Does Human-Induced Habitat Modification Influence the Impact of Introduced Species? A Case Study on Cavity-Nesting by the Introduced Common Myna (Acridotheres tristis) and Two Australian Native Parrots

Introduced species pose a major threat to biodiversity across the globe. Understanding the impact of introduced species is critical for effective management. Many species around the world are reliant on tree cavities, and competition for these resources can be intense: threatening the survival of native species. Through the establishment of 225 nest boxes, we examined the relationship between tree density and the abundance and nesting success of three bird species in Canberra, Australia. The common myna (Acridotheres tristis) is an introduced species in Australia, and the crimson rosella (Platycercus elegans) and eastern rosella (Platycercus eximius) are native species. We then investigated the impact of common myna nest box occupation on crimson rosella and eastern rosella abundance. Tree density significantly influenced the abundance and cavity-nesting of all three species. Common myna abundance (birds per square kilometer) was greatest at low tree density sites (101.9 ± 22.4) and declined at medium (45.4 ± 10.1) and high (9.7 ± 3.6) tree density sites. The opposite pattern was observed for the crimson rosella, with greater abundance (birds per square kilometer) at high tree density sites (83.9 ± 9.3), declining over medium (61.6 ± 6.4) and low (31.4 ± 3.9) tree density sites. The eastern rosella was more abundant at medium tree density sites (48.6 ± 8.0 birds per square kilometer). Despite the strong influence of tree density, we found a significant negative relationship between common myna nest box occupancy and the abundance of the crimson rosella (F _1,13 = 7.548, P = 0.017) and eastern rosella (F _1,13 = 9.672, P < 0.001) at some sites. We also observed a slight increase in rosella nesting interruptions by the common myna at lower tree densities (high: 1.3 % ± 1.3, medium: 6.6 % ± 2.2, low: 12.7 % ± 6.2), although this increase was not statistically significant (F _2,40 = 2.435, P = 0.100). Our study provides the strongest evidence to date for the negative impact of the common myna on native bird abundance through cavity-nesting competition. However, due to the strong influence of habitat on species abundance and nesting, it is essential to investigate the impacts of introduced species in conjunction with habitat variation. We also suggest one component of introduced species management could include habitat restoration to reduce habitat suitability for introduced species.     

Effective Control of Aquatic Invasive Species in Tropical Australia

Often ecologists and natural resource managers can easily access data on invasive species occurrence across a region. Yet, collecting species abundance data over a large area is arguably more important for decision making, but inherently costly, so methods which can provide robust information at low-cost are particularly valuable. Studies of species distribution often use occurrence data to build models of the environmental niche. Environmental suitability derived from such models may be used to predict the potential distributions of species. The ability of such models to predict spatial patterns in abundance have recently been demonstrated. Here we tested the relationship of environmental suitability with local abundance of an aquatic invasive species, olive hymenachne (Hymenachne amplexicaulis) in the Wet Tropics of Australia. Ordinary least squares and quantile regressions revealed a positive relationship between environmental suitability and local abundance of olive hymenachne. We expand on this and use the relationship between environmental suitability and local abundance to quantify the effectiveness of management (reduction in local abundance) under four different management investments. We show that the upper limit of abundance can be used to evaluate management effectiveness based on varying investments, and that ongoing management is the most effective at reducing local abundance. We discuss implications of this in addressing important problems in invasive species management.     

Ambient endotoxin concentrations and assessment of offsite transport at open-lot and open-freestall dairies

Endotoxins are derived from gram-negative bacteria and are a potent inducer of inflammatory reactions in the respiratory tract when inhaled. To assess daily fluctuations of airborne endotoxin and their potential for transport from dairies, endotoxin concentrations were monitored over an 8-h period at upwind (background) and downwind (5 m from edge of dairy) locations on three separate days at two dairies. The dairies consisted of an open-lot or an open-freestall production system, both of which were stocked with 10,000 milking cows. Upwind concentrations were stable throughout the sampling period, averaging between 1.2 and 36.8 endotoxin units (EU) m(-3), whereas downwind concentration averages ranged from 179 to 989 EU(-3). Downwind endotoxin concentrations increased with wind speed, animal activity, and lot management practices, resulting in concentrations up to 136-fold hi gher than upwind concentrations. An area-source model was used to predict downwind ground-level endotoxin concentrations at distances up to 2000 m from the production facilities. Predicted concentrations decreased with distance and reached background levels within 500 to 2000 m, depending on the source emision rate and meteorological conditions.     

