Modelling future copper ore grade decline based on a detailed assessment of copper resources and mining

The concept of “peak oil” has been explored and debated extensively within the literature. However there has been comparatively little research examining the concept of “peak minerals”, particularly in-depth analyses for individual metals. This paper presents scenarios for mined copper production based upon a detailed assessment of global copper resources and historic mine production. Scenarios for production from major copper deposit types and from individual countries or regions were developed using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model (GeRS-DeMo). These scenarios were extended using cumulative grade-tonnage data, derived from our resource database, to produce estimates of potential rates of copper ore grade decline.The scenarios indicate that there are sufficient identified copper resources to grow mined copper production for at least the next twenty years. The future rate of ore grade decline may be less than has historically been the case, as mined grades are approaching the average resource grade and there is still significant copper endowment in high grade ore bodies. Despite increasing demand for copper as the developing world experiences economic growth, the economic and environmental impacts associated with increased production rates and declining ore grades (particularly those relating to energy consumption, water consumption and greenhouse gas emissions) will present barriers to the continued expansion of the industry. For these reasons peak mined copper production may well be realised during this century.     

Effects of Metal Mining and Milling on Boundary Waters of Yellowstone National Park, USA

/ Aquatic resources in Soda Butte Creek within Yellowstone National Park, USA, continue to be threatened by heavy metals from historical mining and milling activities that occurred upstream of the park's boundary. This includes the residue of gold, silver, and copper ore mining and processing in the early 1900s near Cooke City, Montana, just downstream of the creek's headwaters. Toxicity tests, using surrogate test species, and analyses of metals in water, sediments, and macroinvertebrate tissue were conducted from 1993 to 1995. Chronic toxicity to test species was greater in the spring than the fall and metal concentrations were elevated in the spring with copper exceeding water quality criteria in 1995. Tests with amphipods using pore water and whole sediment from the creek and copper concentrations in the tissue of macroinvertebrates and fish also suggest that copper is the metal of concern in the watershed. In order to understand current conditions in Soda Butte Creek, heavy metals, especially copper, must be considered important factors in the aquatic and riparian ecosystems within and along the creek extending into Yellowstone National Park.KEY WORDS: Mining; Metals; Toxicity; Biomonitoring; Copper; Yellowstone National Park     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

A regional environmental information system for analyzing and predicting the impacts of nonferrous mining on an agricultural environment

Mineral exploitation is a necessary component of China's economic development goals. Such exploitation brings with it the potential for serious environmental degradation. Careful environmental impact assessments of mining projects are required in order to implement China's environmental protection law and identify measures for protecting surrounding agricultural environments. This article describes an environmental information system that has been developed for the purpose of assisting with the environmental impact assessment of nonferrous mining operations with a particular focus on agricultural impacts. An application of the environmental information system to the Yongping copper mine, located in Jiangxi Province, is discussed. The role of the environmental information system is analyzing and predicting soil contamination from heavy metals and other types of impacts from this mining operation is described. The environmental information system is designed for implementation on an IBM PC/XT microcomputer. The experience gained from the Yongping copper mine application and the growing popularity of microcomputers in China indicate a significant potential for the effective use of a microcomputer-based environmental information system in other parts of China.     

Good deposits are not enough: Mining labor productivity analysis in the copper industry in Chile and Peru 1992–2009

Chile and Peru produce almost 45% of world’s mine copper output. This situation reflects their natural endowment and mining tradition, but is also the result of development processes undertaken over the last decades. As a result, both countries multiplied its mine copper production in more than 3 times in the last 20 years. Mining labor productivity played a central role achieving these amazing growth rates. Although there is a consensus about the relevance of this variable for the mining industry, the specific factors behind labor productivity changes are not completely understood.     

Montana’s Clark Fork River Basin Task Force: A Vehicle for Integrated Water Resources Management?

