Adaptation planning for sea level rise: a study of US coastal cities

Sea level rise (SLR) is expected, even without greenhouse gas emissions. As SLR is inevitable, adapting to its impacts has received increasing attention, and local governments are the key actors in this emerging agenda. This study indicates that adaptation planning for SLR should be integrated into two local major planning mechanisms in the United States: the local comprehensive plans and hazard mitigation plans. By evaluating 36 plans from 15 US coastal cities that are considered at high risk and vulnerable to rising sea levels, the results demonstrate that SLR is widely identified, but the overall quality of the plans to address it requires significant improvement. A detailed table of selected plans' characteristics is also provided as a lens on how localities tackle this challenging issue. The paper concludes with planning suggestions for coastal communities to better adapt to SLR.     

RECENT RESEARCH ON EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and other radiatively active trace gases have risen since the Industrial Revolution. Such atmospheric modifications can alter the global climate and hydrologic cycle, in turn affecting water resources. The clear physical and biological sensitivities of water resources to climate, the indication that climate change may be occurring, and the substantial social and economic dependencies on water resources have instigated considerable research activity in the area of potential water resource impacts. We discuss how the literature on climate change and water resources responds to three basic research needs: (1) a need for water managers to clearly describe the climatic and hydrologic statistics and characteristics needed to estimate climatic impacts on water resources, (2) a need to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources, and (3) a need to evaluate standard water management and planning methods to determine if uncertainty regarding fundamental assumptions (e.g., hydrologic stationarity) implies that these methods should be revised. The climatic and hydrologic information needs for water resource managers can be found in a number of sources. A proliferation of impact assessments use a variety of methods for generating climate scenarios, and apply both modeling approaches and historical analyses of past responses to climate fluctuations for revealing resource or system sensitivities to climate changes. Traditional techniques of water resources planning and management have been examined, yielding, for example, suggestions for new methods for incorporating climate information in real-time water management.     

Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples' preference against the impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh

This paper is aimed to identify the factors that influence peoples' preference for adaptation against the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh are randomly interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. First, employing the principal component analysis various factors that influence adaptation preferences of people are identified. These factors are related to “demographic and social aspects”, “wealth and economic standing”, “past coping and adaptive behaviour”, “climate knowledge and information” and “spatial aspect” of life. What is common in these factors is their ability to influence peoples' vulnerability. Finally, the binomial logistic regression model is employed to compute the explanatory power of these factors to predict the respondents' preference for adaptation in situ over retreat or vice versa. Model findings are robust for two scenarios of SLR, i.e. 2050–2075 (LR χ ²?=?133.65, pseudo-R ²?=?0.53, p?<?0.001) and 2080–2100 (LR χ ²?=?282.61, pseudo-R ²?=?0.85, p?<?0.001). Therefore, it is concluded that to avoid relocation of substantial number of people initiative for encouraging adaptation in situ must be taken along side establishment of safe shelter, community radio service and campaign for raising climate awareness.     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

Can California coastal managers plan for sea-level rise in a cost-effective way?

This paper examines five representative sites on the California coast to illustrate a cost-effective methodology using tools and data that local decision makers can apply to analyse the economics of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation. We estimate the costs/benefits of selected responses (e.g. no action, nourishment, seawalls) to future flooding and erosion risks exacerbated by SLR. We estimate the economic value of changes to public/private property, recreational and habitat value, and beach related spending/tax revenues. Our findings indicate that the costs of SLR are significant but uneven across communities, and there is no single best strategy for adaptation. For example, Los Angeles's Venice Beach could lose $450 million in tourism revenue by 2100 with a 1.4 m SLR scenario while San Francisco's Ocean Beach would lose $80 million, but the impacts to structures could total nearly $560 million at Ocean Beach compared to $50 million at Venice Beach.     

Pressures,trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.     

Cocky and climate smart? Climate change mitigation and place-branding in three Swedish towns

Sustainable development has emerged as a distinctive marker of place identity in addition to traditional markers such as buildings and spectacles. Climate change mitigation as a potential place brand, indicating sustainable development, is in focus of this article, comparing such efforts in three Swedish towns. Based on documentary studies and interviews, it demonstrates how one town has been successful in branding itself as “the Greenest City in Europe”, whereas mitigation efforts in two other towns are barely known outside the town halls. In the first case, a combination of material, symbolic, and institutional components has been decisive in establishing a brand with internal and external legitimacy. This case highlights the importance of a dedicated network of influential actors and a potent governance structure visualising the will of a town to make its climate mitigation efforts known. Despite similar material conditions, the two others come short on the symbolic and the institutional dimensions, although they may still have a potential for future success in terms of mitigation both in practice and as a marker of identity.