Applying integrated assessment methodologies to air quality plans: Two European cases

Air pollution Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) can be used for determining how emissions should be reduced to improve air quality and to protect human health in a cost-efficient way. The application of IAM is also useful to spread information to the general public and to explain the effectiveness of proposed Air Quality Plans. In this paper, the application of the RIAT+ system to determine suitable abatement measures to improve the air quality at a regional/local level is presented for two European cases: the Brussels Capital Region (Belgium) and the Porto Urban Area (Portugal). Both regions are affected with PM10 or NO₂ concentrations that exceed the limit values specified by the European Union legislation. To properly assess air quality abatement measures a surrogate model was used, allowing the implementation of an efficient optimization procedure. This model is derived in both cases through a set of simulations performed using a Chemistry Transport Model fed with different emission reduction scenarios. In addition, internal costs (due to the implementation of emission reduction measures) and external costs (due to population exposure to air pollutant concentrations) of policy options were considered. The application of this integrated assessment modelling system in scenario (Brussels case) and optimization (Porto) modes contributes to identifying some advantages and limitations of these two approaches and also provides some guidance when urban air quality has to be assessed.     

A methodological framework for improving air quality monitoring network layout. Applications to environment management

This work aims to provide a methodology framework which allows to improve the performance and efficiency of an air quality monitoring network (AQMN). It requires to be constituted by a minimum and reliable number of measurement sites. Nevertheless, the AQMN efficiency should be assessed over time, as a consequence of the possible emergence of new emission sources of air pollutants, which could lead to variations on their spatial distribution within the target area. PM₁₀ particles data monitored by the Community of Madrid's (Spain) AQMN between 2008 and 2017 were used to develop a methodology to optimize the AQMN performance. The annual spatial distribution of average PM₁₀ levels over the studied period monitored by all current stations vs those more representative was provided by a geographic information system (GIS), and the percentage of similarity between both postulates was quantified using simple linear regression (> 95%). As one innovative tool of this study, the practical application of the proposed methodology was validated using PM₁₀ particles data measured by AQMN during 2007 and 2018, reaching a similitude degree higher than 95%. The influence of temporal variation on the proposed methodological framework was around 20%.The proposed methodology sets criteria for identifying non-redundant stations within AQMN, it is also able to appropriately assess the representativeness of fixed monitoring sites within an AQMN and it complements the guidelines set by European legislation on air pollutants monitoring at fixed stations, which could help to tackle efforts to improve the air quality management.     

环境空气质量改善导向的财政资金分配模型与实施机制

"十三五"时期改进环境空气质量是首要任务,如何充分发挥财政资金对地方环境质量改善的引导和激励功能。文章提出了基于环境空气质量导向的财政激励资金分配模型和实施机制,并以2014~2015年的城市PM监测数据2.5进行了案例分析,结果表明该分配模型和实施机制具有科学性和可操作性,可以为建立环境空气质量导向的财政机制提供管理技术支撑。     

气象条件对河北廊坊城市空气质量的影响

气象条件是影响大气污染的重要因子.利用2013年3月—2014年2月廊坊颗粒物质量浓度监测资料、自动气象站观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析资料,采用多种统计方法分析气象与污染的关系,量化天气形势和局地气象条件对城市颗粒物质量浓度变化的贡献.结果表明:天气形势是决定局地气象要素和城市空气质量的重要因子.当廊坊位于高压中心或高压后部时,大气层结稳定,易造成重污染;当廊坊位于高压前部(气压梯度较大)时,大气层结不稳定,易于污染物输送和扩散.利用客观天气分型结合污染物质量浓度统计分析方法,可以量化天气形势对城市空气质量的影响.在局地气象要素中,能见度与ρ(PM_2.5)、ρ(PM₁₀)相关性最高(相关系数分别为-0.75和-0.53,下同),其次依次为风速(-0.45和-0.31)、相对湿度(0.41和0.25)和温度(-0.15和-0.06).通过污染物浓度与局地风场关系分析发现,廊坊颗粒物质量浓度受天津市、河北省南部区域输送的影响明显,受北京区域输送的影响相对较弱.研究显示,气象条件可以解释廊坊ρ(PM_2.5)和ρ(PM₁₀)日均值变化的56%和49%,其在冬季对颗粒物质量浓度影响最为显著,春秋季次之,夏季影响最小.      

