Riparian vegetation dynamics and evapotranspiration in the riparian corridor in the delta of the Colorado River, Mexico

Like other great desert rivers, the Colorado River in the United States and Mexico is highly regulated to provide water for human use. No water is officially allotted to support the natural ecosystems in the delta of the river in Mexico. However, precipitation is inherently variable in this watershed, and from 1981-2004, 15% of the mean annual flow of the Lower Colorado River has entered the riparian corridor below the last diversion point for water in Mexico. These flows include flood releases from US dams and much smaller administrative spills released back to the river from irrigators in the US and Mexico. These flows have germinated new cohorts of native cottonwood and willow trees and have established an active aquatic ecosystem in the riparian corridor in Mexico. We used ground and remote-sensing methods to determine the composition and fractional cover of the vegetation in the riparian corridor, its annual water consumption, and the sources of water that support the ecosystem. The study covered the period 2000-2004, a flood year followed by 4 dry years. The riparian corridor occupies 30,000ha between flood control levees in Mexico. Annual evapotranspiration (ET), estimated by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite imagery calibrated against moisture flux tower data, was about 1.1myr(-1) and was fairly constant throughout the study period despite a paucity of surface flows 2001-2004. Total ET averaged 3.4x10(8)m(3)yr(-1), about 15% of Colorado River water entering Mexico from the US Surface flows could have played only a small part in supporting these high ET losses. We conclude that the riparian ET is supported mainly by the shallow regional aquifer, derived from agricultural return flows, that approaches the surface in the riparian zone. Nevertheless, surface flows are important in germinating cohorts of native trees, in washing salts from the soil and aquifer, and in providing aquatic habitat, thereby enriching the habitat value of the riparian corridor for birds and other wildlife. Conservation and water management strategies to enhance the delta habitats are discussed in light of the findings.     

Assessing the Effects of Alternative Setback Channel Constraint Scenarios Employing a River Meander Migration Model

River channel migration and cutoff events within large river riparian corridors create heterogeneous and biologically diverse landscapes. However, channel stabilization (riprap and levees) impede the formation and maintenance of riparian areas. These impacts can be mitigated by setting channel constraints away from the channel. Using a meander migration model to measure land affected, we examined the relationship between setback distance and riparian and off-channel aquatic habitat formation on a 28-km reach of the Sacramento River, California, USA. We simulated 100 years of channel migration and cutoff events using 11 setback scenarios: 1 with existing riprap and 10 assuming setback constraints from about 0.5 to 4 bankfull channel widths (bankfull width: 235 m) from the channel. The percentage of land reworked by the river in 100 years relative to current (riprap) conditions ranged from 172% for the 100-m constraint setback scenario to 790% for the 800-m scenario. Three basic patterns occur as the setback distance increases due to different migration and cutoff dynamics: complete restriction of cutoffs, partial restriction of cutoffs, and no restriction of cutoffs. Complete cutoff restriction occurred at distances less than about one bankfull channel width (235 m), and no cutoff restriction occurred at distances greater than about three bankfull widths (∼700 m). Managing for point bars alone allows the setbacks to be narrower than managing for cutoffs and aquatic habitat. Results suggest that site-specific “restriction of cutoff” thresholds can be identified to optimize habitat benefits versus cost of acquired land along rivers affected by migration processes.     

A Modeling System to Assess Land Cover Land Use Change Effects on SAV Habitat in the Mobile Bay Estuary

Estuarine ecosystems are largely influenced by watersheds directly connected to them. In the Mobile Bay, Alabama watersheds we examined the effect of land cover and land use (LCLU) changes on discharge rate, water properties, and submerged aquatic vegetation, including freshwater macrophytes and seagrasses, throughout the estuary. LCLU scenarios from 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030 were used to influence watershed and hydrodynamic models and evaluate the impact of LCLU change on shallow aquatic ecosystems. Overall, our modeling results found that LCLU changes increased freshwater flows into Mobile Bay altering temperature, salinity, and total suspended sediments (TSS). Increased urban land uses coupled with decreased agricultural/pasture lands reduced TSS in the water column. However, increased urbanization or agricultural/pasture land coupled with decreased forest land resulted in higher TSS concentrations. Higher sediment loads were usually strongly correlated with higher TSS levels, except in areas where a large extent of wetlands retained sediment discharged during rainfall events. The modeling results indicated improved water clarity in the shallow aquatic regions of Mississippi Sound and degraded water clarity in the Wolf Bay estuary. This integrated modeling approach will provide new knowledge and tools for coastal resource managers to manage shallow aquatic habitats that provide critical ecosystem services.     

