洪水灾害下化工装置的脆弱性评估

针对洪水灾害下化工装置的脆弱性评估,提出了综合考虑洪水类型、装置结构特征和危险物质泄漏模式的脆弱性定量评估方法。该方法在厘定化工装置结构破坏模式、破坏等级和物质泄漏风险等级的前提下,构建洪水作用下装置的结构极限状态方程,获得结构极限状态曲线和结构失效控制参数阈值,进而得到结构破坏概率和危险物质泄漏频率,并将这两个参数作为洪水灾害脆弱性快速评估指标。以常压立式储罐为分析对象,对上述方法进行详细阐述,并结合实例验证了方法的适用性。结果表明,结构极限状态曲线可以用于快速区分结构安全状态和失效状态,临界装量系数是决定储罐洪水脆弱性的关键工艺参数,随罐壁高度和储液密度增加,洪水灾害脆弱性逐渐降低。     

化工工艺设施安全联锁有效性评价

在化工生产系统中,工艺设施安全联锁主要在DCS控制下得以实现,对化工工程安全联锁装置进行安全验收评价主要是对DCS有效性进行评价,是系统工程中技术含量较高的部分.化工工艺设施安全联锁装置具有隐蔽性、程序复杂、动作迅速、灵敏度高、电子元件和软件较多的特点,是计算机软件与设施设备硬件的合理匹配,辅之于人工操作和安全管理,从而提高本质化安全程度.在对化工工艺设施安全联锁装置进行安全评价的工作中,如何对工艺设施安全联锁的有效性进行评价,是化工工程安全验收评价需要研究的重要课题.     

专业的事应由专业的部门来做

<正>机械、设备的完好性是化工过程安全的要素之一。化工安全事故最基本的表现形式是"泄漏",防止工艺、物料和能量的意外"泄漏"是预防安全事故的重要保证条件。设备设施存在隐患往往直接导致事故发生,设备设施管理存在的问题主要有三方面原因。一是企业管理层没有意识到设备管理的专业性和基础性地位,把设备管     

化工工艺设施安全联锁有效性评价

在化工牛产系统巾，工艺设施安全联锁主要在DCS控制下得以实现，对化工工程安全联锁装置进行安全验收评价主要是对DCS有效性进行评价，是系统工程中技术含量较高的部分。化工工艺设施安全联锁装置具有隐蔽性、程序复杂、动作迅速、灵敏度高、电子元件和软件较多的特点，是计算机软件与设施设备硬件的合理匹配，辅之于人工操作和安全管理，从而提高本质化安全程度。在对化工工艺设施安全联锁装置进行安全评价的工作中，如何对工艺设施安全联锁的有效性进行评价，是化工工程安全验收评价需要研究的重要课题。     

烷基苯联合装置风险及控制研究

烷基苯联合装置含有国家安全监管总局首批重点监管的15种危险化工工艺中的加氢工艺、烷基化工艺两种,装置工艺介质为易燃、易爆、有毒及强腐蚀性物质,生产中潜在危险性较大;开展工艺风险研究,落实控制措施,对于提高装置本质安全性具有极为重要意义.首先探讨了工艺危险和要害部位,确认装置主要风险为火灾、爆炸和毒性危害;然后应用HAZOP方法,以加氢反应进料加热炉、烷基化反应器为分析对象,研究了工艺状态参数温度、压力、物料流量等方面出现偏差的原因、后果及安全措施;还对氢气泄漏发生火灾、爆炸和苯泄漏发生火灾、爆炸、人员中毒进行了事故后果定量分析,提出了相应的安全措施,以消除或降低工艺危险,保障装置安全.     

定量风险评价中泄漏概率的确定方法探讨

本文根据国外的泄漏概率数据,归纳整理出一套工艺过程装置的泄漏概率的估算方法,用于石油化工设备、设施的定量风险评价.工艺过程装置可能泄漏的部件主要包括容器、管道、泵体、压缩机和阀门,不同部件的基础泄漏概率也不尽相同,相同部件的不同泄漏孔径下的泄漏概率也不同.本文系统分析了COVO、Crossthwaite和挪威船级社(DNV)公布的统计数据,归纳给出了这些部件的基础泄漏概率,并提供了泄漏概率的确定程序和基于基础泄漏概率求出任意泄漏孔径的泄漏概率的算法.     

石化行业VOCS泄漏检测与修复体系的建立

Leak Detection and Repair(LDAR)技术是对工业生产活动中工艺装置泄漏现象进行发现和维修的一种技术。以国内某PTA装置设备组件泄漏的挥发性有机化合物(VOCs)为例,应用LDAR技术开展PTA装置泄漏检测并统计数据,计算VOCs泄漏损失量,建立泄漏检测与修复体系,具有一定的实践意义。     

运用“五个环节”检验“三个能力”——南京市重大化工生产安全事故应急演练掠影

2011年11月18日上午10时至11时,南京市重大化工生产安全事故应急演练活动在南京化学工业园区南京蓝星新材料化工有限公司(以下简称"蓝星化工")生产厂区举行.南京是一个重化工城市,南京化工工业园区是国家级石油化工基地,危险化学品生产、经营、使用、储存、运输等生产经营活动点多面广、体量大.此次演练模拟蓝星化工新建四氢呋喃装置试生产过程中,氢气泄漏发生爆炸,当场造成有毒有害物料泄漏,大量人员伤亡.     

