Carbon and energy taxation for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> mitigation: a CGE model of the Malaysia

Malaysia has made a pledge to reduce voluntarily her carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO₂-e) gas emission’s intensity of gross domestic product by up to 40 % based on 2005 levels by 2020. The country is considering implementing economic instruments, among others, to assist the achievement of emission reduction targets while contributing towards the nation’s energy security and sustainable development goals. This paper develops a computable general equilibrium model with explicit energy-emission linkages to appraise the economy-wide and welfare impacts of carbon and energy tax policies to reduce CO₂ emissions in Malaysia. Results indicate that the negative macroeconomic impacts of carbon and energy taxes are small relative to the quantum of emission reduction. A Hicksian welfare criterion is utilized to determine the impact of revenue natural shifts in carbon and energy taxes. Revenue neutrality assumptions show that carbon taxation is the best choice when it can provide a double dividend if the generated revenue is used for the purpose of consumption subsidy on household purchases. The notion of the double dividend is confirmed when the change in the consumption structure will result in a welfare improvement, while CO₂ emission is decreased effectively. The study also found that carbon tax policy results in greater emission reductions relative to energy taxes, while the use of renewable energy will increase more substantially.     

强“波特假说”存在产业异质性吗?——基于产业碳密集程度细分的视角

强"波特假说"认为严格而恰当的环境规制政策将使企业的生产效率呈现先降后升的趋势,为验证强"波特假说"及其产业异质性,首先建立产业碳密集指数,将工业部门36个细分行业划分为高碳密集产业、中碳密集产业和低碳密集产业;接着运用方向性距离函数测算2003—2014年细分行业的绿色全要素生产率,基于系统"GMM"估计方法验证三个细分行业的环境规制强度对绿色全要素生产率的影响。研究结果显示:第一,样本期间内,高碳密集产业的环境规制强度远远高于中低碳密集产业,这表明高碳密集产业一直是产业节能减排的重点对象,而碳排放情况较为严重的中碳密集产业则为"被遗忘的角落";第二,强"波特假说"在工业部门内存在产业异质性,高碳密集产业和中碳密集产业的环境规制强度与绿色全要素生产率呈"U"型关系,而在低碳密集产业中两者则呈倒"U"型关系;第三,相对于高碳密集产业,中碳密集产业因环境规制强度较容易跨越"U"型拐点而具有较大的减排空间,低碳密集产业在达到"U"型拐点之前,环境规制为其绿色全要素生产率提升的动力。本文研究结论蕴含如下的政策建议:根据产业的碳密集程度实施针对性的环境规制政策,持续加强中碳密集产业的环境规制力度,适度加强低碳密集产业的环境规制强度,高碳密集产业需根据不同阶段的经济水平设计具有针对性的环境规制政策,逐渐将三类产业的"遵循成本"效应转化为"创新补偿"效应,实现经济增长和环境保护的双赢。     

Carbon price impacts on sector cost: based on an input–output model of Beijing

Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China, the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction, as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers. In this paper, the effects of carbon prices on Beijing’s economy are analyzed using input–output tables. The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products’ embodied carbon emission. By calculation, given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO₂, the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22–0.40% of its gross revenue the same year. Among all industries, construction bears the largest carbon cost. Among export sectors, the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries. Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries, tertiary industry, which accounts for more than 70% of Beijing’s economy, also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size. However, from 2007 to 2010, adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors, contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.     

环境库兹涅茨曲线的虚幻性及其对可持续发展的现实影响

生态环境质量真的能够随着经济发展而改善吗？“先污染、后治理”真的是普遍的发展规律吗？既有的理论一般认为．随着经济的发展．生态环境的质量在经过一个时期的恶化之后，将在一定的发展阶段出现好转．其变化过程呈“倒U曲线”状态．这就是环境Kuznets曲线。作者认为这是一个貌似真实的虚幻．生态环境随着经济发展而好转只可能是局部的、而不可能是整体性的．经济发展与生态维护的双赢目标也同样是难以企及的，经济发展与生态维护只能是基于各种利益关系的权衡。文章还对中国长期推行的几种宏观经济政策的生态环境影响进行了分析，并提出了经济利益与生态利益相权衡的现实主张。     

