A decision framework for Integrated Assessment Modelling of air quality at regional and local scale

Decision making in the field of air quality and greenhouses gases reductions can nowadays be supported by a clear overall framework and by computer tools that integrate the most relevant aspects of the problem. This approach is particularly important at local scale since new general rules on emission abatement at European level can only marginally modify the most critical hotspots and may be very costly. This paper adapts the general Drivers, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses (DPSIR) scheme proposed by the European Environment Agency to the specific case of local air quality policies and shows how the most recent scientific developments in impact evaluation and social acceptance can be integrated. The proposed decision framework represents a general methodology to design Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) systems aimed at the implementation of effective Air Quality Plans (AQP). An extensive survey across European countries shows the current degree of adoption of these approaches.     

Fuzzy modelling to identify key drivers of ecological water quality to support decision and policy making

Water quality modelling is an effective tool to investigate, describe and predict the ecological state of an aquatic ecosystem. Various environmental variables may simultaneously affect water quality. Appropriate selection of a limited number of key-variables facilitates cost-effective management of water resources. This paper aims to determine (and analyse the effect of) the major environmental variables predicting ecological water quality through the application of fuzzy models. In this study, a fuzzy logic methodology, previously applied to predict species distributions, was extended to model environmental effects on a whole community. In a second step, the developed models were applied in a more general water management context to support decision and policy making. A hill-climbing optimisation algorithm was applied to relate ecological water quality and environmental variables to the community indicator. The optimal model was selected based on the predictive performance (Cohen’s Kappa), ecological relevance and model’s interpretability. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed as an extra element to analyse and evaluate the optimal model. The optimal model included the variables land use, chlorophyll and flow velocity. The variable selection method and sensitivity analysis indicated that land use influences ecological water quality the most and that it affects the effect of other variables on water quality to a high extent. The model outcome can support spatial planning related to land use in river basins and policy making related to flows and water quality standards. Fuzzy models are transparent to a wide range of users and therefore may stimulate communication between modellers, river managers, policy makers and stakeholders.     

Effective risk governance for environmental policy making: A knowledge management perspective

Effective risk management within environmental policy making requires knowledge on natural, economic and social systems to be integrated; knowledge characterised by complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity. We describe a case study in a (UK) central government department exploring how risk governance supports and hinders this challenging integration of knowledge. Forty-five semi-structured interviews were completed over a two year period. We found that lateral knowledge transfer between teams working on different policy areas was widely viewed as a key source of knowledge. However, the process of lateral knowledge transfer was predominantly informal and unsupported by risk governance structures. We argue this made decision quality vulnerable to a loss of knowledge through staff turnover, and time and resource pressures. Our conclusion is that the predominant form of risk governance framework, with its focus on centralised decision-making and vertical knowledge transfer is insufficient to support risk-based, environmental policy making. We discuss how risk governance can better support environmental policy makers through systematic knowledge management practices.     

A comparison of multiple criteria analysis and unaided approaches to environmental decision making

This study compares multiple criteria analysis (MCA) assisted decisions and unaided decisions in an environmental management context. It involved 55 decision makers in Queensland, Australia, who used MCA techniques to evaluate environmental projects alongside their own intuitive approaches under the Australian Natural Heritage Trust (NHT) program. The NHT is Australia's largest environmental program funded over A$ 2.5 billion over 10 years. The study assessed decision maker learning and perceptions of MCA's overall usefulness. It was found that MCA produced markedly different results to unaided evaluations. Feedback from decision makers typically showed that unaided decisions did not make explicit use of evaluation criteria. Even though most decision makers were unwilling to change their choices following the use of MCA, they found it a helpful input to their decision procedure. The majority of decision makers supported the adoption of MCA to make future investment decisions under the NHT program.     

经济开发区人-模交互式不确定环境系统规划方法初探

简要分析了经济开发区环境规划的特点,指出目前所采用的方法不可能有效地实现对开发区环境经济系统的优化设计。为了解决这个问题,文中提出一套基于环境承载力的不确定性人－模交互式环境系统规划方法,将大气、水及资源等子系统有机地通过模型整合起来,并充分考虑到了环境经济系统的不确定性与部分因子的不可量化性,通过人与模型的交互过程,将决策者及专家的知识和经验与模型结合起来,从而尽可能地保证规划决策结果的科学性和可操作性     

空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE研发

为了评估空气污染带来的健康冲击、评估健康效益,克服现有评估工具(BenMAP V4.0)计算速度缓慢及用户体验较差等问题,受美国环保署委托,设计并研发了新一代空气污染与健康效益评估工具BenMAP CE,搭建了BenMAP CE的框架,进行了详细功能设计,并利用美国环保署提供的数据进行了实测.测试结果表明,基于相同的输入文件和设置,BenMAP CE能重现BenMAP V4.0的计算结果,相比现有的评估工具,BenMAP CE具有良好的用户体验、强大的GIS展示功能及大幅提高的计算速度.BenMAP CE是考虑了污染物环境浓度削减、人口密度、收入差异等经济因素的综合性评估工具,能为决策者评估空气污染控制措施所带来的健康效益提供辅助决策依据.     