定量风险评价中泄漏概率的确定方法探讨

本文根据国外的泄漏概率数据，归纳整理出一套工艺过程装置的泄漏概率的估算方法，用于石油化工设备、设施的定量风险评价。工艺过程装置可能泄漏的部件主要包括：容器、管道、泵体、压缩机和阀门，不同部件的基础泄漏概率也不尽相同，相同部件的不同泄漏孔径下的泄漏概率也不同。本文系统分析了COVO、Crossthwaite和挪威船级社（DNV）公布的统计数据，归纳给出了这些部件的基础泄漏概率，并提供了泄漏概率的确定程序和基于基础泄漏概率求出任意泄漏孔径的泄漏概率的算法。     

化工装置毒物泄漏后果评价体系的探讨

毒物泄漏的直接后果是造成人员中毒死亡,而对于未死亡的人员,毒物泄漏则间接作用于人的生理、心理等因素导致人员操作失误,进而使装置失效泄漏,产生二次事故即间接事故连锁效应。基于泄漏源模型、气云扩散模型、人员死亡概率模型及人因失误理论提出化工装置毒物泄漏后果评价体系,获得了间接事故连锁效应概率的求解方法,最后通过实例演示了该评价体系。     

Quantitative risk assessment model of hazardous chemicals leakage and application

The hazardous chemical accidents remain a matter of major concern. However, there is a dearth of practical measures about the emergency management of hazardous chemicals leakage. Therefore, in order to provide more accurate management plan, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue in chemical industry. The main aim of this study is to quantify the risk of hazardous chemicals leakage, and take precautions against the accidents. In this study, a Fire-Explosion-Poisoning Quantitative Probability Model (FEPQPM) has been established. The paper introduced the probability analysis methods to analyze derivative accidents caused by hazardous chemicals leakage, established quantitative risk assessment models, and made acceptable risk level analysis. This model has been applied to quantitatively assess an enterprise’s storage tank at Changshou Chemical Industrial Distripark (CID) in Chongqing, China. Evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the CID. It is shown that the probability of poisoning is very large, causing more economic loss than the other two types of accidents, and death toll of leakage accident increases over time, resulting in greater economic losses. The risk level of leakage accident involving poisoning is unacceptable.     

Quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech scenarios in complex industrial areas

Since the late 80s the application of quantitative risk assessment to the issue of land-use planning with respect to major accident hazards emerged as a topic to be addressed within the safety assessment of chemical and process plants. However, in the case of industrial clusters or complex industrial areas specific methodologies are needed to deal with high-impact low-probability (HILP) events. In the present study, innovative methodologies developed for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino and NaTech scenarios are presented. In recent years a set of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability were developed. A specific effort was dedicated to the improvement of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability in these accident scenarios. In the present study, the application of these models to case-studies was analyzed. The results of the improved models obtained for NaTech quantitative assessment were compared to previous results in the literature. A specific innovative approach was developed to multi-level quantitative assessment of domino scenarios, and its potential was analyzed. The results were examined also evidencing the role and the progress with respect to the pioneering work started on these topics by Franco Foraboschi.     

环己烷泄漏事故模拟与风险控制措施研究

环己烷具有闪点低、爆炸极限宽等特点,一旦发生泄漏,着火爆炸的危险性随时存在。利用计算流体动力学模拟的方法对工程项目中环己烷的泄漏事故进行模拟及风险分析,建立环己酮生产装置的全尺寸三维模型并进行仿真计算,模拟了不同泄漏场景所形成的环己烷可燃气体云团瞬态发展过程及影响范围,并对建构筑物的布局对可燃气体云团的扩散行为的影响进行研究。研究结果表明,通过优化建构筑物布局,可有效降低该装置环己烷的燃爆风险,为企业相关装置的总图布置及环己烷泄漏的安全监控和应急响应提供有价值的参考数据。     

LPG罐区事故后果模拟与风险控制研究

LPG在储存过程中,可能由于泄漏或灾难性破裂等原因引发火灾、爆炸、中毒等重大事故。首先根据两类危险源理论,辨识与分析了LPG罐区的危险源及其危险性。然后,利用事件树方法,建立了瞬时泄漏和连续泄漏后果模型。通过研究典型的事故后果计算与模拟分析方法、风险确定与表示方法,借助PHAST和LEAK系统模拟分析与计算了某LPG罐区发生泄漏后的事故后果及其影响,并绘制了个人风险等值线和社会风险F-N曲线。最后,根据分析结果提出了多项针对性的风险控制措施。     

