“中国发展”影响力的一种解读

通过对中国经济发展、资源环境利用以及软实力的分析,对“中国发展”产生的影响作出了基本判断:“中国发展”在国际社会中的整体影响力被误认,我们看到的依然是“中国因素”在不同领域发挥的作用.在经济全球化过程中,资本主义市场经济体系看到的是“中国低廉的劳动力”、“中国宽松的经济制度环境”、“早期没有限制的资源环境滥用”以及“中国广阔的消费市场与人口红利”;在全球或亚洲金融危机中,其他国家看重的是中国多年积累的“外汇”;在全球治理或危机处理中,国际社会期望的是没有话语权的“中国义务和责任”,等等.这些都是“单一因素”在特定领域中产生的“被”作用.中国对国际社会发挥积极和主动性影响作用还需要时间,需要几代人的继续努力.中国曾经是世界上极有影响的大国,中国的崛起是事物发展的正常过程,过多地谈论其影响反映的也许是其影响力的缺乏.     

Discussion on the Regional Division of the Development Stage of China's Wind Power

This paper constructs the index system of the regional division of the development stage of China's wind power resourc-es, including the index of energy, the index of wind energy endow-ments and other indices. Based on principal component analysis and layered clustering analysis of these indices, and combined with the conceptual function of the development and utilization stage of the wind power, this paper divides the development and utilization stage of the wind power into four stages taking province as the basic yardstick: optimization growth stage, the rapid growth stage,the slow growth stage and the initial growth stage. In addition, this paper briefly discusses the basic strategy that should be adopted in each development stage of wind power resources.     

Evaluation of Material-based Development of China Using GIS Methods

Abstract

Regional development is a course of accumulation based on many factors, which is directly related to resources utilization and conversion. And material wealth production and accumulation embody the outcome of regional development. Thus, focusing on material wealth, regional development can be evaluated from resources and perspective of resources conversion. Taking the infrastructural level, transportation accessibility and economic development level into full account, the concept of “material-based development” was presented and the material-based development index (MDI) model was established. By using the MDI model, geographic information system technology and mathematic methods, this article then calculated MDI of each county and province of China in 2005 and systematically evaluated the material-based development of China at county and provincial scales, so as to bring some scientific references and policy-making supports to the population development function oriented zoning and population spatial distribution planning of China. The result showed that: (1) At county scale, the material-based development of counties within China in 2005 was significantly different, in which there were 1876 counties belonging to the mid-level material-based development and accounted for 78.10% of the total. The numbers of high-level and low-level counties were 144 and 382 and accounted for 6.00% and 15.90% respectively, demonstrating a spindle shape in general. The spatial distribution of material-based development was unbalanced, and it was much better in southeastern part of the line of “Daxinganling–Yinshan–Liupanshan–southeast edge of Qinghai– Tibet Plateau” than that of northwestern. Furthermore, there were also differences of the sub-index between different material-based development levels. Therefore, for different regions, key issues and measures adaptable to local condition should be prioritized and taken in order to realize regional balance development. (2) At provincial scale, there was also significant difference between each province and the spatial distribution of it was “high in the east, low in the west” in general. It meant that the capacity of natural resources attraction and conversion of east China was better than that of west China. The infrastructure level was the main factor accounting for the differences of material-based development levels among provinces. As a result, our government should make great efforts to improve infrastructure condition, especially the western part of China, so as to narrow the gap between the western part and the eastern part to realize the coordinated development within different regions and rapidly socio-economic development of China.     

真实储蓄:中国可持续发展的测量与检验

用真实储蓄进行可持续发展的跨国比较已广为采用,关于真实储蓄指标的有效性检验的研究正在开展.本文汇集两类较具代表性的检验方法,测算世界银行提供的1960至2006年中国真实储蓄率的有效性.研究发现基于相同理论的不同检验方法,得出的结论互相抵触.本文从数据构造与经济计量模型两个方面分析,得出数据构造方法的不同是造成上述现象的重要原因,而中国储蓄检验结果的不理想,则源于检验模型的假设不适于我国的数据.     