经济集聚对碳排放强度的影响及传导机制

中国城市群的兴起催生经济集聚,化石能源消耗增多引发碳排放形势愈加严峻,探索经济集聚对碳排放强度的影响及传导机制至关重要。本文以2004-2016年京津冀、长江三角洲、粤港澳大湾区、成渝城市群的61个城市面板数据为研究样本,探索经济集聚与碳排放强度的关系及影响机制,创新性地使用抗日战争时期各城市是否有铁路通过、2003年各城市是否有机场、各城市历年的国家级经济技术开发区数量作为工具变量解决内生性问题,构建中介效应模型分别检验环境规制和城镇化水平对经济集聚影响碳排放强度的传导机制,并分析经济密度异质性下经济集聚对碳排放强度的不同作用路径。结果表明:①经济集聚与碳排放强度之间呈显著的负向关系,现阶段城市经济集聚水平的提高有利于降低碳排放强度;②相对于低经济密度城市,高经济密度城市经济集聚的降碳效果更为明显;③经济集聚不仅直接对碳排放强度产生影响,还通过环境规制与城镇化水平两条路径间接对碳排放强度产生作用,中介效应显著;④低经济密度城市经济集聚对碳排放强度的间接影响主要是通过城镇化水平来传导,而高经济密度城市经济集聚对碳排放强度的间接影响可以靠环境规制和城镇化水平两条路径来实现。据此本文认为,政府应推动城市群经济以促进区域融合发展,实现企业联动合作以提高经济集聚水平。针对经济密度不同的城市治理手段应有所侧重,高经济密度城市应以增强环境规制力度为主要碳减排手段,而低经济密度城市则应通过提高经济集聚水平,改善城市建设水平并最终达到碳减排的目标。     

基于省际数据的环境规制与经济增长关系

经济增长是衡量经济发展水平的重要标准,研究环境规制与经济增长之间关系,将有助于寻求不同经济发展阶段下的最适环境规制强度,从而为经济的可持续发展提供环境保障.本文采用"纵横向"拉开档次法,综合考虑衡量环境规制的投入与产出的各项指标及其数据的可得性因素后,构建并计算出环境规制强度指数,同时运用2004-2008年中国省际面板数据,采用面板数据模型进一步分析环境规制与经济增长之间的关系.实证结果表明:环境规制与经济增长之间并非线性的关系,而是正U型的关系.为此,我们认为,本文结论能够对环境规制与经济增长之间的"遵循成本说"还是"创新补偿说"提供合理的解释.最后,我们根据现阶段中国经济处于迅速发展时期的状况,认为合理的环境规制政策应该是加强环境规制强度.同时认为技术创新对环境规制和经济增长具有巨大的推动作用,企业应该充分利用技术创新的优势,进行创新投资,用以弥补"遵循成本说"的劣势,提升企业的竞争力,进而促进中国经济的持续增长.     

Development of a framework for sustainable uses of resources: more paper and less plastics?

Taiwan's EPA has implemented a new guideline called the "Plastic Products Restriction Policy", prohibiting some industries to use plastics as packaging materials for the sake of sustainable use of resources. The significant effect resulting from this policy is the substitution of plastic products with paper products. Is this policy beneficial to achieve future sustainability? I attempt to analyze the resource choice between renewable resources and exhaustible resources for production of final products and services in case of exhaustion of natural resources. In this paper, I develop a framework to examine the dynamic responsiveness of a socio-economical system in facing a continual depletion of natural resources provided by an environmental system. In this framework, the status of an environmental system in terms of carrying capacity is affected by the cumulative impacts caused from human activities, including environmental pollution and resource exploitation. Conversely, it also affects the growth of renewable resources. This framework can serve as a guideline to construct indicators to measure the status of the environmental system and the socio-economical system in order to support a policy planner that formulates an appropriate environmental policy. Based on this framework, I also develop a mathematical model to determine the optimal ratio of resources choice between renewable resources and exhaustible resources.     

