洪水灾害风险评价研究综述

洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一,带来了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。洪水灾害风险评价是科学有效地防洪减灾的前提和基础。文章对洪水灾害风险相关概念进行了界定,从气象、水文水力、社会经济、遥感与GIS和土地利用5个方面对洪水灾害风险评价的常用方法进行了评述,并列出了常用的评价因子。最后指出了未来研究的可能发展方向。     

Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs

Hazard mitigation planners claim that foresighted present actions and investments produce significant future benefits. However, they have difficulty in supporting their claims, since previously their evidence typically was derived from individual case studies. Constituents and decision makers are often sceptical, believing that individual cases are either inapplicable to their situation or non-randomly selected to support a particular view. Planners need objective evidence based on a large body of experience to support the case for mitigation. Such is the unique contribution of a recent U.S. study that found that each dollar spent in three federal natural hazard mitigation grant programs (the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Project Impact, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program) saves society an average of $4 in future avoided losses. Complementing the aggregate benefit-cost analysis with community-based evaluations, the study yielded insights on how planners can improve long-term community resilience in the face of extreme events. Valuable lessons for mitigation planners and policy makers emerged: the need to consider a wide variety of losses, the importance of mixing qualitative with quantitative analysis, the value of averaging results over a large number of projects, and the need to more explicitly address social issues and data collection in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to cope with twenty-first century hazards.     

Mitigating the consequences of extreme events on strategic facilities: evaluation of volcanic and seismic risk affecting the Caspian oil and gas pipelines in the Republic of Georgia

In this work we identify and quantify new seismic and volcanic risks threatening the strategic Caspian oil and gas pipelines through the Republic of Georgia, in the vicinity of the recent Abuli Samsari Volcanic Ridge, and evaluate risk reduction measures, mitigation measures, and monitoring. As regards seismic risk, we identified a major, NW-SE trending strike-slip fault; based on the analysis of fault planes along this major transcurrent structure, an about N-S trend of the maximum, horizontal compressive stress (σ1) was determined, which is in good agreement with data instrumentally derived after the 1986, M 5.6 Paravani earthquake and its aftershock. Particularly notable is the strong alignment of volcanic vents along an about N-S trend that suggests a magma rising controlled by the about N-S-directed σ1. The original pipeline design included mitigation measures for seismic risk and other geohazards, including burial of the pipeline for its entire length, increased wall thickness, block valve spacing near recognized hazards, and monitoring of known landslide hazards. However, the design did not consider volcanic risk or the specific seismic hazards revealed by this study. The result of our analysis is that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, as well as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum South Caucasian natural gas pipeline (SCP) were designed in such a way that they significantly reduce the risk posed by the newly-identified geohazards in the vicinity of the Abuli-Samsari Ridge. No new measures are recommended for the pipeline itself as a result of this study. However, since the consequences of long-term shut-down would be very damaging to the economies of Western Europe, we conclude that the regionally significant BTC and SCP warrant greater protections, described in the final section of or work. The overall objective of our effort is to present the results in a matrix framework that allows the technical information to be used further in the decision-making process, with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in the final decision. This approach is applicable to the study of risks in other pipeline systems.     

莆田市气象灾害及减灾对策研究

根据近17年的莆田市气候影响评价资料,结合实地调查,对莆田市台风、暴雨、冰雹、干旱、寒潮等主要气象灾害的基本特点进行了分析。研究表明,近17年莆田市危害最大的气象灾害是台风灾害,其次为洪涝灾害,揭示了几种主要气象灾害之间的相互关系,并提出相应的减灾对策。     

Adaptation planning for sea level rise: a study of US coastal cities

Sea level rise (SLR) is expected, even without greenhouse gas emissions. As SLR is inevitable, adapting to its impacts has received increasing attention, and local governments are the key actors in this emerging agenda. This study indicates that adaptation planning for SLR should be integrated into two local major planning mechanisms in the United States: the local comprehensive plans and hazard mitigation plans. By evaluating 36 plans from 15 US coastal cities that are considered at high risk and vulnerable to rising sea levels, the results demonstrate that SLR is widely identified, but the overall quality of the plans to address it requires significant improvement. A detailed table of selected plans' characteristics is also provided as a lens on how localities tackle this challenging issue. The paper concludes with planning suggestions for coastal communities to better adapt to SLR.     

Place,human agency and community resilience – considerations for public health management of smoke from prescribed burning

Prescribed burning is now a widely accepted bushfire hazard management strategy. While evidence points to reduced levels of public health harm compared to severe bushfire, smoke created by planned burns remains a community concern with need for evidence-based public health management. Findings are presented from an Australian study of community experiences of prescribed burns, associated smoke, and public health communications. We find that “place” influences how information is received and used for the management of the effects of planned burns; and that this is significant for human agency and community resilience. We provide recommendations for public health management.     

Sustainable land-use planning: revitalising a flood prone office park

This paper describes an applied research project that used a sustainable land-use planning approach to examine flood hazard mitigation alternatives in a 536-acre developed office park complex. A watershed-wide assessment including floodplain remapping and modelling of low-impact and large stormwater improvements throughout the upper watershed revealed limited impact on reducing flooding downstream in the environs of the office park during large storms. Thus emphasis had to be given to recommending retroactive sustainable land-use development actions such as relocating buildings and roadways out of the 100-year floodplain, which involves creating a mixed-use overlay district on high elevations, and restoring the floodplain.     

