Arctic Tipping Points: Governance in Turbulent Times

Interacting forces of climate change and globalization are transforming the Arctic. Triggered by a non-linear shift in sea ice, this transformation has unleashed mounting interest in opportunities to exploit the region’s natural resources as well as growing concern about environmental, economic, and political issues associated with such efforts. This article addresses the implications of this transformation for governance, identifies limitations of existing arrangements, and explores changes needed to meet new demands. It advocates the development of an Arctic regime complex featuring flexibility across issues and adaptability over time along with an enhanced role for the Arctic Council both in conducting policy-relevant assessments and in promoting synergy in interactions among the elements of the emerging Arctic regime complex. The emphasis throughout is on maximizing the fit between the socioecological features of the Arctic and the character of the governance arrangements needed to steer the Arctic toward a sustainable future.     

Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.     

Tipping Elements in the Arctic Marine Ecosystem

The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.     

The role of a changing Arctic Ocean and climate for the biogeochemical cycling of dimethyl sulphide and carbon monoxide

Dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and carbon monoxide (CO) are climate-relevant trace gases that play key roles in the radiative budget of the Arctic atmosphere. Under global warming, Arctic sea ice retreats at an unprecedented rate, altering light penetration and biological communities, and potentially affect DMS and CO cycling in the Arctic Ocean. This could have socio-economic implications in and beyond the Arctic region. However, little is known about CO production pathways and emissions in this region and the future development of DMS and CO cycling. Here we summarize the current understanding and assess potential future changes of DMS and CO cycling in relation to changes in sea ice coverage, light penetration, bacterial and microalgal communities, pH and physical properties. We suggest that production of DMS and CO might increase with ice melting, increasing light availability and shifting phytoplankton community. Among others, policy measures should facilitate large-scale process studies, coordinated long term observations and modelling efforts to improve our current understanding of the cycling and emissions of DMS and CO in the Arctic Ocean and of global consequences.     

Climate change,future Arctic Sea ice,and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets

A significant share of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.     

Nitrous oxide and methane in a changing Arctic Ocean

Human activities are changing the Arctic environment at an unprecedented rate resulting in rapid warming, freshening, sea ice retreat and ocean acidification of the Arctic Ocean. Trace gases such as nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) play important roles in both the atmospheric reactivity and radiative budget of the Arctic and thus have a high potential to influence the region’s climate. However, little is known about how these rapid physical and chemical changes will impact the emissions of major climate-relevant trace gases from the Arctic Ocean. The combined consequences of these stressors present a complex combination of environmental changes which might impact on trace gas production and their subsequent release to the Arctic atmosphere. Here we present our current understanding of nitrous oxide and methane cycling in the Arctic Ocean and its relevance for regional and global atmosphere and climate and offer our thoughts on how this might change over coming decades.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01633-8.     

A synthesis of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycles under pressure from a dwindling cryosphere

The current downturn of the arctic cryosphere, such as the strong loss of sea ice, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and permafrost thaw, affects the marine and terrestrial carbon cycles in numerous interconnected ways. Nonetheless, processes in the ocean and on land have been too often considered in isolation while it has become increasingly clear that the two environments are strongly connected: Sea ice decline is one of the main causes of the rapid warming of the Arctic, and the flow of carbon from rivers into the Arctic Ocean affects marine processes and the air–sea exchange of CO₂. This review, therefore, provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycle, connections in between, and how this complex system is affected by climate change and a declining cryosphere. Ultimately, better knowledge of biogeochemical processes combined with improved model representations of ocean–land interactions are essential to accurately predict the development of arctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks.     

Monitoring a changing Arctic: Recent advancements in the study of sea ice microbial communities

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO₂ exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01658-z.     

Challenges of climate change: an Arctic perspective

Climate change is being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Arctic average temperature has risen at almost twice the rate as that of the rest of the world in the past few decades. Widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising permafrost temperatures present additional evidence of strong Arctic warming. These changes in the Arctic provide an early indication of the environmental and societal significance of global consequences. The Arctic also provides important natural resources to the rest of the world (such as oil, gas, and fish) that will be affected by climate change, and the melting of Arctic glaciers is one of the factors contributing to sea level rise around the globe. An acceleration of these climatic trends is projected to occur during this century, due to ongoing increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. These Arctic changes will, in turn, impact the planet as a whole.     

Tipping Points in the Arctic: Eyeballing or Statistical Significance?