可持续发展的经济政策体系探讨

本文从经济政策和可持续发展的基本涵义出发，揭示了可持续发展经济政策的客观基础是在于它能通过经济手段调节产业组织方式、资源与环境要素配置方式及人们的消费方式。基于这些认识，本文在理论上较为深刻地阐述了可持续发展经济政策的基本概念、政策主体、政策目标、政策对象和政策手段；并从产业、区域、投资、金融、税收、价格、贸易等方面探讨了可持续发展的经济政策体系。     

碳交易背景下中国石化行业2020年碳减排目标情景分析

石化行业作为中国八大典型高碳排放产业之一,也是碳市场参与的重要行业.在国家2020年碳排放强度目标的约束下,客观评价其行业减碳的压力,对于政府部门科学制定各个行业碳排放配额的分配方案具有重要支撑作用.同时,亦对于通过低碳转型升级实现行业的可持续发展和支撑国家的工业减排目标具有理论和现实意义.本文针对石化行业9个子部门,结合我国经济发展的总体背景和趋势以及石化行业的相关数据,以2010年为基准情景,在2020年国家碳排放强度分别下降45％和50％的减排约束目标下,构建了一个动态CGE模型——PCCGE,借助GAMS软件模拟分析,预测了到2020年国家和石化行业经济总量、能源消费结构和碳排放量及碳强度等的变化趋势.研究结果表明,相比基准情景,在45％、50％的碳强度减排目标下,国家和石化行业的经济增长、能源消费结构和碳排放强度等指标分别受到一定程度影响,其中,50％的减排目标对国家整体经济增速影响更为明显;对煤炭、石油这两种高碳能源的需求产生了较显著的约束效应;相比国家45％-50％的低碳发展目标,石化行业减碳承受压力达到60.63％至64.78％,面临着艰巨的减排任务与挑战.最后,文章结合低碳市场化背景提出了如下建议:科学预测典型离碳行业的减碳潜力,谨慎应对石化等行业企业参与碳市场交易过程中碳配额指标的制定与分配;充分利用技术创新和能源结构调整等战略,提高可再生能源的使用规模,促进能源消耗结构的优化和调整;构建石化行业节能低碳技术产学研协同创新体系,解决共性节能技术瓶颈;实施石化行业企业低碳发展战略,建设完善碳排放管理体系是行业节能减碳的重要手段.     

CGE model-based analysis of the neutralized hybrid carbon policy and its decomposed effects on economic growth,carbon reduction,and energy utilization costs

The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the exogenous carbon reduction targets,carbon prices,and carbon tax-rates,by computable general equilibrium modeling methods and factor decomposition methods,this article investigates direct and cascaded effects of the hybrid policy on economic growth,energy utilization,and carbon emission on the national level and the sector level,with China's national input-output data-set.Stepwisely,policy scenarios with irrational estimated results are selectively excluded based on comprehensive evaluation among economic,carbon reduction and other policy targets.As a result,against national economic conditions in 2007,the hybrid policy,with a carbon reduction target of -10%,a carbon tax-rate of around $10,and a ceiling carbon price of $40,is highly recommended,because of its significant lower economic loss,lower energy utilization cost,and practical robustness against fluctuation of energy market and carbon market.Furthermore,by decomposition analysis,carbon reduction-related costs are decomposed into a direct part that includes carbon allowance price and carbon tax,and an indirect part as the energy price incremental induced by direct carbon costs.Gross carbon reduction may be decomposed into three parts such as energy intensity,economic scale,and technical progress.And,carbon taxation is the main policy tool that stimulates to improve the energy efficiency.     

多因素驱动下的中国城市环境效应分析——基于285个地级及以上城市面板数据

城市化是深刻影响经济社会发展的一项重大社会工程,也是在世界范围内具有一定普遍规律的发展现象,我国多年来快速的城市化取得了积极成效,也积累了严重的环境问题。本研究从经济发展与环境压力的国内外研究出发,以285个地级及以上城市为研究对象,利用调整过的STIRPAT模型,分析这些城市2004—2013年工业SO_2排放强度、工业废水排放强度和工业烟(粉)尘排放强度的驱动因素,结果显示:(1)产业结构调整会产生显著的环境效应,第二产业产值占比对工业污染物排放强度有显著的拉动作用,虽然现阶段我国大多数城市的产业结构向合理化趋势发展,但部分城市仍过分倚重第二产业对经济的拉动,资源消耗大、环境污染严重;(2)城市人口密度与空间规模扩张,使不同规模、不同经济发展水平的城市间出现了"污染转移"现象;(3)我国城市成为外资企业"污染避难所"的问题并不突出,外资企业对工业烟(粉)尘排放相关产业部门降低排放强度有显著的正环境效应;(4)在一定的城市规模区间内,城市规模对工业污染物排放强度有显著影响;(5)285个城市中,大多数城市的工业污染物排放强度的EKC曲线拐点可能已经到来且处于曲线下降阶段,污染反弹的可能性不大,但污染物排放强度拐点的到来并不意味着环境质量改善的拐点也到来。因此,需要正确认识和处理好经济发展与环境保护之间的关系,为城市化发展滞后地区留足发展的生态资本,通过强化环保总体规划、明确生态红线和城市增长边界,合理布局城市产业结构、提高城市土地集约化程度引进绿色资本、实施差异化评估考核等方式推动城市绿色可持续发展。     

