MULTIPLICATIVE,SEASONAL ARIMA MODELS FOR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATER LEVELS1

ABSTRACT: Federal agencies in the U.S. and Canada continuously examine methods to improve understanding and forecasting of Great Lakes water level dynamics in an effort to reduce the negative impacts of fluctuating levels incurred by interests using the lakes. The short term, seasonal and long term water level dynamics of lakes Erie and Ontario are discussed. Multiplicative, seasonal ARIMA models are developed for lakes Erie and Ontario using standardized, monthly mean level data for the period 1900 to 1986. The most appropriate model identified for each lake had the general form: (1 0 1)(0 1 1)₁₂. The data for each lake were subdivided by time periods (1900 to 1942;1 943 to 1986) and the model coefficients estimated for the subdivided data were similar, indicating general model stability for the entire period of record. The models estimated for the full data sets were used to forecast levels 1,2,3, and 6 months ahead for a period of high levels (1984 to 1986). The average absolute forecast error for Lake Erie was 0.049m, 0.076m, 0.091 m and 0.128m for the 1, 2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The average absolute forecast error for Lake Ontario was 0.058m, 0.095m, 0.120m and 0.136m for the 1,2,3, and 6 month forecasts, respectively. The ARIMA models provide additional information on water level time series structure and dynamics. The models also could be coordinated with current forecasting methods, possibly improving forecasting accuracy.     

A comparative study on the properties,mechanisms and process designs for the adsorption of non-ionic or anionic dyes onto cationic-polymer/bentonite

The adsorption properties and mechanisms of a cationic-polymer/bentonite complex (EPI-DMA/bentonite), prepared from polyepicholorohydrin-dimethylamine and bentonite, for non-ionic dyes (Disperse Blue SBL and Vat Scarlet R) and anionic dyes (Reactive Violet K-3R and Acid Dark Blue 2G) were investigated in this study. The solution pH, presence of salt and surfactant can significantly affect the dye removal efficiency. The equilibrium data were analyzed using the Langmuir and Freundlich models. The Langmuir model is the most suitable to describe non-ionic dye adsorption, but for anionic dyes the Freundlich model is best. The kinetic data for the adsorption of different dyes were analyzed using pseudo first- and second-order equations, and the experimental data conformed to the pseudo second-order kinetic model better. The possibility of intraparticle diffusion was also examined by using the intraparticle diffusion equation. The single-stage batch adsorber design for the adsorption of both types of dyes onto EPI-DMA/bentonite was studied based on the Langmuir isotherm model for non-ionic dyes and the Freundlich isotherm model for anionic dyes. The results showed that the required amount of EPI-DMA/bentonite for 95% dye removal in 5 L dye solution with a concentration of 50 mg/L is 378.0 g for DB SBL, 126.5 g for VS R, 9.7 g for RV K-3R and 15.5 g for ADB 2G.     

A RETROSPECTIVE BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS OF WATER RESOURCE PROJECTS IN THE CUMBERLAND RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: A retrospective benefit-cost analysis of major water resources projects in the Cumberland River basin was conducted. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' projects selected were Dale Hollow, Wolf Creek, Center Hill, and J. Percy Priest Reservoirs. The ex-post performance of the evaluated reservoirs were compared to the ex-ante estimates. Benefits and costs for each project were deflated to their base year and respective average annual values for each of these components were calculated. An ex-post benefit-cost ratio was determined for each project, as well as the combined system. The benefit-cost ratio for each project surpassed unity. The actual ratio as compared to the ex-ante estimate for each project is as follows: Dale Hollow, 1.24 to 1.46; Wolf Creek, 1.40 to 1.53; Center Hill, 1.17 to 2.02; and J. Percy Priest, 1.45 to 1.6. The internal rate of return was also determined for each project. The results obtained for each project are tabulated and discussed with consideration given to factors effecting the economic evaluation of the projects.     

环境行政公益诉讼——以美、印经验为借鉴

环境行政公益诉讼的建立在我国具有理论上的依据,但是具体的构建尚需要借鉴成熟经验.本文介绍了世界公益诉讼的典范--美国环境的公民诉讼和具有巨大创造性的印度环境行政公益诉讼,这两个国家在环境公益诉讼上的经验,给我国建构环境行政公益诉讼提供了借鉴.     

