再论自然灾害风险的定义

系统地总结了现有自然灾害风险的定义,并指出其存在的问题。重新甄别了自然灾害系统的组成要素及其作用机制,深入分析了自然灾害风险的核心内涵,据此提出了自然灾害风险的新定义,即自然灾害风险是由自然灾害系统自身演化而导致未来损失的不确定性。结合定义的相关规则,对自然灾害风险新定义进行了符合性验证。新定义不仅深化了人们对自然灾害风险本身的认识,而且明确了自然灾害风险评估的内容。     

区域洪灾风险评价体系研究

针对国内外区域洪灾风险评价缺少系统规范体系现状,基于洪灾生命损失评价、经济损失评价,构建起以洪灾损失为核心的动态实用性的区域洪灾风险评价体系,实现由控制洪水向洪水管理转变.给出耦合致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体的区域洪灾风险定义,探讨了基于洪水分析、易损性分析、损失分析的区域洪灾风险评价流程图.针对区域洪灾风险评价不确定性,从被动破坏损失、主动防御减灾角度提出系统量化的区域洪灾损失经济评价指标,结合研究体系应用实际,给出区域洪灾风险评价体系的进一步完善策略.     

风险与重大岩土工程风险基本概念研究

论文在讨论风险定义演变过程的基础上,从哲学层面上,总结分析了风险的概念,认为风险定义具有本体地位,给出了风险的定义为:对人类有价值的事物产生不确定性后果的状态。论述了实在论和建构论的2种不同的风险观,提出了风险理论连续统一体的观点,即从实在论到建构论之间连续分布多种风险理论,各种连续的理论之间没有显著的不同。在分析重大岩土工程不确定基础上,本文提出重大岩土工程风险定义为工程失事对生命、财产、社会与环境以及对工程自身等造成的潜在损失及其概率的综合。该定义强调以重大岩土工程失事或稳定性为研究对象,分析对利益相关者造成的损失或负面影响,关键是确定损失的不确定性,并聚焦影响显著的不确定性因素。     

洪涝灾害风险评估研究进展

在气候变化与城市化背景下,洪涝灾害频发造成了严重经济损失和社会问题。科学的洪涝灾害风险评估是洪涝灾害风险管理的前提和需求。首先对国内外典型洪涝灾害进行介绍,用数据和实例说明洪涝灾害的影响之广与损失之巨。然后从理论和方法两个方面,对洪涝灾害风险评估国内外研究现状进行综述。重点介绍了洪涝灾害评估方法,包括:数理统计法、指标体系法、不确定性分析法和情景模拟法。情景模拟风险评估法是当前自然灾害风险评估研究的主流方向,该方法需要以暴雨洪涝模拟和洪灾损失评估为基础,后续梳理了雨洪仿真模型与损失评估模型研究进展。最后提出洪涝灾害风险评估的未来研究方向,主要有三个方面:风险评估综合指标体系的建立与评估指标权重的确定;风险评估框架的构建及模型适应性研究;区域洪涝风险演变趋势及驱动机制研究。     

自然灾害风险管理关键问题探讨

在目前的灾害研究中,自然灾害风险管理是热点研究领域,但是对一些关键问题的认识仍然不够清晰。通过参考和借鉴国内外灾害风险研究的相关成果,首先对自然灾害风险的定义进行了探讨,提出其最重要的特征是不确定性,其本质是不利影响,其作用对象是人类可持续发展;其次,总结了现有风险评估模型研究,包括风险特征类、风险要素类、风险情景类三大类,认为风险评估应该围绕风险管理目标而进行;最后,认为风险管理必须要体现与风险共存的理念,重视风险沟通与可接受风险研究,并提出了基于可接受风险的自然灾害风险管理体系。     

旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架

旱灾风险评估是定量认识旱灾风险机理、科学防控旱灾风险的重要基础性研究,在旱灾风险管理理论与实践中具有重要意义。根据旱灾风险的形成机制,在旱灾风险评估基本概念分析的基础上,提出并系统地阐述了由旱灾致灾因子危险性、承灾体的灾损敏感性、暴露和抗旱能力组成的旱灾风险系统。在此系统结构基础上提出了旱灾风险评估方法论和旱灾风险评估理论模式,进而建立了由致灾因子危险性分析、承灾体脆弱性分析、旱灾损失风险分析、旱灾风险评价、旱灾风险决策分析方法组成的旱灾风险评估方法体系,以及由干旱频率与旱灾损失关系曲线图、干旱频率空间分布图、旱灾损失空间分布图、与旱灾风险有关的致灾因子危险性分布图等各种专题图、旱灾风险区划图组成的旱灾风险评估应用模式体系。由上述旱灾风险系统结构、旱灾风险评估方法论和理论模式、旱灾风险评估方法体系和应用模式体系组成旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架,该理论框架在其它自然灾害风险评估中具有参考应用价值。     