基于多行业DSGE模型的中国碳减排政策效应

碳达峰和碳中和目标的提出,标志着中国低碳减排进入新的阶段,从国家层面的宏观政策包括各个行业的行业政策都在推行各种低碳减排政策,从行业异质性视角动态分析碳减排政策的效应具有重要的学术和实践意义。为此,构建一个包含环境外部性和碳减排政策的多行业动态随机一般均衡模型,研究许可证交易和碳税两种政策情景下,行业技术冲击、税收政策和减排政策调整冲击对宏观经济、环境和行业排放的动态效应。模拟发现:许可证交易政策情景下,行业技术冲击具有明显的结构性效应,覆盖行业企业减排率上升,排放下降,而未覆盖行业排放随产出上升而上升,而在碳税政策情景下,这种差异并不明显。政府采用盯住总排放波动的碳减排政策能够有效地减少冲击带来的福利损失,提高对维持排放水平的关注程度能够减少相应的福利损失。建议政府有效地权衡经济增长和改善环境二者之间的关系,在不造成大的负面经济影响的前提下,加大减排政策力度,推广和扩大碳交易试点范围,尽快在全国建立统一的碳市场。制定碳减排政策时,考虑碳减排政策收入的返还机制,配以减税的财政政策以刺激经济,缓和减排政策的负面影响。政府应根据排放水平顺周期地动态调整碳减排政策的强度,适当提高对维持排放水平的关注程度。     

Three Critical Issues in Sustainable Development Studies and the Transition Development of China

The core issue for China transition development in the next 30 years is to shift from the quantity growth model to the quality improvement model. The paper introduces the research progress in three key areas of sustainable development studies since the 1990s. It is pointed out that there is a well-being thresh-old at which the margin utility of economic growth for human well-being will decline, that there is an ecological limit beyond which more economic growth in terms of physical scale will be impossible, and that the creation of human well-being is related not only to the amount but also to the structure and efficiency of public expenditure from government. After an in-depth discussion on facts, origins and policy implications of each issue, some theory and policy thinking with long-lasting significance are raised for the transition development of China.     

中国碳交易下的工业碳排放与减排机制研究

中国工业的高能耗投入在带来经济快速增长的同时也导致碳排放的急剧增加,作为全球最大的碳排放国,中国肩负着巨大的减排责任。为了探索减排方式,中国自2013年先后在7个省市建立了碳排放交易市场。研究碳交易对工业碳排放的影响及作用机制,有助于科学评价政策,为全国工业碳交易市场的推行提供合理的建议。本文利用中国30个省份规模工业碳排放数据,首先分别采用DID和PSM-DID方法考察了碳排放交易对工业碳排放和碳强度的影响,其次在使用SFA测算出各省规模工业能源技术效率和能源配置效率的基础上探讨了碳交易发挥作用的机制和影响大小。结果发现:(1)碳交易对试点地区规模工业的碳排放量和碳强度有显著抑制作用,分别使二者下降4.8%和5.2%;(2)碳交易分别使试点地区的工业能源技术效率和配置效率显著提高0.03和0.08;(3)碳交易发挥作用的机制与规模工业的能源技术效率有关。能源技术效率的减排效应大于能源配置效率的增排效应,最终导致政策具有减排作用。这些结论说明,想要推进中国碳交易市场的发展并使其长期发挥减排作用,必须要加快碳交易市场相关配套制度的改革,包括碳价机制和配额分配机制等,使市场交易与政府调控有效结合;淘汰落后产能,增加研发投入,鼓励工业企业使用新技术;转变能源消费结构,倡导新能源和清洁能源的使用。     