The use of an atmospheric dispersion model to determine influence regions in the Prince George,B.C. airshed from the burning of open wood waste piles

A means of determining air emission source regions adversely influencing the city of Prince George, British Columbia, Canada from potential burning of isolated piles of mountain pine beetle-killed lodge pole pine is presented. The analysis uses the CALPUFF atmospheric dispersion model to identify safe burning regions based on atmospheric stability and wind direction. Model results show that the location and extent of influence regions is sensitive to wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability and a threshold used to quantify excessive concentrations. A concentration threshold based on the Canada Wide PM_2.5 Standard is used to delineate the influence regions while Environment Canada's (EC) daily ventilation index (VI) is used to quantify local atmospheric stability. Results from the analysis, to be used by air quality meteorologists in assessing daily requests for burning permits, are presented as a series of maps delineating acceptable burning locations for sources placed at various distances from the city center and under different ventilation conditions. The results show that no burning should be allowed within 10 km of the city center; under poor ventilation conditions, no burning should be allowed within 20 km of the city center; under good ventilation conditions, burning can be allowed within 10–15 km of the city center; under good to fair ventilation conditions, burning can be allowed beyond 15 km of the city center; and if the wind direction can be reliably forecast, burning can be allowed between 5 and 10 km downwind of the city center under good ventilation conditions.     

Vegetation Response to Western Juniper Slash Treatments

The expansion of piñon–juniper woodlands the past 100 years in the western United States has resulted in large scale efforts to kill trees and recover sagebrush steppe rangelands. It is important to evaluate vegetation recovery following woodland control to develop best management practices. In this study, we compared two fuel reduction treatments and a cut-and-leave (CUT) treatment used to control western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis spp. occidentalis Hook.) of the northwestern United States. Treatments were; CUT, cut-and-broadcast burn (BURN), and cut-pile-and-burn the pile (PILE). A randomized complete block design was used with five replicates of each treatment located in a curl leaf mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt. ex Torr. & A. Gray)/mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. spp. vaseyana (Rydb.) Beetle)/Idaho fescue (Festuca idahoensis Elmer) association. In 2010, 4 years after tree control the cover of perennial grasses (PG) [Sandberg’s bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Pres) and large bunchgrasses] were about 4 and 5 % less, respectively, in the BURN (7.1 ± 0.6 %) than the PILE (11.4 ± 2.3 %) and CUT (12.4 ± 1.7 %) treatments (P < 0.0015). In 2010, cover of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) was greater in the BURN (6.3 ± 1.0 %) and was 50 and 100 % greater than PILE and CUT treatments, respectively. However, the increase in perennial bunchgrass density and cover, despite cheatgrass in the BURN treatment, mean it unlikely that cheatgrass will persist as a major understory component. In the CUT treatment mahogany cover increased 12.5 % and density increased in from 172 ± 25 to 404 ± 123 trees/ha. Burning, killed most or all of the adult mahogany, and mahogany recovery consisted of 100 and 67 % seedlings in the PILE and BURN treatments, respectively. After treatment, juniper presence from untreated small trees (<1 m tall; PILE and CUT treatments) and seedling emergence (all treatments) represented 25–33 % of pre-treatment tree density. To maintain recovery of herbaceous, shrub, and mahogany species additional control of reestablished juniper will be necessary.     