风暴潮灾害风险的精细化评估研究

以龙口市北部沿海风暴潮灾害为研究对象,结合风与浪潮致灾因子、空间与地形等孕灾环境、承灾体类型等影响风暴潮灾害损失变化的有关因素,基于GIS空间分析技术建立了风暴潮灾害风险评估的定量模型,开展了风暴潮灾害风险的精细化评估。结果表明,在风速增大的情况下,淹没范围和可能性损失程度都相应增大;可能性损失呈有规律分布,离海岸线越近,风险值越大。研究结果可供沿海地区的风暴潮灾害风险区划和风险管理参考。     

中国与荷兰洪水风险分析方法的比较研究

基于洪水风险的定义,从洪灾发生概率、洪灾后果评估、风险评价指标和防洪标准经济优化决策原则等方面阐述了中荷两国在洪水风险分析研究方面的异同,初步分析了存在差别的原因以及两种方法的特点.在分别应用中国和荷兰现有风险评估方法分析安庆市堤防圈的洪水风险的基础上,探讨了将两国的风险分析方法进行整合的思路.算例表明,将堤防的工程风险与洪水本身出现的水文风险相结合,并考虑在不同洪水位下损失的差异的方法是与洪灾发生机理相符,综合考虑了各种不确定因素的、切合我国洪灾特点的一种值得进一步深入研究的新方法.     

地质灾害风险评价研究

地质灾害风险评价是对风险区遭受不同强度地质灾害的可能性及其可能造成的灾害损失进行定量分析和评价,是一项极具现实意义的重要研究课题。从区域上预测、预防地质灾害,对城市规划和工程选址,实现人与环境的和谐发展具有重要的现实意义。系统阐述了风险的定义、地质灾害风险评价研究现状、地质灾害风险评价内容与评价系统,在此基础上总结归纳了地质灾害风险评价的方法、类型及评价模型与实施,最后探讨了存在的问题和展望了地质灾害风险评价的发展趋向。     

区域滑坡风险评估中的风险区划与概率分析

区域滑坡风险评估应该建立在可靠的前期基础工作之上,而滑坡风险区划和滑坡概率分析是滑坡风险评估的主要技术支撑,相互之间具有层次链的关系。通过滑坡风险的类型研究介绍了三者之间的关联性。根据研究的理论方法,选择三峡库区万州区进行实例应用,说明滑坡风险区划和滑坡概率对滑坡风险评估的贡献作用。在此基础上,进行了滑坡风险分布、滑坡风险概率、滑坡风险损失综合评估,构成了较完整的滑坡风险评估体系。     

洪水风险分析的研究进展与展望

我国洪涝灾害频繁,损失极大,引人注目。洪水的风险分析工作是实施非工程措施,从而科学有效地防洪减灾的前提和基础。在概括系统风险定义和来源的基础上,对洪水风险分析的研究现状作了评述。洪水风险分析的研究方法已从直接积分法、蒙特卡罗法、均值一次两阶矩法,发展到改进一次两阶矩法、二次矩法和JC法等。综述了洪水风险分析的研究成果,同时建议：（1）明确并统一风险分析的内涵;（2）开展“风险分析的风险”的研究;（3）将熵理论引入到风险分析之中;（4）拓展风险分析的基本理论和研究方法,如应用模糊信息优化处理技术、灰色系统、未确知数学等。     

情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析

随着近年来自然灾害发生频次的增加与巨灾效应的不断涌现,人们对自然灾害风险分析提出了更高的要求与期望。然而,由于人们对"风险"认识的不全面与不系统,导致了灾害风险分析理论与技术水平的停滞不前。"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景"是我们对"风险"的诠释。据该定义可知,风险不仅仅只是着眼于过去,更重要的是要展望未来;风险不再只是历史灾难的统计,而是未来不利事件情景的分析。因此,"情景分析"成为风险研究的一项新手段,它不仅摒弃了传统方法仅着眼"过去"的局限性而实现从"过去"到"现在"到"未来"合理过渡的研究思路,而且摒弃了传统方法仅限于因子统计分析的局限性而实现系统分析的研究理念。以"情景分析"为技术手段,提出了情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析方法,旨在探讨对风险研究思路与技术的创新。     

