International inequality in CO2 emissions: A new factorial decomposition based on Kaya factors

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of inequality in the global distribution of CO₂ emissions across the regions considered by the International Energy Agency during the period 1990–2010. The inequality analysis is carried out using a factorial decomposition of the second Theil index of inequality. Specifically, based on Kaya factors, CO₂ emissions by active population are decomposed into four factors: carbon intensity of electricity production, electricity intensity of GDP, economic growth in terms of labour productivity and employment rate. The results show that global inequality in CO₂ emissions by active population declined by 22 percent between 1990 and 2010, where the economic growth in terms of labour productivity is the main item responsible for the whole inequality value. Then, a second decomposition by multiplying factors for analyzing the within- and the between-group inequality components is described. In relation to the study of inequality by population groups, it was found that the within-group inequality component had been the main contributor to the whole inequality during all the period. Finally, some economic policy implications are discussed.     

中国流通业CO2排放的因素分解和脱钩分析

参照IPCC清单中的方法估算了2000~2012年中国流通业CO2排放量;运用LMDI方法分解分析了研究期间流通业CO2排放变化的影响因素;并基于DPSIR框架构建流通业脱钩努力指数模型测度了流通业CO2排放脱钩效应.结果表明:2000~2012年间,流通业CO2排放量增长明显,期间累计排放总量为692482.37万t;产业规模效应是CO2排放增量的主要因素,能源强度效应是CO2排放减量的主要因素,分别引起CO2排放量增加了67435.72万t和减少了12358.67万t,能源结构和排放因子效应对CO2排放影响有限,分别引起CO2排放量增加了519.89万t和减少了2590.94万t;流通业CO2排放脱钩状态呈“弱脱钩—未脱钩—弱脱钩—未脱钩”的变化特征,脱钩努力指数值呈“ ”型变化趋势;目前能源强度是决定流通业CO2排放脱钩状态的关键因素,但随着能源强度的下降幅度越来越小,未来更需要通过调整能源结构和降低排放因子来实现流通业CO2排放脱钩.     

A comparative analysis between composite indexes of environmental performance: An analysis on the CIEP and EPI

The measurement of environmental impact through composite indexes provides information about the effects of human activities on the ecosystem. Over recent years proposals regarding the environmental composite indexes (ECI) have emerged, suggesting that they can be used to help in decisions about public policies. Due the number of these indicators, issues arise about the asymmetry of information provided, although all ECI seek to measure ecosystem quality or damage. The present paper compares the Composite Index of Environmental Performance (CIEP) (García-Sánchez et al., 2015) and the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) (Hsu et al., 2014) in order to find convergent and divergent characteristics, studying methodological aspects and empirical evidence through statistical analysis, in order to favour the decision-making by stakeholders and to improve the existing ECI in order to determine adequately the environmental impact. The results show that the indexes were developed using different methods and variables, however, they share around 20% identical variables. Despite these differences, the rate of variation in ranking countries between the indexes is 21%, on average. The EPI policy category ‘water & sanitation (effects on humans)’ has two common variables and explains part of the CIEP performance. The effect dimension of the CIEP has one more identical variable and it reduces the individual variation between rank positions.     

中国温室气体排放增长的结构分解分析

利用结构分解分析(SDA)的加权平均分解法分析了4类增长因素对1992~2007年中国温室气体排放变化的影响.结果表明:总体上,最终需求规模扩大是引起排放增长的主要因素,其次是投入产出结构的改变,温室气体排放强度降低是减缓排放量的主要因素,最终需求结构改变对排放量变化的影响不明显.从部门角度看,建筑业和机械、电气、电子设备制造业是隐含温室气体排放增加的主要来源.从变化趋势看,2002~2007年温室气体排放增幅明显高于其他时期,出口和固定资本形成的大幅增长是推动这一时期排放增长的主要原因.     

2020年中国发电行业碳减排目标规划相符性分析

基于发电行业节能减排技术的现有应用规划,预测3种不同的GDP增长情景,即减速发展,基准情景和高速发展情景下,若能实现我国现有关于发电行业节能减排技术的规划目标,2020年发电行业的CO2排放量将达到35.32,39.15,43.20亿t.同时基于中国2020年碳强度减排承诺,计算得国家2020年CO2排放目标在不同发展情景下将达到97.30~127.96亿t不等.结合上述结果讨论,发电行业规划目标相符要求2020年的CO2排放比例为33.27%~36.82%.结果表明,若能实现我国现有关于发电行业节能减排技术的规划目标,则对应于不同的GDP增长速度,发电行业总碳排放量能够完成国家承诺碳强度减排的分解目标.     