Arctic ecosystems have experienced and are projected to experience continued large increases in temperature and declines in sea ice cover. It has been hypothesized that small changes in ecosystem drivers can fundamentally alter ecosystem functioning, and that this might be particularly pronounced for Arctic ecosystems. We present a suite of simple statistical analyses to identify changes in the statistical properties of data, emphasizing that changes in the standard error should be considered in addition to changes in mean properties. The methods are exemplified using sea ice extent, and suggest that the loss rate of sea ice accelerated by factor of ~5 in 1996, as reported in other studies, but increases in random fluctuations, as an early warning signal, were observed already in 1990. We recommend to employ the proposed methods more systematically for analyzing tipping points to document effects of climate change in the Arctic.     

Influence of diet and sea ice drift on organochlorine bioaccumulation in Arctic ice-associated amphipods

The drifting sea ice has been suggested as important in the transport and concentration of organic matter and pollutants in the Arctic. We collected sea ice-associated amphipods in the marginal ice zone north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait in September 1998 and 1999 to assess contaminant accumulation in ice-associated organisms. Organochlorine concentrations increased from the more herbivorous Apherusa glacialis to the more carnivorous Gammarus wilkitzkii and the more necrophagous Onisimus spp. The relative contribution of compound classes to the sum of organochlorines differed between the amphipod families, with a higher relative contribution of hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) in A. glacialis. The composition of the compound classes HCHs. chlordanes and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) was similar between the amphipod families, whereas the profiles of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) differed. The occurrence of organochlorines differed spatially, with higher alpha-HCH concentrations in amphipods from the Fram Strait in comparison with amphipods collected north of Svalbard. This could be related to the sea ice drift route, since sea ice in the Fram Strait had a drift route across the central Arctic Ocean, while the sea ice north of Svalbard had a western drift route to the sampling stations. Even though marine invertebrates have direct uptake by passive diffusion of contaminants across their gills. our results imply that the species' ecology such as diet is important in the bioaccumulation process of organic pollutants. In addition, the results show that sea ice drift route influences the concentrations of organochlorine pollutants in ice-associated organisms.     

"It's not that simple": A collaborative comparison of sea ice environments, their uses, observed changes, and adaptations in Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada

The Arctic environment, including sea ice, is changing. The impacts of these changes to Inuit and I?upiat ways of life vary from place to place, yet there are common themes as well. The study reported here involved an exchange of hunters, Elders, and others from Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada, as members of a larger research team that also included visiting scientists. Although the physical environments of Barrow and Clyde River are strikingly different, the uses of the marine environment by residents, including sea ice, had many common elements. In both locations, too, extensive changes have been observed in recent years, forcing local residents to respond in a variety of ways. Although generally in agreement or complementary to one another, scientific and indigenous knowledge of sea ice often reflect different perspectives and emphases. Making generalizations about impacts and responses is challenging and should therefore be approached with caution. Technology provides some potential assistance in adapting to changing sea ice, but by itself, it is insufficient and can sometimes have undesirable consequences. Reliable knowledge that can be applied under changing conditions is essential. Collaborative research and firsthand experience are critical to generating such new knowledge.     

Short-Run Allocation of Emissions Allowances and Long-Term Goals for Climate Policy

We summarize the latest results on the rapid changes that are occurring to Arctic sea ice thickness and extent, the reasons for them, and the methods being used to monitor the changing ice thickness. Arctic sea ice extent had been shrinking at a relatively modest rate of 3–4% per decade (annually averaged) but after 1996 this speeded up to 10% per decade and in summer 2007 there was a massive collapse of ice extent to a new record minimum of only 4.1 million km². Thickness has been falling at a more rapid rate (43% in the 25 years from the early 1970s to late 1990s) with a specially rapid loss of mass from pressure ridges. The summer 2007 event may have arisen from an interaction between the long-term retreat and more rapid thinning rates. We review thickness monitoring techniques that show the greatest promise on different spatial and temporal scales, and for different purposes. We show results from some recent work from submarines, and speculate that the trends towards retreat and thinning will inevitably lead to an eventual loss of all ice in summer, which can be described as a ‘tipping point’ in that the former situation, of an Arctic covered with mainly multi-year ice, cannot be retrieved.     

Biogeochemical consequences of a changing Arctic shelf seafloor ecosystem

Unprecedented and dramatic transformations are occurring in the Arctic in response to climate change, but academic, public, and political discourse has disproportionately focussed on the most visible and direct aspects of change, including sea ice melt, permafrost thaw, the fate of charismatic megafauna, and the expansion of fisheries. Such narratives disregard the importance of less visible and indirect processes and, in particular, miss the substantive contribution of the shelf seafloor in regulating nutrients and sequestering carbon. Here, we summarise the biogeochemical functioning of the Arctic shelf seafloor before considering how climate change and regional adjustments to human activities may alter its biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, including ecosystem function, carbon burial, or nutrient recycling. We highlight the importance of the Arctic benthic system in mitigating climatic and anthropogenic change and, with a focus on the Barents Sea, offer some observations and our perspectives on future management and policy.     