Toward Consensus-Based Actions that Balance Invasive Plant Management and Conservation of At-Risk Fauna

Limiting the spread of invasive plants has become a high priority among natural resource managers. Yet in some regions, invasive plants are providing important habitat components to native animals that are at risk of local or regional extirpation. In these situations, removing invasive plants may decrease short-term survival of the at-risk taxa. At the same time, there may be a reluctance to expand invaded habitats to benefit at-risk species because such actions may increase the distribution of invasive plants. Such a dilemma can result in “management paralysis,” where no action is taken either to reduce invasive plants or to expand habitats for at-risk species. A pragmatic solution to this dilemma may be to develop an approach that considers site-specific circumstances. We constructed a “discussion tree” as a means of initiating conversations among various stakeholders involved with managing habitats in the northeastern USA to benefit several at-risk taxa, including New England cottontails (Sylvilagus transitionalis). Major components of this approach include recognition that expanding some invaded habitats may be essential to prevent extirpation of at-risk species, and the effective control of invasive plants is dependent on knowledge of the status of invasives on managed lands and within the surrounding landscape. By acknowledging that management of invasive plants is a complex issue without a single solution, we may be successful in limiting their spread while still addressing critical habitat needs.     

POST‐HARVEST RIPARIAN BUFFER RESPONSE: IMPLICATIONS FOR WOOD RECRUITMENT MODELING AND BUFFER DESIGN1

Despite the importance of riparian buffers in providing aquatic functions to forested streams, few studies have sought to capture key differences in ecological and geomorphic processes between buffered sites and forested conditions. This study examines post‐harvest buffer conditions from 20 randomly selected harvest sites within a managed tree farm in the Cascade Mountains of western Washington. Post‐harvest wind derived treefall rates in buffers up to three years post‐harvest averaged 268 trees/km/year, 26 times greater than competition‐induced mortality rate estimates. Treefall rates and stem breakage were strongly tied to tree species and relatively unaffected by stream direction. Observed treefall direction is strongly biased toward the channel, irrespective of channel or buffer orientation. Fall direction bias can deliver significantly more wood recruitment relative to randomly directed treefall, suggesting that models that utilize the random fall assumption will significantly underpredict recruitment. A simple estimate of post‐harvest wood recruitment from buffers can be obtained from species specific treefall and breakage rates, combined with bias corrected recruitment probability as a function of source distance from the channel. Post‐harvest wind effects may reduce the standing density of trees enough to significantly reduce or eliminate competition mortality and thus indirectly alter bank erosion rates, resulting in substantially different wood recruitment dynamics from buffers as compared to unmanaged forests.     

Using a GIS model to assess terrestrial salamander response to alternative forest management plans.

A GIS model predicting the spatial distribution of terrestrial salamander abundance based on topography and forest age was developed using parameters derived from the literature. The model was tested by sampling salamander abundance across the full range of site conditions used in the model. A regression of the predictions of our GIS model against these sample data showed that the model has a modest but significant ability to predict both salamander abundance and mass per unit area. The model was used to assess the impacts of alternative management plans for the Hoosier National Forest (Indiana, USA) on salamanders. These plans differed in the spatial delineation of management areas where timber harvest was permitted, and the intensity of timber harvest within those management areas. The spatial pattern of forest openings produced by alternative forest management scenarios based on these plans was projected over 150 years using a timber-harvest simulator (HARVEST). We generated a predictive map of salamander abundance for each scenario over time, and summarized each map by calculating mean salamander abundance and the mean colonization distance (average distance from map cells with low predicted abundance to those with relatively high abundance). Projected salamander abundance was affected more by harvest rate (area harvested each decade) than by the management area boundaries. The alternatives had a varying effect on the mean distance salamanders would have to travel to colonize regenerating stands. Our GIS modeling approach is an example of a spatial analytical tool that could help resource management planners to evaluate the potential ecological impact of management alternatives.     