Evaluation of Material-based Development of China Using GIS Methods

Regional development is a course of accumulation based on many factors, which is directly related to resources utilization and conversion. And material wealth production and accumulation embody the outcome of regional development. Thus, focusing on material wealth, regional development can be evaluated from resources and perspective of resources conversion. Taking the infrastructural level, transportation accessibility and economic development level into full account, the concept of material-based developme...     

中国西部能源及矿业开发与环境保护协调发展研究

中国西部地区自然环境脆弱且恶劣,但能源及矿产资源分布相对集中,能源及矿业开发已经成为其经济社会发展的支柱产业.本文力图从西部能源及矿业开发与环境保护协调发展、促进资源开发与生态保护的视角,综合辨析出西部地区能源及矿业开发引发的地质环境及生态环境恶化问题,主要包括土壤污染与土地破坏、水资源污染与短缺、矿区大气污染、噪声污染以及采矿诱发的各类地质灾害和生态环境破坏等.文章认为:西部地区矿产资源和能源开发等人为因素引发的地质环境及生态环境恶化问题日益突出,增强西部地区可持续发展能力,确保资源开发与环境保护的协调发展是西部地区提高能源资源保障能力的现实选择,也是转变发展方式、建设“两型”社会的必然要求.为此,本文对西部地区能矿资源开发与环境保护的协调发展提出了相关建议,主要包括:大力推行绿色发展,极开发绿色新能源;加强资源管理与污染控制,建立、健全矿产资源开发环境保护相关法律法规和体系,健全生态补偿机制;通过市场准入制度设立绿色门槛,继续整合小矿山;加强西部资源型城市与沿海地区的区域融合,减少资源开发的负外部性,破除“资源诅咒”;借鉴国际上“责任矿产开发倡议”,提高能源及矿产资源开发利益相关者的参与能力;统筹协调资源税费、地方发展基金,明确资源税的调节作用,健全利益分配机制,设立绿色发展基金;加强能矿资源开发全过程的第三方独立监管,在能源及矿产资源开发过程中实行有效透明的监管等.     

我国31个省(市、自治区)的综合实力评价

选取具有代表性的9类共30个具体评价指标作为我国31个省（市、自治区）的综合实力评价的原始指标，运用因子多变量统计分析法对30个指标数据进行因子分析处理，采取主成分分析法提取公因子，并采取promox斜交旋转，得出6个公因子作为评价我国31个省（市、区）的综合实力的综合变量。计算得出我国各省（市、区）的综合得分。将计算的各省区市的综合得分从大到小排列，确定等级及分值区间。根据分类结果划分为6类地区，得出第Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类地区全部为东部地区，其综合实力得分位居全国前6位，它们依次是广东、江苏、上海、浙江、山东和北京；而第Ⅵ类地区中除海南属于东部地区之外，其余省市区都属于西部地区，其综合实力得分位居全国后7位且均为负值。它们依次是青海、宁夏．贵州、西藏、海南、甘肃和重庆。可见东西部地区社会经济发展的极度不平衡。     

中国的生态足迹与绿色发展

从2008年开始,世界自然基金会(WWF)与中国环境与发展国际合作委员会(国合会)联合,通过与国内外智库的合作引入"生态足迹"理念,从自然资源消耗与"生物承载力"之间关系的角度来研究中国经济发展所面临的资源环境问题。研究表明,2007年人类在消耗着1.5个地球。过去半个世纪以来,中国的生态足迹总量2007年已经是1961年的4倍,尽管中国的人均生态足迹水平仍然低于世界平均水平,但是已经突破了1个地球的均衡水平。与全球平均类似,中国生态足迹中最主要的组成部分是碳足迹,占54%。解决中国的生态足迹超支问题,关键是降低碳足迹。目前,中国的能源供给仍然高度依赖于化石能源,超过一半的能源供给来自于煤炭,中国和世界其它国家一样将面临化石能源枯竭问题。中国作为一个处于经济快速发展过程中的能耗大国,应及时调整产业结构和基础设施供给模式,在积极应对气候变化的同时提前应对自身可能面临的能源问题。中国所面临的现实决定了中国不能重复发达国家的高增长高资源消耗的老路,需要转变经济发展方式,发展绿色经济,为全球走向可持续发展道路提供探索的机会。     

