorithm that can be incorporated into mechanistic crop models to predict rice production more accurately in a changing climate and with different cultural practices.  相似文献   

8.
For addressing climate change, public support for changes in policy is needed, as well changes in individual lifestyles. Both of these appear to be intimately related with people’s worldviews. Understanding these worldviews is therefore essential. In order to research and ‘map’ them, we translated the theoretical ‘Integrative Worldview Framework’ (IWF) into an empirical, quantitative approach. We constructed a worldview-scale aiming to distinguish between four major worldviews – labeled traditional, modern, postmodern, and integrative – and explored their interface with opinions and behaviors with respect to climate change. The survey was conducted with representative samples of citizens in the Netherlands and the USA (n = 527 and n = 556). The hypothesized worldviews were found in the data with a reasonable degree of reliability, especially in the Dutch sample. We also found consistent relationships between these worldview-clusters and a range of opinions, political priorities, and behaviors. In both countries postmoderns and integratives displayed significantly more concern about climate change as well as more sustainable behaviors, compared with moderns and traditionals. The implications of these findings for environmental policy and social science are noteworthy.  相似文献   

9.
Evaluation of adaptive management options is very crucial for successfully dealing with negative climate change impacts. Research objectives of this study were (1) to determine the proper N application rate for current practice, (2) to select a range of synthetic wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars to expand the existing wheat cultivar pool for adaptation purpose, (3) to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield and (4) to evaluate the effectiveness of three common management options such as early sowing, changing N application rate and use of different wheat cultivars derived in (2) and given in the APSIM-Wheat model package in dealing with the projected negative impacts for Keith, South Australia. The APSIM-Wheat model was used to achieve these objectives. It was found that 75 kg ha?1 N application at sowing for current situation is appropriate for the study location. This provided a non-limiting N supply condition for climate change impact and adaptation evaluation. Negative impacts of climate change on wheat grain yield were projected under both high (?15%) and low (?10%) plant available water capacity conditions. Neither changes in N application level nor in wheat cultivar alone nor their synergistic effects could offset the negative climate change impact. It was found that early sowing is an effective adaptation strategy when initial soil water was reset at 25 mm at sowing but this may be hard to realise especially since a drier environment is projected.  相似文献   

10.
Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.  相似文献   

11.
The Enviroclub initiative was developed by three federal government agencies (Canada Economic Development for Quebec Regions, Environment Canada and the National Research Council Canada) to assist small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in improving their profitability and competitiveness through enhanced environmental performance. An Enviroclub consists of a group of 10–15 SMEs, each of which carries out one profitable pollution prevention project. To support this practical experience, business participants attend 4 days of workshops on various themes related to environmental performance, spread out over a period of about 6 months. Enviroclubs have been undertaken in several regions of Quebec, and are delivered by not-for-profit organisations, mainly Enviro-Access and the Centre québécois de développement durable. Projects implemented in seven Enviroclubs brought annual savings of CAD$5.1 million and multiple environmental benefits including annual reductions in resource use, such as water (536,000 m3), petroleum products (225,000 litres), wood (11,300 m3) and emissions, such as greenhouse gases (17,100 tonnes equivalent CO2), hazardous wastes (708 tonnes) and toxic substances (53 tonnes).  相似文献   

12.
Cities are developing innovative strategies to combat climate change but there remains little knowledge of the winners and losers from climate-adaptive land use planning and design. We examine the distribution of health benefits associated with land use policies designed to increase vegetation and surface reflectivity in three US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, GA, Philadelphia, PA, and Phoenix, AZ. Projections of population and land cover at the census tract scale were combined with climate models for the year 2050 at 4 km × 4 km resolution to produce future summer temperatures which were input into a comparative risk assessment framework for the temperature-mortality relationship. The findings suggest disparities in the effectiveness of urban heat management strategies by age, income, and race. We conclude that, to be most protective of human health, urban heat management must prioritize areas of greatest population vulnerability.  相似文献   

13.
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are synthetically produced compounds primarily used for cooling purposes and with strong global warming properties. In this paper, we analyze the global abatement costs for achieving the substantial reductions in HFC consumption agreed in the Kigali Amendment (KA) of the Montreal Protocol from October 2016. We estimate that compliance with the KA is expected to remove 39 Pg CO2eq or 61% of global baseline HFC emissions over the entire period 2018–2050. The marginal cost of meeting the KA targets is expected to remain below 60 €/t CO2eq throughout the period in all world regions except for developed regions where legislation to control HFC emissions has already been in place since a few years. For the latter regions, the required HFC consumption reduction is expected to come at a marginal cost increasing steadily to between 90 and 118 €/t CO2eq in 2050. Depending on the expected rate of technological development and the extent to which envisaged electricity savings can be realized, compliance with KA is estimated attainable at a global cost ranging from a net cost-saving of 240 billion € to a net cost of 350 billion € over the entire period 2018 to 2050 and with future global electricity-savings estimated at between 0.2% and 0.7% of expected future electricity consumption.  相似文献   

