Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

Perspectives on social capacity building for natural hazards: outlining an emerging field of research and practice in Europe

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. By way of conclusion, we encourage more research on social capacity building for natural hazards in the European context which at present is highly diverse and, at least in parts, only poorly investigated.     

Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change

Individuals, businesses, and policymakers face the problem of selecting a preferred strategy for adapting a managed ecosystem to future climate change when there is risk and/or uncertainty about future climate change and its ecosystem impacts, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies (i.e., performance of an adaptive strategy given a particular future climate change scenario occurs). Evaluation methods for this purpose are described for two cases; one in which the decision-maker can (climate risk case) and cannot (climate uncertainty case) assign probabilities to future climate change scenarios. Fuzzy sets are used to characterize uncertainty regarding both future climate change, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies. The preferred conditional adaptive strategy for a future climate change scenario is determined by ordering the adaptive strategies for that scenario using a fuzzy set operation. Two methods are described for determining the adaptive strategy that is preferred across all climate change scenarios. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate risk case is determined by maximizing a performance index for strategies. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate uncertainty case is determined using the minimax regret criterion, which selects the strategy that minimizes the maximum loss in performance that can occur across all strategies and climate change scenarios. Ways for making the evaluation methods dynamic are considered.     

A framework and indicators for evaluating policies for conservation and development: The case of wildlife management units in Mexico

The Mexican government has an innovative policy model for biodiversity conservation and rural development that includes permissible use of wildlife within a System of Land Management Units (SUMA, by its Spanish acronym). This co-management approach has been successful in terms of landowner participation, since the SUMA currently covers 38.2 million hectares (nearly 20% of Mexican territory). However, after 18 years of implementation, there has been no comprehensive evaluation by which to assess its effectiveness at national level. This article introduces the SUMA policy, its implementation and outcomes, and proposes a framework for conducting institutional monitoring and evaluation within an adaptive co-management approach. Our methodology comprised analysis of the achievements and challenges reported through interviews with stakeholders, journals and grey literature, and a review of the SUMA Information System (SIS) and its decision-making information needs. As result we have developed a set of 40 environmental, social and economic indicators grouped into five distinct but complementary dimensions within a sustainability framework: (I) Biodiversity conservation,(II) Wildlife management, (III) Economics, (IV) Social welfare and (V) Administration. These indicators can be incorporated into the SIS in order to support program evaluation and strengthen decision-making. Our article provides specific pathways for developing policy-oriented evaluation systems for worldwide biodiversity and conservation initiatives.     

Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark ‘real’ risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how ‘experts’ – defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders – construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.     

Making sense of complexity in risk governance in post-disaster Fukushima fisheries: A scalar approach

This paper evaluates how geographical theories of scale can give a more robust understanding of the governance of complex environmental risks. We assess the case of fisheries in Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture in Japan following the 2011 nuclear disaster. Fisheries in Iwaki and Fukushima more widely are operating on a trial basis as understanding of the marine radiation situation becomes clearer, however questions remain over whether consumers will buy produce and to what extent full-scale fisheries will resume. Based on empirical fieldwork undertaken in Fukushima plus supporting documentary analysis, we construct a scalar account of post-disaster Iwaki fisheries. We use this to argue that framing post-disaster fisheries governance at the municipal scale rather than the prefectural scale has opened up opportunities for enacting the more two-way forms of risk governance that contemporary environmental issues may require. We also argue locally-situated ‘experts’ (e.g. fisheries extension officers and citizen science groups) play a key role in negotiating citizens’ and fishers’ relationships with larger-scale scientific discourses due to their ability to work across scales, despite having less techno-scientific expertise than their national-level counterparts. In turn, we suggest that in governance of complex environmental issues, policymakers ought to (a) consider how community-level expectations may differ from risk governance processes developed at larger scales; (b) identify key institutions or figures who can work across scales and support them accordingly; and (c) show cognisance to the social effects that may arise from spatial demarcation of environmental problems.     

