Carrots and sticks for new technology: Abating greenhouse gas emissions in a heterogeneous and uncertain world

Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.     

Trihalomethane Formation Potential and Concentration Changes During Water Treatment at Mumbai (India)

The treated water at the outlet oftreatment plants and representative servicereservoirs of Mumbai city have been evaluatedfor trihalomethane formation potential in1995–1996. Chloroform, dichlorobromomethane,chlorodibromomethane and bromoform have beenmonitored during monsoon, winter and summer.The levels of chloroform are found above theregulated WHO guideline value of 200 g L^-1 in final water during postmonsoon atGhatkopar (226 g L^-1), Malbar (210.3 g L^-1) and Tulsi (231.26 g L^-1).     

Environmental Assessment of the Impact of Ozone to the Neuston of the Sea-Surface Microlayer of the Gulf of Mexico

Substantial amounts of NOx (146 000 t/y) and total hydrocarbons (294 000 t/y) are released to the marine atmosphere by the large number of oil and gas operations over Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Under appropriate meteorological conditions these emissions react to form ozone (0–54 g/m3 over-water) which can affect the marine environment. Using a dry deposition model, this work examines the amount of ozone derived from oil and gas offshore operations and deposited in the sea surface of the Gulf of Mexico, and assesses its impact on the neuston of the sea-surface microlayer. Surface integrated estimates of ozone deposited from oil and gas operations over the sea surface ranges from 400 kg to 1800 kg which results in sea surface concentrations of 15 g/m3. This estimate and the actual toxic ozone levels suggest no acute, toxic impacts to the neuston. However, indirect effects may occur through changes to the pelagic foodwebs and organic carbon pathways. Another potential pathway for ozone impacting the environment is through the production of bromate. Based on the concentrations and time scales (11–139 days) only sublethal effects appear to occur, but uncertainties associated with this assessment need to be further studied. From an ecological perspective, the environmental impacts and risks of NOx and VOC discharges from offshore platforms need to be assessed for neuston and other components of the marine ecosystem.     

Foraminifera as bioindicators in coral reef assessment and monitoring: the FORAM Index. Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring

Coral reef communities are threatened worldwide. Resource managers urgently need indicators of the biological condition of reef environments that can relate data acquired through remote-sensing, water-quality and benthic-community monitoring to stress responses in reef organisms. The FORAM (Foraminifera in Reef Assessment and Monitoring) Index (FI) is based on 30 years of research on reef sediments and reef-dwelling larger foraminifers. These shelled protists are ideal indicator organisms because: Foraminifers are widely used as environmental and paleoenvironmental indicators in many contexts; Reef-building, zooxanthellate corals and foraminifers with algal symbionts have similar water-quality requirements; The relatively short life spans of foraminifers as compared with long-lived colonial corals facilitate differentiation between long-term water-quality decline and episodic stress events; Foraminifers are relatively small and abundant, permitting statistically significant sample sizes to be collected quickly and relatively inexpensively, ideally as a component of comprehensive monitoring programs; and Collection of foraminifers has minimal impact on reef resources.USEPA guidelines for ecological indicators are used to evaluate the FI. Data required are foraminiferal assemblages from surface sediments of reef-associated environments. The FI provides resource managers with a simple procedure for determining the suitability of benthic environments for communities dominated by algal symbiotic organisms. The FI can be applied independently, or incorporated into existing or planned monitoring efforts. The simple calculations require limited computer capabilities and therefore can be applied readily to reef-associated environments worldwide. In addition, the foraminiferal shells collected can be subjected to morphometric and geochemical analyses in areas of suspected heavy-metal pollution, and the data sets for the index can be used with other monitoring data in detailed multidimensional assessments.     

