Computing Atmospheric Nutrient Loads to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Tidal Waters

Application of integrated Chesapeake Bay models of the airshed, watershed, and estuary support air and water nitrogen controls in the Chesapeake. The models include an airshed model of the Mid‐Atlantic region which tracks the estimated atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen to the watershed, tidal Bay, and adjacent coastal ocean. The three integrated models allow tracking of the transport and fate of nitrogen air emissions, including deposition in the Chesapeake watershed, the subsequent uptake, transformation, and transport to Bay tidal waters, and their ultimate influence on Chesapeake water quality. This article describes the development of the airshed model, its application to scenarios supporting the Chesapeake Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), and key findings from the scenarios. Key findings are that the atmospheric deposition loads are among the largest input loads of nitrogen in the watershed, and that the indirect nitrogen deposition loads to the watershed, which are subsequently delivered to the Bay are larger than the direct loads of atmospheric nitrogen deposition to Chesapeake tidal waters. Atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen deposited in coastal waters, which are exchanged with the Chesapeake, are also estimated. About half the atmospheric deposition loads of nitrogen originate from outside the Chesapeake watershed. For the first time in a TMDL, the loads of atmospheric nitrogen deposition are an explicit part of the TMDL load reductions.     

Methodological Development of an Index of Coastal Water Quality: Application in a Tourist Area

With the aim of obtaining an index of coastal water quality, a methodological procedure based on numerical classification and discriminant analysis is presented. The procedure was applied to nutrient data (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate) analyzed along the coastal waters of a Spanish tourist area. Using numerical classification, three levels of nutrient loading were revealed, characterizing oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and potentially eutrophic waters. Discriminant analysis was shown to be an effective methodological tool in the discrimination between trophic groups. For every group, the discriminant procedure generated the centroids. The centroids representing oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic conditions were used to establish the two extremes of the continuum of mesotrophic conditions in these coastal waters: Standardizing values from -1 to 1, the centroids for oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic waters yielded an interval that defined the range of mesotrophic conditions. This interval is proposed as a water quality index. The ability of the coastal water quality index to successfully predict mesotrophic conditions was proved with random samples.     

Management Relevance of Benthic Biogeography at Multiple Scales in Coastal Waters of the Northeast U.S.

Continuing pressures from human activities have harmed the health of ocean ecosystems, particularly those near the coast. Current management practices that operate on one sector at a time have not resulted in healthy oceans that can sustainably provide the ecosystem services humans want and need. Now, adoption of ecosystem-based management (EBM) and coastal and marine spatial planning (CMSP) as foundational principles for ocean management in the United States should result in a more holistic approach. Recent marine biogeographical studies and benthic habitat mapping using satellite imagery, large-scale monitoring programs, ocean observation systems, acoustic and video techniques, landscape ecology, geographic information systems, integrated databases, and ecological modeling provide information that can support EBM, make CMSP ecologically meaningful, and contribute to planning for marine biodiversity conservation. Examples from coastal waters along the northeast coast of the United States from Delaware Bay to Passamaquoddy Bay, Maine, illustrate how benthic biogeography and bottom seascape diversity information is a useful lens through which to view EBM and CMSP in nearshore waters. The focus is on benthic communities, which are widely used in monitoring programs and are sensitive to many stresses from human activities.     

Identification of anthropogenic effects and seasonality on water quality in Daya Bay, South China Sea

Thirteen water quality parameters from 12 monitoring stations were collected to study the effects caused by climate and anthropogenic activities on water quality in 2003 in Daya Bay, South China Sea. The data matrix has been built according to the results, which were analyzed by fuzzy c-mean cluster (FCM) and cluster analysis (CA). This analysis has identified anthropogenic effects and seasonal characters of water quality. The dry and wet seasonality have been demonstrated with FCM and CA. The precipitation and the Southeast Asian monsoons, northeasterly from October to the next April and southwesterly from May to September have also an important influence on water quality in Daya Bay. In the spatial pattern, two groups have been classified with FCM and CA. Cluster I consisted of the sites S3, S8, S10 and S11 in the west and north coastal parts of Daya Bay. Cluster I is mainly related to anthropogenic activities such as fish-farming. Cluster II consisted of the rest of the stations in the center, east and south parts of Daya Bay. Cluster II is mainly related to seawater input from South China Sea. Thus, fuzzy c-mean cluster and cluster analysis can be an important tool for the successful characterization of regional-scale water quality.     