测量不确定度评定及实例分析

一切测量结果都不可避免地具有不确定度。合理的分析评定不确定度是实验室内部质量控制和评价检测质量非常重要的程序之一,也是环境监测实验室必须重视的问题。作为环境监测部门,要给予足够的重视,掌握相关测量不确定度评定方法并应用到实际工作中,保证监测结果的准确、可靠、可信。文章通过测量水中的总氮含量为例,通过总氮测定过程,分析了影响总氮测量不确定度的因素,给出了相对标准不确定度分量,并具体阐明了测量不确定度的评定步骤,得出测量扩展不确定度的结果。     

模糊物元法综合评价福州市大气环境质量

大气环境质量的综合评价是城市环境质量考核的重要内容,鉴于大气环境质量评价中客观存在的不确定性和模糊性,将熵值理论与模糊物元分析法相结合应用于大气环境质量综合评价中,可有效解决这种不确定性和模糊性。应用该模型对福州市的大气环境质量进行综合评价,将评价结果与属性识别理论模型的评价结果相比较,二者基本吻合,结果证明该方法可行。     

大气环境质量现状评价模型存在的问题及改进——以沈阳大气指数模型为例

文章分析了几类大气环境质量现状评价模型各自存在的问题,针对这些问题,选择了较典型的沈阳大气指数模型,首先对原模型中参数进行修正,使其成为与当前执行的环境空气质量标准相对应的综合指数模型,其次,基于概率统计思想对模型进行改进,得到不同保证率下的大气环境质量现状评价模型,最后,运用SPSS软件进行实证分析,改进后模型得到的评价结果更能准确反映区域实际大气环境质量现状。     

水质模型科学性内涵的探讨

水质模型的科学性是其方法论上的重要问题,对数学模型科学性的理解将直接影响其在实际工作中的应用。本研究在国内外大量研究成果的基础上,从科学哲学的角度,对水质模型科学性的基本观点进行了总结和发展。研究认为,数学模型不是现实情况的简单复制,因此同时存在着机理性和经验性;数学模型的复杂程度应与能够获得的数据相对应,才能尽可能取得比较准确的预测结果;模型预测结果的不确定性不可避免;而模型的最终相似性为数学模型应用的合理性提供了一定的依据。对数学模型科学性的客观理解,将更好地指导水质模型在环境决策中的应用。     

Adaptive management intentions with a reality of evaluation: Getting science back into policy

In Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin water reform has been contentious as government attempts to reconcile historical over allocation of water to irrigation with the use of water for environmental outcomes. However, in many aspects, scientific knowledge of the environment is either imperfect, incomplete or environmental responses are unpredictable, with this uncertainty preventing definitive policy and closure of political arguments. In response to uncertainty and knowledge gaps, adaptive management has been written into the legislation, along with provisions for periodic evaluation.This research ascertains how adaptive management is understood by policy makers, with this indicative of future implementation of adaptive management. The way in which adaptive management is constructed by policy makers is determined through legislation, public speeches, government reports and semi-structured interviews. The findings demonstrate that adaptive management has been subsumed by evaluation. The loss of adaptive management as a distinct concept is seen as a loss of science and discovery from the policy process, with the dominance of evaluation discussed as limiting innovation and reinforcing a ‘muddling through’ of policy.     

The use of word-based models to describe the development of UK acid rain policy in the 1980s

Understanding how environmental policy decisions were reached in the past might help predict policy development in the future. This paper evaluates how well two existing frameworks for decision analysis fit acid rain policy development of the UK Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) in the 1980s. Decision tree analysis assumes a rational approach to decision-making and overlooks the dynamic nature of the decision making process. Trudgill's model identifies barriers to policy development, but it is not possible to identify which are most important. Both concentrate on the role of scientific uncertainty in the acid rain debate. An alternative approach is presented which identifies all possible influencing factors and assesses their relative influence. Whilst confirming the importance of the resolution of scientific uncertainty in this case study, it identifies a number of alternative pressure sources, including independent scientific review, rises in SO₂ emissions, European environmental legislation, and influences within the Government. In all three models, ascribing predictive values to all possible options is a major problem. All models are limited in their ability to describe complex and dynamic environmental problems, and hence have limited predictive powers. Decision tree analysis and Trudgill's barriers model identify how scientific uncertainty is dealt with within organisations, whilst the influencing factors approach puts decisions in a broader, political framework.     

