危险品泄漏事故后动态路网应急疏散研究

在建立以最短车辆总疏散时间为目标的应急车辆疏散模型过程中,考虑路网上的车流是时变的,以动态交通流分配理论对应急车辆流进行优化分配。基于计算的复杂性和粒子群算法(PSO)的优点,采用PSO对模型进行求解。算例试验结果表明,优化后的方案能够减轻整个疏散车辆的拥堵程度,为应急管理部门决策提供理论支持。     

基于OREMS的城市应急交通疏散研究

以天津奥林匹克中心地区在突发事件下的疏散为例来研究城市中的应急交通疏散。由GIS提供天津奥林匹克中心地区的道路和人口数据,利用美国国家橡树岭实验室为美国联邦公路局开发的应急交通疏散仿真软件OREMS(Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System)对该地区的路网进行建模,并对人为交通控制策略下的疏散进行仿真模拟,得出疏散过程中疏散车辆数随时间的变化、瓶颈节点和路段以及完成疏散所需的时间等疏散效能参数,从而为制定应急策略提供相应的参考。     

事故车辆影响下的城市道路交通仿真研究

为研究事故车辆影响下城市道路交通的特征，构建考虑车辆抢道行为的元胞自动机交通流模型，研究给定冲突区域长度下不同进车率和不同事故持续时间对城市道路交通流的影响。研究结果表明:事故车辆会诱发交通瓶颈，对城市交通产生显著干扰并形成拥堵带，且拥堵带向事故车辆上游传递。不同事故持续时间下交通流演化存在差异，道路平均车流量、车流平均密度随着事故持续时间的增加而增加，车辆平均速度随之减小。当道路中车辆较少（pin=0.3）且事故持续时间达到15 min时，交通处于严重拥堵状态；当道路中车辆较多（pin=0.5）、事故持续时间达到5 min时，交通即处于严重拥堵状态。研究结果可为优化城市交通事故处理机制提供依据。     

城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究*

为量化评价城市道路在人员疏散过程中存在的风险,以支持城市道路规划,以及有效开展应急疏散管理,提出1种城市道路的人员疏散风险评价方法。该方法设定多种影响因素,构建道路疏散风险评价函数,并结合临界簇模型,运用实时交通态势数据与动态人口数据,评估不同时间的道路疏散风险。以上海市外环线内区域为研究区,开展道路疏散风险综合评价与突发事件情景下的道路疏散风险评价。结果表明:该方法可以有效综合多种影响因素,空间量化表达道路的人员疏散风险。评价结果能够为城市道路设施规划提供帮助,为提升城市应急疏散管理效率,降低事故的伤亡与损失提供决策依据。     

核电厂核事故应急疏散研究

根据我国法规、标准与美国核管委对核电厂核事故应急疏散的要求,考虑我国核电厂特殊的厂址条件与社会环境,分析核事故应急疏散的可行性。通过应急疏散行为研究、厂区的交通需求估计和路网分析,对不同情境,考虑核事故应急疏散的特殊问题,分别采用人工容量分析与宏观仿真模拟得到应急疏散时间。针对某核电厂,给出核事故应急疏散分析的一般步骤、方法与计算结果。对宏观仿真模型的主要参数进行灵敏度分析,找出影响应急疏散时间的主要因素,提出缩短应急疏散时间的针对性措施。     

我国区域道路交通安全形势对比与影响因素分析

根据2007年的政府统计数据,将全国划分为4个社会经济发展区域,并对比各区域道路交通的发展状况与安全形势,然后运用SPSS统计软件分析道路交通安全评价参数与社会经济发展水平之间的相关性。发现社会经济发展梯次靠前的区域,其道路交通与安全状况也相对较好;GDP、人口、机动车保有量、机动车驾驶证普及率、道路条件和交通运输规模等因素分别对交通事故的死亡人数、万车死亡率、亿元GDP死亡率和百公里道路死亡率等指标具有显著影响。针对各区域的道路交通安全现状,必须进一步加快交通基础与安全设施建设,建立和完善交通事故紧急救援体系,加强交通安全宣传、教育、管理以及区域间的交流与合作。     

