Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark ‘real’ risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how ‘experts’ – defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders – construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.     

Crop losses: The need to quantify the effects of pests,diseases and weeds on agricultural production

Crop losses caused by pests, including rodents and birds, and by diseases and weeds, are defined, and previous studies reviewed. Information about losses is needed to monitor the effects of pests and diseases on crop production, in individual countries and worldwide, important for food policy and economic reasons; to make decisions and allocate resources on the study, management and control of pests and diseases; to stimulate action against them; to provide guidelines for research on crop improvement to prevent pest and disease attack; and as a basis for judgement on the importance of pests, diseases and weeds in relation to agriculture and the environment.The causes of such losses, why information must be up to date, and methods of assessing pests, diseases, weeds and losses are examined. The part played by losses in the development and use of economic pest and disease control action thresholds is discussed, including pest, disease, crop, climatic, economic and farmer attitude factors. The types of relation between yield and pest and disease attack are reviewed, how to measure the relation in practice, how to obtain different amounts of attack, surveys of losses, and the difficulties met in the study of losses: interaction; compensation; interplot interference; variation; and distribution. Sources of information on world losses, training and the work of the FAO are reviewed. General guidelines on crop loss assessment are given.     

Exploring public perceptions of solutions to tree diseases in the UK: Implications for policy-makers

Tree diseases are on the increase in many countries and the implications of their appearance can be political, as well as ecological and economic. Preventative policy approaches to tree diseases are difficult to formulate because dispersal pathways for pest and pathogens are numerous, poorly known and likely to be beyond human management control. Genomic techniques could offer the quickest and most predictable approach to developing a disease tolerant native ash.The population of European Ash (Fraxinus Excelsior) has suffered major losses in the last decade, due to the onset of Hymenoscyphus fraxineus (previously called Chalara Fraxinea) commonly known in the UK as ash dieback. This study presents evidence on the public acceptability of tree-breed solutions to the spread of Chalara, with the main aim to provide science and policy with an up-stream ‘steer’ on the likely public acceptability of different tree breeding solutions. The findings showed that whilst there was a firm anti-GM and ‘we shouldn’t tamper with nature’ attitude among UK publics, there was an equally firm and perhaps slightly larger pragmatic attitude that GM (science and technology) should be used if there is a good reason to do so, for example if it can help protect trees from disease and help feed the world. The latter view was significantly stronger among younger age groups (Millennials), those living in urban areas and when the (GM)modified trees were destined for urban and plantation, rather than countryside settings. Overall, our findings suggest that the UK government could consider genomic solutions to tree breeding with more confidence in the future, as large and influential publics appear to be relaxed about the use of genomic techniques to increase tolerance of trees to disease.     

Considering agro-ecosystems as ecological funds for collective design: New perspectives for environmental policy

Enhancing agro-ecosystem sustainability raises difficult challenges for environmental policy: it requires both increasing knowledge on these complex systems to design effective solutions and coordinating stakeholders with diverging interests. However, most existing environmental policies consider ecosystems’ desirable properties as given, leading ecosystem managers to favor “turnkey” solutions. How could public policy better support local collective initiatives aiming at reconciling agriculture and the environment? This paper presents an empirical case study from western France, in which a partnership between an agricultural cooperative and an ecological research center resulted in a collective design initiative. We conceptually model this initiative drawing upon recent design theories and Georgescu-Roegen’s ‘fund-flow’ model, defining ‘ecological funds’ as the starting point of a collective design process. The results highlight the importance of developing policy instruments that can better support local innovation processes through greater democratization. Adopting a design approach to sustainable agricultural landscape management could be particularly fruitful in situations where collective action is necessary but where there is no common good recognized as such, and no existing community identified.     

