Transformational change: governance interventions for climate change adaptation from a continuous change perspective

Although transformational change is a rather new topic in climate change adaptation literature, it has been studied in organisational theory for over 30 years. This paper argues that governance scholars can learn much from organisation theory, more specifically regarding the conceptualisation of change and intervention strategies. We reconceptualise the divide between transformational change and incremental change by questioning the feasibility of changes that are concurrently in-depth, large scale, and quick; and the assumption that incremental change is necessarily slow and can only result in superficial changes. To go beyond this dichotomy, we introduce the conceptualisation of continuous transformational change. Resulting intervention strategies include (1) providing basic conditions for enabling small in-depth wins; (2) amplifying small wins through sensemaking, coupling, and integrating; and (3) unblocking stagnations by confronting social and cognitive fixations with counterintuitive interventions. These interventions necessitate a modest leadership. Governing transformational change thus requires transformation of the governance systems themselves.     

Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model

The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.     

Direct and indirect land-use change as prospective climate change indicators for peri-urban development transitions

With urban areas responsible for a significant share of total anthropogenic emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to land-use change (LUC) induced by peri-urban (PU) development have the potential to be considerable. Despite this, there is little research into the transition from PU cropland to housing in terms of contribution to global warming. This paper presents a cross-sectoral integrative method for prospective climate change evaluation of PU LUC. Specifically, direct LUC (dLUC) GHG emissions from converting PU cropland to greenfield housing were examined. Additionally, GHG emissions due to displaced crop production inducing indirect LUC (iLUC) elsewhere were assessed. GHG impacts of dLUC and iLUC were each determined to be approximately 8 per cent of total GHG emissions due to a greenfield housing development displacing PU cropland. This magnitude of dLUC and iLUC emissions suggests that both have importance in future land-use decision making with respect to PU environments.     

In the midst of change

It is characteristic to be in the midst of change and not to recognize it. In retrospect 1970–72 at Clark University presaged a successful universalization of environmental perception, but it was a high point rather than a beginning in pursuit of the higher aspirations of the then-fledgling field. These aspirations—to solve practical problems, to develop a common methodology, to bridge the disciplines, and to develop or revise a theory—have never been fully realized. Widely accepted today, environmental perception and behavior mirrors the everyday differences within and between disciplines and thus is divided by theoretical ideology, substantive focus and views as to what constitutes data. As with the individual disciplines, I have successfully integrated environmental perception into my own work, moving it from the exceptional to the everyday, and with some regret, from the magic of 1970–72 to the science of today.     

Climate change adaptation at different levels of government: Characteristics and conditions of policy change

Climate change adaptation strategies that aim to minimize harm and maximize benefits related to climate change impacts have mushroomed at all levels of government in recent years. While many studies have explored barriers that stand in the way of their implementation, the factors determining their potential to mainstream adaptation into various sectors are less clear. In the present paper, we aim to address this gap for two international, six national, and six local adaptation strategies. Based on document analyses and 35 semi‐structured interviews, the 14 case studies also explore in how far the factors facilitating climate change adaptation are similar across levels of government or level‐specific. Although located at three different levels of government, we find that the 14 adaptation strategies analyzed here represent “one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements” that are characterized by voluntariness and a lack institutionalization. Since adaptation strategies are relatively weak coordination hubs that are unable to force adaptation onto sectoral policy agendas, they rely mainly on sectoral self‐interest in adapting to climate change, largely determined by problem pressure. We conclude that one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements are rarely adequate responses to complex challenges, such as climate change. Although climate change adaptation depends more on framework conditions such as problem pressure than on administrative or governance features, the findings presented here can help to understand under what circumstances adaptation is likely to make progress.     

Urban water demand and climate change

This paper presents a methodology for improved understanding of options for managing urban water demands under the uncertainties associated with climate change. It combines a sensitivity analysis of water supply with forecasts of water demand and examines how conservation efforts may offset deficits which result from climate change. It presents a case study of Nassau County, New York State, USA, that concludes that deficits projected for warmer climate scenarios can probably be alleviated by increased conservation. For scenarios of decreased precipitation, more extreme measures (eg rationing) may be necessary, illustrating the prudence of considering climate change in planning studies for communities which already experience water supply problems.     