厂房内H_2连续泄漏扩散的模拟分析

利用计算流体动力学软件Fluent对厂房内易燃易爆气体H2泄漏扩散过程进行了数值模拟,研究H2连续泄漏扩散规律。计算结果表明,厂房内H2泄漏一定时间后扩散将达到稳定,室内H2浓度将不再变化;根据室内H2浓度分布规律,得出H2泄漏报警装置应设在泄漏口正对墙壁上,且厂房的排风口应开设在H2钢瓶喷射方向上的屋顶处;结合H2的毒性级别和爆炸极限,划分该厂房为紧急防爆疏散区,必须在泄漏初期进行紧急人员疏散并做好防火防爆措施。研究结果为厂房内H2泄漏事故应急救援、泄漏报警装置及排风口的位置设置提供重要技术支持和理论依据。     

考虑街区尺寸的应急救援路径选择仿真研究

为分析街区尺寸对应急救援车辆行程时间的影响,基于小（120 m）、中（264 m）、大（440 m）3种典型街区尺寸,将救援车辆行程时间分为街区内、外2部分,以总行程时间最小为目标,构建基于背景流量水平的救援车辆路径选择仿真模型。设置4种救援场景,分别求解各救援场景在不同街区尺寸下的最短路径时间、冗余度及复杂度。结果表明:街区尺寸对街区内、外部救援时间均有影响,而前者在救援路径距离较短、街区尺寸较大的路网中占据较大比例（可达50%以上）;救援路径包含路段的流量较小时,中、大街区尺寸路网表现类似,而高流量下大尺寸具备更优的救援时间;街区尺寸越小,救援路径冗余度与复杂度均越大。     

Evaluation of the effectiveness of traffic calming measures on vehicle speeds and pedestrian injury severity in Ghana

Objectives: Each year, pedestrian injuries constitute over 40% of all road casualty deaths and up to 60% of all urban road casualty deaths in Ghana. This is as a result of the overwhelming dependence on walking as a mode of transport in an environment where there are high vehicular speeds and inadequate pedestrian facilities. The objectives of this research were to establish the (1) impact of traffic calming measures on vehicle speeds and (2) association between traffic calming measures and pedestrian injury severity in built-up areas in Ghana.

Method: Vehicle speeds were unobtrusively measured in 38 selected settlements, including 19 with traffic calming schemes and 19 without. The study design used in this research was a matched case–control. A regression analysis compared case and control casualties using a conditional logistic regression.

Results: Generally, the mean vehicle speeds and the proportion of vehicles exceeding the 50?km/h speed limit were significantly lower in settlements that have traffic calming measures compared to towns without any traffic calming measures. Additionally, the proportion of motorists who exceeded the speed limit was 30% or less in settlements that have traffic calming devices and the proportion who exceeded the speed limit was 60% or more in towns without any traffic calming measures. The odds of pedestrian fatality was significantly higher in settlements that have no traffic calming devices compared to those that have (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.09–4.43). The protective effects of a traffic calming scheme that has a speed table was notably higher than those where there were no speed tables.

Conclusion: It was clearly evident that traffic calming devices reduce vehicular speeds and, thus, the incidence and severity of pedestrian injuries in built-up areas in Ghana. However, the fact that they are deployed on arterial roads is increasingly becoming a road safety concern. Given the emerging safety challenges associated with speed calming measures, we recommend that their use be restricted to residential streets but not on arterial roads. Long-term solutions for improving pedestrian safety proposed herein include bypassing settlements along the highways to reduce pedestrians’ exposure to traffic collisions and adopting a modern way of enforcement such as evidence-based laser monitoring in conjunction with a punishment regime that utilizes the demerit points system.     