Impacts of changes in water quality on recreation behavior and benefits in Finland

The implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires nationally generalizable estimates of the benefits of protecting inland and coastal waters. As an alternative to benefit transfers and meta-analyses, we utilize national recreation inventory data combined with water quality data to model recreation participation and estimate the benefits of water quality improvements. Using hurdle models, we analyze the association of water clarity in individuals' home municipalities with the three most common water recreation activities – swimming, fishing and boating. The results show no effect on boating, but improved water clarity would increase the frequency of close-to-home swimming and fishing, as well as the number of fishers. Furthermore, to value the potential benefits of the WFD, we estimate the consumer surplus of a water recreation day using a travel cost approach. A water policy scenario with a 1-m improvement in water clarity for both inland and coastal waters indicates that the consumer surplus would increase 6% for swimmers and 15% for fishers. In contrast to previously estimated abatement costs to improve water quality, net benefits could turn out to be positive. Our study is a promising example of applying existing national recreation inventory data to estimate the benefits of water quality improvements for the purposes of the WFD.     

Cost effective policies for alternative distributions of stochastic water pollution

This study investigates the role for cost effective coastal water management with regard to different assumptions of probability distributions (normal and lognormal) of pollutant transports to coastal waters. The analytical results indicate a difference in costs for a given probability of achieving a certain pollutant load target whether a normal or lognormal distribution is assumed. For low standard deviations and confidence intervals, the normal distribution implies a lower cost while the opposite is true for relatively high standard deviations and confidence intervals. The associated cost effective charges and permit prices are higher for lognormal distributions than for normal distributions at relatively high confidence intervals and probabilities of achieving the target. An application to Himmerfj?rden--an estuary south of Stockholm, Sweden--shows that the minimum costs of achieving a 50 per cent reduction in nitrogen load to the coast varies more for a lognormal than normal probability distribution. At high coefficient of variation and chosen probability of achieving the target, the minimum cost under a lognormal assumption can be three times as high as for a normal distribution.     

The Relative Importance of Road Density and Physical Watershed Features in Determining Coastal Marsh Water Quality in Georgian Bay

We used a GIS-based approach to examine the influence of road density and physical watershed features (watershed size, wetland cover, and bedrock type) on water quality in coastal marshes of Georgian Bay, Ontario. We created a GIS that included landscape information and water-quality data from a 9-year synoptic survey of 105 coastal marshes covering 28 quaternary watersheds. Multiple regressions and partial correlations were used to discern confounding effects of human-induced (road density) versus natural physical watershed determinants of water quality. Road density was the dominant factor influencing many water quality variables, showing positive correlations with specific conductivity (COND), total suspended solids (TSS), and inorganic suspended solids (ISS) and a negative correlation with overall Water Quality Index scores. Road density also showed positive correlations with total nitrate nitrogen (TNN) and total phosphorus (TP). By comparison, larger watershed area was the main factor leading to elevated TP concentrations. The proportion of the watershed occupied by wetlands explained the largest amount of variation in TNN concentrations (negative correlation) and was also negatively correlated with COND and positively correlated with TSS and ISS when we controlled for road density. Bedrock type did not have a significant effect in any of the models. Our findings suggest that road density is currently the overriding factor governing water quality of coastal marshes in Georgian Bay during the summer low-flow period. We recommend that natural variation in physical watershed characteristics be considered when developing water quality standards and management practices for freshwater coastal areas.     

Valuing algal bloom in the Black Sea Coast of Bulgaria: A choice experiments approach

Increased interest in water quality in coastal and marine areas stemming from the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive has led to important questions in relation to policies that address nutrient loadings. This paper presents the results from a choice experiment study to assess the recreational damage associated with algal blooms caused by nutrients flows into Varna Bay, Bulgaria. Varna Bay is an important beach destination on the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria. Algal bloom events have been experienced frequently in the area. A choice experiment questionnaire was developed and applied in the Varna Bay area to assess the extent to which the quantity of algal blooms and the duration of the bloom affect recreational activities. The amount of bloom was found to be important, as respondents were on average willing to pay a one off tax of 18.97 Leva (€9.73) for a program that provides beaches free from algal blooms.     