An innovative modeling approach using Qual2K and HEC-RAS integration to assess the impact of tidal effect on River Water quality simulation

Water quality modeling has been shown to be a useful tool in strategic water quality management. The present study combines the Qual2K model with the HEC-RAS model to assess the water quality of a tidal river in northern Taiwan. The contaminant loadings of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment oxygen demand (SOD) are utilized in the Qual2K simulation. The HEC-RAS model is used to: (i) estimate the hydraulic constants for atmospheric re-aeration constant calculation; and (ii) calculate the water level profile variation to account for concentration changes as a result of tidal effect. The results show that HEC-RAS-assisted Qual2K simulations taking tidal effect into consideration produce water quality indices that, in general, agree with the monitoring data of the river. Comparisons of simulations with different combinations of contaminant loadings demonstrate that BOD is the most import contaminant. Streeter-Phelps simulation (in combination with HEC-RAS) is also performed for comparison, and the results show excellent agreement with the observed data. This paper is the first report of the innovative use of a combination of the HEC-RAS model and the Qual2K model (or Streeter-Phelps equation) to simulate water quality in a tidal river. The combination is shown to provide an alternative for water quality simulation of a tidal river when available dynamic-monitoring data are insufficient to assess the tidal effect of the river.     

COLIFORMS AND WATER QUALITY: USE OF DATA IN PROJECT DESIGN AND OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Knowledge of coliform transport and disappearance may provide information for project design and operation that minimizes potential water quality problems such as the violation of body contact recreation standards. Storm events were sampled in the Caddo River above DeGray Reservoir, Arkansas, and then tracked through the reservoir using the increased turbidity associated with the storm flows. Fecal coliforms were sampled both in the river and throughout the water column in the reservoir. In general, increased fecal coliform concentrations were closely associated with the increased turbidity resulting from the storm flows. This association existed for all three types of turbidity plume movement - overflow, interflow, and underflow. As the turbidity plume moved down the reservoir, fecal coliform concentrations decreased due to die-off, settling, and dilution. With several assumptions, it is possible to use this information to assist in locating recreational sites in a reservoir or to anticipate possible body contact standard violations at existing recreation sites.     

Surface Water Seepage Effects on Shallow Ground‐Water Quality Along the Rio Grande in Northern New Mexico1

Abstract: Interactions between surface irrigation water, shallow ground water, and river water may have effects on water quality that are important for both drinking water supplies and the ecological function of rivers and floodplains. We investigated water quality in surface water and ground water, and how water quality is influenced by surface water inputs from an unlined irrigation system in the Alcalde Valley of the Rio Grande in northern New Mexico. From August 2005 to July 2006, we sampled ground water and surface water monthly and analyzed for concentrations of major cations and anions, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, and water levels. Results indicate that irrigation ditch seepage caused an increase in ground water levels and that the Rio Grande is a gaining stream in this region. Temporal and spatial differences were found in ion concentrations in shallow ground water as it flowed from under the ditch toward the river. Ground‐water ion concentrations were higher when the ditch was not flowing compared with periods during peak irrigation season when the ditch was flowing. Ditch inputs diluted ion concentrations in shallow ground water at well positions near the ditch. Specifically, lower ion concentrations were detected in ground water at well positions located near the ditch and river compared with well positions located in the middle of an agricultural field. Results from this project showed that ditch inputs influenced ion concentrations and were associated with ground‐water recharge. In arid region river valleys, careful consideration should be given to management scenarios that change seepage from irrigation systems, because in some situations reduced seepage could negatively affect ground‐water recharge and water quality.     

Buy Me a River: Purchasing Water Rights to Restore River Flows in the Western USA

In recent decades, public and private environmental entities have been purchasing or leasing water rights across the Western United States (U.S.) in efforts to restore river flows and aquatic ecosystems. The need to pay for flow restoration arises from the fact that state governments did not begin to reserve water for instream purposes until the 1970s, long after water rights had become over‐appropriated and flows were substantially depleted in most rivers. As a consequence, flow depletion has become the leading cause of fish endangerment in the U.S., including the imperilment of two‐thirds of all native fish species in the Colorado River system. This paper takes stock of the progress made in buying water for the environment, specifically by reviewing and analyzing more than 50 transactions executed by public and private entities and the sources of funding underpinning these transactions. We conclude that nongovernmental actors — such as environmental organizations and state water trusts — are integral to regional efforts to restore river flows; these nongovernmental actors executed more than two‐thirds of the transactions we documented. However, we also conclude that the long‐term success of these nongovernmental actors depends upon the availability of sustained public funding that enables them to build capacity and engage in the large number of transactions needed to restore flows across each state.     

Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis1

Hester, Erich T. and Martin W. Doyle, 2011. Human Impacts to River Temperature and Their Effects on Biological Processes: A Quantitative Synthesis. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):571‐587. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00525.x Abstract: Land‐use change and water resources management increasingly impact stream and river temperatures and therefore aquatic organisms. Efforts at thermal mitigation are expected to grow in future decades. Yet the biological consequences of both human thermal impacts and proposed mitigation options are poorly quantified. This study provides such context for river thermal management in two ways. First, we summarize the full spectrum of human thermal impacts to help thermal managers consider the relative magnitudes of all impacts and mitigation options. Second, we synthesize biological sensitivity to river temperature shifts using thermal performance curves, which relate organism‐level biological processes to temperature. This approach supplements the popular use of thermal thresholds by directly estimating the impact of temperature shifts on the rates of key biological processes (e.g., growth). Our results quantify a diverse array of human thermal impacts, revealing that human actions tend to increase more than decrease river temperatures. Our results also provide a practical framework in which to quantify the sensitivity of river organisms to such impacts and related mitigation options. Finally, among the data and studies we synthesized, river organisms appear to be more sensitive to temperature above than below their thermal maxima, and fish are more sensitive to temperature change than invertebrates.     

Just Add Water and the Colorado River Still Reaches the Sea

A recent article in Environmental Management by All argued that flood flows in North America’s Colorado River do not reach the Gulf of California because they are captured and evaporated in Laguna Salada, a below sea-level lakebed near the mouth of the river. We refute this hypothesis by showing that (1) due to its limited area, the Laguna Salada could have evaporated less than 10% of the flood flows that have occurred since 1989; (2) low flow volumes preferentially flow to the Gulf rather than Laguna Salada; (3) All’s method for detecting water surface area in the Laguna Salada appears to be flawed because Landsat Thematic Mapper images of the lakebed show it to be dry when All’s analyses said it was flooded; (4) direct measurements of salinity at the mouth of the river and in the Upper Gulf of California during flood flows in 1993 and 1998 confirm that flood waters reach the sea; and (5) stable oxygen isotope signatures in clam shells and fish otoliths recorded the dilution of seawater with fresh water during the 1993 and 1998 flows. Furthermore, All’s conclusion that freshwater flows do not benefit the ecology of the marine zone is incorrect because the peer-reviewed literature shows that postlarval larval shrimp populations increase during floods, and the subsequent year’s shrimp harvest increases. Furthermore, freshwater flows increase the nursery area for Gulf corvina (Cynoscion othonopterus), an important commercial fish that requires estuarine habitats with salinities in the range of 26–38‰ during its natal stages. Although flood flows are now much diminished compared to the pre-dam era, they are still important to the remnant wetland and riparian habitats of the Colorado River delta and to organisms in the intertidal and marine zone. Only a small fraction of the flood flows are evaporated in Laguna Salada.     

High Sediment Oxygen Demand Within an Instream Swamp in Southern Georgia: Implications for Low Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Coastal Blackwater Streams1

Todd, M. Jason, George Vellidis, R. Richard Lowrance, and Catherine M. Pringle, 2009. High Sediment Oxygen Demand Within an Instream Swamp in Southern Georgia: Implications for Low Dissolved Oxygen Levels in Coastal Blackwater Streams. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1493‐1507. Abstract: Sediment oxygen demand (SOD) is considered a critical and dominant sink for dissolved oxygen (DO) in many river systems including blackwater streams and is often poorly investigated or roughly estimated in oxygen budgets. The purposes of this study are to (1) characterize and document the magnitude and variability of SOD in representative instream swamps found on the Georgia Coastal Plain; (2) predict SOD from more readily measured parameters such as soil, sediment, and litter organic carbon; and (3) obtain an accurate representation of SOD values within this understudied habitat to help improve water quality models and the continued development of DO as an appropriate water quality standard. Results show SOD rates ranging from 0.491 to 14.189 g O₂/m²/day, up to 18 times higher than values reported for southeastern sandy‐bottomed streams and suggest that instream swamps are repositories of large amounts of organic matter and are thus areas of intense oxygen demand and a major factor in determining the oxygen balance of the watershed as a whole. These areas of intense oxygen demand in relatively unimpacted areas indicate that low DO concentrations may be a natural phenomenon. SOD rates were significantly correlated (alpha = 0.05) with a number of sediment parameters, with organic carbon and total organic carbon being the best predictors of SOD rate. When developing water quality models, managers should pay closer attention to the influence of SOD as it plays a critical role in determining DO levels within instream swamps and the river system.     

