Standardising and mapping open-source information for crisis regions: the case of post-conflict Iraq

Painting an accurate picture of the situation on the ground in countries in crisis is vital for the efficiency of humanitarian aid and reconstruction agencies. This study describes a method for standardising and mapping the plethora of open-source information. The test site for the study is post-conflict Iraq. Important information on aid distribution, reconstruction and security in Iraq can be derived from the reports of humanitarian aid agencies and the media, before being formatted, inserted into a database and mapped. The product is a visual, cartographic structure of otherwise random information, showing which organisations are working in the country, which thematic and geographic areas are being prioritized in the field, and which areas most frequently experience security events. This type of mapping not only highlights the overall working environment within different parts of the country, but it may also serve as a decision-making tool for donors and humanitarian aid agencies planning to deploy personnel.     

Disaster preparedness in a complex urban system: the case of Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

The city is a growing centre of humanitarian concern. Yet, aid agencies, governments and donors are only beginning to comprehend the scale and, importantly, the complexity of the humanitarian challenge in urban areas. Using the case study of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, this paper examines the analytical utility of recent research on complex urban systems in strengthening scholarly understanding of urban disaster risk management, and outlines its operational relevance to disaster preparedness. Drawing on a literature review and 26 interviews with actors from across the Government of Nepal, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, non‐governmental organisations, United Nations agencies, and at‐risk communities, the study argues that complexity can be seen as a defining feature of urban systems and the risks that confront them. To manage risk in these systems effectively, preparedness efforts must be based on adaptive and agile approaches, incorporating the use of network analysis, partnerships, and new technologies.     

The vulnerable do‐gooders: security strategies of German aid agencies

Humanitarian and development agencies have confronted growing insecurity in some of the regions in which they work over the course of the past decade. Consequently, aid agencies are changing their approach to security issues. Compared to aid agencies from other countries, especially the United Kingdom and the United States, German aid agencies have been relatively slow to adopt security measures. In addition, the security measures they have selected differ from one agency to another, even in comparable security contexts. The literature on organisational learning helps to explain these differences. The findings show that external and internal organisational factors influence an aid agency's choice of a particular security measure. The different responses of German aid agencies to the changing security environment demonstrate that security measures are not only influenced by an organisation's identity but also can be a way for them to demonstrate their identity and thereby distinguish themselves from other actors that deliver aid.     

一种基于BP网络和粒子群算法的拱坝可靠度分析方法

为了进行极限状态方程不明确的大型结构可靠度分析,提出了结合神经网络和粒子群优化计算拱坝可靠度的算法。确定性力学分析采用ANSYS软件,利用BP神经网络来模拟高度非线性映射关系的功能函数,基于罚函数和粒子群优化法进行可靠指标计算。综合C语言、ANSYS的APDL二次开发以及MATLAB混合编程技术,编制了该算法的可靠度分析程序。算例表明,该方法适应于隐式功能函数的复杂结构可靠度分析。     

基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络的暴雨洪涝灾害风险辨识--以闽三角地区为例

灾害风险辨识是灾害有效防控的重要环节之一,辨识体系与风险水平之间的非线性复杂关系使研究方法向精细化、智能化转型。闽三角地区是我国重要的沿海经济开放区,独特的“山-海”自然地理格局、起伏破碎的地形、高发的台风暴潮和极端短时降雨特征使其常遭受洪涝灾害侵扰。以闽三角为例,将生态服务价值纳入风险评价体系,构建基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络模型的风险辨识方法,旨在完善评价体系的同时,弥补传统评价方法存在的非线性缺陷和主观依赖,并以此为基础,进一步探究该地区风险空间分布规律和空间格局,为灾害风险防控提供思路。结果表明:①基于GIS多准则评价与BP神经网络模型的风险辨识方法能够系统准确的认知暴雨洪涝灾害风险水平与空间分布;②高风险区主要分布在河流沿岸、河口处、湾区,且人口、经济活动较活跃地区,城市化发展快速区与缓慢区相比,更容易遭受洪涝灾害威胁;③洪涝风险以高-高和低-低集聚为主,风险根据空间自相关性特征分为“整体随机”“局部随机-邻域集聚”和“整体集聚”三种类型。最后根据风险特征将闽三角地区高风险分为“厦门集美版块”“泉州湾区版块”“漳州县区版块”,分别提出灾害治理建议。     