区域大气污染数值模拟方法研究

大气污染是一个区域性的环境污染问题,北京大气环境的质量与周边地区污染源的排放有密切关系.将气象模型高级区域预报系统(ARPS)与空气污染模型Models-3耦合进行模拟计算,从检验结果可以看出,模拟值与实测值有较好的一致性,表明该模式系统可以用来研究区域大气污染物传输及相互影响.模拟计算了2002年北京地区各季ρ(PM10)以及山西污染源对北京的贡献,结果表明,在特殊的天气条件下的典型时段,尤其是在西南风气流场控制下,山西污染源对北京空气质量有较大的影响.比较而言,夏季(8月)山西污染源的平均贡献率最大,约为15.44%;冬季(1月)最小,约为2.25%.表明控制北京大气污染不容忽视周边污染源的影响.      

Overview of current regional and local scale air quality modelling practices: Assessment and planning tools in the EU

The 2008 European Air Quality Directive (AQD) (2008/50/EC) encourages the use of models in combination with monitoring in a range of applications. It also requires Member States to design appropriate air quality plans for zones where the air quality does not comply with the AQD limit values. In order to cope with these various elements, a wide range of different modeling methods have been developed and applied by EU Member States in the last decade to assess the effects of local and regional emission abatement policy options on air quality and human health. However, an overall review of the methodologies that are used in different countries to compile local and regional air quality plans has not been performed so far. Such a review has been the objective of the APPRAISAL EU FP7 project with the main goal to identify methodologies and their limitations and to propose possible key areas to be addressed by research and innovation on the basis of this review. To fulfill these objectives, a structured online database of methodologies has been developed in collaboration with experts involved in the design of air quality plans (AQP). The current work relies on the APPRAISAL database which currently totals 59 contributions from 13 Member States. In this paper we summarize the outcome of the APPRAISAL project with respect to the review of current Integrated Assessment Modeling practices.     

区域空气质量监测网络优化布点方法研究

通过分析区域空气质量监测网络(RAQMN)优化布点的各种限制因素,利用空气质量模型模拟数据构建综合评价浓度,建立以最大贴近度为优化目标,以建设成本、地形、行政区域、人口布局和空间覆盖率等为约束条件的RAQMN优化布点方法.以珠江三角洲为案例背景,利用此方法分析了考虑常规污染物(SO2、NO2和PM10)、区域特征污染物(O3和PM2.5)和同时考虑包括常规、区域特征污染物等多种污染物组合3种情景下的RAQMN的优化布点.结果表明,该方法能够成功地应用于RAQMN的优化选址.与仅考虑常规污染物和仅考虑区域特征污染物的优化结果相比,同时考虑多种污染物优化结果的空间代表性更好,更能满足RAQMN的监测目标与优化布点的要求.     

Uncertainty evaluation in air quality planning decisions: a case study for Northern Italy

In recent years, evaluating the robustness of environmental models results has become essential in order to effectively support decision makers to define suitable emission control strategies. This evaluation is performed in literature through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Therefore, the application of such methodologies to air quality Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) is extremely challenging. In fact, in this case uncertainty and sensitivity analyses should be assessed not only for each single component of the system, but also for the overall IAM. In the paper, an attempt is made to extend and systematize the information available on uncertainty/sensitivity analysis, at first considering environmental models in general, and then focusing on air quality IAMs. The study aims to offer a tentative framework addressed to modelers and decision makers in the implementation of IAM and evaluation of its results. The framework has been tested on Lombardy region (Northern Italy). The results show how the uncertainty on Drivers of emissions propagates on the whole modelling chain characterizing an integrated assessment study.     