梯级电站开发对生态环境的影响及保护措施——以瓦岗河水电规划为例

采用现场调查及类比分析等方法,结合瓦岗河水电规划成果,本文围绕小型河流水电梯级开发对环境影响的特点,重点分析瓦岗河水电梯级开发对植被、水土保持、水生生物、水质的影响。针对不利的影响,本文提出适合小型河流水电开发的环境减缓和补救措施。通过对环境不利影响采取相应的保护措施后,如下泄生态流量、外购鱼苗放流等,规划实施带来的不利环境影响将得以有效控制和减缓。     

Establishing standards and assessment criteria for ecological instream flow needs in agricultural regions of Canada

Agricultural land use can place heavy demands on regional water resources, strongly influencing the quantity and timing of water flows needed to sustain natural ecosystems. The effects of agricultural practices on streamflow conditions are multifaceted, as they also contribute to the severity of impacts arising from other stressors within the river ecosystem. Thus, river scientists need to determine the quantity of water required to sustain important aquatic ecosystem components and ecological services, to support wise apportionment of water for agricultural use. It is now apparent that arbitrarily defined minimum flows are inadequate for this task because the complex habitat requirements of the biota, which underpin the structure and function of a river ecosystem, are strongly influenced by predictable temporal variations in flow. We present an alternative framework for establishing a first-level, regional ecological instream flow needs standard based on adoption of the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration/Range of Variability Approach as a broadly applicable hydrological assessment tool, coupling this to the Canadian Ecological Flow Index which assesses ecological responses to hydrological alteration. By explicitly incorporating a new field-based ecological assessment tool for small agricultural streams, we provide a necessary verification of altered hydrology that is broadly applicable within Canada and essential to ensure the continuous feedback between the application of flow management criteria and ecological condition.     

HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING OF THE CARSON RIVER AND LAHONTAN RESERVOIR,NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: The RIVMOD hydrodynamic model was used to route upstream flows through a 115 km section of the Carson River and Lahontan Reservoir, Nevada. RIVMOD results will later be used to predict sediment movement and ultimately to determine mercury transport within the river/reservoir system. Significant modifications to the model computer code were necessary to represent the narrow, steeply sloping rectangular channel and relatively shallow sloping floodplain of the Carson River and its confluence with the Lahontan Reservoir. These changes include expansion of the continuity and momentum equations to account for rapidly changing channel widths along with the characterization of a complex cross-sectional shape. This modified version of the RIVMOD model can handle shallower side slopes and much more severe flood flow simulations than the original version. A 0.25 km spatial increment was required in the zone of confluence between the river and reservoir. Model predictions show excellent agreement with observed downstream flow and reservoir stage for the entire 1986 water year, which includes one of the most severe flood events of recent record. (KEY TERMS: hydraulics; modeling; simulation; surface water hydrology.)     

Dam Design can Impede Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows: A Case Study from the Opuha Dam, New Zealand

The Opuha Dam was designed for water storage, hydropower, and to augment summer low flows. Following its commissioning in 1999, algal blooms (dominated first by Phormidium and later Didymosphenia geminata) downstream of the dam were attributed to the reduced frequency and magnitude of high-flow events. In this study, we used a 20-year monitoring dataset to quantify changes associated with the dam. We also studied the effectiveness of flushing flows to remove periphyton from the river bed. Following the completion of the dam, daily maximum flows downstream have exceeded 100 m³ s^?1 only three times; two of these floods exceeded the pre-dam mean annual flood of 203 m³ s^?1 (compared to 19 times >100 m³ s^?1 and 6 times >203 m³ s^?1 in the 8 years of record before the dam). Other changes downstream included increases in water temperature, bed armoring, frequency of algal blooms, and changes to the aquatic invertebrate community. Seven experimental flushing flows resulted in limited periphyton reductions. Flood wave attenuation, bed armoring, and a shortage of surface sand and gravel, likely limited the effectiveness of these moderate floods. Floods similar to pre-dam levels may be effective for control of periphyton downstream; however, flushing flows of that magnitude are not possible with the existing dam infrastructure. These results highlight the need for dams to be planned and built with the capacity to provide the natural range of flows for adaptive management, particularly high flows.     