生命周期评价在环境管理中应用的局限性及其技术进展研究

生命周期评价法(Life Cycle Assessment)在国际上广泛应用于工业企业部门、政府管理部门和服务行业,但最突出的贡献是在环境管理方面的应用.LCA的技术框架分为确定目的与范围、生命周期清单分析、生命周期影响评价(LCIA)和结果解释4个部分.LCIA的方法可归纳为中点法和终点法.LCA存在数据获取、清单分配、边界选择、评价模型、时空限制,以及结果不确定性等方面的局限性.为适应环境管理和评价技术本身的要求,LCA评价技术朝系统化方向发展,目前主要有IO-LCA、ALCA、CLCA、LCC、S-LCA和LCSA等评价技术.不同的评价技术从不同侧面拓展了LCA的应用领域和回避LCA评价的局限性,使得LCA越来越成为环境管理不可或缺的工具.     

提高空气质量指数准确性的建议

空气质量指数是国际上普遍采用的定量评价空气质量好坏的重要指标,但各国统计标准和方法有所不同,对环境的评价结果也存在一定差异。由于受多种因素的影响,中国目前的空气质量指数常常表现出与公众感受及其他环境监测指标不相一致的现象。针对于此,结合中国城市发展和环境监测技术的实际情况,提出了优化设置空气质量监测点、提高空气污染物浓度标准、增加空气质量统计指标和改进空气质量指数统计方法等改进建议,以进一步提高空气质量指数指示环境的准确性。     

基于非线性响应函数和蒙特卡洛模拟的滇池流域污染负荷削减情景分析

为定量了解滇池外海水质对流域污染负荷削减率的响应变化程度,并评估相关决策的潜在风险,在长期的水质模拟结果基础之上,本文使用内嵌非线性响应函数的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在2个不确定性水平下（5%和10%的变异范围）分析滇池外海为达到3个水质目标情景（Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类）的污染负荷削减及其不确定性.模型结果表明,在2种不确定性水平...     

集对分析法在大气环境质量评价中的应用

在集对分析原理的基础上,建立集对分析方法评价大气环境质量的新模型。通过实例研究,与模糊综合评判法、属性识别法以及改性属性识别法比较,集对分析方法评价模型严谨,计算简便,评价结果更合理、精细、稳定,为大气环境质量综合评价提供了一种简单而适用的评价方法。     

共享"红线" ——宜昌市环境总体规划信息管理与应用系统(V1.0)开发研究

在宜昌环境总体规划(2013-2030)得到市人大批复实施的背景下,为共享环境总体规划生态功能红线、环境质量红线与资源开发红线("三条红线")、为满足提供规划实施与评估有效途径的实际需求,在市信息办及环保局现有业务信息系统现状评价基础上,综合运用GIS、海量空间数据管理、SOA架构、瓦片地图分发、移动GIS等技术,设计开发了宜昌市环境总体规划信息管理与应用系统(V1.0),实现了"三条红线"等相关数据成果的地图展示、查询等精确管理分析以及项目环境影响评价的辅助决策.     

Emergetic ternary diagrams: five examples for application in environmental accounting for decision-making

In a recent paper, “A combined tool for environmental scientists and decision makers: ternary diagrams and emergy accounting.” [Giannetti BF, Barrella FA, Almeida CMVB. A combined tool for environmental scientists and decision makers: ternary diagrams and emergy accounting. J Clean Prod, in press] Ternary diagrams were proposed as a graphical tool to assist emergy analysis. The graphical representation of the emergy accounting data makes it possible to compare processes and systems with and without ecosystem services, to evaluate improvements and to follow the system performance over time. The graphic tool is versatile and adaptable to represent products, processes, systems, countries, and different periods of time.The use and the versatility of ternary diagrams for assisting in performing emergy analyses are illustrated by means of five examples taken from the literature, which are presented and discussed. It is shown that emergetic ternary diagram's properties assist the assessment of the system efficiency, its dependence upon renewable and non-renewable inputs and the environmental support for dilution and abatement of process emissions. With the aid of ternary diagrams, details such as the interaction between systems and between systems and the environment are recognized and evaluated. Such a tool for graphical analysis allows a transparent presentation of the results and can serve as an interface between emergy scientists and decision makers, provided the meaning of each line in the diagram is carefully explained and understood.     

基于大气特征污染物的监测布点选址优化研究

针对常规大气环境监测未能对局部特殊污染情况进行表征的缺陷,提出基于特征污染物的监测布点选址优化方法:首先运用综合评分方法筛选区域大气特征污染物,然后建立综合了环境、经济和社会因素的多目标规划模型,并通过模糊层次分析法计算各子目标权重系数,最后应用lingo软件对模型优化求解,得到最优的监测点位布设方案.以南京市仙林地区为案例研究的结果表明,基于大气特征污染物的监测布点多目标模型能够得到较合理的优化点位布局,在3种情景中,选择的最优点位分别为25#、43#, 25#、43#、54#和25#、43#、54#、77#, 为实际大气环境监测优化布点提供科学指导.