Air quality management in China: Issues, challenges, and options

This article analyzed the control progress and current status of air quality,identified the major air pollution issues and challenges in future,proposed the long-term air pollution control targets,and ...     

基于AERMOD模式的大气扩散参数方案比较研究

在美国法规空气质量模式AERMOD的框架下,比较了4种已被广泛应用的扩散参数化方案(基于边界层微气象要素的AERMOD湍流参数化方案,基于湍流观测资料和扩散函数的Tub-Obs方案,Briggs参数化方案,NEPA方案).分析了不同稳定度、不同扩散参数方案下的污染物SO2地表浓度差别.总体来说,在中性和不稳定条件下,4种方案模拟结果的差别不大;在稳定条件下, AERMOD方案的地面浓度明显低于Briggs和NEPA方案,可能是由于AERMOD方案不能很好地识别局地湍流的贡献.     

Air quality from a social perspective in four European metropolitan areas: Research hypothesis and evidence from the SEFIRA project

This paper analyses social constraints influencing air quality governance in four European Union (EU) countries. The comparative analysis carried out here is the outcome of the EU FP7 SEFIRA project. Starting from study of implemented measures the paper marks out the structure of double-delegation in policy-making for air quality governance; that is to say the delegation from the EU to national governments who further delegate to regional and local authorities the burden to put in place concrete measures. Therefore, our analysis has followed a multi-level approach considering all the territorial level down to the urban scale. In doing so, we found out commonalities in the strategies which have been followed by policy-makers. The comparison has been made possible through the analysis of operationalised categories such as Domain, Objectives and Modalities on air quality plans. The analysis went further: through interviews with selected key stakeholder the social constraints which may limit the choices made by institutions have been investigated. The -lack of- success in attaining EU requirements for the air quality cannot be considered only as the outcome of the −lack of- awareness of which may be the best practices or choices, rather as the result of complex entanglements of social forces. Indeed, one of the main outcomes of this explorative investigation has been the breakdown of such complexity into its social component in a comparative study. The paper finally points out the need to promote an integrated approach for air quality policy as a strategy for the design of new measures for the future.     

Air quality integrated assessment modelling in the context of EU policy: A way forward

In the EU-FP7 project APPRAISAL the current practice for integrated assessment modelling (IAM) of air quality in the EU was reviewed, limitations were identified and guidance for improvements was provided. In this article we present the guidance proposed by APPRAISAL. This guidance takes into account that a single IAM solution does not exist but that the different elements of the IAM methodology can be addressed in more or less detail taking into account the available data, the regional/local specificities, the financial resources and the actual purpose of the assessment.     

城市物质流分析框架及测算方法

在借鉴国家物质流分析(MFA)框架基础上,针对进出城市系统的物质数据缺乏且难以统计的特点,引入面向元素或产品的物质流分析(SFA)要素,建立了城市尺度物质流分析框架.与国家物质流分析相比,该框架总体结构和物质分类上相同,但输入量、净存量和输出量的计算顺序和假设条件不同.对于化石能源,可由城市统计年鉴中的能源平衡表直接得出本地开采量、净存量、调入量和调出量;对于生物质,本地开采(生产)量一般都有统计,净存量可通过假设人均消费量相对稳定估算得出,而调入量和调出量则需要对大宗工业用途进行调查并做少量假设计算得出;对于金属矿物及其产品、工业非金属矿物及其产品、建筑材料3类物质,本地开采量和消费量一般都有所统计,而调入量和调出量的计算则需要首先采用针对元素或成品的物质流分析来获取城市系统中的净存量,然后再配合生产和消费数据并做少量假设测算得出.其他项目的获取或测算同国家物质流分析,由此得到的城市物质流分析框架可以用于城市间物质代谢的比较.      