树木健康与病虫草害的关系分析

本文论述了树木健康与病害、虫害、草害的关系。     

新建核电站风险信息沟通实证研究

随着我国近年核电产业的迅速扩张,核风险管理已成为社会各界关注甚至争议的热点.核风险沟通是核突发事件预防、应对及恢复的关键要素,对核风险管理具有重要的影响.然而,对如何与核电站周边风险群体进行有效沟通还知之甚少.为弥补这个缺憾,作者走访了山东海阳在建核电站相关管理人员并对周边常住居民进行问卷调查,以了解他们对核电发展的态度.文章描述了风险沟通的基本框架,意识到公众信任和信息公开的重要性.结果发现我国核能发展决策是由政府部门、核能企业和科研院所组成的"铁三角"主导的,受访者获取核信息的最主要途径是媒体,相对于其它渠道,超过51%的公众更相信政府发布的信息,更多受访者不愿意接受核风险和反对在当地建设核电站.最后提出了有效风险沟通的基本原则.研究结论对未来核电风险管理具有重要指导意义,也对利益相关方具有参考价值.     

Governance of complex environmental situations through social learning: a synthesis of SLIM's lessons for research,policy and practice

This synthesis of the SLIM project findings deals with the development and deployment of knowledge and research that is useful for actions that transform at socially and ecologically meaningful scales. A diagnostic framework (DF) is elaborated that aims to transform the findings into a tool that could bring stakeholders, in other contexts, to understand better their own roles in complex natural resource management situations. The DF invites the user to engage in successive stages of comprehension by exploring: what are complex situations of change about? What are the main components involved? Why are these components important? How do they influence what we know and how we act? What could be our role in changing the situation? We identify five ‘variables’ that together can account systemically for transformation processes that are constituted in social learning and concerted actions. We show how the DF may be used in situations of complexity and uncertainty by researchers, acting variously as observer, facilitator or co-researcher, and how it may help to guide research practice. We conclude by consolidating key messages about the relationship between knowledge, research, and policy and the main implications for water managers of being open to social learning processes.     

Policy implementation of catchment-scale flood risk management: Learning from Scotland and England

Recent years have seen a gradual adoption of a “catchment-scale” approach to flood risk management into European policy-making which, amongst other objectives, promotes rural land use change to reduce flood risk. While some exploratory studies of land managers’ attitudes exist, research is lacking on how public policies can be mobilised locally to implement these ideas. Two local initiatives were analysed in the transboundary River Tweed basin in Scotland and England during which public authorities negotiated with land managers. A combination of documents (N = 21) and interviews (N = 63) forms the basis of the data analysed. The results showed that implementation is highly dependent on the local policy framework, the activities of implementers, and land managers’ responses to (combination of) policy instruments. Several factors were identified influencing implementation such as devolution arrangements (i.e. from national to regional/local), the level of local interest on flood risk, local attitudes to compromise and collaboration, available policy instruments, and the existence of participatory catchment organisations. With limited scope for stand-alone regulatory action or funding in the short term, synergies and measures promoting co-benefits in flood risk management should be further sought in the Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans, as well as in cross-compliance and the new agri-environment-climate strategies of the common agricultural policy.     

Attitudes towards sex selection in the Western world

It appears that in most Western countries, son preference is somewhat stronger than daughter preference. However, when one considers the preference of women it looks as though the opposite pattern is emerging. There is a considerable social acceptance of ‘light’ methods of sex selection (such as diets), even though these methods are not proven to be effective. The inclination to use sperm separation methods appears to be greater in the United States than in some European countries. There are indications that a preference for boys or for girls is associated with attitudes towards technology, child-rearing style and the stereotyping of boys or girls. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and human health—what influences the adoption of adaptation programming in the United States public health system?

With growing evidence on how climate change impacts human health, public health agencies should develop adaptation programs focused on the impacts predicted to affect their jurisdictions. However, recent research indicates that public health agencies in the United States have done little to prepare the public for predicted climate change impacts, largely due in response to a lack of resources and priority. This study surveyed Environmental Health (EH) Directors across the United States to determine the extent to which individual level attitudes and beliefs influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programming in a department. The results indicate that an EH Director’s perception of the health risk posed by climate change explained 27% of the variance in the number of climate change impacts being addressed. Furthermore, the study found that environmental attitude and political views made strong, unique contributions in explaining the variance in risk perception. The results provide evidence that individual-level attitudes and beliefs, as well as organizational-level barriers influence the adoption of climate change adaptation programs in public health agencies. As a result, increasing EH Directors’ perception of risk by highlighting the likelihood and severity of localized impacts may increase the adoption of adaptation programming despite existing organizational barriers (e.g., lack of resources). Given the fact that risk perception has been shown to influence behavior across cultures, these findings are also useful for understanding the influence of individual decision makers on public health programming around the world.     