Solar and Tidal Modulations of Fecal Indicator Bacteria in Coastal Waters at Huntington Beach,California

The coastal waters at many beaches in California and the United States are afflicted with fecal pollution, which poses a health risk for people exposed to the water through recreational activities such as swimming, surfing, and diving. Identifying sources of pollution is complicated by oceanographic transport/mixing processes and the nonconservative behavior of microorganisms exposed to sunlight and hostile marine conditions. This article investigates the variation of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations in the surf zone and the adjacent coastal marsh by applying autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses that illustrate solar and tidal modulations. A steady state bioreactor model was developed to explain solar inactivation in the surf zone, whereas a dynamic model was applied to explain tidally influenced disturbances in the coastal marsh. These models applied to intensive monitoring datasets on FIB and environmental variables have provided insights into the biologic and physical processes controlling coastal water quality, specifically the influence of sunlight and tides on bacterial levels.     

URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT AND COASTAL WETLAND PROTECTION IN COLLIER COUNTY,FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Traditional development in South Florida has in many cases resulted in undesirable degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, due to overdrainage and overenrichment of surface waters. The study described in this paper was undertaken in order to establish guidelines under which urban development may take place in coastal areas, while minimizing unwanted environmental changes. The study area consists of approximately 70 square miles of relatively flat land in Collier County, Florida. The coastal wetlands of the region are a highly valued natural resource containing the Rookery Bay Wildlife Sanctuary. The upland properties are mainly pine woodlands and have great potential for development. A master plan was developed which will (1) provide adequate drainage for existing and projected development within the study area and (2) maintain the integrity of the estuarine zone. The major recommendations of the plan relate to land use, physical control of surface waters, including construction and maintenance of the water management system, and implementation of the plan.     

Denitrification enzyme activity of fringe salt marshes in New England (USA)

Coastal salt marshes are a buffer between the uplands and adjacent coastal waters in New England (USA). With increasing N loads from developed watersheds, salt marshes could play an important role in the water quality maintenance of coastal waters. In this study we examined seasonal relationships between denitrification enzyme activity (DEA) in salt marshes of Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, and watershed N loadings, land use, and terrestrial hydric soils. In a manipulative experiment, the effect of nutrient enrichment on DEA was examined in a saltmeadow cordgrass [Spartina patens (Aiton) Muhl.] marsh. In the high marsh, DEA significantly (p < 0.05) increased with watershed N loadings and decreased with the percent of hydric soils in a 200-m terrestrial buffer. In the low marsh, we found no significant relationships between DEA and watershed N loadings, residential land development, or terrestrial hydric soils. In the manipulation experiment, we measured increased DEA in N-amended treatments, but no effect in the P-amended treatments. The positive relationships between N loading and high marsh DEA support the hypothesis that salt marshes may be important buffers between the terrestrial landscape and estuaries, preventing the movement of land-derived N into coastal waters. The negative relationships between marsh DEA and the percent of hydric soils in the adjacent watershed illustrate the importance of natural buffers within the terrestrial landscape. Denitrification enzyme activity appears to be a useful index for comparing relative N exposure and the potential denitrification activity of coastal salt marshes.     

A new method for predicting vegetation distributions using decision tree analysis in a geographic information system

Decision tree analysis was used to predict the distribution of forest communities in an area on the south coast of New South Wales, Australia. The analysis was carried out using a geographical information system environmental data base of those topographic and geological variables thought to influence the distribution of vegetation and derived from cartographic sources. The resulting maps of forest communities are of a resolution sufficient to delimit individual forest stands and contain much ecological information.     

Water Quality in the Near Coastal Waters of the Gulf of Mexico Affected by Hurricane Katrina: Before and After the Storm

Water quality was assessed following Hurricane Katrina in the affected waters of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Post-landfall water quality was compared to pre-hurricane conditions using indicators assessed by EPA’s National Coastal Assessment program and additional indicators of contaminants in water and pathogens. Water quality data collected after Hurricane Katrina suggest that the coastal waters affected by the storm exhibited higher salinity and concentrations of chlorophyll a, dissolved inorganic phosphorus, and total suspended solids following the storm compared to the previous 5-year averages. Higher bottom dissolved oxygen concentrations and light attenuation were also observed. Contaminant concentrations measured in the water column were very low or undetectable, as were the presence of pathogens. Overall water quality did not significantly differ from water quality assessed in the five years preceding the storm. Statistical analyses indicate that use of a probabilistic survey design is appropriate for making pre-storm and post storm comparisons for water quality condition on an areal basis. The information in this article has been funded wholly (or in part) by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected to review by the National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents reflect the views of the Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. This is contribution number 1280 from the Gulf Ecology Division.     