广西夏季异常降雨量的前馈网络预报模型

以1957～2001年广西37个基准站的夏季(6～8月)平均降水量为基础,将夏季降水量距平百分率大于等于20%、小于等于-23%作为异常多雨和少雨年,建立广西夏季降水量"0、1"化的异常序列,利用前馈网络的非线性映射技术,构造广西夏季降水异常预报模型.通过对该模型的预报检验分析发现,该预报模型不仅能准确地报出历史样本的异常多雨和异常少雨年,并且对2002～2004年的独立样本预报也全部正确.这为异常降水的短期气候预测业务工作提供了新的思路和方法.     

Nutritional response to the 1998 Bangladesh flood disaster: Sphere minimum standards in disaster response

In this study we use a cross-sectional survey to evaluate the nutritional response to the 1998 Bangladesh Flood Disaster by 15 relief agencies using standards developed by the Sphere Project. The Sphere Project is a recent attempt by agencies around the world to establish universal minimum standards for the purpose of ensuring quality and accountability in disaster response. The main outcomes measured were resources allocated to disaster relief types of relief activities and percentage of agencies meeting selected Sphere food aid and nutrition indicators. Although the process of nutritional response was measured, specific nutritional and health outcomes were not assessed. This review found that self-reported disaster and nutritional resources varied widely between implementing agencies, ranging from US $58,947 to $15,908,712. The percentage of resources these agencies allocated to food aid and nutritional response also varied, ranging from approximately 6 to 99 per cent of total resources. Agencies met between 8 and 83 per cent of the specific Sphere indicators which were assessed Areas in which performance was poor included preliminary nutritional analysis; beneficiary participation and feedback; disaster preparedness during non-emergency times; monitoring of local markets and impact assessment. Agencies were generally successful in areas of core humanitarian response, such as targeting the vulnerable (83 per cent) and monitoring and evaluating the process of disaster response (75 per cent). The results here identify both strengths and gaps in the quality of humanitarian response in developing nations such as Bangladesh. However, they also raise the question of implementing a rights-based approach to disaster response in nations without a commitment to meeting positive human rights in non-disaster times.     

粗集神经网络在煤与瓦斯突出预测中的应用

结合粗集理论的属性约简功能和人工神经网络的非线性映射特性,提出了煤与瓦斯突出的一种预测方法.首先用粗集理论对训练样本进行属性约简和降噪,然后将经过预处理的训练样本代入神经网络进行训练,获得稳定的网络结构,最后用训练好的神经网络对待测样本进行预测.实际应用表明:瓦斯压力、瓦斯放散速度、地质构造、煤的坚固性系数和开采深度是煤与瓦斯突出预测的必要指标;粗集神经网络模型具有较高的预测精度和良好的实用性,是一种十分有效的煤与瓦斯突出预测方法.     

Embedded wisdom or rooted problems? Aid workers' perspectives on local social and political infrastructure in post‐tsunami Aceh

This paper analyses the role of local social, cultural, and political institutions in post‐disaster reconstruction projects. It contends that such institutions are important considerations within community‐driven reconstruction initiatives, but are often viewed with ambivalence by external aid organisations. This paper draws upon in‐depth qualitative interviews with aid workers involved in the post‐tsunami reconstruction in Aceh, Indonesia, to establish: (i) what roles community institutions were suited to play in the reconstruction; (ii) what were the limitations of community institutions when engaging with external aid agencies; (iii) how did external aid agencies engage with local community institutions; and (iv) how did external aid agencies perceive community institutions.     

基于Elman神经网络模型的我国农业受灾面积预测研究

农业受灾面积顶测是从以往受灾面积的数据中总结受灾面积变化的规律性，并用这个规律动态地顶测未来的受灾面积．人工神经网络的诸多特性能较好地处理农业灾害顶测问题。为此，介绍了Elman神经网络的结构、算法和基于Elman神经网络的农业受灾面积顶测．实验结果和自回归顶测对照表明，Elman神经网络的顶测方法更精确。     