This article examines what is generally considered to be an unattainable goal in the western United States: integrated water resources management (IWRM). Specifically, we examine an organization that is quite unique in the West, Montana’s Clark Fork River Basin Task Force (Task Force), and we analyze its activities since its formation in 2001 to answer the question: are the activities and contributions of the Task Force working to promote a more strongly integrated approach to water resources management in Montana? After reviewing the concepts underlying IWRM, some of the issues that have been identified for achieving IWRM in the West, and the Montana system of water right allocation and issues it faces, we adapt Mitchell’s IWRM framework and apply it to the analysis of the Task Force’s activities in the context of IWRM. In evaluating the physical, interaction, and protocol/planning/policy components of IWRM, we find that the Task Force has been contributing to the evolution of Montana’s water resources management towards this framework, though several factors will likely continue to prevent its complete realization. The Task Force has been successful in this regard because of its unique nature and charge, and because of the authority and power given it by successive Montana legislatures. Also critical to the success of the organization is its ability to help translate into policy the outcomes of legal and quasi-judicial decisions that have impacted the state’s water resources management agency.     

On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.     

Modeling Effects of Natural Flow Restoration on Metals Fate and Transport in a Mountain Stream Impacted by Mine Waste1

Abstract: The effects of natural flow restoration on metals fate and transport in the Upper Tenmile Creek Watershed, Montana, were modeled using the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). This 50‐km² watershed has over 150 historic abandoned mines, including mine waste rock and tailings, as well as adits discharging acid mine drainage, and is the primary drinking water supply for the City of Helena. Water supply diversions almost completely dewater some stream reaches during summer low flows, but the city is considering a new drinking water source and restoration of natural flows in Tenmile Creek as part of acid mine drainage remediation and broader aquatic habitat restoration. One dimensional steady‐state simulation of total recoverable cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc in the mainstem was performed, and the model was calibrated to June 2000 base‐flow data. Representative low‐flows in August and high‐flow snowmelt conditions in June were modeled using mean monthly natural flow estimates from the U.S. Geological Survey and representative USEPA metals concentrations data. The modeling showed that total recoverable metals concentrations, and especially loads, can vary significantly among input locations and over time in the watershed. Some data gaps limit evaluation of variability and increase uncertainty in several locations. Model results indicated, however, that natural low‐ and high‐flow restoration by itself can reduce some metals concentrations in the mainstem compared to June 2000 values, which were influenced by significant water diversion. Some values (such as Zn) may still exceed standards during natural August low flow due to the remaining high concentrations and loads in the primary inputs to the mainstem. Others (such as Cu) can increase during high flow due to remaining mine waste sources and loading of particulate Cu associated with erosion and transport of solids. Greater than 50% reduction in concentrations and loads from some of the main tributaries may be necessary to meet all standards, especially for potential particulate loads with higher flows in June.     

Exploration and discovery of Australia's copper,nickel, lead and zinc resources 1976–2005

Examination of copper, nickel, lead and zinc (base metals) exploration expenditure and discovery in Australia over the period 1976–2005 reveals some significant trends. Australia's base metal resource inventory grew substantially as a consequence of successful exploration over the period, both through addition of resources at known deposits and new discoveries, notably a small number of very large deposits that underpin the resource base. In 2005, Australia had the world's largest economic demonstrated resources (EDR) of nickel, lead and zinc, and the second largest EDR of copper. Growth in nickel resources has been especially strong owing to discovery of large laterite resources in the late 1990s. Resource life, in average terms based on current EDR and production, is approximately 30 years for lead and zinc, 40 years for nickel sulphide (120 years for all nickel EDR) and 50 years for copper. Despite this success, major increases in production over the period (copper, nickel and zinc output increasing 3–4 fold, lead output doubling) and a fall in discovery rates during much of the 1990s means that resource life for lead and zinc is lower and nickel sulphide comparable now to that in 1976; only the resource life of copper has grown substantially over the period. Current published ore reserves are sufficient for at least 15 years operations at current production levels, but only a small number of the largest deposits currently being mined are likely to still be in production in 20 years. However, several mines have substantial inferred resources that may allow production beyond current mine reserves and there is a substantial number of undeveloped deposits that may provide the foundation for extended or new mining operations. The discovery record is strongly cyclical with resource growth for all the base metals punctuated by the discovery of giant (world-class) deposits each decade: these underpin current and future production. Recent higher metal prices and renewed interest in base metals, especially nickel, has reversed a 10 year decline in base metal exploration attended by reduced rates of discovery and resulted in record expenditure, new nickel, copper and zinc discoveries, and increased resources at a number of existing deposits, notably the Olympic Dam copper–uranium–gold deposit. With the exception of the Prominent Hill copper–gold and West Musgrave nickel–copper deposits, most of the recent discoveries, especially zinc (-lead) deposits, are of small tonnage (some of high grade). Nevertheless, these new discoveries have helped stimulate further exploration and also highlight the potential for further discoveries in little-explored provinces, especially those under regolith and shallow sedimentary cover.     