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.     

Public engagement and climate adaptation: insights from three local governments in Australia

Public participation in decision making is a central component of the planning process; however, implementing effective engagement initiatives to resolve complex planning and policy problems, such as climate change, is challenging for planners. These challenges are particularly acute in coastal communities throughout Australia, where many settlements are at risk of future climate perturbations. Using the International Association for Public Participation framework for public participation, we analyse three local government led public participation initiatives in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, Australia. Our analysis suggests there are three critical factors that can influence the level of public participation in the context of climate change adaptation: the technocratic approach to decision making; absent high order government support; and the lack of evaluation mechanisms for public participation.     

Goals and remedial strategies for water quality and wildlife management in a coastal lagoon--a case-study of Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark

The aim of this work is (1) to discuss approaches and tools to set management goals using operational indicators for coastal management (i.e., indicators that are easy to measure, understand and predict) and validated predictive models and (2) to discuss remedial strategies for sustainable coastal management regarding water quality and the abundance of fish, waterfowl and large aquatic plants. These approaches are exemplified using data from Ringkøbing Fjord, Denmark, which has undergone two major regime shifts during the last decades. This work discusses the changes taken place during the period from 1980 to 2004 (when there are good empirical data). For Ringkøbing Fjord, which is a very shallow, well-oxygenated lagoon dominated by resuspension processes, we have targeted on the following operational indicators, which are meant to reflect seasonal median values for the entire defined coastal area (the ecosystem scale) and not conditions at individual sites or data from shorter time periods: Secchi depth (as a standard measure of water clarity) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (as a key measure of algal biomass). The operational indicators are regulated by a set of standard abiotic factors, such as salinity, suspended particulate matter (SPM), nutrient concentrations (N and P), coastal morphometry and water exchange. Such relationships are quantified using well-tested, general quantitative models, which illustrate how these indicators are interrelated and how they reflect fundamental aspects of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate that the regime shift in the lagoon can be modelled and quantitatively explained and is related to changes in salinity and nutrient inflow. A very important threshold is linked to increased salinities in the lagoon. For example, when the mean annual salinity is higher than about 9.5‰, large numbers of saltwater species of clams can survive and influence the structure and function of the ecosystem in profound ways. The model also illustrates the dynamic response to changes in nutrient loading. We have presented several management strategies with the goal of keeping the Secchi depth at 2 m, which would stimulate the growth of higher aquatic plants, which are fundamental for fish production and bird abundance in the lagoon. Given the fact that the Secchi depth depends on many variable factors (temperature, TP-inflow from land, salinity, changes in biomasses of macrophytes and clams, which are accounted for in these simulations), our results indicate that in practice it will likely be very difficult to reach that goal. However, it would be realistic to maintain a Secchi depth of 1.5 m if the variability in salinity is minimized and the mean salinity is kept at about 10.2‰.     

Evaluating factors influencing groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution: developing the potential of GIS

The 1991 EU Nitrate Directive was designed to reduce water pollution from agriculturally derived nitrates. England and Wales implemented this Directive by controlling agricultural activities within their most vulnerable areas termed Nitrate Vulnerable Zones. These were designated by identifying drinking water catchments (surface and groundwater), at risk from nitrate pollution. However, this method contravened the Nitrate Directive because it only protected drinking water and not all waters. In this paper, a GIS was used to identify all areas of groundwater vulnerable to nitrate pollution. This was achieved by constructing a model containing data on four characteristics: the quality of the water leaving the root zone of a piece of land; soil information; presence of low permeability superficial (drift) material; and aquifer properties. These were combined in a GIS and the various combinations converted into a measure of vulnerability using expert knowledge. Several model variants were produced using different estimates of the quality of the water leaving the root zone and contrasting methods of weighting the input data. When the final models were assessed all produced similar spatial patterns and, when verified by comparison with trend data derived from monitored nitrate concentrations, all the models were statistically significant predictors of groundwater nitrate concentrations. The best predictive model contained a model of nitrate leaching but no land use information, implying that changes in land use will not affect designations based upon this model. The relationship between nitrate levels and borehole intake depths was investigated since there was concern that the observed contrasts in nitrate levels between vulnerability categories might be reflecting differences in borehole intake depths and not actual vulnerability. However, this was not found to be statistically important. Our preferred model provides the basis for developing a new set of groundwater Nitrate Vulnerable Zones that should help England and Wales to comply with the EU Nitrate Directive.     