基于主成分分析与遗传优化BP神经网络的风电场短期功率预测研究

为降低风电场弃风率及对电网稳定性影响,对风电场短期功率进行准确预测显得十分重要。针对传统BP神经网络泛化能力差、网络收敛速度慢等问题,建立了一种基于主成分分析与遗传优化BP神经网络相结合的风电场短期功率预测模型。首先,利用主成分分析法对风电场原始气象数据进行分析,将得到的独立变量作为BP神经网络的输入;然后利用遗传算法确定了神经网络的最优初始权值和阈值的大致范围,并用L-M算法对BP网络权值和阈值进行细化训练;最后,利用中国北方某风电场实际运行数据进行验证,结果表明,所建立的预测模型合理有效,不仅可以加快BP神经网络收敛速度,减少预测误差,还可以提高风电场短期输出功率的预测精度,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

The Role of Food Aid in Drought and Recovery: Oxfam's North Turkana (Kenya) Drought Relief Programme, 1992–94

Regional droughts carry the seeds of catastrophe: the immediate risk is famine; the long-term risk is destitution. Preventing both situations is an appropriate, if not essential, goal for relief agencies. In the past, responses to hunger in Turkana District (north-west Kenya) have taken the form of traditional feeding programmes. A better understanding of the boom/bust cycles in pastoralist systems has, however, produced new relief strategies. A central tenet of these strategies is the acceptance that relief aid should assume two roles: humanitarian—to overcome food deficits—and economic—to overcome 'income' deficits. Arguments in favour of a broader role for food aid are tested with a case study of a drought relief programme in north Turkana between 1992–1994. Field studies confirmed that when food aid is integrated as an asset into household resources, it can strengthen economic recovery. Ultimately, the extent to which relief operations are able to protect both people's lives and their livelihoods is the key to more sustainable development in drought-prone areas.     

Formal and informal material aid following the 2010 Haiti earthquake as reported by camp dwellers

Following the 2010 Haiti earthquake, more than two million people moved to temporary camps, most of which arose spontaneously in the days after the earthquake. This study focuses on the material assistance people in five Port‐au‐Prince camps reported receiving, noting the differences between assistance from formal aid agencies and from ‘informal’ sources such as family. Seven weeks after the earthquake, 32% of camp dwellers reported receiving no assistance whatsoever; 55% had received formal aid, typically a tent or tarpaulins; and 40% had received informal aid, usually in the form of cash transfers from family living abroad. While people were grateful for any material aid, cash was more frequently considered timely and more effective than aid‐in‐kind. Should this study be indicative of the greater displaced population, aid agencies should consider how they might make better use of cash transfers as an aid modality.     

深水平台施工过程自然风险定量评估

在分析现有风险理论的基础上,结合海洋施工实际,提出了一种对海洋施工自然风险进行定量评估的模型。根据目标系统各风险事件与影响因素之间存在高度非线性复杂映射的特点,提出了利用BP神经网络拟合方法,对主要风险事件发生概率进行量化的模型。针对传统的梯度下降优化算法收敛速度慢的特点,采用可避免计算Hesse矩阵的Levenberg-Marquardt算法来训练神经网络。这一模型可以模拟专家评价,并准确地按照专家的评定法则进行估算,具有一定的通用性。     

Lessons for long-term social recovery following the 2004 tsunami: Community,livelihoods, tourism and housing

The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 galvanized world attention like no other natural disaster before. Unprecedented amounts of aid were given and a record number of international aid agencies were involved in relief and recovery operations. Major reviews of the response to the disaster have suggested that the immediate relief effort was better than expected. However, weaknesses in the longer term recovery work were identified within months of the disaster and yet the same weaknesses were being confirmed four and five years later. Even though many studies have been published on the tsunami disaster there are still many lessons to be learnt, particularly in relation to social recovery as distinct from the restoration of destroyed or damaged infrastructure. This paper presents an overview of the findings of a study that was conducted over a period of four years across five different tsunami-affected local areas of Sri Lanka and southern India. The study focused on lessons to be learnt in relation to rebuilding community, restoring livelihoods, recreating an appropriate tourism industry and providing relevant housing and planned settlements for disaster survivors. The paper argues that ‘build back better’ is possible, but only if ‘asset replacement’ strategies are replaced by integrated physical and social planning to address local needs in culturally appropriate ways. Much of what the authors advocate may seem to be little more than ‘common sense’ and many of our findings echo those of many other post-tsunami evaluations. Yet patient and well-integrated approaches to disaster recovery are all too rare in a world that is experiencing so many natural disasters. Because the 2004 tsunami evoked an unprecedented global response it is important to ensure that the lessons of the recovery effort are clearly learnt and this paper aims to convert research findings into a clear strategy for long-term social recovery.     