A review of the use of models of weed control in Integrated Crop Protection

An examination is made of the role that mathematical modelling can have in developing integrated strategies, involving reduced dependence on chemicals, for controlling weeds, pests and diseases in crops. From a detailed survey of the application of models to weed control, it is concluded that modelling has fundamentally been concerned with answering issues that contribute comparatively little to our understanding of ‘sustainable’ systems of crop protection. There has been a strong concentration of effort on simulating the impacts of herbicides and on identifying ‘threshold’ levels for spraying. Issues such as herbicide resistance, weed-crop interference and integrated weed management systems have received scant attention. None-the-less, given the complexity of the management systems involved in Integrated Crop Protection, mathematical modelling would seem to be a potentially valuable tool. In the case of some forms of control, such as biological and genetic, it is also arguable that modelling the consequences is imperative, given the potential risks involved.     

Pest outbreak distribution and forest management impacts in a changing climate in British Columbia

This paper examines the risks associated with forest insect outbreaks in a changing climate from biological and forest management perspectives. Two important Canadian insects were considered: western spruce budworm (WSBW; Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman, Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), and spruce bark beetle (SBB; Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby, Coleoptera: Curculionidae). This paper integrates projections of tree species suitability, pest outbreak risk, and bio-economic modelling.Several methods of estimating pest outbreak risk were investigated. A simple climate envelope method based on empirically derived climate thresholds indicates substantial changes in the distribution of outbreaks in British Columbia for two climate scenarios and both pests. A “proof of concept” bio-economic model, to inform forest management decisions in a changing climate, considers major stand-level harvest decision factors, such as preservation of old-growth forest, and even harvest flow rates in the presence of changing tree species suitability and outbreak risk. The model was applied to data for the Okanagan Timber Supply Area and also the entire Province of British Columbia.At the provincial level, the model determined little net timber production impact, depending on which of two climate scenarios was considered. Several potentially important factors not considered in this first version of the model are discussed, which indicates that impact may be underestimated by this preliminary study. Despite these factors, negative impacts were projected at the Okanagan Timber Supply Area level for both scenarios.Policy implications are described as well as guidance for future work to determine impacts of climate change on future distribution and abundance of forest resources.     

粮食损失研究进展和展望

我国人多地少,粮食安全事关国家安全。因此,在重视增产的同时,需要不断关注粮食损失问题。通过回顾现有粮食损失的研究,总结文献中提出的重要问题,展望未来可能的研究方向。分析表明,现有研究主要集中在:(1)减少粮食损失的目的和效果的研究。包括增加粮食供给、保障国家安全,减少不必要的资源浪费、减轻环境压力,保障粮食质量、保证食品安全,以及增加粮食价值链参与者的利润等。(2)粮食产后各环节损失水平估计及其影响因素研究。(3)减少粮食损失的方法研究,包括品种改良、教育培训、改进储存设施等。在对现有研究综述的基础上,提出了几点展望:未来的研究应向粮食价值链下游环节拓展,对粮食质量损失程度进行定量分析,并关注粮食的最优损失水平。     

Constructing risks – Internalisation of flood risks in the flood risk management plan