A Regional Analysis of Lake Acidification Trends for the Northeastern U.S., 1982-1994

Acidic deposition is a regional phenomenon, but its effects have traditionally been studied using site-specific, intensive monitoring. We present trends information for 36 lakes of high-to-moderate acid sensitivity (defined as acid neutralizing capacity [ANC] < 100 eq L-1), and 15 deposition monitoring stations, in the northeastern U.S. for the period 1982-1994. Trends at each site were assessed through use of the Seasonal Kendall tau test; the resulting statistics were combined, through a technique analogous to analysis of variance, to produce quasi-regional estimates of change for key chemical variables. Rates of sulfate deposition declined significantly across all of the northeastern region during this time period, while rates of nitrate and ammonium deposition were unchanged. All lakes exhibited strong decreases in sulfate concentrations in response to declining sulfate deposition, but there was a strong contrast in the response of acid/base status between lakes in New England and lakes in the Adirondacks. As a group, the New England lakes exhibited recovery (ANC = +0.8 eq L-1yr-1, p<0.001), while the Adirondack lakes exhibited either no trend or further acidification (as a group, ANC = -0.5 eq L-1yr-1, p<0.01). This contrast can be attributed to changes in base cation concentrations: New England lakes exhibited base cations declines that were smaller in magnitude than declines in sulfate, producing the observed recovery in ANC; Adirondack lakes showed base cation declines that were very similar to those of sulfate, and no recovery was evident.     

An Analysis with the CERT Model of the FSU Market Power in the Carbon Emissions Trading Market

This paper aims to assess the consequences of the amendments made to the Kyoto Protocol during COP 7 in Marrakech. The major issue of hot air and CDM transaction costs is examined using the CERT model to show that primary supply regions, typically those with hot air availability, might control the emissions reduction permit supply market and maximise net export revenues of permit supply by withholding 40 to 60% of available hot air credits. The assumption that primary permit suppliers control permit price via a restriction of hot air supply to the market will inadvertently leave a portion of the market share open to non-Annex B CDM supply, despite potentially extreme variance in CDM transaction costs. A summary table of policy implications on the emissions reduction permit market is also included.     

Mercury, Methylmercury, and Selenium Concentrations in Eggs of Common Loons (Gavia immer) from Canada

Concentrations of Hg and Se were determined for a total of 125Common Loon (Gavia immer) eggs collected from lakes in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick and NovaScotia, Canada between 1972 and 1997. Resulting data were compared to Hg and/or Se concentrations known or suspected tocause reproductive impairment in birds. Organic (methyl) Hg analyses were also performed on a subset of 24 loon eggs. Thirty-nine of 125 eggs had total Hg levels exceeding those (0.6 g g^-1 ww, or 2.5 g g^-1 dw)previously reported to be associated with reproductive impairment in common loons (Barr, 1986), and 9 of 125 eggshad Hg concentrations higher than the level associated withreproductive impairment in birds generally 1 g g^-1 ww; (Thompson, 1996). Selenium concentrations in loon egg samples were less than levels known to cause reproductiveimpairment in birds. A weak but significant positive correlation was observed between egg-Hg and -Se concentrations(r = 0.511, p < 0.05). On average, methylmercury accounted for about 87% of total Hg in 24 eggs analysed for both total and organic Hg. In this subset of eggs, the relationship between organic (methyl) Hg and Se was significant (r = 0.538, p = 0.007) while that found between inorganic Hg and Se in the same eggs was not significant (r = 0.353, p = 0.091). This relationship was unexpected and was contrary to relationships established for organic and inorganic Hg vs. Se in adult loon liver and kidney tissue (Scheuhammer et al., 1998b).     

Adaptation to What and Why?

Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century.Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.     

Atmospheric Dust Loads and Their Elemental Composition at a Background Site in India

Air particulate samples collected during 1995–96 ata background site situated on the east coast of Thar Desert inRajsthan State of India were analysed for atmospheric dustloads (Suspended Particulate Matter) and elemental composition.The values of SPM ranged from 9 g M^-3 to 97g M^-3 with an average of 43 g M^-3 except a fewepisodic values, which were 3 to 5 times higher than the averageduring summer months. The results for elemental composition ofthe particulate samples showed that the concentrations ofanthropogenic toxic trace elements viz. Br, Cr, Pb, Sb, Se and Znare lower by a factor of 2 to 10 as compared to urban areas. Thehigh enrichment factors for anthropogenic elements viz. Br, Pb,Sb and Zn show an input from coal/wood fuel burning andvehicular pollution at the sampling site. The depletion of Si inSPM samples shows long distance transport of dust to the samplingsite.     