二次有机气溶胶估算方法研究进展

我国区域复合污染日趋严重,二次有机气溶胶(SOA)是细颗粒物PM2.5的重要组成之一.本研究总结了当前国内外定量估算SOA的主要方法,包括EC示踪法、WSOC法、受体模型法、示踪物产率法、数值模拟法等.通过对各种方法的原理介绍与比较,指出1)EC示踪法、WSOC法、受体模型法简单易行,与在线连续观测数据结合可估算高时间分辨率的SOA浓度,但受限于对当地源谱和特定物种的了解;2)示踪物产率法虽分析技术难度高,但可针对不同来源的SOA估算;3)数值模拟可获得大尺度SOA的空间分布.针对国内外的最新研究成果进行简单概述,不同方法的研究表明中国二次有机气溶胶是总有机气溶胶的重要部分,人为源VOCs对二次有机气溶胶发挥着重要贡献.本文旨在为未来我国二次有机气溶胶的研究提供基础信息和研究思路.     

Air Quality Action Plans: early indicators of urban local authority practice in England

The delivery of improved local ambient air quality in the UK has emerged through the implementation of the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland [DETR, Welsh Office, Scottish Office, Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland, The Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, CM 4548, London, The Stationery Office, 2000] by the air quality management (AQM) regime. Local authorities now have the responsibility to undertake a review and assessment of air quality in their area and to identify locations where health-based objectives are likely to be exceeded. If relevant public exposure exists, an air quality management area must be designated. Air Quality Action Plans (AQAPs) provide the mechanism by which local authorities, in collaboration with national agencies and others, will state their intentions for working towards the air quality objectives through the powers they have available and by collaboration with other bodies who are in the position of implementing solutions to their air quality hot spots. This management regime will require a new way of local authority working, involving not only local authority joint working but also regional collaboration and co-operation with outside agencies and authorities such as health authorities, regulators of industry and highways managers. Management aspects of the AQM process have been investigated through the data collection from a series of questionnaire surveys. It is argued that the extent to which a local authority is able to show integration of its air quality management responsibilities is an indicator of their capability for delivering AQAPs. Although local authorities appear to be making moves towards a more integrated approach to managing environmental issues, there are still significant gaps in joint working identified through questionnaire surveys and case studies undertaken by the authors. Some recommendations for the successful implementation of AQAPs are also included.     

上海地区通风指数的应用研究

利用2013—2014年上海地区的风廓线资料及NCEP再分析资料,计算研究了上海地区通风指数的变化情况,并结合实际天气情况和预报经验,对常用通风指数公式进行本地化修正.通过分析修正前后的通风指数与颗粒物浓度的关系发现,修正后通风指数的时间变化特征与PM_(2.5)浓度的时间变化有显著的负相关关系,且经过修正的通风指数对于PM_(2.5)浓度变化的指示意义更强;研究其在典型污染个例中的应用情况发现,修正后的通风指数低时,对应的PM_(2.5)浓度值高,说明修正后的通风指数能较好地反映出边界层内大气对污染物的扩散和输送作用;另外,与未修正的通风指数对比发现,修正后的通风指数降低了原通风指数的数值,对污染的指示意义更强,尤其表现在上海地区受冷空气影响时,修正后的通风指数较原通风指数降低明显,能更好地反映出大气对上游地区污染物的输送作用.由此可见,经过修正后的通风指数更适用于本地化的预报服务,这也为上海地区的空气质量预报和霾预报提供了一个新的参考指标.     

Temporal and spatial variations of air pollution across China from 2015 to 2018

This study investigated concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, CO and O₃, and air quality index（AQI） values across 368 cities in mainland China during 2015–2018. The study further examined relationships of air pollution status with local industrial capacities and vehicle possessions. Strong correlations were found between industrial capacities（coal, pig iron, crude steel and rolled steel） and air pollution levels. Although statistical and ...     

