环境污染责任保险地方试点政策创新与实践研究

本文在环境污染责任保险试点调研和数据分析的基础上,总结了近年来环境污染责任保险政策的实践发展趋势,发现环境污染责任保险政策具有趋于强制、投保范围明确且趋同、产品性价比提升、保险市场受政策影响波动大的显著特点,地方试点实践中面临缺少环境风险定价方案、事故预防难开展、政府部门权责不清及数据信息共享缺乏的现实困境;同时在分析环境污染责任保险贵州新一轮试点对环境污染责任保险试点困境的实践突破基础上,总结统一条款、统一风险定价、统一投承保平台的"贵州模式"。基于以上分析本文提出如下建议:进一步明确环境污染责任保险强制的上位法依据,建立全国统一的环境污染强制责任保险管理制度;根据环境风险形成全过程理论,采用"两步走"方式,平衡科学性与成本关系,建立保前风险评估—保后隐患排查标准体系;建立国家—省级—地市多层级多主体环境污染责任保险治理信息化平台。     

Insuring Southeast Asian commercial forests: Fire risk analysis and the potential for use of data in risk pricing and reduction of forest fire risk

The author uses his own data gleaned from over 10 years of commercial forestry insurance across the world to propose that despite a low intrinsic fire risk across most of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, commercial fire losses are unacceptably high, and could be reduced substantially within the current financial legal and political framework within which forestry companies operate. Opening with a statement about the dearth of forest fire loss data in the commercial sector, it is observed that the consequent inability of general insurers to estimate the rate of fire loss leads to very low insurance participation in forestry within Indonesia. A summary is then provided of the financial and environmental benefits of insurance participation in commercial forestry were this situation to be changed. A short discussion on risk perceptions is introduced to make the point that without reliable commercial forest fire loss data, risk perceptions of fire exposure in Southeast Asia by the financial sector, including insurers, is a barrier to risk transfer and investment. While real fire risk and perceived fire risk for Indonesia seem at present to be in agreement, the paper challenges that this should the case. Comparisons are made with different parts of the world with the knowledge that, in commercial terms, plantations in the low latitudes behave similarly everywhere in terms of fire causes, fire propagation factors, and characteristics of plantation or managed mixed forest fires. A review of the fire sizes within commercial forests is a good indicator of the efficiency of fire management strategies, and profiles from a high fire risk territory and Indonesia are compared. Using commercial and unidentified data the author then demonstrates that commercial growers in Indonesia have a high annual rate of forest fire loss and may also have a significant catastrophe fire exposure. This ‘cat’ exposure is far greater than for equivalent plantations in clearly higher fire risk environments. These conclusions are and should be discussed with forestry companies to change attitude and investment levels. Practical points for improved plantation fire management are made along with comments about the resources required. A parallel discussion then reviews fire risk assessment and management by the insurers to prevent their own ‘forest fire’ losses if they are to get further involved with the provision of Indonesian commercial forest risk transfer. The explanation of how insurers price risk within a portfolio helps identify the specific data needed for a proper risk management strategy to be developed.     

A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures: a case study of current and future risk-based flood insurance premiums in Europe

Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.     

济源市平原区农田重金属污染特征及综合风险评估

铅锌冶炼区农田重金属污染问题受到广泛关注.本研究通过区域调查和空间分析明确济源市东部平原区农田土壤-小麦重金属污染特征,应用富集因子、潜在生态风险指数法和Monte Carlo模拟方法评估区域土壤重金属生态风险以及小麦Cd和Pb健康风险.结果表明：土壤Cd、Pb、Cu和Zn平均含量分别为1.51、97.1、29.0和79.5 mg·kg^-1,均高于河南省土壤元素背景值.其中74.2%和10.8%的样点Cd、Pb含量分别超过农田土壤风险筛选值,61.3%和40.9%的样点小麦Cd、Pb含量分别超过国家食品安全限量标准.富集因子研究结果表明土壤Cd污染程度最高.高风险区主要分布在西南部、西北部和中东部以铅锌冶炼为主的工业区.健康风险评估结果显示研究区小麦Cd非致癌风险和致癌风险高于国际推荐安全值的概率分别高达27.5%和100%.济源市小麦田Cd、Pb累积显著,需引起当地有关部门足够关注.空间分析与风险评价结果相结合,可以有效辨识高风险区域,进而为研究区污染防治和管控提供理论依据.     

Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

Parameterizing soil and weather inputs for crop simulation models using the VEMAP database

Soil and weather data are critical for the operation of crop simulation models. However, in many cases they are not readily available, especially applications at a regional or larger spatial scale. The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) provides massive quantities of geo-referenced soil and weather data variables on a half-degree latitude–longitude grid covering the conterminous USA. The VEMAP data were derived from a range of products and analyses, including ground observations, cluster analyses, kriging interpolation, and data assimilation. The objective of this study was to convert the soil and daily weather data of VEMAP into a format that can be used in the popular modeling software Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). Users can select appropriate soil or daily weather information for the area of interest. The conversion of the VEMAP data resulted in 5927 unique soil profiles and 3261 unique weather station files that encompass daily data from 1895 to 1993. To demonstrate the utility of this database in DSSAT, one representative county of the state of Georgia, USA was selected and a soybean simulation model was employed to simulate final yield using the extracted soil and daily weather data for the normal year (1961–1990). Meanwhile, the extracted daily weather data were compared with ground station observations from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (COOP). The paired t-test showed that no significant differences were found between the daily weather data and between simulated yields based on VEMAP and COOP weather data for the selected location. The outcome of this research showed that the VEMAP data can be used for crop model applications. However, further research is needed to assess the accuracy of the datasets for a variety of crops at a regional or national scale.     

C-Lock (Patent Pending): A System for Estimating and Certifying Carbon Emission Reduction Credits for the Sequestration of Soil Carbon on Agricultural Land

The C-Lock system was developed to address the need for an improved method of quantifying and certifying project-level carbon emission reduction credits (CERC). It was designed to enable individual landowners to efficiently quantify, certify, pool, market and trade CERCs generated by agricultural management practices. We provide a general overview of the C-Lock system as it has been implemented for the USA State of South Dakota. C-Lock is comprised of four linked components: a web interface, a client database, a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of soil, climate and generalized land use history parameters, and the CENTURY soil carbon model. The user-friendly interface elicits generalized land-use and crop history information from the client from 1900 through 1989, then explicit annual information from 1990 onward. A climate-zone level landuse and crop management database is used to fill in gaps in the client-provided data. These data are used to drive the CENTURY model, which estimates annual changes in soil carbon stocks. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate uncertainty bounds, and these are applied to the CENTURY outputs in order to provide probabilistic estimates of accrued CERCs in a manner that is transparent and verifiable. In a demonstration application, CERCs are estimated for three different land-use scenarios on a representative field in eastern South Dakota: reduced tillage or conservation (no-till) management of a corn (maize)/wheat/soybean rotation, and enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program, which entails establishing permanent grass cover. The credits are based on a business-asusual scenario of conventional tillage.     

Crops,cows or timber? Including carbon values in land use choices

Farm forestry is a very minor land use in the inland agricultural landscapes of Australia. The Australian Government intends to introduce a program to encourage landholders to trade the carbon sequestration value of plantations and this may change the relative profitability of plantations against other agricultural land uses. This research compares the returns from a timber and ‘carbon’ plantation, with those from grazing and a common crop rotation in the Kingaroy area of Queensland.Typical production patterns for all systems were developed from producer and expert knowledge and soil and vegetation sampling were used to estimate sequestration rates. The costs and benefits of all land use systems were converted into monetary terms and discounted to produce net present values. With a standard discount rate and average commodity prices based on recent history, cultivation is the most profitable option, followed by pasture and plantations. After the inclusion of carbon, plantations are the most profitable option, followed by pasture and cultivation. A number of qualifications of these findings are also discussed.     

Modelling impacts of alternative farming management practices on greenhouse gas emissions from a winter wheat–maize rotation system in China

Agricultural production plays an important role in affecting atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Field measurements were conducted in Quzhou County, Hebei Province in the North China Plains to quantify carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from a winter wheat–maize rotation field, a common cropping system across the Chinese agricultural regions. The observed flux data in conjunction with the local climate, soil and management information were utilized to test a process-based model, Denitrification–Decomposition or DNDC, for its applicability for the cropping system. The validated DNDC was then used for predicting impacts of three management alternatives (i.e., no-till, increased crop residue incorporation and reduced fertilizer application rate) on CO₂ and N₂O emissions from the target field. Results from the simulations indicated that (1) CO₂ emissions were significantly affected by temperature, initial SOC, tillage method, and quantity and quality of the organic matter added in the soils; (2) increases in temperature, initial SOC, total fertilizer N input, and manure amendment substantially increased N₂O emissions; and (3) temperature, initial SOC, tillage, and quantity and quality of the organic matter added in the soil all had significant effects on global warming. Finally, five 50-year scenarios were simulated with DNDC to predict their long-term impacts on crop yield, soil C dynamics, nitrate leaching losses, and N₂O emissions. The modelled results suggested that implementation of manure amendment or crop residue incorporation instead of increased fertilizer application rates would more efficiently mitigate GHG emissions from the tested agro-ecosystem. The multi-impacts provided a sound basis for comprehensive assessments on the management alternatives.     