EVALUATION OF THE APPLICABILITY OF THE SWAT MODEL FOR COASTAL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used for hydrologic analyses at various watershed scales. However, little is known about the model's performance in coastal watersheds. In this study SWAT was evaluated for its applicability in three Louisiana coastal watersheds: the Amite, Tickfaw, and Tangipahoa River watersheds. The model was calibrated with daily discharge from 1976 to 1977 and validated from 1979 to 1999 for the Amite and Tangipahoa and with daily discharge from 1979 to 1989 for the Tickfaw. Deviation of mean discharge and the Nash‐Sutcliffe model efficiency were used to evaluate model behavior. The study found that Manning's roughness coefficient for the main channel, SCS curve number, and soil evaporation compensation factor were the most sensitive parameters for these coastal watersheds. The Manning's roughness coefficient showed the greatest effect on the response time of surface runoff, suggesting the critical role of channel routing in hydrologic modeling for lowland watersheds. The SWAT model demonstrated an excellent performance, with Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.935, 0.940, and 0.960 for calibrations of the Amite, Tickfaw, and Tangipahoa watersheds, respectively, and of 0.851, 0.811, and 0.867 for validations. The modeling results demonstrate that SWAT is capable of simulating hydrologic processes for medium scale to large scale coastal lowland watersheds in Louisiana.     

Cogeneration potential in Indian sugar mills: a case study

The Indian sugar industry has massive potential for the cogeneration of electrical power. The sugar manufacturing process generates bagasse as a byproduct from cane-crushing. This bagasse can be used as a fuel for the boilers employed in steam raising for the process use and cogeneration. In this study, the potential for power cogeneration in a typical plant under the existing boiler-turbine configuration has been estimated. An alternative configuration requiring capital investment in machinery has also been studied. The cost of cogenerating power, including the cost of fuel, operations and capital services wherever necessary, has been calculated for both these cases, using a linear optimisation method. The exercise allows for the use of multiple fuels, namely bagasse and coal, for cogeneration throughout the year including the cane-crushing season and the off-season. The per unit supply price of cogenerated power thus computed has been compared with the utility's own cost with a view to selling the surplus cogenerated power to the grid.     

The application of charging schemes for the management of water pollution

This paper examines lessons from the experience in the use of charges for water resource management, considers how charges have been used in Europe, and how a new charging system could be developed. It focuses particularly on the case for pollution charges, or charges for using a river for the disposal of waste. The paper falls into four sections. The first reviews briefly the case for pollution charges, both theoretical and practical, and shows how they can complement regulatory systems. The experience of pollution charging schemes in the Netherlands, Germany and France, where charges have been used as a major mechanism for environmental and water resource management for upwards of 10 years are examined. The basis for charge schemes, their effectiveness as policy instruments and the institutional framework within which they operate are discussed. The paper addresses some questions which are central to the definition and development of charge schemes- the objectives, the problems and constraints. A case study is used to establish the feasibility of introducing emission charges for water resource management. How the charge could be designed and administered and how the charge level could be set is also described. Finally, some broad recommendations on the effectiveness and issues associated with charge schemes are presented.     

炼油污水的深度处理

论述了炼油污水深度处理的常用技术--过滤、膜分离及化学氧化技术,对炼油污水深度处理进行了中试试验,并结合试验结果对动态砂滤系统、PAN膜处理系统和高级氧化系统处理炼油厂二级排放水的适用性进行了论证。结果表明,二级排放水经动态砂滤系统和NF纳滤系统处理后,COD、氨氮、SS、硫化物、酚、浊度、总铁等指标均达到循环水补水水质要求,可以回用于循环水场;经PAN膜制成的UF超滤和RO反渗透系统处理后,各种污染物指标和盐类指标都降至微量,且脱盐效果明显。     

Trace element removal from coal ash leachate by a 10-year-old constructed wetland

This study investigated the ability of a 10-yr-old constructed wetland to treat metal-contaminated leachate emanating from a coal ash pile at the Widows Creek electric utility, Alabama (USA). The two vegetated cells, which were dominated by cattail (Typha latifolia L.) and soft rush (Juncus effusus L.), were very effective at removing Fe and Cd from the wastewater, but less efficient for Zn, S, B, and Mn. The concentrations were decreased by up to 99% for Fe, 91% for Cd, 63% for Zn, 61% for S, 58% for Mn, and 50% for B. Higher pH levels (>6) in standing water substantially improved the removing efficiency of the wetland for Mn only. The belowground tissues of both cattail and soft rush had high concentrations of all elements; only for Mn, however, did the concentration in the shoots exceed those in the belowground tissues. The concentrations of trace elements in fallen litter were higher than in the living shoots, but lower than in the belowground tissues. The trace element accumulation in the plants accounted for less than 2.5% of the annual loading of each trace element into the wetland. The sediments were the primary sinks for the elements removed from the wastewater. Except for Mn, the concentrations of trace elements in the upper layer (0-5 cm) of the sediment profile tended to be higher than the lower layers (5-10 and 10-15 cm). We conclude that constructed wetlands are still able to efficiently remove metals in the long term (i.e.,>10 yr after construction).     