Stability and safety evaluation of mixed traffic flow with connected automated vehicles on expressways

Introduction: Connected automated vehicles (CAVs) technology has deeply integrated advanced technologies in various fields, providing an effective way to improve traffic safety. However, it would take time for vehicles on the road to vehicles from human-driven vehicles (HDVs) progress to CAVs. Moreover, the Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) vehicle would degrade into the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) vehicle due to communication failure. Method: First, the different car-following models are used to capture characteristics of different types of vehicles (e.g., HDVs, CACC, and ACC). Second, the stability of mixed traffic flow is analyzed under different penetration rates of CAVs. Then, multiple safety measures, such as standard deviation of vehicle speed (SD), time exposed rear-end crash risk (TER), time exposed time-to-collision (TET), and time-integrated time-to-collision (TIT) are used to evaluate the safety of mixed traffic flow on expressways. Finally, the sensitivity of traffic demand, the threshold of time-to-collision (TTC), and the parameters of car-following models are analyzed based on a numerical simulation. Results: The results show that the ACC vehicle has no significant impact on the SD of mixed traffic flows, but it leads to the deterioration of TET and TIT, making the reduction proportion of TER slower. When the penetration rate exceeds 50%, the increase of CACC vehicles reduces traffic safety risks significantly. Furthermore, the increase in traffic demand and car-following parameters worsens traffic safety on expressways. Conclusions: This paper suggests that the CACC vehicles degenerate into ACC vehicles due to communication failure, and the safety risk of mixed traffic flow increases significantly. Practical Applications: The application of CAVs can improve the stability and safety of traffic flow.     

基于多智能体建模方法的人群应急疏散模型构建研究——以腾龙芳烃（漳州）有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故疏散为例*

为从更微观角度分析人群疏散过程中疏散行为及路网设计对疏散效果的影响,基于腾龙芳烃（漳州）有限公司“4·6”爆炸着火重大事故,构建多智能体人群应急疏散模型,模拟人群中个体群组、惯性、就近、从众、信息传播的行为决策及相互交互影响。结果表明:群组行为会严重影响应急疏散效果,在疏散路网两端避难所附近会出现明显拥堵现象,在疏散路网设计和避难所选择时,应尽可能避免出现极端汇流路段或节点;在应急培训中,应告知群众减少群组行为。研究结果可为人群应急疏散提供借鉴。     

Mortality from road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city: A 20-year analysis in Shenzhen, 1994–2013

Objective: This study aimed to describe the trends of motorization and mortality rates from road traffic accidents and examine their associations in a rapidly urbanizing city in China, Shenzhen.

Methods: Using data from the Shenzhen Deaths Registry between 1994 and 2013, we calculated the annual mortality rates of road traffic accidents, in addition to the age- and sex-specific mortality rates and their annual percentage changes (APCs) for the period of 2000–2013. We also examined the associations between mortality rate of road traffic accidents and traffic growth with Spearman's rank correlation analysis and a log-linear model derived from Smeed's law.

Results: A total of 20,196 deaths due to road traffic accidents, including 14,391 (71.3%) male deaths and 5,805 (28.7%) female deaths, were recorded in Shenzhen from 1994 to 2013. The annual mortality rates in terms of deaths per population and deaths per vehicle changed in similar patterns, demonstrating an increase since 1994 and peaking in 1997, followed by a steady decrease thereafter. The decrease in mortality was faster in individuals aged 20 year or older compared to those younger than 20 years. The mortality rates in term of deaths per population were positively correlated with the total number of vehicles per kilometer of road but negatively correlated with the motorization rate in term of vehicles per population. The estimated model for deaths due to road traffic accidents in relation to the total population and the number of registered vehicles was ln (deaths/10,000 vehicles) = ?1.902 × ln (vehicles/population) ? 1.961. The coefficient was statistically significant (P < .001) and the coefficient of determination was 0.966, indicating a good model fit.

Conclusions: We described a generally decreasing trend in the mortality rates of road traffic accidents in a rapidly urbanizing Chinese city based observations in the 20-year period from 1994 to 2013. The decreased mortality rate may be explained by the expansion of road network construction, improved road safety regulations and management, as well as more accessible ambulance services in recent years. Nevertheless, road traffic accidents remain a universal problem of great public health concern in the whole population.     