‘Tolerable’ hillslope soil erosion rates in Australia: Linking science and policy

This paper reviews water-borne soil erosion in Australia in the context of current environmental policy needs. Sustainability has emerged as a central tenet of environmental policy in Australia and water-borne hillslope soil erosion rates are used as one of the indicators of agricultural sustainability in State of the Environment reporting. We review attempts to quantify hillslope erosion rates over Australia and we identify areas at risk of exceeding natural baseline rates. We also review historical definitions of sustainable, or ‘tolerable’ erosion rates, and how to set these rates. There are many ways to estimate hillslope erosion and these can create confusing results. Moreover their application for land management purposes requires nuanced interpretations that ultimately depend on the desired objective of decision-makers. Soil is the earth surficial material that serves as a medium for plant growth and the notion of tolerable soil erosion arose historically to assess the impact of soil loss on agricultural uses. However now that the impact of erosion on aquatic ecosystems been recognized as a major concern for Australia, the concept of tolerable erosion needs to be revised. Here we discuss three definitions of tolerable soil erosion, following recent literature. We derive estimates of long-term agricultural sustainability based on natural soil production rates and discuss this in relation to other defined land-management objectives such as aquatic ecosystem health. We conclude that the desired objectives of land managers must be clearly articulated before questions of ‘where to invest to control erosion’ and ‘how to assess return-on-investment’ can be answered.     

定量遥感支持下的红壤丘陵区土壤侵蚀敏感性评价——以长沙市为例

定量遥感技术的发展为研究区域生态环境敏感性提供了有效的手段.针对红壤丘陵区这一典型的脆弱生态系统,在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,建立了红壤丘陵区土壤侵蚀敏感性评价信息系统.根据RUSLE方程中的4个自然条件因子对土壤侵蚀敏感性的影响,建立红壤丘陵区土壤侵蚀敏感性定量评价指标体系,并对长沙这一典型红壤丘陵区的土壤侵蚀敏感性进行评价.通过解译Lan出at TM/ETM 影像数据获得长沙市土壤侵蚀敏感性评价的K因子、C因子分布图;利用ARCGIS数字化和空间分析得到R因子以及地形起伏度分布(LS因子).通过主成分分析法确定各评价因子的权重;最后通过加权叠加法获得长沙市土壤敏感性评价结果.研究结果表明,高度敏感以上面积2618km2,占全市面积的20.3%,中度敏感面积4404km2,占全市面积的37.2%,轻度以下敏感面积5073km2,占全市面积的42.5%,这说明长沙市土壤侵蚀敏感性较高.     

基于地理回归的农作物播种面积统计数据空间化方法

农作物空间格局反映了农作物种植结构和特征,是了解生产资源利用状况及进行农业结构调整的重要依据。研究旨在探索农作物播种面积统计数据空间化的方法,实现对历史农业统计数据的空间化表达。将传统的农业统计调查与先进的遥感技术、空间地理信息技术相结合,通过多元Logistic回归分析农作物格局与自然地理因素和社会经济因素之间的关系,构建农作物空间适宜性分布概率,在此基础上将农作物播种面积统计数据利用空间迭代分配方法,实现统计数据空间化的研究。论文选取中国东北三省作为方法研究区,实现了对该地区2000—2010年农作物播种面积空间化表达,经检验,该方法对东北三省水稻空间化精度为0.76,能够较好地完成农作物时空播种面积统计数据空间化工作。该方法是农作物调查和遥感时空格局解译研究的有效补充,为丰富农作物空间数据提供了技术手段。     