Green jobs for the disadvantaged: an analysis of government policies in British Columbia

This study explores the potential for societies to create more green jobs for the disadvantaged. The research questions are related to how policy instruments can support green jobs and how green jobs can support the disadvantaged. These questions are asked in the context of the province of British Columbia in Canada, with implications for the global economy. Findings indicate that green jobs policies have direct and indirect effects on the growth of sustainable industries at a municipal level. Furthermore, in BC policy, green jobs are unmistakably connected to the government perception of green growth. Finally, the preferred pathway for policy implementation appears to involve local municipalities that apply for funding for projects that can potentially connect local actors and include the disadvantaged. Several policies accomplish the inclusion of the disadvantaged. The first section of this paper provides the BC provincial context on green jobs. The second section describes and analyzes a sample of thirteen BC policy instruments, as well as concurrent labor market policy activities for their inclusion of the disadvantaged. The third section posits a provisional policy framework for training and hiring more inclusively for green jobs. The fourth section offers six recommendations to bolster green jobs for all at a national and international level.     

Integrated model for renewable energy planning in Turkey

All economic sectors are associated with energy use; therefore, government organizations aim to supply sustainable energy for human needs and economic growth. In particular, increased environmental concerns of the public in Turkey have impacted policymaking for renewable energy (RE) management in Turkey. The primary objective for RE sources of the Turkish Ministry of Energy is to ensure that 30% of the share of electricity production is from RE resources in 2023. In this paper, the integrated multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model is presented to determine effective allocation of RE supply for seven different geographical regions in Turkey for the period of 2017 to 2024. The integrated model consists of two different stages. The first stage involves qualitative evaluations of RE sources for seven geographical regions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine criteria priorities and overall ratings of geographical regions across determined criteria for RE sources are computed. The second stage of the integrated model consists of a multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model. The proposed multi-objective linear programming model is coded in MPL (Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using the GUROBI 5.1.0 solver. The output of the integrated model presents the total supply amount of RE sources for geographical regions in planning period. The ε-constraints method is applied to compute the total supply amount of RE from geographical regions for the period of 2017 to 2024. In this study, a systematic decision-making model is generated to allocate renewable energy sources to the geographical regions. The presented model integrates qualitative evaluations and quantitative parameters of different geographical regions to determine the optimal supply amount of RE. The obtained results are consistent with the potential quantities of RE alternatives in geographical regions, regional specifications, and social requirements.     

SEQUENTIAL GENERATION OF STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: An auto-regressive model has been developed for hydrologic data simulation. The model is computationally easier, parsimonious in number of model parameters and more stable in statistical characteristics than the existing auto-regressive model. The proposed model was used for synthesizing 10 sequences, each of 100 year length, of monthly flows for the river Beas. The statistical parameters were calculated using 49-year historical record for the river. The data was also synthesized using existing auot-regressive model. The synthesized sequences have been compared. The results indicate that the proposed model is as good as the existing auto-regressive model in preserving the mean and standard deviation of historical record. It is further shown that the proposed model requires less parameters than the auto-regressive model for simulation of long-term dependence.     

Local recycling of plant nutrients from small-scale wastewater systems to farmland—A Swedish scenario study

Reducing the negative impact from on-site systems and promoting recycling are important tasks for municipal authorities, especially as regards phosphorus. The objective of this scenario study was to compare energy turnover in a life cycle perspective, recycling potential and expected reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions for three upgraded small-scale wastewater systems based on local recycling of plant nutrients. The systems studied were urine separation, blackwater separation and chemical precipitation in the septic tank. The urine was sanitised through storage, the blackwater through liquid composting and the precipitated sludge through chemical treatment with urea before reuse in agriculture. The system boundaries included the operational phase as well as investment in capital goods required for upgrading the existing on-site systems.The urine separation system used least energy. The potential recycling and reduction of phosphorus was lower than for the other two systems, while that of nitrogen was higher than for the chemical precipitation system but lower than for the blackwater separation system. The blackwater separation system reduced both nitrogen and phosphorus to a high extent and also enabled a large proportion of both nitrogen and phosphorus to be recycled to arable land. However, a major drawback with this system was its significantly higher use of electricity, related to the aeration and stirring required when sanitising the blackwater by liquid composting. When urea treatment replaced liquid composting, the use of electricity decreased substantially in the blackwater separation system. The chemical precipitation system was efficient in reducing and recycling phosphorus, while inefficient for nitrogen. The use of fossil fuels was significantly higher than for the other two systems, primarily due to the production of the precipitation chemical.     