Community resilience to natural disasters in the informal settlements in Mwanza City,Tanzania

The impacts of natural disasters on communities living in hazard prone areas are wide ranging and complex. In Mwanza, steep slopes, rocky hills and river valleys are inhabited by society's poorest people. These areas are prone to natural disasters. Residents have accumulated coping mechanisms for disaster risks and impact reduction. We combine spatial data, household surveys and data from focus groups to identify and rank areas based on their exposure to major disasters. We also examine household and communal mitigation efforts in relation to these disasters. Most areas of the city are exposed to at least one of the natural disasters studied. Pre- and post-disaster risk reduction measures are influenced by the site of homesteads and the socioeconomic situation of households. Current resilience measures are skewed towards the development of physical infrastructure. The challenge of reducing disaster risks in Mwanza involves recognizing the role of non-infrastructure based factors that promote urban resilience to natural disasters.     

EMERGING STATE ROLES IN URBAN STORMWATER MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: The technology of urban stormwater management has far outpaced its actual application in new urban development. This article documents that implementation gap, but shows that state and local governmental measures, particularly storm drainage regulations, can lead to improved performance in the private sector. Although state stormwater management programs are in their infancy, they are already having a measurable effect in stimulating the adoption of local governmental programs to manage urban storm water. Pioneering state programs in Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, described in this article, provide models for states contemplating the formulation of stormwater management programs.     

秦皇岛市气候变化对农业气象灾害的影响

40多年来秦皇岛市气候发生了明显的变化,致使农业气象灾害增加：第一,冬暖、倒春寒、春末高温等灾害频次增多,冬季低温冻害频次和程度减少;第二,冬旱、春旱、秋旱、秋冬连旱、冬春连旱增多,伏旱次数明显减少,盛夏洪涝频次减少;第三,低温连阴雨、高温干旱、干热风等灾害在频次和程度上均发生明显变化。因此,秦皇岛农业生产防灾减灾的重点和方法也适当调整。     

The risks of radiation

Summary The risks of radioactivity are a really complicated matter, yet they are much better known than are the risks relating to thousands of chemical poisons that occur in our environment. The greatest mistakes are probably made in the definition of safety margins. Except for the bombs dropped in Japan and one other case in the Marshall Islands, there has always—luckily—been a wide safety margin between fallout radiation and doses dangerous to health; the margin has actually been about 1000-fold. The Chernobyl dose of 0.5 mGy/year that we received is only 1/1000 of the acute dose of 0.5 Gy which would cause a slight and nonpermanent change in the blood picture.There is no such safety margin with respect to many air pollutants. The safety standards for sulfuric or nitric oxides, ozone and so on, have been set only just below the level that already causes a health hazard, and these standards are exceeded once in a while. Otherwise, traffic would have to be forbidden and many industrial plants, especially power stations using coal, would have to stop working whenever a low-temperature inversion occurred. Environmental radioactivity does not represent a likely health risk in Finland unless a nuclear war breaks out. Air pollutants, on the contrary, are a real and almost daily health risk that should be carefully considered when decisions about our energy production are being made.In spite of what happened at Chernobyl, global consumption of nuclear power will double by the year 2000, since there are about 140 nuclear power plants presently under construction. It is not likely that another catastrophe like Chernobyl will happen, yet nuclear plant accidents are of course possible, even if their likelihood is diminished by improving reactor safety and even if any eventual damage could be expected to be smaller. If a reactor is hooded by a containment structure, no significant release of radioactive materials should be possible even in case of an accident. However, we must be prepared to protect the population with carefully planned civil defense and radiation protection measures.I would like to sum up all of this as follows: The risks of radiation are a fact, but the fear they arouse is often disproportionate. There are risks related to all other methods of energy production as well; nuclear power is no exception in that respect. It is good that we aim at greater safety, but I hope that false presumptions will not lead us to mistaking a less safe alternative for a safer one.     

Protecting people and property: the influence of land-use planners on flood hazard mitigation in New Urbanist developments

Research suggests that characteristics of local government land-use planners help determine the priority that local communities place on flood hazard mitigation. However, research has not examined the significance of land-use planners' values and role orientations for flood hazard mitigation. Multiple regression analysis is used to examine the influence that land-use planners' values and role orientations have on flood hazard mitigation in a national sample of New Urbanist development projects. Findings indicate that land-use planners' values and role orientations have significant implications for flood hazard mitigation in these projects. The paper recommends that local governments adopt a land-use planning approach to flood hazard mitigation that relies on land-use planners to help direct development away from hazardous portions of development sites.     

DUAL PURPOSE DETENTION BASINS IN STORM WATER MANAGEMENT1

Storm water management contributes to flood hazard mitigation; but new approaches now being developed consider also the reduction in particulate pollution and stream erosion. Such approaches involve retardation of storm runoff, or detention programs of some kind, and detention basins are usually required if large storms are to be controlled. The usual concept is that future storms occurring after development should have no more adverse effect than similar storms would have had before development; but a number of different criteria are being used. If control of storms of different sizes is required, only a small amount of additional capacity is required to obtain retention of particulate pollution in the same basin. In at least three different parts of the country, such dual purpose detention basins are being required of developers. In such programs the developers bear the cost, the governmental contributions are not involved.