Traditional flood protection methods have focused efforts on different measures to keep water out of floodplains. However, the European Flood Directive challenges this paradigm (Hartmann and Driessen, 2013). Accordingly, flood risk management plans should incorporate measures brought about by collaboration with local governments to develop and implement these measures (Johann and Leismann, 2014). One of the challenges of these plans is getting and keeping stakeholders involved in the processes related to flood risk management. This research shows that that this challenge revolves around how flood risks are socially constructed.Therefore it is essential to understand and explain the risk perception of stakeholders. System Theory by Luhmann provides the analytical distinction between ‘internal risk’ and ‘external danger’ as key concepts to understand whether or not stakeholders will take action (Luhmann, 1993). While perceptions of ‘external danger’ will not lead to action, perceptions of ‘internal risk’ urge stakeholders to take action.The cases of the rivers Lippe and Emscher in the dense populated region between Duisburg and Dortmund in Germany illustrate how these theoretical concepts materialise in practice. This contribution shows how flood risks are socially constructed and how this construction is influenced by the European flood risk management plan. While clearing up some of the difficulties from the Flood Directive, the research shows a gap between the Flood Directive and the current theory and planning practice, which needs to be addressed in further research.     

Evolving paradigms for landscape-scale renewable resource management in the United States

Patterns of selection and evolution of renewable resource management paradigms appear when strategies are considered across a temporal scale. The roles of renewable resource managers were established during the early twentieth century and have since evolved. Autocratic natural-science-based management (ANM) of renewable resources was institutionalized in the early twentieth century following the principle of management based on science with administrative decisions by professional agency employees. A more recent form of management paradigm is interactive natural-science-based management (INM) which provides for limited stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process. These historic paradigms often inadequately addressed social and political aspects of renewable resource management leading managers to adopt new management paradigms involving communications and negotiations among stakeholders, not just science and administrative decisions. The inability of either ANM or INM paradigms to win uncontested agency and public acceptance, coupled with demands to increase spatial scales of management and public (stakeholder) involvement, is providing impetus for emergence of a new paradigm. The evolving paradigm can be defined as collaborative natural- and social-science-based management (CNSM) and provides a framework for approaching and finding solutions to landscape-scale problems. Successful evolution of this paradigm will require removing barriers to societal involvement in management decision-making institutionalized over the past century.     

The governance of private residential land in cities and spatial effects on tree cover

Trees in cities supply ecosystem services, including cooling, storm water quality management, habitat, visual screening and softening of built form. There is an expanding interdisciplinary field encompassing biodiversity, ecosystem services, and stewardship networks in cities. However most of this work focuses on public greenspace. While much work has been done to demonstrate that trees on private land are an important complement to the public urban forest, and to understand the social drivers of such, less is known about the governance of private greenspace in cities. Private land contributes to a significant component of a city’s tree cover, particularly in cities characterised by low-density residential suburbs. It is important to understand the mechanisms that govern private tree cover, given the pace and scale of urbanisation globally. We combined policy and spatial analysis to examine the influence of larger and denser forms of residential development on suburban tree cover and the scope of contemporary governance measures. We interrogated tree cover patterns in the rapidly densifying and consolidating city of Brisbane, Australia, to show that private residential tree cover is explained by dwelling density, housing age, terrain slope, high school education, and household income. Results show significantly (30%) less tree cover in low-density residential suburbs developed since the early 1990s. We develop five governance principles for reversing the decline of urban trees on private residential property that may be transferable to other rapidly developing cities in around the world.     

Using the ‘sense of self-in-place’ construct in the context of environmental policy-making and landscape planning

Although it is common practice for resource managers to focus on processes by which human activity in the environment may be adapted to ensure the sustainability of natural ecosystems, we often forget that our perceptions of who we are given where we live greatly influence the political context for regional ecosystem management. These shared ‘senses of selves-in-place’ serve as potent mediators in the process of attending to or embracing conservation-oriented practices. The authors argue that citizens’ senses of selves-in-place form the major link between how people appraise communication appeals and how they behave in the environment. Discussion focuses on the significance of the association between a sense of place, how the self gets related to the environment, and sense making related to conservation-oriented advocacy. Past and contemporary empirical studies reveal various elements of the sense of self-in-place construct. In turn, the analysis focuses on the tension that often develops given the desires of local stakeholders in competition with land-use advocates from afar (e.g. industrialists, nongovernmental organizations) by exploring three case studies of regional natural resource conflicts. Conclusions address how a sense of self-in-place analysis could be incorporated into and add value to ongoing natural resource management efforts.