中国西部绿色发展概念框架

综合绿色发展的国际经验,以自然资本、经济资本、社会资本与人力资本四大资本为核心,提出了中国西部地区绿色发展概念框架.中国西部地区绿色发展概念框架是以“发展中促转变,转变中谋发展”的良性循环发展原则为指导原则,分析西部地区社会经济发展及生态环境和自然资源保护两个方面在发展过程中相互促进和制约的关系,并根据西部地区当前经济资本、环境资本、社会资本以及人力资本数量,通过政府适当干预,如区域规划、区内调整,最终实现社会经济与生态环境和自然资源相协调的绿色发展.该框架综合考虑了中国西部在绿色发展道路上特有挑战与机遇,阐明了社会经济发展与资源环境承载力之间的相互作用机制,明确了中国西部地区“生态友好、社会包容和内生增长”的绿色发展目标.最后,本文针对该绿色发展框架提出了中国西部地区绿色发展的政策建议:提出“西部地区绿色发展战略”是当前西部地区绿色发展进程中最为迫切的需求,中央政府应当尽快制定和实施“西部地区绿色发展战略”,同时西部地区政府在省级和地方层面将保护中国西部生态环境与区域扶贫开发相结合,加大对以提升西部地区人力资本为目的的各类工程的投入,强化区域绿色基础建设和生态服务供给,缓解西部地区贫困,提升区域绿色发展进程的速度和质量;开展财政体制机制改革,以提高各级财政资金的使用效率;结合各省发展需求与条件实施以生态城市为发展目标的可持续城镇化发展模式,制定差异化的城镇化发展战略;在西部地区重点和限制开发区尤其是贫困集中和区域发展潜力较大地区,鼓励具有区域特色的新型绿色产业的发展.在发展过程中不断加强制度创新以引导长期绿色发展.     

中国农村发展的可持续走向

从三种生产的视角看，农村发展的可持续方向是指农村发展趋向于三种生产的和谐运行与环境社会系统的稳定演进。获得“经济-社会-环境”整体高效益。资源环境问题是与一定的发展模式相伴而生的，针对中国农村地区的资源环境问题，通过深入剖析城乡整体、城乡之间以及农村内部三种生产的状况，提出改善中国农村发展状况的对策。     

Comprehensive Appraisal of Provincial Low Carbon Development： A Case Study of China

In this research,the Factor Analysis model of measuring provincial low carbon development in China has been constructed.Based on data from 30 provinces,an empirical study was developed to measure comprehensive low carbon development using the Factor Analysis model(Principal Components method and Normalized Varimax Rotation).The results reveal that the provincial marks of low carbon development are generally low and only nine provinces have high marks(more than 0.80).The results also show significant regional disparity.The provincial marks of the eastern region are higher than both the middle and western provinces of mainland China.All of the provinces with high marks(more than 0.90) are located in the eastern region,and those with the lowest marks(0.60) are located in the middle region.Furthermore,regional disparity in low carbon development follows the same pattern as economic development in China.Finally,some suggestions for decision-makers are presented.     

地方政府与中国乡村的可持续发展——以浙江省横店镇可持续发展实验区为个案

在可持续发展过程中。政府、民间组织、企业和个人都有其能够发挥作用的地方．但是。地方政府可以说是实现地方可持续发展之关键。以浙江省东阳市横店镇可持续发展实验区为个案。深入探讨地方政府与地方可持续发展的关系。文章的一个基本结论是，从横店镇可持续发展实验区案例来看．我国乡村的可持续发展应该走政府主导的模式．而只有强化地方政府的能力（包括规划、资源与领导能力等）。方能培育地方良治（good governance）与支持可持续发展。     

