环境与经济形势的景气分析研究

为了识别社会经济发展对环境的影响,借鉴宏观经济景气分析的方法,构建了环境与经济形势景气分析框架.在识别影响环境发展态势的主要社会经济要素的基础上,构建环境与经济景气分析指标体系,并划分出针对污染物排放的先行和一致性指标,同时对其进行景气指数分析,预测预警未来环境的发展态势.应用该方法对全国大气环境SO2排放展开景气分析.2008年大气环境景气分析一致扩散指数为71.43,处于景气区间;合成指数为99.53,相对于2002年总体上呈下降趋势;社会经济发展对环境呈景气影响.但是先行扩散指数跌至不景气区间,部分指标出现环境不景气的变化趋势,会影响未来SO2减排.因此,需要进一步关注各预警指标的景气动向,通过控制重污染行业的产值比重及固定资产投资增长率,提高能源利用效率,优化能源消费结构,保证社会经济同环境的协调发展.     

The measurement of corporate environmental performance and its application to the analysis of efficiency in oil industry

This paper addresses a measurement of corporate environmental performance, and its application to the analysis of efficiency in the petroleum firms. In order to measure firms' environmental performance, we suggest a framework called “Gscore” that consists of five categories, namely general environmental management (GEM), input, process, output, and outcome. Gscore is a proxy measure of corporate environmental performance based on voluntary environment, health, and safety (EHS) report and is calculated by aggregating the points of the above five-categories. We apply our measurement framework to the data of 39 firms' voluntary EHS reports which are available on the internet. Ten of them, on which efficiency analysis was conducted with Gscore, assets, employee, and profits, are in petroleum and refining industry. According to our results: (1) a gap is found between rhetoric and practical environmental management stemming from calculating the relation between GEM and data part in 39 EHS reports. (2) On the whole, EHS reports of petroleum firms have something in common, but there are significant differences in the type and amounts of disclosed data among the EHS reports. (3) From the results of efficiency analysis, it is found that the number of employee exerts a considerable influence on determining the relative efficiency of petroleum firms, then Gscore, profits, and assets in sequence. Furthermore, Exxon, Ashland, Phillips Petroleum, and ARCO are shown to be efficient among 10 petroleum firms.     

基于利益相关者的企业环境绩效驱动机制及实证

基于利益相关者和企业环境绩效可能存在的驱动响应关系,提出将企业主体、政府部门、投资者、消费者、社区公众作为5个典型的利益相关者,构建了企业环境绩效的驱动因子体系.选取2008年度国内300强企业作为初始样本,详细整理其公开的环境信息,筛选确定以环境信息公开相对完善的41家企业为案例进行实证分析.企业环境绩效与驱动因素的Spearman相关分析表明,企业主体是环境绩效的主导驱动因素,政府部门和投资者是环境绩效的重要推动因素,而消费者和社区公众对环境绩效未有显著影响;典范对应分析表明,企业环境绩效驱动因素可归为3类,对企业环境绩效的总解释能力达到80.7%;53.66%的案例企业分别受到企业环境管理能力、政府环境规制、企业环境风险等因素的独立作用,而其余企业则受多因素共同作用.     

A rough set-based quality function deployment (QFD) approach for environmental performance evaluation: a case of offshore oil and gas operations

Activities in offshore oil and gas (OOG) that cause environmental impacts can be systematically managed through an environmental management system (EMS). Environmental performance evaluation (EPE) is an essential part of an EMS. However, previous studies on EPE indicate that existing lists of indicators little insight into how indicators are modified to more accurately assess environmental performance.In this paper, a way is proposed to identify and define specific environmental performance indicators on a case-by-case basis, which consists of five steps: (1) describing environmental requirements; (2) determining favourable outcomes corresponding to the requirements; (3) identifying required activities or issues to achieve the outcomes; (4) searching for proper measures of the activities or issues; and (5) generating a list of key indicators. Based on these steps, a quality function deployment (QFD) approach is developed to determine key indicators and evaluate environmental performance. To handle uncertainties in QFD, the decision makers’ evaluations are quantified through rough numbers using the concept of rough sets. The outputs of the proposed approach are different environmental performance indices. Using these indices, decision makers can easily determine whether an improved performance has been achieved through an EMS. The proposed approach is transparent and promising for use as a unified tool for EPE. An application of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a numerical example.     