Concentration and Distribution of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in Harbour Dredging Sediments: A Pilot Study Using a Statistical Approach for a More Efficient Characterisation and Management

The Italian guidelines concerning the dumping of dredgingmaterials implies chemical, physical and microbiologicalcharacterisation of dumping sediments collected through aspecific sampling strategy.POP's such as PCB's and organochlorine pesticides, areconsidered as priority pollutants in all the InternationalConventions for the protection of the marine environment, inconsequence of their persistence, toxicity and bioaccumulation capacity.In the present article the concentrations and distribution ofPCB's and organochlorine pesticides in dredging sediments ofPiombino harbour (northern Thyrrenian sea) were investigates.The results showed high POP's concentrations in all the studiedareas. The maximum values were: 3.94 mg kg^-1 dry weight for PCB's(IUPAC Nos. 28; 52; 101, 118; 137; 153; 180; 209); 2.04 mg kg^-1 d.w.for HCH's (-, -, - and -hexachlorocyclohexane isomers); 0.28 mg kg^-1 d.w. for DD's (DDT + DDE + DDD).Subsequently, the data related to each pollutant were treatedwith statistical tests, in order to verify how well the samplingstrategy is able to represent the distribution of contaminantsin the dredging area. Finally, management strategies werederived for the studied dredging sediments.     

Rural poverty driven soil degradation under climate change: the sensitivity of the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome with respect to climate

Starting from the basic assumption of the syndrome concept that essentially all of the present problematic civilization–nature interactions on the global scale can be subdivided into a limited number of typical patterns, the analysis of the response of these patterns (syndromes) to climate change can make a major contribution to climate impact research, surmounting the difficulties of more common sectoral ceteris paribus impact studies with respect to their systemic integration. In this paper we investigate in particular the influence of climate on the regional proneness or disposition towards one of the most important syndromes with respect to famines and malnutrition, the Sahel Syndrome. It describes the closely interlinked natural and socioeconomic aspects of rural poverty driven degradation of soil and vegetation on marginal sites. Two strategies of global climate impact assessment on a spatial 0.5°×0.5° grid were pursued: (a) As a measure for the climate sensitivity of the regional proneness, the absolute value of the gradient of the disposition with respect to the global field of 3} 12 monthy normals of temperature, irradiation and precipitation is calculated. (b) The disposition was evaluated for two different climate forecasts under doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For both strategies two new quantitative global models were incorporated in a fuzzy-logic-based algorithm for determining the disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome: a neural-net-based model for plant productivity and a waterbalance model which calculates surface runoff considering vertical and lateral fluxes, both driven by the set of 36 monthly climatological normals and designed to allow very fast global numerical evaluation.Calculation (b) shows that the change in disposition towards the Sahel Syndrome crucially depends on the chosen climate forecast, indicating that the disagreement of climate forecasts is propagated to the impact assessment of the investigated socio-economic pattern. On the other hand the regions with a significant increase in disposition in at least one of the climate scenario-based model runs form a subset of the regions which are indicated by the local climate sensitivity study (a) as highly sensitive – illustrating that the gradient measure applied here provides a resonable way to calculate an upper limit or worst case of negative climate impact. This method is particularly valuable in the case of uncertain climate predictions as, e.g., for the change in precipitation patterns.     

Planning Tools for Developing Comprehensive Regional Monitoring Programs

We present a planning framework that structures thelarge amount of interrelated information involved indeveloping regional monitoring programs. By regionalwe mean programs that recognize the importance ofprocesses that occur on larger geographic scales andthat cut across more than one ecosystem component. Theframework helps visualize functional relationshipsamong qualitative ingredients such as public concernsand more concrete details such as individual dataelements. It portrays the flow of information amongthe components of a regional program and ties eachaspect of the program to management decision-makingneeds. This makes it easier, during the planningprocess, to ensure that monitoring will actuallyproduce useful information. Further, the frameworksnovel, graphically oriented, and readily accessibleformat makes key information equally available to thewide range of participants (regulators, scientists,managers, public) whose input and support arenecessary for program success.     