14.
Climate change alone may deeply impact air quality levels in the atmosphere because the changes in the meteorological conditions will induce changes on the transport, dispersion and transformation of air pollutants. The aim of this work was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the air quality over Europe and Portugal, using a reference year (year 1990) and a IPCC SRES A2 year (year 2100). The Hadley Centre global atmospheric circulation model (HadAM3P) was used to provide results for these two climatic scenarios, which were then used as synoptic forcing for the MM5-CHIMERE air quality modelling system. In order to assess the contribution of future climate change on O3 and PM concentrations, no changes in regional emissions were assumed and only climate change forcing was considered. The modelling results suggest that the O3 monthly mean levels in the atmosphere may increase almost 50 μg m?3 across Europe in July under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. In Portugal, this increase may reach 20 μg m?3. The changes of PM10 monthly average values over Europe will depend on the region. The increase in PM10 concentrations during specific months could be explained by the average reduction of the boundary layer height and wind speed.  相似文献   

15.
Using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) for biogas production might contribute to greenhouse gas mitigation, but emissions linked with biogas production can reduce these beneficial effects. Therefore the emissions of NH3, CH4 and N2O and costs caused by treating OFMSW by co-fermentation with slurry were calculated in detail from literature data, and strategies for reducing emissions were evaluated. Emission factors were calculated for single gases during storage and after application. The sensitivity of the calculations concerning the organic dry matter content of OFMSW, retention time and CH4-yield was analyzed. The anaerobic co-fermentation of OFMSW increased biogas yields and contributed to the reduction of CO2 emissions with 32 to 152 kg CO2 t−1 organic waste depending on application and storage techniques used for the fermentation residues. Considering a payment of 0.1 €/kWh for the electricity produced, the costs for utilization of OFMSW in slurry based biogas plants were calculated to range between 34 and 38  t−1. Measures for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions by covering the fermentation residue stores proved to be more cost effective with 3–31  t−1 CO2 compared to immediate harrowing or injecting the residues during field application.  相似文献   

16.
Dyeing fabrics in supercritical carbon dioxide (SCD) instead of water can save energy, reduce water use and prevent pollution. The special pilot plant was designed to test dyeing procedures in supercritical carbon dioxide and the analyses of the results indicate major benefits as compared to water based procedures. The dyeing of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) fabric in supercritical carbon dioxide using special pilot plant was investigated. Disperse dye, C.I. (color index) Disperse Blue 79, was used in this study. After dyeing, rinsing in supercritical carbon dioxide, which removes the excess dyes, was also discussed. At the same dyeing conditions, K/S (color yield) of dyed fabric significantly increased with increasing the dye concentration from 1% o.w.f. (on weight of fabric) to 5% o.w.f. Dyeing temperature and pressure had a strong influence on the color yield. When the temperature rose above 110 °C, the increase in color yield was obvious. At 20 MPa, 120–130 °C, dyeing reached equilibrium after 60 min. The excess dye of the dyed PET fabric was small. The suitable condition in supercritical carbon dioxide for removal of excess dye from the dyed fabric was 70 °C, 20 MPa. The PET fabric dyed in supercritical carbon dioxide had good fastness and physical properties.  相似文献   

17.
A displacement factor can express the efficiency of using biomass to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, by quantifying the amount of emission reduction achieved per unit of wood use. Here we integrate data from 21 different international studies in a meta-analysis of the displacement factors of wood products substituted in place of non-wood materials. We calculate the displacement factors in consistent units of tons of carbon (tC) of emission reduction per tC in wood product. The displacement factors range from a low of ?2.3 to a high of 15, with most lying in the range of 1.0 to 3.0. The average displacement factor value is 2.1, meaning that for each tC in wood products substituted in place of non-wood products, there occurs an average GHG emission reduction of approximately 2.1 tC. Expressed in other units, this value corresponds to roughly 3.9 t CO2 eq emission reduction per ton of dry wood used. The few cases of negative displacement factors are the result of worst-case scenarios that are unrealistic in current practice. This meta-analysis quantifies the range of GHG benefits of wood substitution, and provides a clear climate rationale for increasing wood substitution in place of other products, provided that forests are sustainably managed and that wood residues are used responsibly.  相似文献   