Assessment of Eutrophication in Estuaries: Pressure–State–Response and Nitrogen Source Apportionment

A eutrophication assessment method was developed as part of the National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) Program. The program is designed to improve monitoring and assessment of eutrophication in the estuaries and coastal bays of the United States with the intent to guide management plans and develop analytical and research models and tools for managers. These tools will help guide and improve management success for estuaries and coastal resources. The assessment method, a Pressure-State-Response approach, uses a simple model to determine Pressure and statistical criteria for indicator variables (where applicable) to determine State. The Response determination is mostly heuristic, although research models are being developed to improve that component. The three components are determined individually and then combined into a single rating. Application to several systems in the European Union (E.U.), specifically in Portugal, shows that the method is transferable, and thus is useful for development of management measures in both the Unites States and E.U. This approach identifies and quantifies the key anthropogenic nutrient input sources to estuaries so that management measures can target inputs for maximum effect. Because nitrogen is often the limiting nutrient in estuarine systems, examples of source identification and quantification for nitrogen have been developed for 11 coastal watersheds on the U.S. east coast using the WATERSN model. In general, estuaries in the Northeastern United States receive most of their nitrogen from human sewage, followed by atmospheric deposition. This is in contrast to some watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic (Chesapeake Bay) and South Atlantic (Pamlico Sound), which receive most of their nitrogen from agricultural runoff. Source identification is important for implementing effective management measures that should be monitored for success using assessment methods, as described herein. For instance, these results suggest that Northeastern estuaries would likely benefit most from improved sewage treatment, where as the Mid and South Atlantic systems would benefit most from agricultural runoff reductions.     

海口湾人工填海前后冲淤演变数值模拟

为了解近年南海明珠项目、葫芦岛、秀英港扩建工程等人工填海工程对海口湾冲淤变化的影响,基于FVCOM海洋数值模型,对研究区人工填海前后潮流场、波浪场及冲淤变化进行了数值模拟。人工填海后,综合各条件下的冲淤情况,海口湾受潮流和波浪共同作用大部分区域处于淤积状态,年淤积量预测值为0.1～1.0 m;白沙角等局部区域处于侵蚀状态,年冲刷量预测值为0.1～0.3 m;受海口湾人工填海工程的影响,秀英港航道的水动力条件减弱,对通航条件改善有利,需加强航道的水深监测和定时的清淤工作;在南海明珠人工岛南侧波影区泥沙堆积会形成向海的舌状的突出体,其两侧海岸形成侵蚀后退带,需人工补沙等措施以保证岸线稳定。     

Models of total and presumed wildlife sources of fecal coliform bacteria in coastal ponds

Models that accurately predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) concentrations, one of the most widely used measures of estuarine water quality, are needed to improve land use decision-making. Rapidly occurring changes in coastal land uses and the influence on water quality increases the urgency of having improved decision tools. For this study, samples were collected monthly from six coastal ponds, two tidal creeks and four shallow water wells for up to 212 years. These data were used along with other measures of environmental conditions and land classes within each watershed to construct quantitative relationships between combinations of variables and both total and presumed wildlife sources of FCB. Linear regression, bootstrapping and generalized additive modeling that incorporates both linear and nonlinear terms were used. Results of repeated simultaneous sampling on the same tide stage of ponds and downstream estuarine creeks suggest that most FCB come from wildlife and that the ponds effectively remove these bacteria except immediately following heavy rainfall. Predictive models for concentrations of total and presumed wildlife bacteria are provided along with simple measures to estimate watershed boundaries. It is proposed that these tools can be used to minimize impacts on receiving water body quality. The models can be used to test alternative development approaches within coastal watersheds similar to that found in the southeastern USA coastal zone as well as to evaluate specific proposed landscape alterations.