Monitoring the Environment: Taking a Historical Perspective

This paper introduces the five papers that follow, all of which were originally presented at a workshop titled Monitoring the Environment: Scales, Methods, and Systems in Historical Perspective. The workshop, sponsored by the Society for the History of Technology and the American Society for Environmental History, examined past efforts to develop tools, methods, and systems for measuring or monitoring some aspect of the physical environment. Four of the papers included here focus on various aspects of air quality monitoring; the fifth has to do with monitoring the earth from space. Despite differences in time period and approach, each article examines how specific tools and methods – and the motivations for developing those tools and methods – evolved. Among other things, these papers make clear that systems for monitoring various aspects of the physical environment are shaped by a variety of stakeholders and suggest that efforts to construct such systems should not be viewed as a purely technical task.     

The effects of salinity,temperature and sediment on the toxicity of copper to juvenile Hediste (Nereis) diversicolor (O. F. Muller)

Without sediment, increasing salinity (7.3 to 29.2) and increasing temperature (12 to 22 °C) reduced the toxicity of copper to juvenile Hediste diversicolor. The LC₅₀ values ranged from 357 gL^-1 in 7.3 to 513 g L^-1 in 29.2 at 12°C and from 247 to 500 g L^-1 at 22°C. In deionized water all the juvenile were dead in all solutions to which copper was added (100 to 600 g L^-1). Dead worms were swollen and everted their pharynxs. In higher doses of copper (500 to 600 g L^-1) the worms were abnormal in behaviour in all salinities (0 to 29.2). The ability to swim or crawl was disturbed.With sediments increasing temperature and increasing salinity increased the toxicity of copper to the worms. The LC₅₀ values ranged from 3200 to 4100 g L^-1 at 22°C. The response of the juvenile to copper was antagonistic to increasing temperature and salinity and synergistic to increasing salinity and increasing temperature without and with the sediment respectively.     

Characterization of atmospheric dust at Gurushikar,Mt. Abu,Rajasthan

The nature of atmospheric aerosols at Gurushikar, Mt. Abu, Rajasthan where a gamma ray telescope is to be installed, was investigated. Air particulate samples collected on filters were used to estimate the total suspended particulate matter (TSPM) and its elemental composition. The TSPM varied from 31 to 103 g/m³ during January to March 1994. The heighest loads were observed during the months of May and June (80–100 g/m³) and lowest during October (20–60 g/m³). The dust was also examined for size, shape and nature of the mineral matter. The particle sizes varied from 100 m to 5 m. The course particles (>50 m) are irregular shaped quartz grains. Some of the medium size (=50 m) particles were spherical and were highly conducting. These particles were rich in iron content. Correlation coefficients among various elements in the dust showed that it is made up of mainly two components-wind blown ground dust and particulate arising out of wood and coal burning.     

Methane in ocean waters: Concentration and carbon isotope variability at East Pacific Rise and in the Arabian Sea

Methane concentrations and stable carbon isotope ratios of water samples from the East Pacific Rise (EPR) at 21°S and the Arabian Sea (24°N, 65°E) have been determined. EPR surface water is in equilibrium (ca. 50 nl/L and –50<¹³CH₄<–46) with atmospheric methane. Deep background water has the signature of the remaining fraction of atmospheric methane partially oxidized in the water column by bacteria. Bottom near, hydrothermally influenced vent methane (>100nl/L and –30<¹³CH₄<–22) is detectable only close to the seep site. There is no input of hydrothermal methane into the atmosphere. EPR water is considered to be rather a sink than a source of atmospheric methane. Surface waters of the Arabian Sea are enriched in methane relative to the atmosphere (source for atmospheric methane). Carbon isotope ratios point to a bacterial origin of methane (¹³CH₄<–55) that is generated in the surface waters. Concentration changes and variations of carbon isotope ratios also suggest that methane seeping from the sea floor sediments of the Arabian Sea is oxidized by bacterial activity and does not reach the atmosphere.     

