Marginal Abatement Costs and Marginal Welfare Costs for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions: Results from the EPPA Model

Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, relationships between tonnes of emissions abated and the CO₂ (or greenhouse gas (GHG)) price, have been widely used as pedagogic devices to illustrate simple economic concepts such as the benefits of emissions trading. They have also been used to produce reduced-form models to examine situations where solving the more complex model underlying the MAC is difficult. Some important issues arise in such applications: (1) Are MAC relationships independent of what happens in other regions?, (2) are MACs stable through time regardless of what policies have been implemented in the past?, and (3) can one approximate welfare costs from MACs? This paper explores the basic characteristics of MAC and marginal welfare cost (MWC) curves, deriving them using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model. We find that, depending on the method used to construct them, MACs are affected by policies abroad. They are also dependent on policies in place in the past and depend on whether they are CO₂-only or include all GHGs. Further, we find that MACs are, in general, not closely related to MWCs and therefore should not be used to derive estimates of welfare change. We also show that, as commonly constructed, MACs may be unreliable in replicating results of the parent model when used to simulate GHG policies. This is especially true if the policy simulations differ from the conditions under which the MACs were simulated.     

Optimal Timing to Adopt an Environmental Policy in a Strategic Framework

In this paper, the problem of optimal timing, when to adopt an environmental policy in a strategic framework is considered. Using real options theory and some basic tools of game theory, we show that, under certain assumptions, a country behaving strategically should wait longer before adopting such a policy than if it behaves unstrategically or within a larger entity. Such a postponed decision is sub-optimal as regards to the environment protection.     

Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R

Within this paper, we present the novel hybrid model REMIND-R and its application in a climate policy context based on the EU target to avoid a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial level. This paper aims to identify necessary long-term changes in the energy system and the magnitude of costs to attain such a climate protection target under different designs of the post-2012 climate policy regime. The regional specification of mitigation costs is analyzed in the context of globalization where regions are linked by global markets for emission permits, goods, and several resources. From simulation experiments with REMIND-R, it turns out that quite different strategies of restructuring the energy system are pursued by the regions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the variance of mitigation costs is higher across regions than across policy regimes. First-order impacts, in particular, reduced rents from trade in fossil resources, prevail regardless of the design of the policy regime.     

Optimal Policy Mechanism Design for Cross-Sector and Multi-Stage Pollution Control with a Bilevel Model: Application to SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emission in China

In this paper, we construct a multi-stage coordinated programming model under tax system to control SO₂ emission. The model is based on an explicitly formulated SO₂ abatement cost function created under Chinese condition. Analysis of the effectiveness and impact on the economy of the model is carried out with consideration of game theory. By solving the model, theoretical results show that the volume-based multi-stage SO₂ tax system has two properties: effectiveness and equal-rate. Based on these theoretical results, empirical study is also performed using Chinese historical data. Compared with yearly single-stage programming model, the tax rate generated by the coordinated multi-stage programming model is time-invariant and rather moderate in scale. The total abatement cost among planning years in our model is 21.03 % less than the actual number and 6.68 % less than that in the single-stage situation. The tax payment suggested by our model is 10.62 % less than by the single-stage model. In general, a coordinated multi-stage programming model helps reduce the overall costs of environmental protection while achieving the same emission control target with less burden added to the economy.     

Environmental Monitoring and Research Initiative: a Priority Activity for the Committee on Environmental and Natural Resources

The Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) has recognized a high priority need to integrate and coordinate federal agencies' efforts in order to enable a comprehensive evaluation of our nation's environmental resources and ecological systems. The federal government spends about $640 million per year collecting data about our forests, agricultural and rangelands, lakes, rivers, estuaries, and coastal marine systems. These efforts have significantly aided the progress in preserving and protecting the environment in recent decades but are not sufficiently coordinated to provide us a truly comprehensive status report or full understanding of the causes and effects of environmental change. This paper describes the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources and its functions, provides a status report on the Environmental Monitoring and Research Initiative, and offers some perspectives on the factors that will make the initiative and its contributing programs a success. In particular, the paper discusses the potential relationship with the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP).     