Effects of tree size and spatial distribution on growth of ponderosa pine forests under alternative management scenarios

Forest ecosystems may be actively managed toward heterogeneous stand structures to provide both economic (e.g., wood production and carbon credits) and environmental benefits (e.g., invasive pest resistance). In order to facilitate wider adoption of possibly more sustainable forest stand structures, defining growth expectations among alternative management scenarios is crucial. To estimate the effect of tree size and spatial distributions on growth for forest structures commonly considered in uneven-aged forest stand management, large (0.2 ha+) plots were established in 14 uneven-aged ponderosa pine stands in eastern Montana. All study trees were stem-mapped and measured for diameter and 10-year sapwood and basal area increment. A generalized growth model was developed to predict both total and merchantable 10-year basal area increment for nine hypothetical stand structures [three diameter distributions (reverse-J, irregular, flat) × three spatial distributions (clumpy, partial clumpy, uniform)]. Results indicate that the size and spatial distributions of individual trees have a considerable effect on overall stand growth. The greatest total stand growth was in stands with reverse “J” shaped tree size distributions, while the greatest merchantable stand growth was in stands with “flat” diameter distributions and uniform spatial distributions. Through better comprehension of generalized uneven-aged stand growth dynamics, forest managers may better assess the effects of alternative stand structures on stand growth while providing forest stand structures that may be more resilient in a changing climate.     

Transpiration and Root Development of Urban Trees in Structural Soil Stormwater Reservoirs

Stormwater management that relies on ecosystem processes, such as tree canopy interception and rhizosphere biology, can be difficult to achieve in built environments because urban land is costly and urban soil inhospitable to vegetation. Yet such systems offer a potentially valuable tool for achieving both sustainable urban forests and stormwater management. We evaluated tree water uptake and root distribution in a novel stormwater mitigation facility that integrates trees directly into detention reservoirs under pavement. The system relies on structural soils: highly porous engineered mixes designed to support tree root growth and pavement. To evaluate tree performance under the peculiar conditions of such a stormwater detention reservoir (i.e., periodically inundated), we grew green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh.) and swamp white oak (Quercus bicolor Willd.) in either CUSoil or a Carolina Stalite-based mix subjected to three simulated below-system infiltration rates for two growing seasons. Infiltration rate affected both transpiration and rooting depth. In a factorial experiment with ash, rooting depth always increased with infiltration rate for Stalite, but this relation was less consistent for CUSoil. Slow-drainage rates reduced transpiration and restricted rooting depth for both species and soils, and trunk growth was restricted for oak, which grew the most in moderate infiltration. Transpiration rates under slow infiltration were 55% (oak) and 70% (ash) of the most rapidly transpiring treatment (moderate for oak and rapid for ash). We conclude this system is feasible and provides another tool to address runoff that integrates the function of urban green spaces with other urban needs.     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

The Hyper-Envelope Modeling Interface (HEMI): A Novel Approach Illustrated Through Predicting Tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) Habitat in the Western USA

Habitat suitability maps are commonly created by modeling a species’ environmental niche from occurrences and environmental characteristics. Here, we introduce the hyper-envelope modeling interface (HEMI), providing a new method for creating habitat suitability models using Bezier surfaces to model a species niche in environmental space. HEMI allows modeled surfaces to be visualized and edited in environmental space based on expert knowledge and does not require absence points for model development. The modeled surfaces require relatively few parameters compared to similar modeling approaches and may produce models that better match ecological niche theory. As a case study, we modeled the invasive species tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) in the western USA. We compare results from HEMI with those from existing similar modeling approaches (including BioClim, BioMapper, and Maxent). We used synthetic surfaces to create visualizations of the various models in environmental space and used modified area under the curve (AUC) statistic and akaike information criterion (AIC) as measures of model performance. We show that HEMI produced slightly better AUC values, except for Maxent and better AIC values overall. HEMI created a model with only ten parameters while Maxent produced a model with over 100 and BioClim used only eight. Additionally, HEMI allowed visualization and editing of the model in environmental space to develop alternative potential habitat scenarios. The use of Bezier surfaces can provide simple models that match our expectations of biological niche models and, at least in some cases, out-perform more complex approaches.     

