JSEM: A Framework for Identifying and Evaluating Indicators

There are two issues in indicator development that have not been adequately addressed: (1) how to select an optimal combination of potentially redundant indicators that together best represent an endpoint, given cost constraints; (2) how to identify and evaluate indicators when the endpoint is unmeasured. This paper presents an approach to identifying and evaluating combinations of indicators when the mathematical relationships between the indicators and an endpoint may not be quantified, a limitation common to many ecological assessments. The approach uses the framework of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which combines path analysis withmeasurement models, to formalize available informationabout potential indicators and to evaluate their potential adequacy for representing an endpoint. Unlike traditional applications of SEM which require data on all variables, our approach – judgement-based SEM (JSEM) – can utilize expert judgement regarding the strengths and shapes of indicator-endpoint relationships. JSEM is applied in two stages. First, a conceptual model that relates variables in a network of direct and indirect linkages is developed, and is used to identify indicators relevant to an endpoint. Second, an index of indicator strength – i.e., the strength of the relationship between the endpoint and a set of indicators – is calculated from estimates of correlation between the modeled variables, and is used to compare alternative sets of indicators. The second stage is most appropriate for large, long-term assessments. Although JSEM is not a statistical technique, basing JSEM on SEM provides a structure for validating the conceptual model and for refining the index of indicator strength as data become available. Our main objective is to contribute to a rigorous and consistent selection of indicators even when knowledgeabout the ability of indicators to represent an endpoint is limited to expert judgement.     

分光光度分析加标回收率直接计算的数学模型研究

根据分光光度分析试液的吸光度与测定过程中的有关参数,推导出直接计算加标回收率的数学模型。经应用验证,该模型推导正确,应用结果可靠,而且计算简单、快速     

The Sustainability Dynamics Framework – A holistic approach to define and evaluate sustainability and unsustainability in the Anthropocene

The significant role and impact of humans in fostering environmental change, at all spatial-temporal scales, has been formally recognised by the development and inclusion of the Anthropocene epoch into the standardised geological time scale. Due to the role and impacts that humans are having, it is necessary to develop an understanding of the co-evolutionary relationship between humans and the environment in the Anthropocene – Specifically, in relation to the fundamental dynamics of sustainability and unsustainability. This requires the development of approaches which are capable of developing new holistic knowledge concerning the fundamental dynamics of sustainability/unsustainability operating at any specified spatial-temporal scale(s) in the Anthropocene. Henceforth, this paper proposes a holistic quantitative framework - the Sustainability Dynamics Framework. The framework integrates and extends four fundamental theories concerning the environment-human relationship into a single framework. The framework is then demonstratively applied for the first time to determine and analyse the fundamental dynamic relationships between indicated levels of sustainability (S-values) and various influencing factors, significantly expanding upon previously obtained results and analysis in Phillips (2015). The demonstrative application indicates that the SDF has a potential contribution towards advancing knowledge concerning the dynamics of sustainability/unsustainability in the Anthropocene. This will be demonstrated through the future applications of the SDF to newly developed case studies of a multi spatial-temporal nature.     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

Bioremediation With Oxygen-Releasing Solids: A Mathematical Model

The use of oxygen releasing solids in passive wells has become of considerable interest in the bioremediation of groundwater contaminated with hydrocarbons and other biodegradable contaminants. Labor, operating, and maintenance costs of this technology are quite competitive with more conventional techniques in many instances. Because of the small rates of mass transport by transverse dispersion, however, a pin-stripe pattern of alternating contaminant and oxygen distribution is expected downgradient of a line of wells which is unacceptable if it extends beyond the point of compliance downgradient. A mathematical model is presented which permits determination of the maximum well spacing in an array of wells which will yield effective remediation within a specified distance of a plume of contaminated groundwater passing through the array. Transverse dispersion of both oxygen and the contaminant is assumed, and biodegradation is modeled by means of Monod kinetics. Longitudinal numerical dispersion is minimized by the use of a asymmetrical upwind algorithm for modeling advection. Modeling results are presented showing the dependence of model behavior on input parameters.     

A Satisficing Framework for Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty

We propose a novel framework for the economic assessment of environmental policy. Our main point of departure from existing work is the adoption of a satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, modeling approach. Along these lines, we place primary emphasis on the extent to which different policies meet a set of goals at a specific future date instead of their performance vis-a-vis some intertemporal objective function. Consistent to the nature of environmental policymaking, our model takes explicit account of model uncertainty. To this end, the decision criterion we propose is an analog of the well-known success-probability criterion adapted to settings characterized by model uncertainty. We apply our criterion to the climate-change context and the probability distributions constructed by Drouet et al. (2015) linking carbon budgets to future consumption. Insights from computational geometry facilitate computations considerably and allow for the efficient application of the model in high-dimensional settings.