Biological Responses to Contrasting Hydrology in Backwaters of Upper Mississippi River Navigation Pool 25

Water level management in Mississippi River Pool 25 differentially influences off-channel habitats in the mid-pool and lower pool. Hydrologic models indicate lower pool off-channel habitats dry with greater frequency and duration compared to similar habitats at mid-pool. We examined the influence of this contrasting hydrology on substrate characteristics, organic matter, macroinvertebrate, and fish communities in off-channel habitats during 2001–2003. Benthic organic matter standing stocks were stable in mid-pool habitats but lower pool values were variable because of annual differences in moist-soil vegetation production. Generally, small-bodied and multivoltine invertebrate taxa had high community biomass and dominated lower pool habitats, whereas longer-lived and large-bodied taxa were more abundant and had higher community biomass in mid-pool habitats having longer hydroperiods. Fish communities were dominated by cyprinids in both habitats, and mid-pool habitats tended to be higher in overall species richness. Unique fish taxa were collected in each pool, with primarily rheophilic forms in mid-pool habitats and limnophilic forms in lower pool habitats. Results indicate that contrasting hydrology associated with a mid-pool control point directly and indirectly influences biological communities in off-channel habitats. Further, management regimes that promote hydrologic diversity in off-channel habitats may enhance biological diversity at larger spatial and temporal scales.     

Estimating Relevance of Organic Carbon,Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Loads to a Blackwater River Estuary1

Abstract: In blackwater river estuaries, a large portion of external carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus load are combined in complex organic molecules of varying recalcitrance. Determining their lability is essential to establishing the relationship between anthropogenic loads and eutrophication. A method is proposed in which organic C, N, and P are partitioned into labile and refractory forms, based upon first‐order decay estimated by biochemical oxygen demand relative to total organic carbon, and C:N and C:P ratios as a function of organic carbon lability. The technique was applied in developing total maximum daily loads for the lower St. Johns, a blackwater Atlantic coastal plain river estuary in Northeast Florida. Point source organic nutrients were determined to be largely labile. Urban runoff was found to have the highest relative labile organic N and P content, followed by agricultural runoff. Natural forest and silviculture runoff were high in refractory organic N and P. Upstream labile C, N, and P loads were controlled by autochthonous production, with 34‐50% of summer total labile carbon imported as algal biomass. Differentiation of labile and refractory organic forms suggests that while anthropogenic nutrient enrichment has tripled the total nitrogen load, it has resulted in a 6.7‐fold increase in total labile nitrogen load.     

Fish diversity,habitat ecology and their conservation and management issues of a tropical River in Ganga basin,India

In the present communication habitat ecology, species diversity; distribution and different indices of fish biodiversity management were studied in a Central India river (River Betwa, a tributary of River Ganga basin approved under India’s first river linking plan). Correlation between fish species richness with the hydrological attributes showed good relationship and water depth, dissolved oxygen and pH were found the most important variables in shaping fish assemblage. Altogether, sixty-three fish species belonging to 20 families and 45 genera were collected from five sampling stations spread along the upstream, mid stream and lower streams. Cyprinids were the most dominated group represented by 26 species belonging to 15 genera, followed by Bagridae (6 species from 3 genera), and Schilbeidae (4 species from 4 genera). The distribution of fish showed interesting pattern and about 10% species were common to all the sites showing long migration range. Shannon-Weiner diversity index showed considerable variation and ranged from 1.89 to 3.51. Out of 63 species status of 10 species were not known due to data deficit, 29 categorized as lower risk, 14 as vulnerable, 8 as endangered, while the remaining two species were introduced. Our study shows that the River supports considerable diversity of the fishes and is important for conservation and about 34% fish fauna is threatened being either vulnerable or endangered. We assessed that the river supports considerable percentage of food fish (89.47), ornamental fish (49.12%) and sport fish (5.26%). Among the eight major types of fish habitats identified along the entire stretch of river, open river, shallow water and deep pools were habitats contributing maximum diversity. Fish species richness (FSR) were significantly different (P < 0.05) in all the habitats except channel confluence and scour pool. Trophic niche model may be useful for assessing altered as well as less altered fish habitat of the tropical rivers. Since this river will be interlinked in near future, this study would be useful for conservation planning and management and also for future assessment after interlinking. Issues related to various threats to aquatic environment and conservation management strategies have been discussed.     