Assisting Australian indigenous resource management and sustainable utilization of species through the use of GIS and environmental modeling techniques

Information on distribution and relative abundance of species is integral to sustainable management, especially if they are to be harvested for subsistence or commerce. In northern Australia, natural landscapes are vast, centers of population few, access is difficult, and Aboriginal resource centers and communities have limited funds and infrastructure. Consequently defining distribution and relative abundance by comprehensive ground survey is difficult and expensive. This highlights the need for simple, cheap, automated methodologies to predict the distribution of species in use, or having potential for use, in commercial enterprise. The technique applied here uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to make predictions of probability of occurrence using an inductive modeling technique based on Bayes' theorem. The study area is in the Maningrida region, central Arnhem Land, in the Northern Territory, Australia. The species examined, Cycas arnhemica and Brachychiton diversifolius, are currently being 'wild harvested' in commercial trials, involving sale of decorative plants and use as carving wood, respectively. This study involved limited and relatively simple ground surveys requiring approximately 7 days of effort for each species. The overall model performance was evaluated using Cohen's kappa statistics. The predictive ability of the model for C. arnhemica was classified as moderate and for B. diversifolius as fair. The difference in model performance can be attributed to the pattern of distribution of these species. C. arnhemica tends to occur in a clumped distribution due to relatively short distance dispersal of its large seeds and vegetative growth from long-lived rhizomes, while B. diversifolius seeds are smaller and more widely dispersed across the landscape. The output from analysis predicts trends in species distribution that are consistent with independent on-site sampling for each species and therefore should prove useful in gauging the extent of resource availability. However, some caution needs to be applied as the models tend to over predict presence which is a function of distribution patterns and of other variables operating in the landscape such as fire histories which were not included in the model due to limited availability of data.     

Wind energy potential analysis for Thailand: Uncertainty from wind maps and sensitivity to turbine technology

Rapid development of wind energy has been witnessed in Thailand. However, different wind resource maps (over land) have brought great uncertainty to wind energy planning. Here, four important mesoscale wind maps were considered: DEDP (2001), World Bank (2001), Manomaiphiboon et al. (2010) of JGSEE, and DEDE (2010). The wind maps were first harmonized to a common grid at 100 m and then compared. The earlier wind maps (DEDP and World Bank) are shown to represent the lower and upper limits of predicted speed, respectively, while JGSEE and DEDE tend to be more moderate with predictions statistically closer to observations. A consolidated wind map was constructed based on their median and shown to have the best prediction performance. It was then used for the technical potential analysis, in which three large (2-MW) turbine models (two conventional and one designed for low wind speed) were considered. By GIS techniques, any land areas not feasible for large wind turbines were excluded, and the corresponding overall onshore technical potential ranges between 50 and 250 GW, depending on map and turbine model. Considering only economically feasible turbines (with capacity factors of 20%) and the median-based map, the final technical potential equals 17 GW when using the low-wind-speed model but is reduced to 5 GW with the conventional models, adequately meeting the national wind energy target of 3 GW by the year 2036. The results suggest a strong sensitivity of estimated technical potential to turbine technology and a suitability of low-wind-speed turbines for wind conditions in Thailand.     

Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.     

Assessing the Cost of an Invasive Forest Pathogen: A Case Study with Oak Wilt

Economic assessment of damage caused by invasive alien species provides useful information to consider when determining whether management programs should be established, modified, or discontinued. We estimate the baseline economic damage from an invasive alien pathogen, Ceratocystis fagacearum, a fungus that causes oak wilt, which is a significant disease of oaks (Quercus spp.) in the central United States. We focus on Anoka County, Minnesota, a 1,156 km² mostly urban county in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan region. We develop a landscape-level model of oak wilt spread that accounts for underground and overland pathogen transmission. We predict the economic damage of tree mortality from oak wilt spread in the absence of management during the period 2007–2016. Our metric of economic damage is removal cost, which is one component of the total economic loss from tree mortality. We estimate that Anoka County has 5.92 million oak trees and 885 active oak wilt pockets covering 5.47 km² in 2007. The likelihood that landowners remove infected oaks varies by land use and ranges from 86% on developed land to 57% on forest land. Over the next decade, depending on the rates of oak wilt pocket establishment and expansion, 76–266 thousand trees will be infected with discounted removal cost of $18–60 million. Although our predictions of removal costs are substantial, they are lower bounds on the total economic loss from tree mortality because we do not estimate economic losses from reduced services and increased hazards. Our predictions suggest that there are significant economic benefits, in terms of damage reduction, from preventing new pocket establishment or slowing the radial growth of existing pockets.     