     

A Framework for a Delaware Inland Bays Environmental Classification

Since Delaware's coastal bays have been highly eutrophied for at least twenty years and Maryland's coastal bays are not nutrient stressed, dominance of the fish community in Delaware's coastal bays by Fundulus sp. may be an indicator of nutrient stress. Maryland's coastal bays are menhaden, spot, and anchovy dominated. The dominance of Fundulus sp. in a nutrient-stressed system relates to the hardy nature of these fishes, especially in low-oxygen conditions. Submerged aquatic vegetation as seagrasses (SAV) has been absent from the highly nutrient-stressed Delaware coastal bays for about twenty-five years. In contrast, SAV is still found in Maryland's coastal bays. The loss of SAV as a habitat for young fish may also be contributing to the apparent species shift in Delaware's coastal bays.Indian River Bay is less hospitable to macroalgae (seaweeds) than Rehoboth Bay. Dominance of Ulva in Indian River Bay reflects its tolerance to varying salinities, higher nutrient levels, and increased turbidities, and indicates a stressed system. The total volume of macroalgae, especially in Rehoboth Bay, tends to follow the seasonal cycle for phosphorus.Based on an assessment of the ecological condition of the Delaware and Maryland coastal bays conducted by EMAP in 1993 and other related studies, the author offers a conceptual framework for Delaware's inland bays environmental classification, considering the water quality parameters of turbidity, TSS, Chla, DIN, DIP, and O2 as they relate to presence of SAV, seaweed abundance and diversity, benthic invertebrate diversity, and fish sensitivity to low oxygen.     

Climatic Implications of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios, the Kyoto Protocol and Quantification of Uncertainties

In December 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) adopted the Kyoto Protocol. This paper describes a framework that models the climatic implications of this international agreement, using Monte Carlo simulations and the preliminary Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios (SRES). Emissions scenarios (including intervention scenarios), climate sensitivity, and terrestrial carbon sink are the key sampled model parameters. This framework gives prior probability distributions to these parameters and, using a simple climate model, posterior distributions of global temperature change are determined for the future. Our exercise showed that the Kyoto Protocol's effectiveness will be mostly dependent upon which SRES world evolves. In some worlds the Protocol decreases the warming considerably but in others it is almost irrelevant. We exemplified this approach with a current FCCC issue, namely “hot air”. This modelling framework provides a probabilistic assessment of climate policies, which can be useful for decision-makers involved in global climate change management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A critical review of principal traffic noise models: Strategies and implications

The paper presents an exhaustive comparison of principal traffic noise models adopted in recent years in developed nations. The comparison is drawn on the basis of technical attributes including source modelling and sound propagation algorithms. Although the characterization of source in terms of rolling and propulsion noise in conjunction with advanced numerical methods for sound propagation has significantly reduced the uncertainty in traffic noise predictions, the approach followed is quite complex and requires specialized mathematical skills for predictions which is sometimes quite cumbersome for town planners. Also, it is sometimes difficult to follow the best approach when a variety of solutions have been proposed. This paper critically reviews all these aspects pertaining to the recent models developed and adapted in some countries and also discusses the strategies followed and implications of these models.     

Monitoring Urban Streams: Strategies and Protocols for Humid-Region Lowland Systems

Governmental mandates and public awareness have forcedprogressively smaller and less sophisticated agencies andorganizations to initiate stream monitoring programs,particularly in urban and urbanizing areas. Yet many of thesemonitoring efforts lack either a coherent conceptual frameworkor appropriately chosen methods, and they rely on monitoringtechniques that are simply infeasible for these institutionalsettings. We propose a monitoring strategy, and specificexisting monitoring protocols, that will be useful for themanagement and rehabilitation of streams in urbanizing watersheds.A monitoring strategy must be developed by 1) identifying the management question(s) being addressed, 2) determining theinstitional level of effort required (and available) toeffectively make particular kinds of measurements, and 3) identifying what specific parameters should and can be measured.Only a limited set of parameters show much utility orfeasibility in addressing the most common management questionsbeing faced by municipalities in urbanizing, humid-area regionsof the United States. These include measures of riparian canopy,bank erosion and bank hardening, and in-stream large woodydebris. With some additional expertise useful data can also beincluded on channel gradient, substrate composition, and pools.Nearly all of the other myriad parameters that have beenmeasured historically on rivers and streams show little apparentvalue in these watershed and institutional settings.     

A Framework for the Design of Ecological Monitoring Programs as a Tool for Environmental and Nature Management

Environmental and nature management can not operate effectivelywithout reliable information on changes in the environment andon the causes of those changes. Ecological monitoring canrepresent an important source of information. However, manyoperational monitoring programs are not very effective, i.e., not very useful for decision-making. We present a conceptualframework for the development and maintenance of effectiveecological monitoring programs. In the decision-making process,two main functions for monitoring can be recognized: an earlywarning and an early control function. Both these functionsrequire a high diagnostic power. This is used as a guideline forthe design process. The design consists of choices concerningmonitoring objectives, objects and variables to be monitored,sampling strategy and design, data collection, data handling, maintenance and organization. Arguments commonly put forward inliterature and in practice to support the various choices aresubjected to a critical analysis. The framework will be helpfulin the design of effective monitoring systems as it avoidsimportant components to be overlooked, clarifies the relationbetween the different components, maximizes the exploitation ofexisting possibilities and opportunities and identifiesshortcomings in advance. This will result in monitoring programsthat should be able to live up to their expectations.     