基于DEA理论的中国区域环境效率分析

利用数据包络分析(DEA)模型对中国大陆31个省市区的环境效率进行总体分析与评价,并利用Tobit回归模型分析环境效率的影响因素.结果表明,我国区域环境效率总体水平比较低,但环境效率正逐年好转.根据经济与环境的协调程度可以将全国划分为生态平衡区、优化发展区和集约发展区3类环境-经济功能区.人均GDP、产业结构、城市化率、生产技术水平等都是影响环境效率的重要因素,其中人均GDP、第三产业比重与环境效率呈显著正相关,城市化率和单位GDP能耗与环境效率呈弱负相关.     

Survey and analysis of public environmental awareness and performance in Ningbo, China: a case study on household electrical and electronic equipment

Based upon a survey on household electronic and electrical equipment, this paper provides information on the public's perception of the local environmental quality, environmental awareness and environmental performance, and of their willingness to pay for improving environmental quality and making green purchases. The results indicate that Ningbo residents are not satisfied with the local environmental quality, and they would like very much to share environmental responsibility. About 64% of the respondents are aware of Chinese environmental labeling. Nearly 70% and 80% of the respondents are willing to pay for environmental improvement and to purchase environmentally friendly products, respectively. The amount of household electrical and electronic equipment has increased dramatically and most of them are phased out within their product lifetimes. Of all the respondents, 61% chose to reuse and recycle waste electrical and electronic equipment.     

Determinants of CO2 emissions in Brazil and Russia between 1992 and 2011: A decomposition analysis

This paper deals with the decomposition analysis of energy-related CO₂ emissions in Brazil and Russia from 1992 to 2011. The refined Laspeyres index (RLI) method applied and both aggregated and sectoral changes in CO₂ emissions decomposed. Brazil’s and Russia’s economies divided into three economic sectors including agriculture, industry and services. Impact of four main factors, such as economic activity, employment, energy intensity, and carbon intensity in CO₂ emissions changes were analyzed. The aggregated decomposition analysis revealed that Brazil is still far from a decoupling between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions where Russia achieved a substantial decline in carbon emissions mainly due to the improved energy intensity. The empirical findings of sectoral decomposition analysis emphasized that the economic activity was the major CO₂ increasing factor in Brazil’s economic sectors. On the other hand the economic activity effect followed a reducing impact in Russia’s sectoral emissions until 2000. The structural changes between sectors and their impacts on CO₂ emissions were captured by employment effect. Energy intensity and carbon intensity effects underlined that environmental sustainability widely neglected in Brazil and Russia during the study period. The results yield important hints for energy planning and sustainable environment.     

崇明北湖叶绿素a浓度与环境因子的GAM回归分析

以崇明北湖为例,采用广义加性模型(GAM)对该湖的叶绿素a浓度与相关环境因子进行分析.结果表明,叶绿素a浓度与总氮、总磷和水温之间存在较好的非线性关系(P<0.05),叶绿素a浓度与总磷之间的关系先为单调递增,当总磷浓度达到0.12mg/L时,变为单调递减;不同总氮浓度区间上,总氮对叶绿素a浓度的影响不同,氮浓度为0.6~1.8mg/L时,对叶绿素a浓度的影响不大;水温在24~26℃时,叶绿素a浓度最高.叶绿素a浓度与氮磷比之间也存在较好的非线性关系(P<0.1),氮限制时,叶绿素浓度与氮磷比呈反比;磷限制时,叶绿素a浓度随着氮磷比单调递减.     

滨海新区经济增长与能源消费响应关系初探

在充分研究美国、日本等国及滨海新区能源消费与经济增长响应关系的基础上,借鉴工业化国家能源消费减物质化的规律和经验,对滨海新区能源与经济的协调问题进行探讨.研究结果表明,实现产业结构的跨越式演进和节能技术进步是推动滨海新区最终实现能源消费绝对减物质化的主要途径.     

基于环保投入的区域环保产业发展空间均衡性分析

环保产业是我国战略性新兴产业的重要内容,近年来环保产业发展呈现高速增长的态势,年均增长率达30%以上,各地也将环保产业作为新的经济增长点.通过对基尼系数内涵的扩展,提出了环保产业发展基尼系数的概念.本文计算了中国2004年和2011年环保产业发展基尼系数,提出了以产业贡献系数作为判断均衡的因子.结果表明,中国环保产业基尼系数近年来呈上升态势,分别为0.35和0.42,说明环保产业空间分布变化较大,产业分布更加趋于集中.基于产业贡献系数分析,结合各地区环保投入力度及需求,提出了发展环保产业的重点地区与策略.     