环保产业：实现可持续发展的朝阳产业

可持续发展的绿色需求是促进环保产业成为朝阳产业的根本动力,本文在分析国内外绿色需求与绿色市场状况的基础上,提出了甸发展绿色高科技等建议。     

环境规制对区域技术创新影响的门槛效应

实现环境规制和经济增长之间"双赢"的关键在于环境规制能否促进企业技术创新。本文在环境规制强度和企业技术创新之间构建了数理模型,并基于区域异质性假定检验了我国环境规制与技术创新的非线性关系并确定了环境规制的最优规制水平。研究表明:环境规制强度与技术创新是非线性的。在强度维度上,环境规制强度和企业技术创新之间符合"U"型关系,即随着环境规制强度的由弱变强,对企业技术创新产生先降低后提高的影响。环境规制的创新效应还取决于经济发展水平的变量。经济发展水平则存在双门槛,经济发展水平跨越的门槛值越高,环境规制对技术创新的促进作用越显著。本文政策涵义明显:政府切忌走入盲目提高环境规制强度的误区,应根据各区域现实特点,有针对性地制定差异化的环境规制强度和标准,并注重滚动修订,及时调整至最优水平。     

中国环境污染密集型产业脱钩的异质性及产业转型

根据现有文献,研究中国的经济增长与环境污染的脱钩,需要将不同环境密集型产业与经济增长的关系分别测算,然后进行比较。本文选取了工业污染的三大来源——废水、废气和固体废物,每种污染源对应着一类环境密集型产业。这三种产业密集排放的污染物的量与经济增长之间的脱钩关系及其内在机制,这是本文研究的重点。本文借鉴Tapio弹性分析模型构建了我国经济增长与不同环境密集型产业之间的脱钩状态的分析模型,并对脱钩状态和程度的判定标准做了规定。随后,对2001-2009年四个时期的经济增长与不同环境密集型产业集中排放的污染物的量之间的脱钩指数进行了测算,同时测算了各产业污染的工业产值弹性及其工业产值的GDP弹性,并对脱钩状态和程度做了判定。结果表明:三类产业的脱钩程度各不相同,其动力机制与发展前景也有所不同,因而需要有针对性地采取规制和治理措施。     

Creating a “values” chain for sustainable development in developing nations: where Maslow meets Porter

This paper serves to establish an appropriate framework for prioritizing policy related to sustainable development by combining elements of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory with Porter’s value chain theory. An appropriate balance of social sustainability, economic sustainability, and environmental sustainability is defined so that policy makers may be provided some direction in regard to appropriate and socially just resource priorities. The model that forms the basis for this framework is then tested through hierarchal regression analysis using data from 45 developing countries. Using these results, the values chain framework has been refined to consider that self-actualization and sustainable development are one and the same and that the satisfaction of society’s physiological needs through the prioritization of policies related to environmental sustainability is the principle motivator for moving on to the attainment of higher-order needs such as increased levels of sustainable development.     

The Status Quo and Developing Trend Analysis of Global Carbon Finance

Abstract

This paper gives a systematic view of the new trends of global carbon finance innovation under the challenge of global climate change and in the process of transition to achieve economic growth from “high carbon” to ‘low carbon”, covering the following aspects: the structure, status quo and developing trend of global carbon market. The paper discusses the innovation in financial organization and service systems and governments’ overall guidance and policy support, and draws the conclusion that the world is undergoing massive changes with governments actively responding to carbon finance to embrace the tremendous opportunities for clean energy and climate change in financial industry. To seize the opportunity, a complete and overall carbon finance system of China should be put in the top of the agenda. Given the current tasks of energy conservation and pollution reduction and the growing demand for capital input, China needs to construct an clear of policy guidance, a diversified financia service system, and a multi-approach carbon finance system to intensify and widen the participation of financial industry, to expand financing channels for sustainable economy and spread risks, and finally, work out an inexpensive solution to the realization of China’s low carbon target.     

长江流域可持续发展基本政策研究

可持续发展是一种既满足当代人需求又不破坏后代人为满足其需求能力的一种发展模式,任何一个地区,均可以根据自身的资源优势和经济发展特点,走出一条适合于自身的可持续发展道路,实现可持续发展的途径与方式取决于区域的资源特征和经济发展水平;而能否实现可持续发展在较大程度上与地方政府部门制定的政策密切相关,研究实现可持续发展的适宜政策具有实际意义。本文在分析长江流域基本特征和影响因素的基础上,从经济、生态环境