Oil to 2000

Current surplus oil production capacity had its origins in the price increases of the 1970s. Those increases encouraged both energy conservation and the entry of new producers. Recent increases in oil demand reflect the belief among energy users that in real terms in the long term, prices will be stable. There is good reason to believe that this will be so, even at the current rate of increase it will be 15 years before demand matches current capacity. Given that situation it is difficult to see OPEC following any other pricing policy than the one currently in place. In the meantime market prices will further encourage vertical integration.     

Chinese resource security policies and the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market

This paper reviews the restructuring of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market in the wake of the rise of the Chinese steel industry. Prior to the 2000s, this market was characterised by two key features—high firm-level concentration on both the producer and consumer sides, and price determination through annually negotiated benchmark pricing between Australian mining and Japanese steel firms. However, owing to rapid growth in the Chinese steel industry and its emergence as the region's principal iron ore consumer, the Asia-Pacific iron ore market has been dramatically restructured during the last decade. This process has been accelerated since 2005 by Chinese governmental resource security policies, which have sought to address current record high iron ore prices through the use of foreign investment to sponsor new market entrants and the formation of an import cartel amongst the Chinese steel firms. This paper evaluates how these policies have driven restructuring in the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, through an analysis of the growth of China's steel industry, Chinese resource security policies aimed at lowering iron ore import costs, and their effects upon the regional market's ownership structure and price determination mechanisms. It argues that while Chinese investment and cartelisation policies have catalysed significant changes to the ownership and pricing structures of the Asia-Pacific iron ore market, they have carried only mixed benefits for the Chinese steel industry's resource security.     

Measurement of market power for the environmentally regulated Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry

For industries in which where market prices of certain inputs are not available, measuring the degree of market power by using the markup over the marginal market cost may be inappropriate. With regard to the Korean iron and steel manufacturing industry, which is subject to environmental regulations, the calculation of the price of abatement capital is hindered by a lack of relevant data. To increase the reliability of market power markups, this paper estimates the restricted cost function in which abatement capital is assumed to be quasi-fixed at an optimal level and the supply relation. The degree of market power for the industry, measured as the ratio of the estimated market power markup to the supply price, was estimated to be 0.54 on average between 1982 and 2001. The results indicate that ignoring environmental regulations can overstate the degree of market power by approximately 12%.     

RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND IN METRO MANILA1

ABSTRACT: An econometric demand function is estimated for residential water use in Metropolitan Manila. Regression results using annual time series data from 1970 to 1981 show that residential water consumption responds to changes in economic variables. Residential demand showed an income (household) elasticity of 0.542 and a combined price elasticity of -0.287. Implications for planning and management are discussed.     

RURAL RESIDENTIAL WATER DEMAND: AN ECONOMETRIC AND SIMULATION ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: This study proposes that demand management through pricing policies can be used in conjunction with supply management to solve water supply problems. Economic principles are shown to apply to rural residential water use. A demand function for water was developed based on cross-sectional water use data collected in Kentucky. Price was found to be a significant determinant of the quantity of water demanded. A constant price elasticity of -0.92 was found. The demand function was used in a simulation analysis to determine reservoir capacity needed to supply water needs of a rural community. The simulation revealed that price can significantly affect required reservoir storage.     

State ownership and the price sensitivity of supply: The case of the copper mining industry

The paper attempts to verify the claim that output in state owned copper mining industries is less sensitive to price changes than in private ones. This is done by comparing the price sensitivity of copper supply in countries with state and privately owned copper industries and by testing whether nationalization leads to changes in the supply behaviour of copper mining industries. It is found that low supply elasticities and nationalizations are both the result of a country's high dependence on copper and are not themselves causally related.     

INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND WITH WATER REUSE1

ABSTRACT: This work establishes an industrial water demand (IWD) model for a short term estimate, which considers water reuse technologies and discharge regulations, for the integrated circuit (IC) industry in northern Taiwan. Based on the optimization of an industrial water cost system, a computerized system dynamics model (SD model) is developed to generate individual firm IWD using data from year 2000. A market IWD is further constructed for 25 1C firms in the study area and is approximated by an inverse logistic curve. Analytical results demonstrate that price elasticity varies with water price in cases involving water reuse.     

The economics of uranium demand

The major characteristics of the demand for uranium are identified, and a number of factors which determine the actual level of uranium requirements of the nuclear power industry are discussed. Since the role of inventories is central to the process of short-term price formation, by comparing projections of uranium production and apparent consumption, the relative level of total inventories is calculated and an assessment is made of its likely impact on the uranium market during the 1980s.     

WATER CONSERVATION IN CASABLANCA,MOROCCO1

ABSTRACT: This study examines water consumption characteristics in Casablanca and analyzes approaches for sustainable water demand management. Research procedures involve the development and estimation of water demand models for the residential/commercial, industrial, and institutional sectors; forecasts of water demand to 2010; and simulation of the effects of a complex of water conservation methods on the forecasted demands. The results indicate that residential/commercial water demand is weakly responsive to price changes (elasticity =?0.448) while institutional water demand is slightly more responsive (elasticity =?0.648). The conservation approaches used in the simulations included public education, plumbing code revisions to require use of water conservation devices, leak detection and repair, pricing policy, metering, and pressure reduction. The results indicate that considerable saving in water use can be attained through a comprehensive water demand management program.     

INVESTMENT IN THE COPPER INDUSTRY: NEEDS AND POLICIES

Investment required in the copper industries of the market economies over the period 1977-90 is estimated. The estimation methodology involves projection of copper consumption in the developed market economies, developing economies, and centrally planned economies. For the market group as a whole, consumption projections lead to required incremental capacity estimates and finally to required investment figures. (Pollution abatement costs and exploration requirements are also included). The sensitivity of investment requirements to major determining factors is investigated. Finally, the broader question of appropriate intergovernmental policies to influence the geographic allocation of minerals investment - including copper investment - is considered.     

The IBA and cartel problems : Prices, policy objectives and elasticities

The bauxite-aluminium industry structure is reviewed to illustrate the character of the threat posed by the formation of the International Bauxite Association (IBA). Bauxite price is a transfer price internal to vertically integrated firms, but Caribbean governments' fiscal revenue needs provoked a consistent tendency towards price increases. Australia is not interested in this or in a bauxite cartel, but rather in developing smelting capacity, exploiting its energy resources, and the elimination of barriers to Australian aluminium imports. Some elasticity estimates previously presented for demand and supply, together with their estimation method and policy implications, are strongly criticized.     

Financial and economic factors affecting the lignite prices in Turkey: An analysis of Soma and Can lignites

Using a simultaneous equation econometric model based on yearly data between 1997 and 2006 for the Aegean Lignite Enterprise this study examines factors that affect the lignite price in Turkey. The Aegean Lignite Enterprise produces and sells the lignite of Soma and Can and their data reflect the general Turkish situation. The results suggest that (1) lignite prices sold to the industry increase (decrease) depending on the decrease (increase) in the industrial production and (2) total electricity production and electricity price are the most important factors that potential investors and related persons have to take into consideration for the pricing of lignite in the thermal power plant market.     