环境规制效果与中国城市空气污染

中国不同城市的空气污染现状与年际变化存在巨大的差异,但总体而言正在经历着明显的改善。城市空气污染是政府环境规制效果的体现,论文从影响环境规制的多种途径和渠道出发,将影响政府环境规制执行效果的原因分为三种因素,包括来自企业等利益攸关者的环境规制执行阻力、来自社会的空气污染改善受益方的环境规制执行压力和政府本身的环境规制执行能力。论文着重阐述了这三种动力内容,并利用空气污染指数(API)数据制作非平衡面板模型,对这三种动力因素与规制执行效果的关系进行了验证,发现环境规制执行阻力和环境规制执行能力显著地影响规制执行效果。教育等社会因素通过提升环境规制压力也能够对环境规制执行进行一定的推动。     

Moving towards ambitious climate policies: Monetised health benefits from improved air quality could offset mitigation costs in Europe

Air quality and related health effects are not only affected by policies directly addressed at air pollution but also by other environmental strategies such as climate mitigation. This study addresses how different climate policy pathways indirectly bear upon air pollution in terms of improved human health in Europe. To this end, we put in perspective mitigation costs and monetised health benefits of reducing PM_2.5 (particles less than 2.5 μm in diameter) and ozone concentrations.Air quality in Europe and related health impacts were assessed using a comprehensive modelling chain, based on global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models together with a health impact assessment tool. This allows capturing both the impact of climate policy on emissions of air pollutants and the geophysical impact of climate change on air quality.Results are presented for projections at the 2050 horizon, for a set of consistent air pollution and climate policy scenarios, combined with population data from the UN's World Population Prospects, and are expressed in terms of morbidity and mortality impacts of PM_2.5 and ozone pollution and their monetised damage equivalent.The analysis shows that enforcement of current European air quality policies would effectively reduce health impacts from PM_2.5 in Europe even in the absence of climate policies (life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 decrease by 78% between 2005 and 2050 in the reference scenario), while impacts for ozone depend on the ambition level of international climate policies. A move towards stringent climate policies on a global scale, in addition to limiting global warming, creates co-benefits in terms of reduced health impacts (68% decrease in life years lost from the exposure to PM_2.5 and 85% decrease in premature deaths from ozone in 2050 in the mitigation scenario relative to the reference scenario) and air pollution cost savings (77%) in Europe. These co-benefits are found to offset at least 85% of the additional cost of climate policy in this region.     

衡水市大气污染成因研究及治理经验

衡水市作为"2+26"城市中典型的低GDP、高污染城市,其空气质量排名常年处于74个重点城市的后10位.自大气重污染成因与治理攻关项目工作开展以来,衡水市开展了大量污染成因研究及污染治理工作,已取得了较为明显的大气污染治理成效.从空气质量变化、排放源、污染物来源解析及气象条件与排放贡献等方面,梳理了衡水市大气污染成因研究及治理经验.结果表明:①衡水市的空气质量得到较大改善,PM₁₀和PM_2.5治理成效明显.2018年衡水市ρ（PM₁₀）和ρ（PM_2.5）年均值比2017年分别下降了25.12%和19.73%,比2013年分别下降了54.84%和51.22%,但O₃污染形势逐渐严峻,以O₃为首要污染物的天数由55 d（2013年）增至125 d（2018年）.②相比于2016年,衡水市2017年SO₂、NO_x、CO、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、BC、OC、VOC的排放总量均大幅下降.③2013-2018年导致衡水市PM_2.5下降的因素中,气象因素占8.0%,排放源因素占92.0%,说明衡水市通过减排措施改善空气质量的效果较为显著.④硝酸盐已经取代硫酸盐成为秋冬季颗粒物二次转化中最重要、占比最高的成分.研究显示,衡水市高ρ（PM_2.5）主要以本地排放和临近地区输送为主,为有效控制衡水市PM_2.5污染的发生与发展,应采取本地排放控制与"2+26"城市联防联控相结合的方案.