Understanding climate,adapting to change: indigenous cultural values and climate change impacts in North Queensland

Many authors have suggested that Indigenous communities are especially vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, yet there remains a paucity of fine-grained geographic data on the particular impacts of climate change on specific places and on local communities, especially Australian Indigenous communities. While there are some recent studies being undertaken with Australia's Torres Strait Island people, our research takes up the issues of vulnerability and resilience with two Indigenous communities from different environments on the mainland in North Queensland. They are the Aboriginal peoples of the rainforest and reef environments of the Wet Tropics and the Aboriginal people of the discontiguous rainforest, grasslands, dry forests and marine environments of Cape York. The results demonstrate variability in their understandings of climate change and in their capacities to anticipate and manage its impacts, while at the same time illustrating some common held themes about environmental and cultural values, observed environmental change, attributions of cause and effect, and of climate in general.     

Modelling land use change and environmental impact

Land use change models are tools for understanding and explaining the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Recently, new models, combining knowledge and tools from biophysical and socio-economic sciences, have become available. This has resulted in spatially explicit models focussed on patterns of change as well as agent-based models focused on the underlying decision processes. These developments improve the use of land use change models in environmental impact studies. This special issue documents these developments: (i) analysing the system properties in a biophysical and socio-economic context at multiple scales; (ii) integrating spatially explicit land use change models in integrated assessment models; (iii) visualising and quantifying the potential effects of land use change in trade-off curves, to support land users and policy makers in their decisions; and (iv) modelling of the actual decision making process with agent-based modelling. A new promising future development is the incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing land use and changing environmental conditions and vice versa. Unfortunately such dynamic feedbacks between the socio-economic and biophysical model components are still not or only partially operational in current models and are therefore the most important challenge for land use and environmental modellers.     

Landscape change: Perceptions and physical measures

This paper addresses questions of affective responses of residents of rural Arizona to changes in proximate community and riparian landscapes and the congruence of their perceptions of change with physical measures of change in those landscapes. Based on findings and concepts from previous studies, perceptions of change were assessed using a mail survey. Physical measures of land use and vegetation change were obtained from aerial photography for two points in time spanning approximately 13 years and were analyzed using a geographic information system. Significant differences were found in perceptions of change in the community and riparian landscapes. In contrast with previous findings, a majority of respondents found the changes as either improving or having no effect on landscape quality. Those who were more frequent users of the riparian landscape tended to be more aware of changes in it. The findings also suggest challenges for planners and resource managers working in rural areas adjacent to riparian landscapes.     

Indicators for change: Taking a lead

The authors argue that sustainable development is a political concept arising from interactions between socio-economic and physical systems. As such, political values are implicit in many qualitative aspects of sustainability and its communication through indicators. In Great Britain, local government has played the lead role in Local Agenda 21, involving interest groups and community organisations in varying degrees, through public participation. However, the need for local solutions to sustainability problems also exists in Northern Ireland, where governmental bodies are unwilling or unable to accept responsibility for Local Agenda 21. In the Northern Ireland context, the evolving role of Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and the community sector in the indicators issue has been markedly different to that in the rest of the UK. There are potential problems concerning political values and mandates when the NGO/community sector assumes the lead in such tasks. The authors argue that, while criticisms of explicit and/or implied political values can be well grounded, addressing these must go beyond questions of objectivity in collection and presentation of indicators and projects must be understood by developing feedback and review mechanisms. The authors review the Northern Ireland sustainability indicators project and evaluate the feedback procedures in place. Lessons learnt from this exercise are explored with reference to (i) the current organisation of Local Agenda 21 within local government in Northern Ireland and (ii) national and international parallels.     

温度变化实验和温度循环筛选

本文阐述了温度变化试验和温度循环试验方法和对产品质量影响的重要性.