碳市场和电力市场耦合研究

低碳化、清洁化是我国电力行业未来发展的方向。碳市场启动,电力作为试点行业,碳市场和电力市场面临着协调和融合问题。为研究碳市场和电力市场的耦合关系,本文首先分析了碳市场机制的成本节约效应以及与电力市场改革的互动效应;然后给出考虑碳排放价格的电力市场发电电能成本模型——LCOEe;最后以广东省为例,对广东碳市场碳价传导至电价设定情景并进行模拟分析。结果显示,碳市场和电力市场存在相互制约的关系,碳排放外部成本内部化影响电力市场出清电价,而电力市场能够缓解碳市场的减排压力,抑制碳市场的活跃度。两市场的耦合研究对于优化电源结构、促进新能源市场的发展,以及启发政策制定者重视两大市场的协同发展具有非常重要的现实意义。     

The USSR, China, India and the world metals industry to 2010

Remarkable changes are occurring within the economies of the USSR, China and India that are influencing mineral industry activities. These three countries account for a major share of world minerals production and consumption. Their domestic reforms may ultimately have a serious impact on the global mining industry. This paper examines the present status of the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries, and forecasts conditions to 2010. Long-term characteristics analysed include industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy. Six metals are highlighted in the study – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, steel and zinc.     

Copper: after the boom

Copper demand is expected to turn down in the latter part of 1989 and then dip further in 1990. The slump in demand is expected to be modest, however, much less severe than the post oil shock recessions of the mid-1970s and early 1980s. By 1991 a healthy growth is expected to resume. However, major expansions to production capacity are in track and excessive production is expected to keep the copper market in surplus for the next five years. Thus, prices are expected to decline sharply and remain at quite low levels through the mid-1990s.     

Non-renewable mineral resources

The natural resources of the earth's crust upon which industry depends for metals, non-metallics and most of its energy, come from deposits in the crust carrying six to over 1000 times the normal content of the required elements. Such deposits have formed over such long periods of geological time that they must be regarded as non-renewable within the span of existence of the human species. These facts are briefly illustrated by reference to the cases of iron, copper, aluminium, titanium, magnesium, lead, zinc, flourine and the fossil fuels. The possibilities of exploiting much lower concentrations when considered in relation to the exponential rise in demand, lead to the conclusion that the scope is limited unless very cheap energy becomes available.     

Asbestos fibre supply and the regulation of asbestos exposure

The USA and Canada are each considering measures to reduce general exposure to asbestos. Product bans and workplace exposure rules may each reduce general exposure by reducing domestic asbestos demand. The effectiveness of demand-reducing measures will depend upon the elasticity of asbestos supply to the domestic market. This paper provides calculations of this elasticity for three fibre grade groupings, using a framework that recognizes international trade in asbestos and the joint product nature of most asbestos fibre production. The results suggest that reductions in North American demand result in relatively substantial changes in asbestos use but very small changes in price.     

Soviet non-fuel mineral resources : Surplus or scarcity?

The USSR has long been regarded as a resource-rich country with no need for external sources of non-fuel mineral resources. Increasingly, however, it is beginning to appear that such an assessment of the Soviet non-fuel mineral resource picture is overly optimistic. The Soviet mineral industry is beset by a variety of problems which complicate the extraction and utilization of needed minerals. The USSR remains a resource-rich country, but the difficulties it encounters exploiting its resources are multiplying. This article examines the Soviet aluminium, chromium, cobalt, copper, gold, iron, lead, manganese, platinum, titanium and zinc industries, and offers views of the Soviet resource future in each area.     

World copper market, 1973–1982, and international stabilization policies

This article critically examines international price stabilization policy in relation to the main features of the world copper market and the structural changes that have affected the industry in the decade up to 1982. The first section summarizes the main features of the world copper market, briefly discussing the principal structural changes; the second part examines the recent pattern of investment in copper and changes in ownership of some copper producing companies resulting from the need for improved cash flows due to the adverse effects of the recession; and the third part analyses the practical and theoretical issues relating to the question of price instability. A number of formidable problems are likely to arise from such price stabilization policies and it is concluded that it is because of these difficulties that the policies have not been implemented. Consequently, international commodity agreements designed to minimize or avoid price instability have proved difficult to conclude. New questions on which consensus is likely should be examined to promote intergovernmental co-operation, and hence market stability. With that end in view, this article lists some new questions that could form the basis of an agenda for exploratory intergovernmental discussions on copper.