A Method for Constructing a Social Vulnerability Index: An Application to Hurricane Storm Surges in a Developed Country

An important goal of vulnerability assessment is to create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators. Constructing a vulnerability index raises several problems in the aggregation of these indicators, including the decision of assigning weights to them. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a method of aggregating vulnerability indicators that results in a composite index of vulnerability, but that avoids the problems associated with assigning weights. The investigators apply a technique based on Pareto ranking to a complex, developed socioeconomic landscape exposed to storm surges associated with hurricanes. Indicators of social vulnerability to this hazard are developed and a principal components analysis is performed on proxies for these indicators. Overall social vulnerability is calculated by applying Pareto ranking to these principal components. The paper concludes that it is possible to construct an effective index of vulnerability without weighting the individual vulnerability indicators.     

A Method for Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change in Siberian Forests: Example of Larch Area

The conceptual scheme of integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change in Siberian forests is elaborated and applied to the extensive area in Siberia covered by Larch forests. Forest stakeholders on the provincial level are identified to be the most relevant for an integrated impact assessment. Organisation of the assessment study as a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches is suggested. Major biophysical vulnerability indexes and regional syndromes are identified as the growing stock and current increment averaged by administrative unit. Models and data suitability and quality for an analysis of biophysical vulnerability in conditions of climate change are studied for Siberian forests and future development trends are identified. An application of the elaborated conceptual scheme, which employs two models of different type and forest inventory data, is presented for the Larch area.     

Rural vulnerability to environmental change in the irrigated lowlands of Central Asia and options for policy-makers: A review

Climate change, land degradation and drought affect millions of people living in drylands worldwide. With its food security depending almost entirely on irrigated agriculture, Central Asia is one of the arid regions highly vulnerable to water scarcity. Previous research of land and water use in the region has focused on improving water-use efficiency, soil management and identifying technical, institutional and agricultural innovations. However, vulnerability to climate change has rarely been considered, in spite of the imminent risks due to a higher-than-average warming perspective and the predicted melting of glaciers, which will greatly affect the availability of irrigation water. Using the Khorezm region in the irrigated lowlands of northwest Uzbekistan as an example, we identify the local patterns of vulnerability to climate variability and extremes. We look at on-going environmental degradation, water-use inefficiency, and barriers to climate change adaptation and mitigation, and based on an extensive review of research evidence from the region, we present concrete examples of initiatives for building resilience and improving climate risk management. These include improving water use efficiency and changing the cropping patterns that have a high potential to decrease the exposure and sensitivity of rural communities to climate risks. In addition, changes in land use such as the afforestation of degraded croplands, and introducing resource-smart cultivation practices such as conservation agriculture, may strengthen the capacity of farmers and institutions to respond to climate challenges. As these can be out-scaled to similar environments, i.e. the irrigated cotton and wheat growing lowland regions in Central Asia and the Caucasus, these findings may be relevant for regions beyond the immediate geographic area from which it draws its examples.     

A proposed Multi Criteria Analysis decision support tool for international environmental policy issues: a pilot application to emissions control in the international aviation sector

Policy making at the level of international environmental problems appears to lack a transparent, multi criteria based, decision support ‘tool’. This is due mainly to the highly political, volatile, and contextual nature of issues at this level. The environmental problem of how to regulate emissions from international civil aviation due to their transboundary nature, and the participation of international and domestic players, makes it a ‘wicked’ international environmental problem where policy making has proved problematic. This problem has been used as the basis for developing and pilot testing a tool for contributing to international policymaking, the Multi Criteria Decision Support System (MCDSS). This tool is based on simplifying and integrating key components of Multi Criteria Analysis with a Decision Support System. A preliminary application of the tool explored three options for progressing the reduction of aviation emissions. Testing was based on the allocation of weights to environmental, social, economic and institutional categories, which were each then internally weighted to reflect key criteria in the policy process. Finally, likely performances of each option, against the criteria, were evaluated against Likert scale measures. The outputs from each of these steps were combined to generate a summed best policy option. Conclusions have been drawn and they indicate that the tool is potentially useful especially in the initial stages of policy development. The MCDSS is not an alternative to the international policy process, but rather complements, and makes explicit key tradeoffs in, that process.