The Use of Ecologically Based Screening Criteria in a Community-sponsored Open Space Preservation Programme

The Meridian Township Land Preservation Programme is the first community-sponsored, open space and natural areas preservation programme in Michigan using ecological principles in the ranking of properties for acquisition. The programme was established through a collaborative, multi-stakeholder effort that resulted in a model ordinance, operating procedures, guidelines for landowners to nominate their properties for consideration, and a set of criteria for property selection. The screening criteria include ecological value, natural or functional value, parcel size, surrounding land use, environmental quality, and aesthetic value. The criteria were developed to reflect principles established by landscape ecology and land conservation objectives to maintain a maximum degree of biodiversity and to develop, manage and maintain ecological infrastructure through management of protected areas. The programme is entirely funded through a local millage, which will raise nearly $10 million over 10 years. The target for acquisition of open space is approximately 10% of the currently undeveloped parcels in the township.     

Recovery of biomass wastes by hydrolysis in sub-critical water

The recovery of waste substances is important not only for the prevention of environmental issues, but also for the rational utilization of natural resources. Hydrolysis reaction in sub-critical water is a promising method for the treatment of organic wastes and has been attracting worldwide attention. In this paper, sub-critical water hydrolysis was employed as a method for producing amino acids, reducing sugars, bio-oil and gas fuels from biomass wastes. The current statuses of these useful chemicals production from biomass wastes by hydrolysis in sub-critical water were reviewed. The review indicates that sub-critical water hydrolysis can be an efficient process for recovering useful chemicals from biomass wastes. This method is renewable, sustainable, efficient, and safe for the environment.     

Pleasure Boatyard Soils are Often Highly Contaminated

The contamination in pleasure boatyards has been investigated. Measured concentrations of copper, zinc, lead, mercury, cadmium, tributyltin (TBT), the 16 most common polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (∑16 PAHs), and the seven most common polychlorinated biphenyls (∑7 PCBs) from investigations at 34 boatyards along the Swedish coast have been compiled. The maximum concentrations were 7,700 for Cu, 10,200, for Zn, 40,100 for Pb, 188 for Hg, 18 for Cd, 107 for TBT, 630 for carcinogenic PAHs, 1,480 for ∑16 PAHs, and 3.8 mg/kg DW for ∑7 PCB; all 10–2,000 higher than the Swedish environmental qualitative guidelines. In addition, the mean of the median values found at the 34 places shows that the lower guidance value for sensitive use of land was exceeded for the ∑7 PCBs, carcinogenic PAHs, TBT, Pb, Hg, and Cu by a factor of 380, 6.8, 3.6, 2.9, 2.2 and 1.7, respectively. The even higher guideline value for industrial use was exceeded for the ∑7 PCBs and TBT by a factor of 15 and 1.8, respectively. TBT, PAHs, Pb, Cd, and Hg are prioritized substances in the European Water Framework Directive and should be phased out as quickly as possible. Because of the risk of leakage from boatyards, precautions should be taken. The high concentrations measured are considered to be dangerous for the environment and human health and highlight the urgent need for developing and enforcing pleasure boat maintenance guidelines to minimize further soil and nearby water contamination.     

Geochemical partitioning of copper, lead, and zinc in benthic, estuarine sediment profiles