Using consequence – based hazard zone assessment for effective evacuation planning of vulnerable settlements along hazmat transport corridors through industrial city of Surat in western India

Following a toxic hazmat release, decisions need to be made vis-a-vis a safe evacuation distance for population along the transportation route, or whether to shelter-in-place if there is insufficient time to conduct an evacuation. The first responder may have to take these decisions through a quick estimation of the Initial Isolation Zone (IIZ) and protective action distances based on assumed rate of releases. Real-time evacuation planning models could be used for effective evacuation purposes. However, factors that usually were taken into account include weather conditions, population density, time of day, and uncertainty about the chemicals involved and/or the accumulating concentrations in public areas. Emergency planning including evacuation in India is generally in line with UNEP's APELL (Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level) methodology. However, quantitative risk based assessment is catching up particularly in large industrial zones. The paper highlights a case study of the evaluation of identified seven critical evacuation planning zones along three highway study routes in and around the industrial city of Surat in western India. The elapsed time after a release is estimated through ALOHA and evacuation travel time estimates are made for each zone. For identified scenarios, evacuation of IIZ, generally comprising of road side population, is effectively possible in six out of seven identified emergency planning zones except in zone-7, where certain people would still be exposed, as full evacuation may not be achieved. However, shelter-in-place would be advisable for population residing in permanent settlements within the protective action zone.     

基于车辆事故等级分类的紧急呼救系统研究

基于交通事故紧急救援的现状,阐述建立车辆事故紧急呼救系统的新需求,提出了开发基于车辆事故严重等级分类的紧急呼救系统需要实现的功能;应用车辆碰撞安全性理论和研究成果、导航定位技术及通信技术,设计了基于事故严重等级分类的车辆事故紧急呼救决策流程;探讨车辆事故自动检测和等级分类及紧急救援的实施方案,以实现车辆事故紧急自动呼救,使车辆和伤员得到及时高效的紧急救助。     

基于风险评价的核应急分区疏散规划*

为保障核事故应急疏散的时效性和安全性,降低核事故损失,基于核辐射时空分布特征,对疏散集中点和疏散路网进行风险评价,提出分区疏散组织策略,结合行政区划法,完成核电站场外疏散区域划分;将总暴露风险作为优化目标,构建基于元胞传输的分区疏散规划模型,并以我国某沿海核电站为研究对象,验证分区疏散方案可行性。研究结果表明:考虑核辐射风险后的分区疏散方案,能够有效提高疏散效率,保障公众安全,降低疏散时间和暴露风险,优化疏散期间交通状况。研究结果可为核应急疏散组织工作提供参考。     

城市应急物资配送路径支路限流模型研究*

为科学、及时、合理地对城市应急物资进行调度,综合考虑突发事件发生后道路的实时通行状况,通过改变道路交通的交叉口限流以及物资运输路径,以最小化配送时间和成本为目标,构建1套完整的应急交通管制模型,使得所需的应急物资在被要求的最短时间窗内抵达受灾点;利用遗传算法进行编码设计求解模型,并通过仿真分析,设计配送路径的交叉口的支路限流方案;通过实例对所构建模型进行验证。结果表明:在日常道路动态变化情况下,该模型既能实现应急物资配送路径在支路限流下的交通协同方案;又可减少应急物资配送的时间成本,满足最短时间窗要求,使整个应急物流体系更加敏捷可靠。     

高速公路转换区严重冲突识别与分析

为深入探究高速公路改扩建转换区发生严重冲突的原因,使用高精度雷达采集单车实时状态数据,对单车区间初速度与加速度进行K-means聚类组合.基于聚类组合内的冲突率与路段事故率,采用Pearson系数法确定车辆的严重冲突阈值.融合转换区单车、交通流和道路因素建立二项Logistic模型,分析严重冲突因素的影响程度.结果表明...     

易燃易爆危险品道路运输火灾事故应急区域的确定方法

从消防监管的角度给出了道路运输易燃易爆危险品的火灾危险性分级标准,分析了典型泄漏事故后果场景和常见的泄漏规模类型.介绍了美国消防协会NFPA471、应急响应手册ERG2008危险品运输事故初期区域的确定方法,并提出了基于影响半径的危险品道路运输火灾事故现场应急区域和人员疏散范围的确定方法.提出对于易燃易爆危险品道路运输事故应急区域的确定,在初期可优先采用ERG 2008提供的初期隔离距离与防护距离进行先期处置,然后根据运输危险品的类型、运输量和影响区人员总数进行定量评估分析,以确定适当的应急区域范围.依据运输道路场所环境和事故场景特点,快速而合理的确定事故应急隔离区和疏散区,可较科学地应对突发性灾难事故,采取快速应急响应措施,优化消防警力配备.该文研究提出的方法和研究结论,可为危险品道路运输消防应急力量优化调度,现场指挥员采取有效措施开展抢险救援行动提供技术支持,有利于现场事故应急处置和人员快速安全疏散.     