Multimedia Integrated Modeling for Environmental Protection: Introduction to a Collaborative Framework

The EPA's Office of Research and Development is embarking on a long term project to develop a Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS). The system will have capabilities to represent the transport and fate of nutrients and chemical stressors over multiple spatial and temporal scales. MIMS will be designed to improve the environmental management community's ability to evaluate the impact of air and water quality and watershed management practices on stream and estuarine conditions. The system will provide a computer-based problem-solving environment for testing understanding of multimedia (atmosphere, land, water) environmental problems, such as the movement of chemicals through the hydrologic cycle, and the response of aquatic ecological systems to land-use change, with initial emphasis on the fish health endpoint. The design will attempt to combine the state-of-the-art in computer science, system design, and numerical analysis (i.e., object-oriented design, parallel processing, advanced numerical libraries including analytic elements) with the latest advancements in process level science (hydrology, atmospheric sciences, chemistry, ecology). The purpose of this paper is to introduce a vision for a MIMS and anticipate the challenges to its development.     

System Dynamics Modeling and Policy Simulation for Urban Traffic: a Case Study in Beijing

This paper constructs a system dynamics model for simulating the impact of different strategies on urban traffic’s energy consumption and carbon emissions. Based on a case study in Beijing, the model includes three subsystems: (1) urban traffic, (2) population and economy, and (3) energy consumption and carbon emissions. First, the model is used to decompose the impact of different vehicles on energy consumption and carbon emissions. Decomposition results show that private cars have the most significant impact on urban traffic’s energy consumption and carbon emissions; however, total vehicle kilometers traveled by private cars are the smallest among four trip modes. Then, the model is used to simulate different urban traffic policies. Policies are categorized as follows: (a) driving restrictions on vehicle registration numbers, (b) a scheme for vehicle registrations via a lottery system, and (c) development of public transportation infrastructures. Scenario simulation results show that all those measures can reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Though the last strategy (c) contains several delays, its effect is more stable and far-reaching. Finally, some recommendations about easing traffic pressure and reducing traffic emissions are given.     

Genetic Patterns as a Tool for Monitoring and Assessment of Environmental Impacts: the Example of Genetic Ecotoxicology

Genetic techniques are widely applied to assess the effects of environmental variation or exogenous impacts on populations. Many studies fail to provide convincing evidence that genetic patterns are attributable to the factors proposed. We assert that a rigorous approach must be followed to distinguish patterns of natural genetic variation from genetic change. We review the principles of natural genetic variation and population structure and present them in the context of their interaction with biological and stochastic sources of genetic change. Key steps are articulated which are often overlooked when applying genetic techniques. These are consideration of population structure when comparing populations, developing a specific test against a model of genetic change, and testing for evidence of direct effects and mechanisms of impact. Use of these steps in genetic ecotoxicology is described in detail and includes three primary methods of linking genetic patterns to the effects of contaminants. We propose that this combined approach is critical to the use of genetic techniques to assess and predict long-term effects of environmental impacts on populations or ecosystems.     

Assessment of Treatment Alternatives for Laboratory COD Wastewater: a Practical Comparison with Emphasis on Cost and Performance

This study focused on investigation of treatment alternativesfor COD wastewater from academic laboratories, using a number oftechnologies including chemical reduction/precipitation, ion exchange and adsorption by chitosan. Results showed that highconcentrations of 375 mg l^-1 chromium, 1,740 mg l^-1mercury and 993 mg l^-1 silver in COD wastewater can be reduced to 2.34 mg l^-1, 3.65 mg l^-1 and 1.89 mg l^-1 respectively, by the chemical reduction/precipitationprocess. Results from ion exchange at a flowrate of 20 ml min^-1 showed breakthrough effluent concentrations obtainedat 0.59 mg l^-1 chromium, 3.92 g l^-1 mercury and 0.65 mg l^-1 silver corresponding to 75.6 l at 63 hr, 40.8 l at 34 hr and 33.6 l at 28 hr respectively. Kinetic and isotherm studies revealed that chitosan can adsorb Cr⁶⁺, Hg²⁺ and Ag⁺ ions most effectively at a flowrate of 20 ml min^-1 and the optimum pH for feed solution is 4. Chitosan column experiments indicated that average effluent concentrations at breakthrough point for chromium, mercury andsilver are 0.76 mg l^-1, 6.04 mg l^-1 and 0.51 mg l^-1 respectively with throughput volumes and retention times of 120 l at 100 hr, 60 l at 50 hr and 48 l at 40 hr. Results of solidification experiments for chemical sludge and residual chitosan based on compressive strength and metal leachabilitytests showed, that the acceptable ranges of the solidificationparameters were: sludge/cement = 0.1–1.0 (weight/weight), water/cement = 0.5–0.6 (weight/weight) and sand/cement = 0.5–3.0 (weight/weight). Operating cost per litre of COD wastewater treated, based on the current prices in Thailand wasfound to be Baht 19.95 for the chemical reduction/precipitationprocess, Baht 96.35 for ion exchange treatment and Baht 18.29 forchitosan adsorption.     