Legitimacy of local REDD+ processes. A comparative analysis of pilot projects in Brazil and Tanzania

This paper compares the legitimacy of pilot projects in Kilosa and Kondoa districts of Tanzania and the Amazon region in Brazil. The analysis is both normative – i.e., based on external criteria – and sociological – i.e., based on local people’s perceptions. Results show that the quality of decision-making in terms of local participation, balanced representation, openness and sufficient information increases local acceptability of REDD+. The research also suggests that power asymmetries may undermine legitimacy if not dealt with. Finally, the paper reveals that legitimacy outcomes differ under various contexts, which calls for REDD+ processes to be flexible.     

闽三角地区碳排放时空差异及影响因素研究

以闽三角地区为研究对象,以2005~2017年为研究期,构建城市尺度的碳排放清单,应用对数平均迪氏指数分解方法从时间维度的纵向比较和典型年份城市横向比较两个维度开展了驱动因素的分解分析及评价,探讨了闽三角碳排放变化影响因素的时空差异.结果显示：研究期内闽三角CO₂排放增长较快,从2005年的74.08Mt增加到2017年169.48Mt,增幅为128.75%.其中,泉州贡献最大,占比为67.93%.碳排放变化趋势分析来看,产业结构和经济增长为导致闽三角地区碳排放量增长的主要因素,累计贡献度分别为30.38%和12.21%,能源结构为抑制碳排放的重要影响因素,累计贡献度为-45.76%.时空差异上看,能源结构效应在研究期内均表现为抑制效应,最大贡献率为52.95%;而产业结构效应均表现为促进效应,最大贡献率为33.85%.在研究期内,漳州市碳减排力度最大,最大净减排148.27Mt.而泉州市经济增长和产业结构效应贡献率较大,未来仍具有较大的减排空间.厦门市经济增长和产业结构效应贡献率均低于参考值,且在研究期内变动幅度较小,碳减排压力较低.研究结果深化了闽三角地区碳排放的时空格局及影响因素的科学认识,为闽三角地区及相似城市群的减排治理提供了有益借鉴.     

我国人为源气态活性氮排放时空变动特征分析

随着粮食和能源需求的增加,农业生产和化石燃料燃烧带来的活性氮污染越来越成为影响我国环境和人民健康的重要因素之一.通过对2000、2005及2010年全国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的人为源气态活性氮排放总量、单位GDP及单位人均排放量的Moran's I指数和GetisOrd G*i指数进行空间分析,探讨了气态活性氮排放及其强度的时空变动特征.结果表明,全国的气态活性氮排放及其强度呈现明显的空间集聚特征.在空间分布特征上,全国活性氮排放表现为高值集聚分布,其热点主要位于华北平原和长江中下游平原地区;排放强度方面则为高值聚集和低值聚集兼备.通过对3个年份的冷热点比较分析发现,排放强度的冷点地区变化较小,热点地区变化较大.其中,单位GDP排放强度方面,冷点地区处于东南沿海地区,热点地区则由西北地区缩小到四川、甘肃两省;而单位人口排放强度方面,冷点地区范围有所缩减,热点地区则由分散转变为集中分布于京津冀及周边的山西、内蒙古和辽宁等.分析人为源气态活性氮时空分布格局和特征及其形成原因,可为评估和减缓气态活性氮排放对生态环境的影响提供科学基础.     

雨源型城市河流水污染特征及水质联合评价:以深圳龙岗河为例

雨源型城市河流水环境容量小,易受污染,识别河流水质的主要污染特征并进行科学地水质联合评价是水环境治理的重要工作. 2018年,选取典型雨源型城市河流深圳龙岗河的12个监测位点进行水质监测,按照《地表水环境质量标准GB 3838-2002》对22个水质指标进行分析,采用单因子评价法、综合污染指数法和主成分分析法对龙岗河水质进行综合评价.单因子评价结果显示,龙岗河所有位点均达到地表水Ⅴ类水质标准及以上,其中田脚水和龙西河分别达到地表水Ⅳ类和Ⅲ类水质标准;综合污染指数评价结果显示,所有位点水质状况均为清洁或较清洁;综合污染指数法和主成分综合得分均显示,所有位点中龙西河、南约河和田脚水的水质最好,梧桐山河、大康河、爱联河、丁山河和黄沙河还有较大的提升空间,且需要着重考虑营养盐（TN、 TP和NH⁺₄-N）、有机物（COD和BOD₅）、粪大肠菌群和阴离子表面活性剂等指标. 3种评价结果存在差异,但均能从定性和定量的不同角度反映河流水质状况,因此综合采用多种评价方法能更好地反映雨源型城市河流的水质特征.     