不同地区经济增长与环境污染关系的VAR模型分析——基于广州、佛山、肇庆经济圈的实证研究

利用向量自回归(VAR)计量技术对广州.佛山一肇庆(简称"广佛肇")经济圈各城市表征环境污染的指标(工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量和工业固废产生量)和表征经济增长的指标(人均GDP)的时序数据进行脉冲响应函数及预测方差分解分析,研究处于工业化后期的广州、佛山市及工业化前期的肇庆市经济发展与环境污染在时序维度上的关系及其...     

城市规划环境影响评价中公众参与研究方法与案例

围绕规划环境影响评价中公众参与方案的有效性,以城市规划的环境影响评价为例,从城市规划和规划环境影响评价的特点出发,综合运用自上而下的分析手段和利益相关者研究方法,建立了城市规划环境影响评价开展公众调查的研究框架,将社会学调查方法有机地纳入规划环境影响评估方法学体系.以大连市城市发展规划环境影响评价为案例,讨论该研究框架在实践中的应用.     

基于生命周期评价的原生和再生PET纤维环境影响对比分析

分别以再生长丝〔以回收再生聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯（PET）瓶片为原料制备〕及原生长丝（以精对苯二甲酸和乙二醇为原料制备）为分析对象,利用生命周期评价(LCA)方法量化分析生产各阶段的环境影响及贡献,并提出减小环境影响的建议。选取全球变暖潜值、酸化效应潜值、非生物耗竭、光化学臭氧合成、陆地生态毒性潜值 5种环境影响类别进行分类计算。结果表明：再生长丝生产过程中熔融纺丝阶段的环境影响贡献大于物理处理阶段;通过特征化分析和归一化分析,与原生PET长丝相比,生产每100 kg的再生PET长丝全球变暖潜势减少32.09 kg (以CO₂计）,酸化效应潜值减少0.37 kg (以SO₂计);原生PET长丝和再生PET长丝生产过程中环境影响贡献最大的类别均为非生物耗竭。根据生命周期多边形法对5种环境影响类别的综合直观评估结果表明,再生PET长丝相比于原生PET长丝对环境影响更小,可以从能源优化、工艺环节改善等方面减小环境影响。

     

农业经营规模化发展对环境效率的影响——基于地块层面的实证分析

为探析农业规模化经营与农业环境可持续性之间的关系,对农业经营规模对农业环境效率的影响进行理论分析,并在此基础上构建了物料平衡原则下农业环境效率测算模型和农业环境效率影响模型.基于2004~2016年浙江省农户水稻种植地块层面的面板数据,实证检验了土地面积、劳动投入、资本投入和农业产出等农业经营规模指标对农业环境效率的影响.结果显示,农业规模化发展将因投入和产出的扩张以多种方式影响其环境效率,其中土地面积规模与农业环境效率之间呈倒U型关系,劳动投入和资本投入对农业生产环境效率均有负向的影响,而农业产出规模的增加将促进农业环境效率的提升.     

主体功能区视角下的环境污染时空格局及驱动因素——基于广东省121个县域的实证分析

基于县域污染物排放和人口社会经济数据库,运用熵权法构建水气污染综合指数测度广东省水气环境污染状况,在解析2012—2016年水气环境污染时空变化与主体功能区分异特征的基础上,采用空间计量模型考察水气环境污染的驱动因素及其在不同类型主体功能区之间的差异.研究结果表明：① 2012—2016年,广东省水气污染综合指数降幅达到46.93%,处于污染指数高值区间的县域数量大幅减少,并呈现由边缘向核心收缩的空间变化特征;② 4类主体功能区的水气环境污染均有明显改善,但相对而言,城市化地区和农产品主产区仍是广东省水气污染物排放的主要承压区;③人口规模是各类主体功能区水气环境污染的共性驱动因素,此外,城市化地区、农产品主产区和重点生态功能区还分别受到工业化水平、社会固定资产投资和财政收入分权程度的影响.建议从引导城乡居民绿色生活、持续提升清洁生产技术、增加地方财政分权激励机制中的环境效益考核入手强化区域环境污染综合治理.     