18.
The use of municipal wastewater in agriculture requires a careful monitoring of a range of hygiene parameters. Yearly hygienic impact assessments on soil and fruit were made between 2000 and 2006 in an olive (Olea europaea L.) grove established near a municipal wastewater treatment plant in Southern Italy (Ferrandina–Basilicata region, 40°29′ N, 16°28′ E). The experimental grove was managed in two plots. The first plot, non-tilled, was drip irrigated daily with reclaimed wastewater. The second plot was unirrigated (i.e. rainfed) and subject to conventional management for the region. Samples of wetted soil from different depths and of treated wastewater were analysed for Escherichia coli, enterococci, sulphite-reducing Clostridium spores and Salmonella spp. Fruits were collected both from the canopy and from nets spread on the ground and analysed for faecal contamination. The average annual quantity of wastewater distributed was 293 mm. E. coli concentration in the wastewater varied considerably, being frequently above the stringent Italian mandatory limit of 10 CFU 100 mL?1 and also the WHO limit of 1000 MPN 100 mL?1. Salmonella was never detected in the wastewater, the soil or on the fruit samples. Slight increases in the other bacteria were observed in the wastewater-irrigated soil during the irrigation season and especially in the top 10 cm. Soil resilience and bacterial mortality/inactivation probably explains the seasonal decrease of soil bacteria content over the 7 years of the study. Because of their high resistance to disinfection treatments and to environmental conditions, the spores of the sulphite-reducing bacterium Clostridium could be useful as an indicator of contamination in future guidelines that might be enacted for the use of wastewater in agriculture. No significant microbial contamination was recorded on fruit harvested directly from the canopy of the wastewater-irrigated trees. Contaminations on fruits sampled from the ground in the wastewater-irrigated plot were always low and usually similar to, or lower than those observed on drupes collected from the rainfed plot. In the rainfed plot, the recorded occasional contaminations were probably due to a number of factors, such as grazing of farm stock, presence of wild animals and surface water runoff from adjacent agricultural areas. This work confirms that, under suitable conditions, low-quality wastewater can be useful as an additional water resource for olive irrigation in water-scarce Mediterranean environments.  相似文献   

19.
Abandonment of marginal agricultural areas with subsequent secondary succession is a widespread type of land use change in Mediterranean and mountain areas of Europe, leading to important environmental consequences such as change in the water balance, carbon cycling, and regional climate. Paired eddy flux measurement design with grassland site and tree/shrub encroached site has been set-up in the Slovenian Karst (submediterranean climate region) to investigate the effects of secondary succession on ecosystem carbon cycling. The invasion of woody plant species was found to significantly change carbon balance shifting annual NEE from source to an evident sink. According to one year of data succession site stored ?126 ± 14 g C m?2 y?1 while grassland site emitted 353 ± 72 g C m?2 y?1. In addition, the seasonal course of CO2 exchange differed between both succession stages, which can be related to differences in phenology, i.e. activity of prevailing plant species, and modified environmental conditions within forest fragments of the invaded site. Negligible effect of instrument heating was observed which proves the Burba correction in our ecosystems unnecessary. Unexpectedly high CO2 emissions and large disagreement with soil respiration especially on the grassland site in late autumn indicate additional sources of carbon which cannot be biologically processes, such as degassing of soil pores and caves after rain events.  相似文献   

20.
This study discusses soil fertility under perennial cash crop farming (para rubber, Hevea brasiliensis; black pepper, Piper nigrum; oil palm, Elaeis guineensis) conducted by local farmers and an oil palm estate in an upland area of Sarawak, Malaysia, in comparison with the surrounding secondary forests. In the farmlands of the local farmers, rubber farming was conducted without fertilizer application, while 2–5 t ha?1 of NPK compounds were applied annually on pepper farms. Soils under rubber farming were acidic with poor nutrient contents, resembling soils in secondary forests. In pepper farms, soils were less acidic and showed high nutrient contents, especially with respect to available P and exchangeable Ca. This trend became stronger with increasing farming duration. Fertilizers applied around pepper vines appeared to migrate and spread across the fields. Bulk density and hardness of surface soils were higher in pepper farms than in secondary forests, indicating soil compaction due to field works. In the oil palm estate, annual fertilizer application rates were moderate at 0.4–0.8 t ha?1 of NPK compound fertilizers. However, the soil properties in the oil palm estate were similar to those of the small-scale pepper farms. Close to the bases of the palms where fertilizers usually are applied, the contents of exchangeable Ca and available P were high. Nutrient uptake by the dense root systems of the palms seemed to prevent excessive loss of nutrients through leaching. Loss of soil organic matter and deterioration of soil physical properties were brought about by terrace bench construction, but the soils seemed to recover to some extent over time. In conclusion, technologies such as intercropping and the appropriate allocation of different crops to specific locations as well as the proper selection and dosage of fertilizers should be developed and adopted to improve fertilizer efficiency and prevent water pollution due to fertilizer wash-off from farmlands.  相似文献   

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