基于近地多光谱和OLI影像的黄河三角洲冬小麦种植区盐分估算及遥感反演——以山东省垦利县和无棣县为例

黄河三角洲是我国重要的后备土地资源区,而土壤盐渍化对该区的农业生产影响巨大,因此,及时获取该区农作物种植区土壤盐分含量及其分布具有重要意义。论文利用ADC便携式多光谱相机和EC110便携式盐分计,采集该区近地多光谱相片和土壤表层含盐量数据,结合两期遥感影像提取黄河三角洲冬小麦种植区面积分布,构建基于近地多光谱植被指数的土壤含盐量估算模型,进而将模型拟合反演到黄河三角洲OLI影像,得到黄河三角洲冬小麦种植区土壤盐分含量空间分布图,对麦区土壤盐分状况进行了分析。结果显示,土壤含盐量最佳估算模型为以SAVI为因变量的线性模型（Y=-0.754x+0.870,n=80）,估测R²为0.747,精度达到81.44%;研究区冬小麦分布由西南部内陆至东北部沿海呈明显递减的空间趋势;麦田土壤盐分含量主要集中在1.5~3.0 g/kg之间,占种植总面积的76.90%,而含盐大于3.0 g/kg的麦田占14.09%,宜采取针对性栽培管理措施。该研究探索了基于近地多光谱数据和OLI影像的土壤含盐量估算方法,为黄河三角洲麦田管理和土壤盐分含量估算提供了快速有效的技术手段。     

Soil loss due to harvesting of various crop types in contrasting agro-ecological environments

Soil erosion studies on cropland usually only consider water, wind and tillage erosion. However, significant amounts of soil are also lost from the field during the harvest of crops such as sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), chicory roots (Cichorium intybus L.), cassava (Manihot spp.) and sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas (L.) Lam). During the harvest soil adhering to the crop, loose soil or soil clods and rock fragments are exported from the field together with these crops.This soil erosion process is referred to as ‘soil losses due to crop harvesting’ (SLCH). Most of the studies investigated SLCH variability and its controlling factors for one crop type in similar agro-ecological environments and for comparable harvesting techniques. In this study, a compilation of SLCH studies was made in order to investigate the effect of crop type, agricultural systems, ecological conditions and harvesting technique on SLCH variability. SLCH rates ranged from few to tens of Mg ha⁻¹ harvest⁻¹ and SLCH was highly variable both in space and time. Comparison of four studies on SLCH for sugar beet revealed that harvesting technique and soil moisture content at harvesting time can be equally important for SLCH variability. The occurrence of soil clods harvested with the crop explained why SLCH was significantly larger for mechanically harvested potato in Belgium compared to manually harvested potato in China. SLCH values for manually harvested sugar beet, potato, cassava and sweet potato in China and Uganda were in general smaller than SLCH values for mechanically harvested sugar beet, potato and witloof chicory roots measured in Belgium and France. However, SLCH may also vary significantly within Europe due to differences in harvesting techniques. Soil moisture content at harvesting time was besides harvesting technique one of the key factors controlling SLCH variability. There were no systematic differences in SLCH between crop types, although the soil–crop contact area–crop mass ratio could explain more than 40% of the means from several SLCH studies.     

Is there a commercially viable market for crop insurance in rural Bangladesh?

The study aims to assess the commercial viability of a potential crop insurance market in Bangladesh. In a large scale household survey, agricultural farm households were asked for their preferences for a hypothetical crop insurance scheme using double bounded (DB) contingent valuation (CV) method. Both revenue and production cost based indemnity payment approaches were applied to assess the commercial viability of a crop insurance program assuming a partner-agent (PA) model of insurance supply. Crop insurance is found marginally commercially viable in riverine flood plain areas. The expected indemnity payable consistently exceeds the expected insurance premium receivable by the insurer for the households living in wetland basin and coastal floodplain. We conclude that a uniform structure of crop insurance market does not exist in Bangladesh. The nature of the disaster risks faced by the farm households and the socio-economic characteristics of the rural farm communities need to be taken into careful consideration while designing such an insurance scheme.

How effective are broad-scale nutrient mass balances for determining the sustainability of lot-feed manure application?

Nutrient mass balances have been used to assess a variety of land resource scenarios, at various scales. They are widely used as a simple basis for policy, planning, and regulatory decisions but it is not clear how accurately they reflect reality. This study provides a critique of broad-scale nutrient mass balances, with particular application to the fertiliser use of beef lot-feeding manure in Queensland.Mass balances completed at the district and farm scale were found to misrepresent actual manure management behaviour and potentially the risk of nutrient contamination of water resources. The difficulties of handling stockpile manure and concerns about soil compaction mean that manure is spread thickly over a few paddocks at a time and not evenly across a whole farm. Consequently, higher nutrient loads were applied to a single paddock less frequently than annually. This resulted in years with excess nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium remaining in the soil profile. This conclusion was supported by evidence of significant nutrient movement in several of the soil profiles studied.Spreading manure is profitable, but maximum returns can be associated with increased risk of nutrient leaching relative to conventional inorganic fertiliser practices. Bio-economic simulations found this increased risk where manure was applied to supply crop nitrogen requirements (the practice of the case study farms, 200–5000 head lot-feeders).Thus, the use of broad-scale mass balances can be misleading because paddock management is spatially heterogeneous and this leads to increased local potential for nutrient loss. In response to the effect of spatial heterogeneity policy makers who intend to use mass balance techniques to estimate potential for nutrient contamination should apply these techniques conservatively.     