Why Aid Agencies Need Better Understanding of the Communities They Assist: The Experience of Food Aid in Rwandan Refugee Camps

Refugee views on food aid reveal the ignorance of the international community regarding Rwandan culture, economy and politics. This ignorance carries a number of costs. On one level, the main cost is that a professional service is not carried out to the best of one's ability. Ignorance of Rwanda's North–South divide, for instance, has caused agencies to be insensitive to in-camp discrimination based upon regional identity and its impact on programme activities. On a deeper level, agency ignorance about Rwandan culture, economy and the dynamics of camp politics, reduces refugee confidence in humanitarian agencies and workers. Better information would not only result in the greater likelihood of appropriate responses to specific needs, but would also encourage greater credibility in the political arena where the ultimate stake is to see lasting peace and a dignified return of refugees to their homes.     

War and Food Security in Eritrea and Ethiopia, 1998–2000

This paper examines the 1998–2000 'border' war between Eritrea and Ethiopia and its continuing legacies from the perspective of food security.¹ Focusing on the food crisis that hit both countries during the same period and was allowed to develop into a famine in southeast Ethiopia, it argues that this was linked with the war in more ways than hitherto recognised. Such connections can be appreciated only by taking a longer-term view of the decline of the rural economy of which this food crisis was part, factoring in the role played by this and other conflicts that have flared up in the region. An analysis of this kind might have helped donors and aid agencies to respond more effectively both to short-term humanitarian needs in the midst of an inter-state war and to the need for longer-term support for food security in a region beset by endemic conflict.     

New Humanitarianism: Does It Provide a Moral Banner for the 21st Century?

There is a 'new humanitarianism' for the new millennium. It is 'principled', 'human-rights based' and politically sensitive. Above all it is new. It marks a break from the past and a rejection of the traditional principles that guided humanitarianism through the last century. New humanitarians reject the political naivety of the past, assess the long-term political impact of relief and are prepared to see humanitarian aid used as a tool to achieve human rights and political goals. New Humanitarianism is compelling, in tune with our times and offers a new moral banner for humanitarians to cling to as we enter the new millennium. Or does it? After outlining the key elements of new humanitarianism, including the human rights approach and developmental relief, the paper spells out some of the dangers. The author claims that new humanitarianism results in an overt politicisation of aid in which agencies themselves use relief as a tool to achieve wider political goals. The paper shows how this approach has spawned a new conditionality which allowsfor aid to be withheld and has produced a moral hierarchy of victims in which some are more deserving than others. The paper concludes with a plea for a revival of the principle of universalism as the first step to a new set of principles.     

Livelihood patterns of displaced households in greater khartoum

Members of impoverished households in Greater Khartoum, who have been displaced from their homelands by famine and civil war, gain a livelihood by utilising a wide variety of subsistence activities and sources. These include moonlighting, income diversification and pooling, exchange relations, scavenging, relief supplies from aid agencies and remittances from relatives working in other areas. This finding challenges the widely held view of the displaced as dependent and parasitic on the wider urban community. Several public policies are identified which have a detrimental effect on the livelihood of the displaced.     

Disaster preparedness for farmers: A methodology

In summary, four elements are considered to be essential for introducing a national system of agricultural disaster preparedness planning:

• (a) the initiative should be taken by the Ministry of Agriculture (or its equivalent); within project areas, the initiative should be taken by the project authority, although preferably within a national system;
• (b) contingency planning should form part of an annual/ seasonal agricultural production planning; appropriate budgetary allocations should be made at this stage;
• (c) regional or district agricultural officers should be given specific responsibility to collect relevant environmental and land use information for disaster-prone areas and to prepare relevant contingency plans; and
• (d) all agricultural officials, from the Ministry down to the lowest field level, should be trained in how to make and use disaster preparedness plans; local government representatives and officials should also be trained.

Training is regarded as the key element. This is a field where international agencies such as FAO and UNDRO could assist governments to improve their state of disaster preparedness. Voluntary agencies could also play an important role in training community leaders in the identification of disaster preparedness needs and possibilities.