Spoken but not Heard: the promise of the precautionary principle for natural resource development

Too often, mining developments provide short-term jobs and taxes, and long-term environmental and community degradation. The 'precautionary principle', as practised by the European Union and increasingly by other nations, may provide an opportunity for local communities and others who bear the brunt of mining to employ a cautionary approach to mine permitting. Using the case of the Zortman-Landusky gold mine in Montana, the article illustrates how the precautionary principle might have precluded the tremendous losses suffered by the Fort Belknap residents who live near the now abandoned mine. The Native Americans and other protestors against the mine were correct in their worries about mine drainage affecting their watercourses and the precautionary principle might have limited mine development. The case also illustrates that economic data on mining companies need to go well beyond simple reclamation bond capability in order to avoid bankruptcy resulting in the neighbours and the government having to pay for clean-up.     

Metalliferous sediments in the Atlantis II Deep—Assessing the geological and economic resource potential and legal constraints

Projected increases in demand and thus increasing metal prices have brought the exploration and exploitation of marine mineral resources back into focus. The Atlantis II Deep, located in the central Red Sea between Saudi Arabia and Sudan, is one of the largest marine sulfide deposits known, with high concentrations of metals such as zinc, copper, silver and gold. However, little is known about the economic potential of marine minerals as well as the legal constraints. Our geological assessment shows that the deep is similar in grades and scale to large land-based deposits. Its economic potential is far from negligible. The total present value of possible gross revenues for the four metals zinc, copper, silver and gold ranges from 3.03 to 5.29 billion US$, depending on the assumptions made concerning future price development, mass calculation and discount rate. From a legal perspective, a general duty to cooperate in the exploration and exploitation of non-living resources located in disputed maritime areas is identified in both customary international law and in UNCLOS. It is submitted that a joint development agreement is one means of ensuring compliance with this duty in general and in the case of the Atlantis II Deep in particular.     

Spoken but not Heard: The promise of the precautionary principle for natural resource development

Too often, mining developments provide short-term jobs and taxes, and long-term environmental and community degradation. The 'precautionary principle', as practised by the European Union and increasingly by other nations, may provide an opportunity for local communities and others who bear the brunt of mining to employ a cautionary approach to mine permitting. Using the case of the Zortman-Landusky gold mine in Montana, the article illustrates how the precautionary principle might have precluded the tremendous losses suffered by the Fort Belknap residents who live near the now abandoned mine. The Native Americans and other protestors against the mine were correct in their worries about mine drainage affecting their watercourses and the precautionary principle might have limited mine development. The case also illustrates that economic data on mining companies need to go well beyond simple reclamation bond capability in order to avoid bankruptcy resulting in the neighbours and the government having to pay for clean-up.     

The feasibility of decontamination of reduced saline sediments from copper using the electrokinetic process

The remediation of metal contamination in estuarine and reduced sediments is another challenge for the electrokinetic process. Problems result from the complex chemical composition of saline reduced sediments. In the experiments described here copper was added into saline reduced sediments to simulate the natural situation. Two constant voltages were applied across the electrokinetic cell to investigate the effect of an increase in potential difference on the electrokinetic process. Acetic acid at pH 6 and 4 was also added to the cathode in separate experiments to enhance copper removal. The results from this study showed that in the unenhanced experiments most of copper remained in the soil and was unaffected by the electrokinetic process. At the end of unenhanced electrokinetic experiments, the copper concentration was found only to be slightly changed in the anode region. Up to 21% of the copper was found precipitated near the anode when the applied voltage was 10V and this increased to 25% when the applied voltage was 7V. In the enhanced electrokinetic experiments up to 98% of copper was removed from section 1 and precipitated again in sections 2 and 3. This indicates that a significant amount copper removal from the saline sediments may be achieved by the enhanced electrokinetic process.     

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: a case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors.     

Reclamation of wastes contaminated by copper,lead, and zinc

Waste materials containing toxic levels of copper, lead, and zinc, such as mine and smelter wastes, present difficult conditions for the establishment of vegetation. This article reviews the many attempts which have been made to reclaim these wastes. Inert wastes from mining and quarrying operations, such as slate quarry waste and certain colliery shales, seem to be good materials for reclaiming wastes contaminated by copper, lead, and zinc. Organic wastes, such as sewage sludge and domestic refuse, may provide only a temporary visual improvement and stabilization of the toxic materials.Nontolerant plant materials may often be planted directly on modern waste materials, which are less toxic than they were in the past. However, tolerant plant materials are needed for revegetating waste materials produced by early and more primitive extraction methods.     