模糊标识指数与对应分析法在水质评价中的联合应用

水质评价对判断水体的污染状况,了解其污染程度和成因有重要的意义,并可为水资源管理及水污染控制提供科学依据,而适当的评价方法是保证评价结果科学合理的关键.因此,本文以青山湖流域为例,在单因子指数法、综合指数法、灰色关联法、改进的模糊层次分析法、水质指数评价法、综合水质标识指数法6种常用水质评价法的结果对比分析的基础上,提出了一种新的模糊标识指数法.该方法结合了改进的模糊层次分析法和综合水质标识法的优点,不仅给出水质级别和水功能区达标程度,而且克服了以往模糊层次分析法存在的低估污染的严重性及不能评价劣Ⅴ类水质的缺点,更加适用于水质状况的评价.同时,在模糊标准化处理基础上,采用对应分析法,将采样点与变量有机地结合起来进行分析.结果表明,青山湖流域的总体水质状况以劣Ⅴ类为主,总体水功能区达标率仅10.34%,流域根据受污染情况被分为3个区,Ⅰ区、Ⅱ区、Ⅲ区的主要污染因子分别是TN、NH4+-N与COD、TP.模糊标识指数法与对应分析法的联合应用可以全面分析流域水质状况,给出科学合理的评价结果.     

Two-step accelerated mineral carbonation and decomposition analysis for the reduction of CO2 emission in the eco-industrial parks

Carbon dioxide（CO2） emissions are a leading contributor to the negative effects of global warming. Globally, research has focused on effective means of reducing and mitigating CO2 emissions. In this study, we examined the efficacy of eco-industrial parks（EIPs） and accelerated mineral carbonation techniques in reducing CO2 emissions in South Korea.First, we used Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI） analysis to determine the trends in carbon production and mitigation at the existing EIPs. We found that, although CO2 was generated as byproducts and wastes of production at these EIPs, improved energy intensity effects occurred at all EIPs, and we strongly believe that EIPs are a strong alternative to traditional industrial complexes for reducing net carbon emissions. We also examined the optimal conditions for using accelerated mineral carbonation to dispose of hazardous fly ash produced through the incineration of municipal solid wastes at these EIPs. We determined that this technique most efficiently sequestered CO2 when micro-bubbling, low flow rate inlet gas, and ammonia additives were employed.     

浙江省都市区碳排放时空演变及其影响因素

都市区建设促进城镇协同发展,对碳排放产生了影响,因此研究都市区建设与碳排放的关系,有助于探索减排的有效途径。基于浙江省各县市区2010—2018年间土地利用、能源消费等数据,测算碳排放量;利用空间自相关方法和空间计量回归模型,探讨四大都市区碳排放的时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）杭州都市区是浙江省最大的碳排放都市区,其次是宁波、温州和金义都市区。（2）碳排放在空间上具有明显的集聚特征。不同都市区碳排放的时空演变特征具有显著的差异性。（3）都市区建设有助于各城镇的协同作用,促进资源的高效配置和利用,进而降低碳排放。（4）都市区碳排放的影响因素和驱动机制受到都市区发展阶段和特色影响,形成不同的空间特征。（5）都市区低碳建设任务和方案是由其独特的碳排放驱动机制和时空演变特征决定的。     

不同地区经济增长与环境污染关系的VAR模型分析——基于广州、佛山、肇庆经济圈的实证研究

利用向量自回归(VAR)计量技术对广州.佛山一肇庆(简称"广佛肇")经济圈各城市表征环境污染的指标(工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量和工业固废产生量)和表征经济增长的指标(人均GDP)的时序数据进行脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解分析,研究处于工业化后期的广州、佛山市及工业化前期的肇庆市经济发展与环境污染在时序维度上的关系及其...     

基于多准则分析的非点源污染评价和分区——以北京怀柔区北宅小流域为例

非点源污染控制难度大、成本高,因此有必要对污染源划分等级,从而分别进行管理与规划.本研究提出了“风险评价-规划分区-分别管理”的非点源污染规划思路.“风险评价”在借鉴已有的非点源风险评价模型基础上,提出了基于多准则分析的非点源污染评价方法.该评价方法以土地利用因子、径流因子和距离因子为参评指标,采用改进的理想解法(Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)确定因子权重,减少了人为主观性;“规划分区”依据“适度保护、优先规划、重点管理”的原则,结合风险评价结果,可将流域划分为5类管理分区;“分别管理”是对各类管理区分别配以针对性的BMPs和生态工程措施.“风险评价-规划分区-分别管理”这套方法层层递进不仅能评价流域非点源污染,也能定量为流域内非点源污染源的管理提供科学方案.最后将该方法在北宅小流域进行了应用,结果表明,该方法克服了传统方法的过于主观、局限性大的缺陷,可为类似流域非点源污染评价和管理提供参考.     

