典型发达国家适应气候变化资金机制及对中国的启示

气候变化是全人类面临的严峻挑战,我国受到气候变化的不利影响更为显著,加快采取雄心勃勃的适应气候变化行动显得尤为重要,但资金机制一直是我国适应进程中的主要障碍,亟须借鉴国际经验构建完善适应气候变化的资金机制。基于此,本文首先简要分析国际适应气候变化资金机制的基本情况,然后选取适应进程较为完善的美、英、德、日等典型发达国家,分别从适应政策体系、国内适应资金和国际援助资金等三个方面梳理总结各国适应气候变化资金机制,最后分析我国适应气候变化资金机制及存在的问题,并提出对我国适应气候变化资金机制的启示。研究发现,《联合国气候变化框架公约》及其气候变化国际谈判进程是各国推进适应气候变化资金机制的主要动因,发达国家重视适应政策的法制化,但政策力度和运行模式有所不同,公共部门是各国适应资金的主要来源,私人资金潜力尚待挖掘,国际气候援助注重减缓与适应并重,但援助力度有待加强。未来我国应从完善适应气候变化顶层设计、建立适应气候变化资金保障机制、提高适应气候援助力度、加强国际交流与合作等方面完善我国适应气候变化资金机制。     

Planning for global environmental change in Bangkok's informal settlements

Government agencies in cities across Asia recognise that municipalities must take steps to adapt to projected climate changes if people and places are to be kept above water. This paper focuses on planning for climate change in Bangkok because it ranks among the top 10 port cities vulnerable to climate change related flooding. It is also understood that the most devastating impacts of climate change will be suffered by the city's most vulnerable residents: the poor. Not only do impoverished people occupy physically vulnerable space, such as riverbanks, but they are also the least equipped to recover from the disruption of their livelihoods.

Several scholars have identified “institutional traps” that prevent the Thai government from successfully aiding poor and marginalised flood victims in the past. These include poor coordination, lack of monitoring and evaluation, rigidity, crisis management and elite capture. Lebel, Manuta, and Garden (2011, 56) Lebel, L., J.B. Manuta, and P. Garden. 2011. “Institutional Traps and Vulnerability to Changes in Climate and Flood Regimes in Thailand.” Regional Environmental Change 11 (1): 45–58.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] pose the crucial question: “How have individuals – from local community leaders through to national level politicians and bureaucrats – successfully influenced policy and programmes to avoid institutional traps and improve adaptive capacities to climate change?”

In this paper, we begin to address this question through examining emergent methods of “community based adaptation” and reviewing case studies of adaptation action from other vulnerable communities in the Global South. These lessons – such as overcoming institutional rigidity and avoiding elite capture – are important for Bangkok and other cities in the Global South that face many different challenges by global environmental change.     

Adapting cities to climate change – exploring the flood risk management role of green infrastructure landscapes

There is now an emerging sense of the scope and nature of response that can be implemented at building and neighbourhood scales to help adapt cities and urban areas to the changing climate. In comparison, the role of larger natural and semi-natural landscapes that surround and permeate cities is less well understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this paper outlines two case studies that describe and map the flood risk management functions offered by green infrastructure landscapes situated within the Urban Mersey Basin in North West England. The case studies establish that areas potentially exposed to flooding can be located at some distance, and within different jurisdictions, from upstream areas where the flood hazard may be generated and could be moderated via functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes. This raises planning and governance challenges connected to supporting and enhancing flood risk management functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes.     

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON U.S. WATER SUPPLIES1

ABSTRACT: A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

Decision support for adaptive action – assessing the potential of geographic visualization

This study explores the role of geographic visualization for supporting the implementation of climate change adaptation. Interviews and group discussions with planners and decision makers indicate that geographic visualization bears primary potential for communicative purposes. In order to respond to analytical needs a high level of interactivity including the exploration of background data and the ability to link the tools with own databases were some of the key requirements made by the participants. The study concludes that more than better climate predictions, awareness and involvement may be precisely what is needed to narrow the implementation gap in climate change adaptation.     

Climate adaptation management and institutional erosion: insights from a major Canadian port

This paper performs an institutional analysis of the adaptation to climate change by ports, through a case study of the port of Vancouver, Canada. While previous literature has demonstrated the value of informal institutions for filling gaps left by formal institutions, the role of failed informal institutions has received less attention. Our analysis reveals how, in the case of an unprecedented challenge like climate adaptation, relying on informal institutions with less agency can actually erode the strength of existing institutions in a form of negative institutional plasticity. In this case, emerging polycentric governance was unsuccessful, unable to construct clearly demarcated responsibilities due to impedance by the path dependence of the current federalist system. The latter works well for traditional infrastructure investments with a closed pool of stakeholders, but not for ports where multiple scales of embeddedness, both horizontally and vertically, produce a collective action problem with no mechanism for resolution.     

Do the poor have what they need to adapt to climate change? A case study of Nepal

Nepal's geographical landscape of plains, hills, and mountains exposes it to severe climatic conditions. Out of the three regions, the plain, also called Terai, has the greatest risk of flooding, especially during the monsoon season when heavy precipitation coincides with snow and glacier melting from the mountains and hills. In recent years, greater water availability has increased the frequency of flooding, destroying farms, livestock, and infrastructure, hence, reducing agricultural productivity and disrupting economic activities. What makes Nepal a unique case study for climate change is its richness in water resources, propensity to flood, the percentage of poor people living in the flood prone region, and their dependency on natural resources. The lessons drawn can help when formulating pro-poor adaptation policies for other Asian and many developing countries that are as diverse, poor, and agrarian as Nepal. Using data collected through survey interviews, the study examines the ability of the poor to adapt to climate change. The study also explores the adaptive capacity of communities in the Koshi Tappu area, by examining whether or not they have the required capital assets (human, social, natural, physical, and financial capital) to remain resilient in the face of continuous climate events impacts.