Extended Analytical Turbulent Diffusion Model for Particle Dispersion and Deposition in a Horizontal Pipe: Comparison with CFD Simulation

A 2D analytical turbulent diffusion model for particle dispersion and deposition at different heights along the pipe flow and circumferential deposition has been developed. This liquid–solid turbulent diffusion model presented in this paper has emanated from an existing gas–liquid turbulent diffusion model. This model can be used as a handy tool for quick estimation one and two-dimensional deposition fluxes of particles in water distribution networks. A comprehensive 3D numerical investigation has been carried out using multiphase mixture model available in “Fluent 6.2” to verify the above analytical model. Different particles sizes and densities were used for 3D numerical investigations. The deposition was studied as a function of particle diameter, density, and fluid velocity. The deposition of particles, along the periphery of the pipe wall and at different depths, was investigated. Both the models findings matched with qualitative phenomena such as deposition of heavier particles at the bottom of the pipe wall were higher at lower velocities and lower at higher velocities. The lighter particles were found mostly suspended with homogeneous distribution. Smaller particles were also suspended with marginal higher concentration near the bottom of the pipe wall. This marginal higher concentration of the smaller particles was found to be slightly pronounced for lower velocity. These analogies of particles are well discussed with the ratio between free-flight velocity and the gravitational settling velocity. Extended analytical model results were compared with the 3D computational fluid dynamics simulation results. Discrepancies in the model results were discussed.     

Zoobenthic variability associated with a flood and drought in the Hawkesbury estuary,New South Wales: Some consequences for environmental monitoring

Changes in the Hawkesbury zoobenthos associated with a major flood and drought are described and comparisons made in the patterns of change among estuarine reaches and among sites within reaches. The consequences for environmental monitoring and management are discussed. Replicate grab samples were taken from four sites in each of the lower, middle and upper reaches. Reductions in the mean number of species per grab (S) following the flood were significant only in the lower reaches and at one site in the middle reaches. Increases in S accompanied the drought in all reaches but intra-reach variation in temporal patterns occurred in both S and in the most abundant species found. Thus, major weather events are associated with temporal changes whose patterns differ on both small and large spatial scales. Consequently, the results from fixed-factor sampling designs, which are widely used, may be unrepresentative of other areas. Unfortunately, the alternative approach of stratified random sampling will probably be both prohibitively expensive and difficult to implement in the complex estuarine benthic habitat. Further, short-term studies will probably be grossly unrepresentative of natural temporal variation. Attempts to reduce expenses by using only one or two abundant species as characterising communities or as indicators of physicochemical conditions may be unreliable because of variation in both time and space in dominant species and the lack of pollution-response knowledge for local species.     

Preliminary results of laboratory toxicity tests with the mayfly, Isonychia bicolor (Ephemeroptera: Isonychiidae) for development as a standard test organism for evaluating streams in the Appalachian coalfields of Virginia and West Virginia

Selecting the most appropriate test species for sediment and water column assays has been a primary goal for ecotoxicologists. Standard test organisms and established test guidelines exist, but the USEPA-recommended species may not be the most sensitive organisms to anthropogenic inputs. This paper describes preliminary results of toxicity tests with the mayfly, Isonychia bicolor (Ephemeroptera). Results suggested that Isonychia were moderately sensitive to NaCl after 96 h with an average LC₅₀ value of 3.10 g NaCl per liter. This value decreased after 7 days of exposure, resulting in a mean LC₅₀ value of 1.73 g NaCl per liter. When exposed to a coal-mine-processed effluent, Isonychia generated LC₅₀ values that ranged from 13% to 39% effluent. I. bicolor were more sensitive to the coal processing effluent than Ceriodaphnia dubia with conductivity lowest observable effects concentration (LOEC) values for mayfly survivorship that ranged from 1,508 to 4,101 μS/cm, while LOEC values for C. dubia reproduction ranged from 2,132 to 4,240 μS/cm.     