Shine a light: Under-ice light and its ecological implications in a changing Arctic Ocean

The Arctic marine ecosystem is shaped by the seasonality of the solar cycle, spanning from 24-h light at the sea surface in summer to 24-h darkness in winter. The amount of light available for under-ice ecosystems is the result of different physical and biological processes that affect its path through atmosphere, snow, sea ice and water. In this article, we review the present state of knowledge of the abiotic (clouds, sea ice, snow, suspended matter) and biotic (sea ice algae and phytoplankton) controls on the underwater light field. We focus on how the available light affects the seasonal cycle of primary production (sympagic and pelagic) and discuss the sensitivity of ecosystems to changes in the light field based on model simulations. Lastly, we discuss predicted future changes in under-ice light as a consequence of climate change and their potential ecological implications, with the aim of providing a guide for future research.     

The Black Carbon Story: Early History and New Perspectives

A number of recent studies have suggested that black carbon (BC), the light-absorbing fraction of soot, is next to CO₂ one of the strongest contributors to the global climate change. BC heats the air, darkens the snow and ice surfaces and could contribute to the melting of Arctic ice, snowpacks, and glaciers. Although soot is the oldest known pollutant its importance in climate modification has only been recently recognized. In this article, we trace the historical developments over about three decades that changed the view of the role of BC in the environment, from a pollutant of marginal importance to one of the main climate change agents. We also discuss some of the reasons for the initial lack of interest in BC and the subsequent rigorous research activity on the role of aerosols in climate change.     

Nutrient pathways and their susceptibility to past and future change in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean

Climate change is altering nutrient cycling within the Arctic Ocean, having knock-on effects to Arctic ecosystems. Primary production in the Arctic is principally nitrogen-limited, particularly in the western Pacific-dominated regions where denitrification exacerbates nitrogen loss. The nutrient status of the eastern Eurasian Arctic remains under debate. In the Barents Sea, primary production has increased by 88% since 1998. To support this rapid increase in productivity, either the standing stock of nutrients has been depleted, or the external nutrient supply has increased. Atlantic water inflow, enhanced mixing, benthic nitrogen cycling, and land–ocean interaction have the potential to alter the nutrient supply through addition, dilution or removal. Here we use new datasets from the Changing Arctic Ocean program alongside historical datasets to assess how nitrate and phosphate concentrations may be changing in response to these processes. We highlight how nutrient dynamics may continue to change, why this is important for regional and international policy-making and suggest relevant research priorities for the future.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01673-0.     

Building resilience and adaptation to manage Arctic change

Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so.     

Communal visual histories to detect environmental change in northern areas: Examples of emerging North American and Eurasian practices

This article explores the pioneering potential of communal visual-optic histories which are recorded, painted, documented, or otherwise expressed. These materials provide collective meanings of an image or visual material within a specific cultural group. They potentially provide a new method for monitoring and documenting changes to ecosystem health and species distribution, which can effectively inform society and decision makers of Arctic change. These visual histories can be positioned in a continuum that extends from rock art to digital photography. They find their expressions in forms ranging from images to the oral recording of knowledge and operate on a given cultural context. For monitoring efforts in the changing boreal zone and Arctic, a respectful engagement with visual histories can reveal emerging aspects of change. The examples from North America and case studies from Eurasia in this article include Inuit sea ice observations, Yu’pik visual traditions of masks, fish die-offs in a sub-boreal catchment area, permafrost melt in the Siberian tundra and early, first detection of a scarabaeid beetle outbreak, a Southern species in the Skolt Sámi area. The pros and cons of using these histories and their reliability are reviewed.     

Declining extent of open-water refugia for top predators in Baffin Bay and adjacent waters

Global climate change is expected to severely impact Arctic ecosystems, yet predictions of impacts are complicated by region-specific patterns and nonuniform trends. Twentyfour open-water overwintering areas (or "microhabitats") were identified to be of particular importance for eight seabird and marine mammal species in the eastern Canadian High Arctic and Baffin Bay. Localized trends in the available fraction of open-water were examined in March during 1979--2001, derived from approximate sea ice concentrations from satellite-based microwave telemetry. Declines in the fraction of open-water were identified at microhabitats in Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, coastal West Greenland, and Lancaster Sound. Increases in open-water were observed in Hudson Bay, Hudson Strait, and Foxe Basin. The biological importance of each microhabitat was examined based on species distribution and abundance. Potential consequences of reduced open-water for top marine predators include impacts on foraging efficiency and oxygen and prey availability.