地震活动与黄河下游大堤潜在危险性的探讨

黄河下游为一条地上悬河,存在着严重的地震危险性,未来强震会引起大堤失稳开裂,造成特大水灾。本文研究了黄河下游菏泽和滨州地区断裂及地震活动特征,对比历史上地震发生对黄河大堤的影响,认为黄河东明——粱山段和滨州段将是黄河下游具潜在危险的地段,并提出了防御措施,这对减轻或避免黄河下游地区因地震活动而引起的水灾具有重要意义。     

Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030–2100

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Use of computer models of flood inundation to facilitate communication in flood risk management

It is now widely recognised that good communication between multi-disciplinary stakeholders is central to effective flood risk management. Recent developments in Geographical Information Systems, increased availability of accurate digital terrain models from remotely sensed data sources and improved graphical computer interfaces have made the outputs from computer models of flood inundation easily accessible to the stakeholder community. As a consequence, predictions from such models are now being used routinely as a means of communication between engineers and other stakeholders in flood risk management. This paper provides a review of the modelling methods most appropriate for flood risk communication. These are one-dimensional models which are suitable for simulating flood risk at a catchment or sub-catchment scale and appropriate for communicating the impact of strategic flood management decisions and two-dimensional models which can be applied across a range of scales but, are now being regularly applied at the relatively small scale, less than 10 km², where they have the potential to inform and communicate disaster management decisions. The role of such models in communicating between modellers and non-modellers by providing a means for immediate visualisation of “the future” is discussed and illustrated by application to two case studies.     

The Risks from Flooding: Which Risks and Whose Perception?

Four main groups are considered in relation to the risk from flooding: the engineers involved in the design of flood alleviation schemes, emergency planners, the public, including both the population at risk from flooding and the rest of the population who will bear all or most of the cost of flood alleviation schemes and the researchers, such as geographers and economists concerned with flood hazards and scheme appraisal. It is argued that these different groups vary significantly in their selection and definition of risks from flooding as a focus of concern and that their definition of risk influences their expectations about future events and the appropriate response to those events. But the different groups share two tendencies: the expectation that the future will be a replication of the past; and the neglect of "uncertain uncertainties" in favour of known uncertainties of risk.     

中国未来10～15年地震灾害的风险评估

中国是世界上地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一，全国５０％以上的城市和７０％左右的大中城市位于７度及以上烈度区内．地震的发生给中国社会带来了很大的危害和损失，主要的损失分布在以北京为中心的首都圈地区和云南－四川－陕西－内蒙古相连的南北带上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震损失较大的地区．所谓地震灾害风险是指建立在各地防震减灾能力基础上的未来地震损失估汁，风险的特征是具有一定的不确定性．从中国的实际情况来看，东部沿海地区、首都圈地区及内陆的个别地区防震减灾能力较强，而未来地震危险性则以中国西部地区和华北地区为主．通过对中国未来１０—１５年地震风险的研究，可以认为，中国的东部地区虽然有一定的地震危险性，但由于其经济发达，减灾能力很强，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险较小；中国的中部（南北带）和西部地区地震危险性很大，同时经济欠发达，减灾能力较差，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险很大．     

Environmental knowledge and human experience: using a historical analysis of flooding in Ireland to challenge contemporary risk narratives and develop creative policy alternatives

Focusing on three of the largest coastal cities in the Republic of Ireland, this paper highlights the importance of a historical analysis of flood hazards in contextualising current events and potential future risks. Over the last decade, the cities of Dublin, Cork and Galway have experienced several major coastal, river and pluvial floods. In the aftermath of these floods, two distinct but related narratives have dominated public discourse and official responses. The first narrative presents recent floods as unprecedented and as possible evidence of climate change. The second constructs floods primarily as natural events and assumes that the optimal means of reducing flood losses is to prevent flood events. In this paper, I suggest that these narratives are not supported by a historical analysis of exposure and vulnerability to flood hazards in Irish cities. This paper draws primarily on newspaper archives to construct a record of past flooding that challenges these narratives in several ways and in doing so offers lessons for similar cities in other countries. I contend that these narratives are perpetuated by a narrow form of knowledge production (quantitative risk assessment) and a narrow range of data (numeric instrumental records). Incorporating a broader range of sources and data types into risk and vulnerability assessments may illuminate more creative strategies for reducing both contemporary and future flood losses.