Exploration of relationships between phytoplankton biomass and related environmental variables using multivariate statistic analysis in a eutrophic shallow lake： A S-year study

Understanding the process of the changing phytoplankton patterns can be particularly useful in water quality improvement and management decisions. However, it is generally not easy to illustrate the interactions between phytoplankton biomass and related environmental variables given their high spatial and temporal heterogeneity. To elucidate relationships between them, in a eutrophic shallow lake, Taihu Lake, relative long-term data set of biotic and abiotic parameters of water quality in the lake were conducted using multivariate statistical analysis within seasonal periodicity. The results indicate that water temperature and total phosphorus （TP） played governing roles in phytoplankton dynamics in most seasons （i.e. temperature in winter, spring and summer; TP in spring, summer and autumn）; COD （chemical oxygen demand） and BOD （biological oxygen demand） presented significant positive relationships with phytoplankton biomass in spring, summer and autumn. However, a complex interplay was found between phytoplankton biomass and nitrogen considering significant positive relationships occurring between them in spring and autumn, and conversely negative ones in summer. As the predatory factor, zooplankton presented significant grazing-pressure on phytoplankton biomass during summer in view of negative relationship between them in the season. Significant feedback effects of phytoplankton development were identified in summer and autumn in view that significant relationships were obser,qed between phytoplankton biomass and pH, Trans （transparency of water） and DO. The results indicate that interactions between phyto：plankton biomass and related environmental variables are highly sensitive to seasonal periodicity, which improves understanding of different roles of biotic and abiotic variables upon phytoplankton variability, and hence, advances management methods for eutrophic lakes.     

城乡交错区农田土壤重金属总量及形态空间分布特征与源分析--以河南省某市东郊城乡交错区为例

开展城乡交错区农田土壤重金属空间变异及其源解析研究,对于维护农田生态系统健康与合理进行土地利用规划具有重要意义.以河南省某市东郊城乡交错区为例,采用200 m×200 m网格布点法采集表层土壤样品共259个.用ICP-MS测定了土壤重金属(Cd、Zn、Pb、Cu、Cr和Ni)含量,基于Arcgis10.1采用IDW插值法分析研究区表层土壤重金属空间变异特征,并结合Tessier的形态提取法分析不同区域重金属的来源特征.结果表明:研究区表层土壤中重金属Cd、Zn、Pb与Cu的含量变异性较为显著,且明显高于对照区.空间分布上,在化工厂与排污河附近存在明显的高浓度区,污灌与化工厂等排污河水的侧渗是造成农田污染的首要原因,化工企业的降尘对农田污染起到了耦合效应;且在这些区域重金属Cd、Zn、Pb和Cu的非残余态含量较高,具有较高的活性和生物可利用性,存在较高的潜在健康风险.而本研究未发现火电厂周围和铁路两侧等农田土壤中有明显的重金属积累现象,且在这些样区重金属多以较稳定的形态存在,活性较低,存在较低的潜在健康风险.除工业源、交通源外,农业源中化肥的不同施用量对土壤中重金属的空间差异也产生了一定的影响.     

Exploration of relationships between phytoplankton biomass and related environmental variables using multivariate statistic analysis in a eutrophic shallow lake:A 5-year study

Understanding the process of the changing phytoplankton patterns can be particularly useful in water quality improvement and management decisions.However,it is generally not easy to illustrate the interactions between phytoplankton biomass and related environmental variables given their high spatial and temporal heterogeneity.To elucidate relationships between them,in a eutrophic shallow lake,Taihu Lake,relative long-term data set of biotic and abiotic parameters of water quality in the lake were conducted using multivariate statistical analysis within seasonal periodicity.The results indicate that water temperature and total phosphorus(TP)played governing roles in phytoplankton dynamics in most seasons(i.e.temperature in winter,spring and summer; TP in spring,summer and autumn); COD(chemical oxygen demand)and BOD(biological oxygen demand)presented significant positive relationships with phytoplankton biomass in spring,summer and autumn.However,a complex interplay was found between phytoplankton biomass and nitrogen considering significant positive relationships occurring between them in spring and autumn,and conversely negative ones in summer.As the predatory factor,zooplankton presented significant grazing-pressure on phytoplankton biomass during summer in view of negative relationship between them in the season.Significant feedback effects of phytoplankton development were identified in summer and autumn in view that significant relationships were observed between phytoplankton biomass and pH,Trans(transparency of water)and DO.The results indicate that interactions between phytoplankton biomass and related environmental variables are highly sensitive to seasonal periodicity,which improves understanding of different roles of biotic and abiotic variables upon phytoplankton variability,and hence,advances management methods for eutrophic lakes.