Insecticide Contamination of Jamaican Environment. V. Island-Wide Rapid Survey of Residues in Surface and Ground Water

Residues of organochlorines and organophosphates were determined by gas chromatography in water and sediment from 26 locations in 17 major rivers, 7 natural springs and 13 wells across Jamaica. Samples were collected on only one occasion between May and July, 1994. Residues of endosulfan were detected in all but three rivers; -endosulfan in 15 samples of sediment (0.9–108.1, mean = 28.93, S.E. = 7.198 g kg-1) and 13 of water (0.01–0.35, mean = 0.11, S.E. = 0.035 g L-1), -endosulfan in 5 sediment (15.29–49.35, mean = 30.56, S.E. = 7.132 g kg-1) and 12 water (0.05–0.31, mean = 0.14, S.E. = 0.031 g L-1) samples, and endosulfan sulphate in waters of three rivers (0.003–0.244 g L-1). Chlorpyrifos was present in 9 sediment (0.423-135.2, mean = 18.38, S.E. = 10.699 g kg-1) and two water (0.001–0.022 g L-1) samples, diazinon and ethoprophos in the sediment of one river each. Mean levels (g L-1) of and isomers and sulphate of endosulfan were 0.16 (S.E. = 0.057), 0.12 (S.E. = 0.036) and 0.15 (S.E. = 0.089), respectively, in four of the seven springs and 0.23 (S.E. = 0.052), 0.11 (S.E. = 0.029) and 0.26 (S.E. = 0.088), respectively, in seven of the thirteen wells monitored.     

Safety margins for lead in the general population

The results of monitoring blood lead concentrations, the accepted biological indicator for lead in man, are examined against the three trigger values put forward in the UK, first as justifying environmental investigation (25 g 100 ml^-1), second as justifying health checks (35 g 100 ml^-1) and third as likely to give rise to obvious symptoms in a few individuals (50 g 100 ml^-1). Arguments for using the proportion or the number of individuals above a trigger value rather than the ratio of the mean blood lead concentration to the trigger value, the conventional safety margin, are presented. The numbers of individuals or proportions in the total population who are likely to be above the trigger values have been estimated and shown to be relatively small for all three. Factors likely to affect blood lead concentrations are examined against the possible effects of the changes, current and proposed, in the controls imposed on lead usage and on pathways. The qualitative changes expected are considered by groups-eg. smokers and drinkers, by regions, eg., those with lead-free drinking water as against those still with lead in their supplies, and for the general population eg. from the elimination of the soldered can for food and the reduction, and eventual elimination, of lead in petrol.Because the relationship between intake and blood concentration is non-linear in the UK, those with the highest existing blood lead concentrations in the general population must be expected to show the smallest relative reductions in blood lead for any small reduction in exposure. The analysis also concludes that those at highest risk will have to depend on their being identified individually and action taken on them and their immediate specific environment.     

On the Performance and Applicability of Nonlinear Two-Equation Turbulence Models for Urban Air Quality Modelling

It is well known that the commonly used k- turbulence models yield inaccurate predictions for complex flow fields. One reason for this inaccuracy is the misrepresentation of Reynolds stress differences. Nonlinear turbulence models are capable to overcome this weakness while being not considerably more complex. However no comprehensive studies are known which analyze the performance of nonlinear turbulence models for three-dimensional flows around building-shaped structures. In the present study the predictions of the flow around a surface-mounted cube using three nonlinear two-equation turbulence models are discussed. The results are compared with predictions of the standard k- turbulence model and wind tunnel measurements. It is shown that the use of nonlinear turbulence models can be beneficial in predicting wind flows around buildings.     

The monitoring of cadmium,zinc and copper in the kidneys and liver of humans deceased in the region of Cracow (Poland)

Cadmium, zinc and copper levels were determined in the renal cortex and liver of 60 inhabitants of Cracow, Poland. Cadmium levels in the renal cortex were contained in broad limits of 5–176 g/g, mean 50.6 g/g (wet weight). Maximum levels were found in the age group of about 50–60 years. The levels were slightly higher in men (53 g/g) than in women (45 g/g), with no effect of location within the region. The levels in smokers (62 g/g) were much higher than in non-smokers (32 g/g). The above relations were less pronounced for cadmium levels in the liver. Whole body retention of cadmium followed the pattern of cadmium in renal cortex. The level of zinc in renal cortex reflected those of cadmium. A significant proportion of the population (54% in smokers, 9% in non-smokers) showed cadmium levels in renal cortex exceeding the reference level of 50 g/g recently accepted for general population. In the view of the authors the exposure to cadmium of the population of Cracow is excessive and calls for attention.The study was performed under a KBN grant No 40106 91 01.