Examination of the severity of two-lane highway traffic barrier crashes using the mixed logit model

IntroductionVehicles in transport sometimes leave the travel lane and encroach onto natural or artificial objects on the roadsides. These types of crashes are called run-off the road crashes, which account for a large proportion of fatalities and severe crashes to vehicle occupants. In the United States, there are about one million such crashes, with roadside features leading to one third of all road fatalities. Traffic barriers could be installed to keep vehicles on the roadways and to prevent vehicles from colliding with obstacles such as trees, boulder, and walls. The installation of traffic barriers would be warranted if the severity of colliding with the barrier would be less severe than colliding with other fix objects on the sides of the roadway. However, injuries and fatalities do occur when vehicle collide with traffic barriers. A comprehensive analysis of traffic barrier features is lacking due to the absence of traffic barrier features data. Previous research has focused on simulation studies or only a general evaluation of traffic barriers, without accounting for different traffic barrier features.MethodThis study is conducted using an extensive traffic barrier features database for the purpose of investigating the impact of different environmental and traffic barrier geometry on this type of crash severity. This study only included data related to two-lane undivided roadway systems, which did not involve median barrier crashes. Crash severity is modeled using a mixed binary logistic regression model in which some parameters are fixed and some are random.ResultsThe results indicated that the effects of traffic barrier height, traffic barrier offset, and shoulder width should not be separated, but rather considered as interactions that impact crash severity. Rollover, side slope height, alcohol involvement, road surface conditions, and posted speed limit are some factors that also impact the severity of these crashes. The effects of gender, truck traffic count, and time of a day were found to be best modeled with random parameters in this study. The effects of these risk factors are discussed in this paper.Practical applicationsResults from this study could provide new guidelines for the design of traffic barriers based upon the identified roadway and traffic barrier characteristics.     

Situational characteristics of fatal pedestrian accidents involving vehicles traveling at low speeds in Japan

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the situational characteristics of fatal pedestrian accidents involving vehicles traveling at low speeds in Japan. We focused on vehicles with 4 or more wheels. Such characteristics included daytime or nighttime conditions, road type, vehicle behaviors preceding the accident, and vehicle impact locations.

Methods: Pedestrian fatality data on vehicle–pedestrian accidents were obtained from the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis of Japan (ITARDA) from 2005 to 2014. Nine vehicle classifications were considered: Trucks with gross vehicle weight (GVW) ≥7.5 tons and <7.5 tons, buses, box vans, minivans, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), sedans, light passenger cars (LPCs), and light cargo vans (LCVs). We compared the situational daytime or nighttime conditions, road type, vehicle behaviors preceding the accident, and vehicle impact locations for accident-involved vehicles traveling at low and higher speeds across all vehicle types.

Results: The results indicate that pedestrian fatalities involving vehicles traveling at low speeds occurred more often under daytime conditions across all vehicle types. At signalized intersections, the relative proportions of pedestrian fatalities were significantly higher when vehicles were traveling at low speed, except when the accidents involved box vans or SUVs. Similarly, when vehicles turned right, the relative proportions of pedestrian fatalities were significantly higher when vehicles traveling at low speed were involved across all vehicle types. In terms of the frontal right vehicle impact location, the relative proportions of pedestrian fatalities were significantly higher when trucks with GVW ≥7.5 tons or <7.5 tons, sedans, or LCVs traveling at low speed were involved.

Conclusions: The situational characteristics of fatal pedestrian accidents involving vehicles traveling at low speeds identified in this study can guide targeted development of new traffic safety regulations or technologies specific to vehicle–pedestrian interactions at low vehicle travel speeds (i.e., driver alert devices or automated emergency braking systems). Ultimately, these developments can improve pedestrian safety by reducing the frequency or severity of vehicle–pedestrian accidents for vehicles turning right at intersections and/or reducing the number of resultant pedestrian fatalities.