沈阳市某装备制造产业园地下水污染物运移模拟研究

为摸清沈阳市某装备制造产业园地下水污染运移规律,科学指导当地生态环境管理部门开展工作,以该园区为研究对象,采用有限差分法,建立了该区域地下水水流数值模型,并利用地下水数值模拟软件(GMS软件)模拟预测了连续源强和瞬态源强污染物泄漏情景下1年、5年、10年及20年后污染物在地下水中的运移情况.经计算得到结论如下:①连续源...     

Model-Based Selection of Areas for the Restoration of Acrocephalus paludicola Habitats in NE Germany

The global Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola, Vieillot, 1817) population has suffered a major decline due to the large-scale destruction of its natural habitat (fen mires). The species is at risk of extinction, especially in NE Germany/NW Poland. In this study, we developed habitat suitability models based on satellite and environmental data to identify potential areas for habitat restoration on which further surveys and planning should be focused. To create a reliable model, we used all Aquatic Warbler presences in the study area since 1990 as well as additional potentially suitable habitats identified in the field. We combined the presence/absence regression tree algorithm Cubist with the presence-only algorithm Maxent since both commonly outperform other algorithms. To integrate the separate model results, we present a new way to create a metamodel using the initial model results as variables. Additionally, a histogram approach was applied to further reduce the final search area to the most promising sites. Accuracy increased when using both remote sensing and environmental data. It was highest for the integrated metamodel (Cohen’s Kappa of 0.4, P < 0.001). The final result of this study supports the selection of the most promising sites for Aquatic Warbler habitat restoration.     

The Islands Are Different: Human Perceptions of Game Species in Hawaii

Hawaii’s game animals are all non-native species, which provokes human–wildlife conflict among stakeholders. The management of human–wildlife conflict in Hawaii is further complicated by the discrete nature of island communities. Our goal was to understand the desires and perceived values or impacts of game held by residents of Hawaii regarding six game species [pigs (Sus scrofa), goats (Capra hircus), mouflon (Ovis musimon), axis deer (Axis axis), turkeys (Melagris gallopavo), and doves (Geopelia striata)]. We measured the desired abundance of game on the six main Hawaiian Islands using the potential for conflict index and identified explanatory variables for those desires via recursive partitioning. In 2011 we surveyed 5,407 residents (2,360 random residents and 3,047 pre-identified stakeholders). Overall 54.5 and 27.6 % of the emailed and mailed surveys were returned (n = 1,510). A non-respondent survey revealed that respondents and non-respondents had similar interest in wildlife, and a similar education level. The desired abundance of game differed significantly among stakeholders, species, and islands. The desired abundance scores were higher for axis deer, mouflon, and turkeys compared to pigs, goats or doves. Enjoyment at seeing game and the cultural value of game were widespread explanatory variables for desired abundance. Models for Lanai emphasized the economic value of game, whereas models for Maui identified the potential for game to contaminate soil and water. Models for Oahu and Kauai revealed concern for human health and safety. Given our findings we recommend managers design separate management plans for each island taking into consideration the values of residents.     

A港区海上溢油事故数值模拟预测

为研究A港区溢油事故的影响,通过MIKE21软件建模、并综合考虑风向、风速和潮流等因素设定6种不同情景进行模拟预测。结果显示,在不利风条件下,72 h油膜扩散距离为0.7~39.50 km,扫海面积可达0.03~142.97 km²,风场对油粒子的漂移和扩散起决定性作用,潮流场次之。通过模拟预测,为加强区域溢油应急联动、充分利用周边溢油应急资源,做好溢油应急防范提供参考。