双酚A体外类雌激素活性评价及其作用机制的初步研究

采用体外MCF-7细胞增殖试验检测了双酚A(BPA)的类雌激素活性，并用生长曲线分析、细胞周期分析、他奠昔芬拮抗试验和凋亡检测对其作用机制进行了初步探讨。结果显示BPA有明显刺激MCF-7细胞增殖的类雌激素活性；细胞周期分析BPA组细胞增殖指数均明显高于溶剂对照组；BPA刺激MCF-7细胞增殖的类雌激素活性可被Tam拮抗：BPA能明显抑制MCF-7细胞凋亡的发生。结果提示BPA刺激MCF-7细胞增殖的类雌激素活性作用机制可能是BPA与雌激素受体结合后，影响细胞增殖及细胞凋亡过程，从而产生一系列生物效应。     

生活空间重构旅游者的乡村游憩影响因素与路径——一个模糊集的定性比较分析

旅游者是乡村旅游发展中的核心要素,但当前研究缺乏从城乡空间转换中的人地关系变迁角度对旅游者进行的思考。以经历城乡生活空间重构的旅游者为研究对象,运用分析多变量交互作用的模糊集定性比较分析方法,探索旅游者乡村游憩影响因素的复杂路径。研究发现:地方情感、怀旧情感、主观规范、知觉行为控制、态度、愿望（欲望）、旅游目的地知名度形成的128种组合中,其中有8个充分性条件构型特定组合路径能够影响乡村旅游者游憩行为;单项中地方情感、怀旧情感、知觉行为控制的一致性相对较高,但都不能构成旅游者乡村游憩影响因素的必要条件;8条旅游者乡村游憩行为影响因素路径条件组合的总体覆盖率约为0.918919,总体一致性约为1,均达到了0.9的阈值标准。其中,地方情感和怀旧情感特性是最关键的影响因素;旅游者具有地方情感、怀旧情感特征时,其他影响因素都可能在“特定情境”下发挥作用。据此提出了生活空间重构旅游者的乡村游憩影响路径模型,揭示了“乡村情感—游憩意向路径”“计划行为—游憩意向路径”“游憩愿望路径”和“情感行为综合路径”四类影响路径的作用机制。旅游从业者可以据此寻找与旅游者游憩最匹配的产品开发解决方案。     

建筑废弃物资源化环境效益分析:以重庆为例

为了向政府提供可以提升建筑废弃物资源化环境效益的有利政策,以促进建筑废弃物资源化的可持续发展,本文从系统角度,应用系统动力学通过文献分析、实地调研、调查问卷等方法对建筑废弃物资源化的环境效益进行建模和模拟仿真.通过对环境效益模型进行情景分析,得出当非法排放单位罚款在50~60元/t,单位填埋收费取30元/t左右,建筑废弃物到资源化处置中心距离在15~25km左右,资源化的单位补贴额为25元/t左右时,可以使环境效益处于较优状态.同时政府应提高建筑废弃物相关法律的完善程度、培养相关人员的现场回收意识、促进相关科研研发,以期促进建筑废弃物资源化的环境效益.     

基于生命周期视角的种养一体化奶牛场环境经济效益评估

准确评估种养一体化奶牛场的经济性能与环境绩效,是相关支持政策制定的基础,也是促进奶业低碳生产的关键.本文基于生命周期视角,对非种养一体化奶牛场(non-IPBS)和种养一体化奶牛场(IPBS)养殖过程中的温室气体排放、能源消耗、水消耗、土地占用等环境成本和经济效益进行评估.结果 表明,non-IPBS生产1t标准牛奶(...     

基于集对分析的地质环境承载力研究——以大庆市为例

随着全球城市化进程的不断加快,城市地质环境正在承受前所未有的影响与压力,为了科学地指导城市地质环境规划,有效提高城市地质环境的调控手段,需要对城市地质环境承载力进行系统综合的研究。文章以多学科理论方法为指导,在对地质环境承载力概念内涵分析的基础上,从资源、环境、调节和社会经济四个方面构建地质环境承载力评价指标体系;用基于熵值-AHP(The analytic hierarchy process)法的集对分析模型对大庆市地质环境承力进行评价。研究表明:肇州、肇源是当前大庆市地质环境承载状况较差的区域,需重点保护;据80年代和现状数据对比分析得出,虽然承载状况呈转好趋势,但环境子系统却变差,因而环境保护尤为重要。另外,通过对对立度和同一度的分析,提出了改善地质环境承载力的具体策略。