Water supply,waste assimilation,and low-flow issues facing the Southeast Piedmont Interstate-85 urban archipelago

Rapidly growing cities along the Interstate-85 corridor from Atlanta, GA, to Raleigh, NC, rely on small rivers for water supply and waste assimilation. These rivers share commonalities including water supply stress during droughts, seasonally low flows for wastewater dilution, increasing drought and precipitation extremes, downstream eutrophication issues, and high regional aquatic diversity. Further challenges include rapid growth; sprawl that exacerbates water quality and infrastructure issues; water infrastructure that spans numerous counties and municipalities; and large numbers of septic systems. Holistic multi-jurisdiction cooperative water resource planning along with policy and infrastructure modifications is necessary to adapt to population growth and climate. We propose six actions to improve water infrastructure resilience: increase water-use efficiency by municipal, industrial, agricultural, and thermoelectric power sectors; adopt indirect potable reuse or closed loop systems; allow for water sharing during droughts but regulate inter-basin transfers to protect aquatic ecosystems; increase nutrient recovery and reduce discharges of carbon and nutrients in effluents; employ green infrastructure and better stormwater management to reduce nonpoint pollutant loadings and mitigate urban heat island effects; and apply the CRIDA framework to incorporate climate and hydrologic uncertainty into water planning.     

Land Use Planning and Social Equity in North Carolina’s Compensatory Wetland and Stream Mitigation Programs

The U.S. Clean Water Act requires compensatory mitigation for wetland and stream damage through restoration of damaged aquatic ecosystems. We evaluate the North Carolina’s Ecosystem Enhancement Program (EEP), a state agency responsible for compensatory mitigation. We compare communities gaining and losing aquatic resources during mitigation, finding new types of socioeconomic disparities that contradict previous studies of mitigation program behavior. We find average distances between impact and mitigation sites for streams (43.53 km) and wetlands (50.3 km) to be larger in North Carolina than in off-site mitigation programs in other regions previously studied. We also find that aquatic resources in the State are lost from urbanized areas that are more affluent, white, and highly educated, and mitigated at sites in rural areas that are less affluent, less well educated, and have a higher percentage of minorities. We also analyze the relationship between urban growth indicators and EEP accumulation of compensation sites. Growth indicators and long-term population projections are uncorrelated with both projected transportation impacts and advance mitigation acquired by the EEP, suggesting that growth considerations can be more effectively incorporated into the EEP’s planning process. We explore the possibility that spatial mismatches could develop between watersheds that are rapidly growing and those that are gaining mitigation. We make recommendations for ways that regulators incorporate growth indicators into the mitigation planning process.     

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY FOR REGULATORY LOW FLOWS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN,COLORADO1

ABSTRACT: The maximum concentration of a regulated substance that is allowed in a wastewater effluent usually is determined from the amount of dilution provided by the receiving water. Dilution flow is estimated from historical data by application of statistical criteria that define low flow conditions for regulatory purposes. Such use of historical data implies that the past is a good indicator of future conditions, at least for the duration of a discharge permit. Short records, however, introduce great uncertainty in the estimation of low flows because they are unlikely to capture events with recurrence frequencies of multiple years (e.g., ENSO events or droughts). We conducted an analysis of daily flows at several gages with long records in the South Platte River basin of Colorado. Low flows were calculated for successive time blocks of data (3‐, 5‐, 10‐, and 20‐years), and these were compared with low flows calculated for the entire period of record (> 70 years). In unregulated streams, time blocks of three or five years produce estimates of low flows that are highly variable and consistently greater than estimates derived from a longer period of record. Estimates of low flow from 10‐year blocks, although more stable, differ from the long term estimates by as much as a factor of two because of climate variation. In addition, the hydrographs of most streams in Colorado have been influenced by dams, diversions, or water transfers. These alterations to the natural flow regime shorten the record that is useful for analysis, but also tend to increase the calculated low flows. The presence of an upward trend in low flows caused by water use represents an unanticipated risk because it fails to incorporate societal response to severe drought conditions. Thus, climate variability poses a significant risk for water quality both directly, because it may not be represented adequately in the short periods of the hydrologic record that are typically used in permits, and indirectly, through its potential to cause altered use of water during time of scarcity.