铁路沿线可燃重气储罐最小隔离区域划分探讨*

为保护铁路线,以某化工厂距离高铁路线最近的丙烯球罐为例,提出丙烯球罐泄漏最小隔离区域划分方法以及2种保护高铁线路方案,利用重气扩散模型和定量风险评价（QRA）软件分别进行丙烯扩散模拟、爆炸模拟,并进行危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）和保护层分析（LOPA）。结果表明:球罐发生泄漏及火灾爆炸等事故,会给附近铁路线带来严重破坏;丙烯泄漏或球罐因周围其他设备设施或可燃物质着火而温度升高时,保护措施不足;隧道的安全可靠性要高于仅设1道防爆墙,隧道长度需覆盖最小隔离区域的可及范围,在扩散区域内也需设立普通挡墙,在极度危险情况下,需要实施高铁停开等保护措施。     

Quantitative assessment of domino scenarios by a GIS-based software tool

A software procedure was developed for the quantitative assessment of domino effect. The procedure was based on a systematic methodology for the identification of domino scenarios and for the assessment of consequences and expected frequencies of the escalation events. A geographical information system (GIS) platform was interfaced to the domino assessment software. The implementation of plant lay-out data to the GIS allowed the automatic identification of the possible targets of escalation effects by the software procedure, and a straightforward calculation of the contribution to individual and societal risk indexes caused by the possible domino scenarios. The procedure was applied to the analysis of several case-studies based on actual plant lay-outs. The results evidenced that the approach allows the quantitative assessment of risk caused by escalation events with a limited additional effort with respect to that required by a conventional QRA. The use of a GIS-based software was a key element in the limitation of the effort required for the quantitative assessment of domino scenarios. Moreover, the results of the case-studies pointed out that the estimation of risk increase due to domino events is an important tool for an effective assessment and control of industrial risk in chemical and process plants.     

基于RBI的碳五石油树脂装置风险评估分析

从技术特点、实施效用等方面,对QRA与RBI两类风险评估技术进行比较,选择使用RBI技术方法对碳五石油树脂装置内静设备及管道实施风险评估。运用挪威船级社的ORBIT Onshore软件定量计算评估范围内设备、管道风险值,评定风险等级,辨识隐患设备,然后从后果、可能性两方面分析产生风险的主要影响因素,经分析得知碳五石油树脂装置受H2S、HCl腐蚀减薄影响轻微,但NaOH导致的碱应力腐蚀对聚合反应后序工段中部分管道设备失效可能性影响较大。最后根据装置内存在的不同损伤机理提出检验优化策略,为装置定期检验工作提供科学的决策支持。     

Improvement of integrity management for pressure vessels based on risk assessment - A natural gas separator case study

The process of oil and gas processing plant is complex, the types of pressure vessels are rich, and the functions are critical. However, the working medium is mostly untreated medium, and the hazard factors are complex, which poses a threat to the safe production of oil and gas processing plant. Based on PDCA cycle, this paper establishes a six-step links of integrity management for sustainable improvement of pressure vessels. The typical failure modes of pressure vessels are determined, and the fishbone diagram of risk factors under each failure mode is compiled. Risk quantification and classification of pressure vessels based on failure modes (RBFM) is innovatively proposed. Avoiding incalculable failure frequency index, the process quantification of failure possibility is formed according to the development of hazard factors. A failure consequence calculation model based on the leakage affected area was established. Combined with the failure probability level and risk level, the hierarchical inspection strategy for pressure vessels under different failure modes is established. Finally, the method is applied to the natural gas separator of H processing plant. The research results show that RBFM proposed in this paper can meet the requirements for rapid and accurate risk assessment of pressure vessels in oil and gas processing plant. This paper establishes a safe production barrier for the pressure vessel and improves the intrinsic safety of the equipment.     

概率火灾安全分析方法研究

为分析和评估火灾对设备、建筑物等敏感目标结构安全的影响,结合化工定量风险评估方法和气体爆炸概率安全分析方法,提出概率火灾安全分析策略和实施流程。该方法包括火灾危害辨识、泄漏速率计算、火灾后果模拟、频率分析、绘制频率超越热载荷曲线、结构响应分析等关键步骤。以某柴油罐区为例,通过频率分析和火灾模拟,绘制出频率超越热载荷曲线,假定火灾风险可接受准则为10-4/a,求得对应的可信热载荷为21 kW/m2,并以此值作为结构热响应分析的输入参数。火灾概率安全分析方法侧重于描述火灾热辐射强度及其对应的发生可能性,判定敏感目标遭遇的可信火灾热载荷强度和结构热响应行为,评估消防减灾措施效果,确保结构完整性和可用性,不评价工艺系统潜在火灾风险的高低。     

A New Safety Risk Index for Use in Petrochemical Planning

Risk analysis is being used to evaluate and manage the potential of unwanted events in the chemical processing industry. The risk in this study is the risk posed by chemical plant accidents and it is presented in a simple quantitative form. A safety risk index is formulated that represents the maximum number of people that might be affected if an accident occurred that caused the release of all the plant inventory of a chemical. The index has four terms: frequency of accidents; hazardous effect of the chemical; inventory of the chemical released; size of the plant. The overall unit of the index is expressed as the number of people affected per year from the plant operation and is formed in a particularly simple manner so as to be suitable for the comparison of safety risk within a model for planning the development of the petrochemical industry.