Characteristics of a bioxalate chelating extraction process for removal of chromium,copper and arsenic from treated wood

The disposal of wood waste treated with chromated copper arsenate (CCA) is a problem in many countries. We have proposed a novel chelating extraction technique for CCA-treated wood using bioxalate, a solution of oxalic acid containing sufficient sodium hydroxide to adjust the pH to 3.2, which is an effective way to obtain an extraction efficiency of 90% for chromium, copper, and arsenic. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the characteristics of bioxalate extraction of CCA-treated wood. Extractions of CCA-treated western hemlock chips with solutions of bioxalate, oxalic acid, and sodium hydroxide were carried out. The use of bioxalate was confirmed as the most effective extraction technique for chromium, copper and arsenic, with an efficiency of 90%. Extraction with simple oxalic acid was ineffective for copper (less than 40% extraction efficiency), but effective for chromium and arsenic, with 90% efficiency. Sodium hydroxide showed a similar tendency, being ineffective for chromium and copper (less than 20% extraction efficiency), but relatively effective for arsenic (around 70–80% efficiency). We also discovered an interesting phenomenon whereby the addition of sodium hydroxide to a simple oxalic acid solution during the oxalic acid extraction progress resulted in dramatically increased extraction efficiency for copper, chromium and arsenic, up to 90%. Although oxalic acid was ineffective for copper extraction, the addition of sodium hydroxide during the oxalic acid extraction process rendered it effective.     

INSTREAM FLOW REQUIREMENTS IN THE POWDER RIVER COAL BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As coal resources are developed in the Northern Great Plains regions, new reservoirs are being considered to meet expanding water demands. The amount of water available for industrial diversion, however, could be limited by regulations that require minimum flow levels to be maintained downstream of the reservoir sites. Computer simulations of potential reservoirs were used to determine to what extent, if any, instream flow requirements might limit the ability of reservoirs to deliver industrial water supplies. Data on instream flow requirements, potential reservoir sites, and historic runoff were input for the simulation of the Powder River Region of Montana and Wyoming. Results of the simulations compared the maximum amount of water available for industrial diversion with and without requiring instream flow criteria.     

The copper and aluminum industries: A review of structural changes

In this article the evolution of the aluminium and copper industries is examined, with a view to deriving policy options open to Third World copper producers, which face a declining rate in the growth of consumption. Market structure, company behaviour and performance are analysed for both industries. The impact of energy and general economic crisis in copper and aluminium industries is assessed and market concentration trends are discussed. We conclude that Third World copper producers must change their basic orientation and become seriously involved in market development.     

World copper market, 1973–1982, and international stabilization policies

This article critically examines international price stabilization policy in relation to the main features of the world copper market and the structural changes that have affected the industry in the decade up to 1982. The first section summarizes the main features of the world copper market, briefly discussing the principal structural changes; the second part examines the recent pattern of investment in copper and changes in ownership of some copper producing companies resulting from the need for improved cash flows due to the adverse effects of the recession; and the third part analyses the practical and theoretical issues relating to the question of price instability. A number of formidable problems are likely to arise from such price stabilization policies and it is concluded that it is because of these difficulties that the policies have not been implemented. Consequently, international commodity agreements designed to minimize or avoid price instability have proved difficult to conclude. New questions on which consensus is likely should be examined to promote intergovernmental co-operation, and hence market stability. With that end in view, this article lists some new questions that could form the basis of an agenda for exploratory intergovernmental discussions on copper.     

Viability of processing in copper-mining areas : An economic analysis

Although copper is exported mainly in the form of semi-refined or refined copper, exports of copper in the form of ores and concentrates increased their share of world copper exports in the 1970s. These exports mainly originate from copper-mining areas with limited access to the inputs required for stages subsequent to mining. This article surveys the options open to copper-producing countries to increase their revenue from copper, and concludes that changes in the composition of exports to favour the export of more processed forms of copper would require substantial changes in the economic structure of a country. Trade barriers are not felt to constitute a substantial obstacle to world trade in refined or semi-fabricated copper.