“z值评价-风险评估-技术核验”统计评价模型用于低样本量能力验证——以水质监测为例

为解决低样本量下的能力验证z比分数评价结果可能偏离参加者真实能力水平的问题,建立了"z值评价-风险评估-技术核验"统计评价模型,以"一带一路"共建国家"水中铁和氟化物的检测"国际能力验证项目为例进行了验证。结果显示:样本量为14家(低样本量)、指定值与样本真值相对误差的绝对值大于4%时,铁检测项目获得"满意"评价结果的14家参加者中,5家存在数据"不准确"中/高风险;氟化物检测项目获得"满意"评价结果的11家参加者中,7家存在数据"不准确"中/高风险。技术核验反映出的突出问题是参加者未按照检测方法的要求实施质量控制措施,标准曲线绘制、试剂配制、关键仪器参数设置记录缺失,原始记录可追溯性较差。由此证实了数据风险点的存在,同时也印证了该统计评价模型的可靠性和必要性。     

A proficiency testing scheme for aromatic hydrocarbons in air by the manual thermal desorption-GC method: a comparison of laboratory performance with the uncertainty requirements of the European Union Ambient Air Directive

The Workplace Analysis Scheme for Proficiency (WASP) is a proficiency testing scheme for the analysis of occupational hygiene and environmental air samples and is operated in the UK by the Health and Safety Laboratory. Since 1997, WASP has offered samples of benzene, toluene and m-xylene, at environmental levels on Tenax, and has about 35 laboratories participating, mostly from industry, local government and consultancy organisations in the UK. The results reported cover the first 10 rounds of the environmental analytes (1997-1999) and demonstrate the important role of proficiency testing in assessing the quality of laboratory performance. Estimates are obtained for within-laboratory precision and the total variability at each analyte level. The estimates of within-laboratory precision suggest that laboratories have more difficulty analysing toluene and m-xylene than benzene. Linear relationships for the reproducibility relative standard deviation (RSDT) with loading level are evident for the analytes at occupational levels. At environmental levels, the relationship between loading level and reproducibility is much less well defined. The standard deviation for the proficiency testing assessment for all three analytes at the environmental level is 14%, as derived from the benzene data. Expanded uncertainty estimates (k = 1.96), for the analysis of samples since the scheme started, are obtained from the average total variance, and are 27% for benzene, 39% for toluene and 36% for m-xylene. Although the linear trend of performance against round number was not significant at the 95% level of confidence (p = 0.23 for benzene, p = 0.3 for toluene and p = 0.32 for m-xylene), there was a general improvement in RSDT from 26-34% to about 8-13% 10 rounds later. Currently, for a laboratory to meet one of the data quality objectives in the Ambient Air Directive (indicative measurement of benzene, expanded uncertainty +/- 30% or less), it would have to achieve a level of analytical performance to satisfy the category 1 (best performance) limit of better than +/- 8.8%. In the last proficiency testing round, discussed in this paper, only 58% of laboratories obtained performance scores that indicated that they were able to consistently achieve this level of performance.     

Bioaccumulation of metals in common carp (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyprinus carpio</Emphasis> L.) from water bodies of Anatolia (Turkey): a review with implications for fisheries and human food consumption

Although fish is widely consumed by humans for its nutritional properties, accumulation of heavy metals can pose serious health hazards. Widespread common carp Cyprinus carpio is cultured worldwide and represents an economically important species for fisheries in several countries. These include Turkey, where C. carpio often makes for a large part of the sales of the locally marketed fish and also for a traditional dish. This study provides a review of bioaccumulation of metals in tissues of C. carpio from water bodies of Anatolia and also includes reference to worldwide studies. From 42 water bodies across the region, 27 metals in total were studied, of which Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn were the most widely analysed, mainly in the muscle, liver and gill tissues. Amongst the potentially toxic metals, Cd, Cr and Pb occurred in several water bodies at concentrations not only above maximum allowed limits but also higher relative to other water bodies worldwide, even though As, Hg and Ni were also sometimes present at potentially hazardous concentrations. The essential metals Cu, Fe, Mn, Se and Zn were detected at various concentrations, with the latter two occasionally above limit. All water bodies flagged as having especially critical (i.e. above limit) concentrations of toxic metals supported C. carpio fisheries from highly populated regions, raising concern about food safety and calling for preventative measures. Given the significantly lower bioaccumulation levels in the muscle relative to the liver and gill tissues, it is suggested that consumption of C. carpio as fillets may be safer than after processing into e.g. meat balls and sausages. The limits of 1.0 μg/g for Cr and 1.15 μg/g for Se, currently lacking from the Turkish food safety legislation, are proposed, and it is suggested that a similar meta-analytical approach as adopted in this study may benefit other countries where C. carpio represents an important fisheries resource.