浙江浦阳江大型底栖无脊椎动物物种多样性和生态功能恢复研究

为科学评估河流修复效果,研究修复河流中底栖动物物种多样性和生态功能恢复特征,以浙江省浦江县浦阳江干流为研究对象,分别对2个近自然河段、2个城区修复河段和3个郊区修复河段在修复后1,3,4和5年的水质和底栖动物恢复状况进行调查研究.采用广义最小二乘法(GLS)模型探索底栖动物物种多样性(总物种丰富度、EPT丰富度和Sha...     

Multimedia Integrated Modeling for Environmental Protection: Introduction to a Collaborative Framework

The EPA's Office of Research and Development is embarking on a long term project to develop a Multimedia Integrated Modeling System (MIMS). The system will have capabilities to represent the transport and fate of nutrients and chemical stressors over multiple spatial and temporal scales. MIMS will be designed to improve the environmental management community's ability to evaluate the impact of air and water quality and watershed management practices on stream and estuarine conditions. The system will provide a computer-based problem-solving environment for testing understanding of multimedia (atmosphere, land, water) environmental problems, such as the movement of chemicals through the hydrologic cycle, and the response of aquatic ecological systems to land-use change, with initial emphasis on the fish health endpoint. The design will attempt to combine the state-of-the-art in computer science, system design, and numerical analysis (i.e., object-oriented design, parallel processing, advanced numerical libraries including analytic elements) with the latest advancements in process level science (hydrology, atmospheric sciences, chemistry, ecology). The purpose of this paper is to introduce a vision for a MIMS and anticipate the challenges to its development.     

A Stage-Structured Pest-Natural Enemy Dynamics with Holling Type-II Interaction and Maturation Delay for Pest Species

In this paper, a pest-natural enemy dynamics with maturation delay for pest species is proposed. Here, pest is categorized into two stages, namely immature and mature and the natural enemy only harvest mature pest population with Holling type-II interaction. The boundedness and positivity of the solution of the system are presented. The asymptotic behavior of the system is studied and analyzed for all feasible equilibrium points. Sensitivity analysis of the system at interior equilibrium point for the system parameters is performed, and respective sensitive indices of the variables are identified. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to support our analytic results.

     

A Simulation Framework for Assessing Physical and Wildlife Impacts of Oil and Gas Development Scenarios in Southwestern Wyoming

Foreseeable natural gas development in southwestern Wyoming has the potential to increase sagebrush fragmentation and risks to resident wildlife species. The ability to balance future development with conservation goals, however, is enhanced by advances in directional-drilling technologies that use multiple wells per pad and produce less surface disturbance than conventional drilling methods. To evaluate the conservation potential of this technology, I developed an energy footprint model that simulates well, pad, and road patterns for oil and gas recovery options that vary in well types (vertical and directional) and number of wells per pad and use simulation results to quantify physical and wildlife-habitat impacts. I applied the model to assess tradeoffs among 10 conventional and directional-drilling scenarios in a natural gas field in southwestern Wyoming. Scenarios spanned a gradient in the number of vertical and directional wells, and in number of pads (2000 to 250), but all extracted the same amount of gas over a 15-year period. Reducing pad numbers with directional-drilling technology reduced surface disturbance area and impacts on spatially extensive habitats (48–96% of study area) such as sagebrush-obligate songbird habitat, elk winter range, and sagebrush core area. Impacts declined for spatially restricted mule deer migration corridors (24% of study area) and greater sage-grouse leks until energy infrastructure densities within corridors and near leks were similar to the initial landscape. Scenario simulations and tradeoff assessments such as illustrated in this study are intended to help decision-makers identify development designs that best achieve both energy and conservation goals.     

Mathematical Modeling and Numerical Algorithms for Simulation of Oil Pollution

This paper deals with the mathematical modeling and algorithms for the problem of oil pollution. For solving this task, we derive the adjoint problem for the advection–diffusion equation describing the propagation of oil slick after an accident, which we call the main problem. We prove a fundamental equality between the solutions of the main and the adjoint problems. Based on this equality, we propose a novel method for the identification of the pollution source location and the accident time of oil emission. This approach is illustrated on an example for an accident in the offshore of the central part of the Vietnamese coast. Numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Besides, the method is verified for 1D model of substance propagation.     

Application of System Dynamics on Shallow Multipurpose Artificial Lakes: A Case Study of Detention Pond at Tainan,Taiwan

This study designs a multipurpose urban shallow artificial lake, including water supply, flood detention, and water environment preservation. It is expected to not only preserve a healthy water environment but to also retain water conservation and flood detention. This study adopts system dynamics (SD) to analyze the relationship between different purposes of water resources utilization. Furthermore, different operation strategies effects can be simulated by SD through a proposed urban multipurpose shallow artificial lake system. The results demonstrate the dynamic effects of strategies managers propose such as demand analysis, inflow control, and water quality improvement in this case study for Taiwan. SD aids lake system prediction and understanding temporally in sequential planning for water supply, environmental preservation, and flood detention. The SD model will hopefully serve as a reference to study different features before artificial lakes constructing.