The geochemical partitioning of copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) was examined in benthic sediment profiles (0- to 20-cm depth interval) composed of relatively coarse (65-90% sand-sized particles), noncohesive, suboxic material (Eh +120 to +260 mV). Total Cu, Pb, and Zn concentrations ranged from 8.3 to 194, 16.3 to 74.8, and 30.1 to 220 mg/kg, respectively, and were related to vertical trends in sediment texture. The observed distribution coefficients describing solid-solution partitioning were in the range of 100 to 1000 L/kg. The geochemical partitioning of solid-phase Cu, Pb, and Zn between six operationally defined fractions was examined with a sequential extraction scheme. The association of Cu, Pb, and Zn with amorphous oxides, crystalline oxides, and organic matter was linearly dependent on the abundance of each respective phase. For retention by amorphous oxide minerals, the observed stoichiometry ranged from 5.2 to 23.7 mg/g for Cu, 12.8 to 21.5 mg/g for Pb, and 23.1 to 85.7 mg/g for Zn. Corresponding values for association with crystalline oxides were an order of magnitude less than those for amorphous oxides, indicating a lesser affinity of trace metals for crystalline oxides. The stoichiometric relationships describing association with organic matter ranged from 17.6 to 54.0 mg/g for Cu, 6.1 to 9.6 mg/g for Pb, and 6.4 to 16.4 mg/g for Zn. The results from this study provide an insight into processes controlling trace metal partitioning in coarse-textured, suboxic, estuarine sediments.     

Assessing Fisheries – Using an Ethical Matrix in a Participatory Process

The Norwegian National Committee for Research Ethics inScience and Technology (NENT), collaborating with The NorwegianFisherman's Association and The Research Council of Norway,started in 1999 a project aiming at an ethical assessment of Norwegian fisheries for the year 2020. The project was to preparethe ground for ethical debate in and of the fishery sector inview of pending important decisions on long term strategies. Thispaper has its focus on the method used for achieving these aims,rather than the substantive results concerning the fisheries. Amethod was developed for this purpose, called the ethicalscenario process. This included the construction of scenarios forthe future of Norwegian fisheries, using an ethical matrix for evaluating strategies, and organizing a ``value workshop' whereparticipants from different stakeholder groups came together todo ethical evaluations. The positive achievements and theshortcomings of this method are discussed in this paper. The useof an ethical matrix was meant to combine a participatory approachwith insights from theoretical ethics. The project revealedinherent tensions between these two objectives. Possible ways ofdealing with this tension are indicated, but in general a goodgrasp of the socio-political context might be the best guardianagainst the possible pitfalls involved in such an approach.     

Environmentally Friendly Disposal Behaviour and Local Support Systems: lessons from a metropolitan area

The amount of household refuse has steadily increased in Sweden. Strategies for household waste reduction include sorting, recycling, re-use and repair. Two categories of motivational factors determine disposal behaviour, external and internal. The external factors include administrative, economic, information and physical measures. The internal factors include knowledge, values and attitudes of individuals. Environmentally friendly disposal behaviour is best achieved when both external and internal motivational factors argue for performing activities benign to the environment. The data were collected by interviewing households and stakeholders in a metropolitan area and by studying the facilities for recycling and re-use there. The results show that over 80% of the inhabitants sorted most paper and glass; they were satisfied with the facilities and considered the behaviour important for the environment. The external motivational factors for this behaviour were very strong, with numerous bins and ample information. National policy, formulated in the eco-cycle bill with specified achievement levels, local responsibilities for organising waste management, supporting citizens with physical facilities, information and moti vational arguments, seems to be a successful combination when implementing environmental policy in this sector.     

Prioritizing Wetland Restoration for Sediment Yield Reduction: A Conceptual Model

In a climate of limited resources, it is often necessary to prioritize restoration efforts geographically. The synoptic approach is an ecologically based tool for geographic prioritization of wetland protection and restoration efforts. The approach was specifically designed to incorporate best professional judgment in cases where information and resources are otherwise limited. Synoptic assessments calculate indices for functional criteria in subunits (watersheds, counties, etc.) of a region and then rank the subunits. Ranks can be visualized in region-scale maps which enable managers to identify areas where efforts optimize functional performance on a regional scale. In this paper, we develop a conceptual model for prioritizing watersheds whose wetlands can be restored to reduce total sediment yield at the watershed outlet. The conceptual model is designed to rank watersheds but not individual wetlands within a watershed. The synoptic approach is valid for applying the sediment yield reduction model because there is high demand for prioritizing disturbed wetlands for restoration, but there is limited, quantitative, accurate information available with which to make decisions. Furthermore, the cost of creating a comprehensive database is prohibitively high. Finally, because the model will be used for planning purposes, and, specifically, for prioritizing based on multiple decisions rather than optimizing a single decision, the consequence of prioritization errors is low. Model results cannot be treated as scientific findings. The conclusions of an assessment are based on judgement, but this judgement is guided by scientific principles and a general understanding of relevant ecological processes. The conceptual model was developed as the first step towards prioritizing of wetland restoration for sediment yield reduction in US EPA Region 4.