Spatial and long-term variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting and the importance relative to water erosion: A case study from Belgium

The harvest of crops such as sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), leek (Allium porrum L.) and carrot (Daucus carota L.) causes soil loss from arable land because soil adhering to the crop and soil clods that failed to be separated by the harvesting machine, are exported from the field together with these harvested crops. These soil losses can be of the same order of magnitude as soil losses caused by water erosion processes, but are often neglected in soil erosion research. In this article we developed a methodology to investigate the spatial and long-term (1846–2004) variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting (SLCH) in Belgium and the spatial distribution of the importance of SLCH relative to soil losses caused by water erosion processes in Flanders. The study is based on long-term time series of soil tare data of crop processing factories and area and crop yield statistics. Until the middle of the 20th century, potato and roots and tubers grown as second crop, had the largest share in the SLCH-crop growing area in Belgium. Sugar beet gained importance from the end of the 19th century onwards and has now, of all SLCH crops, the largest growing area. We could estimate that, partly due to increasing crop yields and the mechanisation of the harvesting process, SLCH per hectare of cropland increased from 0.4 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 1846 to 2.4 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the 1970s and early 1980s. Since then mean annual soil losses decreased again to 1.8 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 2004. It was assessed that total yearly SLCH in Belgium rose from more than 575,000 Mg in the middle of the 19th century to more than 1.7 × 10⁶ Mg in the 1970s and early 1980s, while current SLCH values are 1.4 × 10⁶ Mg. We estimated that since 1846, more than 163 × 10⁶ Mg soil was exported from cropland in Belgium through this erosion process, which corresponds to 109 hm³ or an average soil profile truncation of 1.15 cm. Average sediment export from cropland in Flanders was 3.7 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 2002, of which 46% was due to SLCH and 54% was due to water erosion processes. The relative importance of SLCH varied, depending on the agricultural region, between 38% and 94%.     

The impacts of land use policy on the soil erosion risk: a case study in central Belgium

Set-aside programs of the European government have a double impact on the regional soil erosion risk in agricultural regions: (1) there is less area susceptible to soil erosion and (2) fields with a high erosion rate are preferably taken out of production resulting in a decrease of the average erosion risk. In order to quantify this double effect an inquiry among farmers in central Belgium was set up to find out which fields are preferably taken out of production. A statistical analysis pointed out that fields with a weak slope gradient, a loamy topsoil and good soil drainage have a low probability of being taken out of production. The results of the questionnaire were used to construct a transition probability map representing for each field the probability that it will be taken out of production. These transition probabilities were used to simulate the decrease in regional erosion risk for different scenarios. The outcome of these simulations suggests that there is a negative power relation between the set-aside percentage and the regional soil erosion risk.     

土壤农用地膜微生物降解研究进展

地膜可保持土壤湿度,调节土壤温度及限制杂草生长从而促进农作物增产,在现代农业生产中具有不可或缺的作用.然而,地膜主要成分聚乙烯（PE）性质稳定,难以降解,极易在农田土壤中残留并积累.此外,地膜在生产过程中添加邻苯二甲酸酯类（PAEs）作为塑化剂,该类有机物极易在土壤和水体环境中积累和迁移,且生物毒性大,对生态环境、粮食安全和人体健康构成极大威胁.聚乙烯和邻苯二甲酸酯复合污染是土壤有机污染治理的重点和难点.因此,农用地膜污染土壤修复是环境科学研究的重要课题,亦是作物生产安全和人类健康的重要保障.微生物降解的生物修复较物理化学技术具有效率高、无二次污染、成本低、环境扰动小等优点,具有广泛应用前景.由此,本文综述农用地膜使用和土壤残留现状及其生物降解的研究进展,以期为地膜污染农田土壤的生物修复提供基础信息和技术参考.