中国农村人口问题与中国可持续发展

中国人口问题是中国可持续发展面临的首要问题。中国13亿人口中约有9亿是农村人口。因此所谓“中国人口问题”根本上是中国农村人口问题。人口为什么会成为一个“问题”则是关注的焦点。通过对人口问题本质进行剖析发现。研究人口问题必须着眼予人与自然的关系以及人与社会的关系。而解决中国的人口“问题”则必须着眼于农村人口生存方式的改变。从当前我国农村人口的生存方式和状况来看。中国的农村人口问题折射在农业、农村问题上。故统称为“三农”问题。为此，着眼于中国可持续发展提出解决中国农村人口问题的途径和建议。     

邓小平发展思想论纲

邓小平发展思想是邓小平理论的核心内容,是建设中国特色社会主义的代数学.邓小平始终立足于中国历史向世界历史转变的坐标,坚持马克思主义唯物史观不动摇,结合中国实际、中国问题,围绕脱胎于半殖民地半封建社会的中国社会主义如何从落后状态向进步状态演化,如何从不发达阶段(初级阶段)向发达阶段转变,”建设有中国特色的社会主义”和实现”中国式的现代化”问题,提出了四个相辅相成的发展战略和实施战略的一系列环环相扣的发展策略.发展战略和发展策略共同构建了一个具有内在统一的、纵横相交兼具宏观与微观的立体式发展思想体系,即邓小平发展思想,它的外延涉及到政治、经济、文化、社会、教育、科技、农林、旅游、环保等方面.以江泽民和胡锦涛为总书记的中央领导集体秉承着邓小平发展思想,并根据不断变化的世情、国情和党情与时俱进地对其进行了发展、创新与丰富,相继提出了”三个代表”重要思想与科学发展观.     

代际差异视角下农民工乡城迁移与宅基地退出影响因素分析——基于推拉理论的实证研究

在2011年天津市农民工调查数据的基础上,本文借鉴推拉理论重新梳理影响农民工城乡迁移与宅基地退出意愿的因素,建立了农民工宅基地退出影响因素的推拉分析框架,并通过实证研究析出和显化在不同代际农民工城乡迁移和宅基地退出过程中起关键作用的因素。研究发现:在推力因素方面,对第一代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要是年龄、受教育程度、宅基地在住房养老中的作用、供养系数和对农村基础设施满意程度;对新生代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要有性别、教育程度、供养系数和对农村基础设施满意程度。在拉力因素方面,对第一代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要是有无专业培训经历或证书、是否签订劳动合同、区位、单位性质和外出务工时所利用的方式;对新生代农民工宅基地退出意愿产生较大影响的因素主要是有无专业培训经历或证书、是否签订劳动合同、区位、单位性质、外出务工时所利用的方式和是否同城里的人交过朋友。在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。     

The Sustainable Development of ICTs in China： An Empirical Study of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

The wide application of new information and communication technologies （ICTs） has been argued to be critical to business success of small and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs）, especially to those in the developing countries. Drawing upon existing literature, this article will examine the determinants of ICTs application in SMEs in China based on data collected from interviews with top managers and/or owners of 70 SMEs. We identify 20 factors affecting ICTs application in SMEs in China and divide them into four broad categories, namely pressures, firm specific factors, technical factors and local milieu. We also pay special attention to the Chinese business environment affecting ICTs application. Our analysis shows that local ICT infrastructure, external pressures from competitors and ICT knowledge of employees are the determinants of Internet application by SMEs, while product characteristics and market target are important factors of e-commerce adoption.     

Soil Fertility Quality and Agricultural Sustainable Development in the Black Soil Region of Northeast China

The black soil in northeast China is considered one of the most fertile soils in China. Consequently, the black soil region has become one of the most important regions for cereal grain production in China. Agriculture has developed rapidly since the early part of the nineteenth century. To date, approximately 70 percent of total land in the area is cultivated. Even though the agricultural production in this region is increasing continuously, some soil fertility quality problems have become serious. This is hampering agricultural development and sustainability in the region. A brief history of population growth and agricultural development in the region is presented. Major soil quality problems, particularly soil degradation and soil erosion, are analyzed. Based on studies, suggestions for improving soil quality and for promoting sustainable agricultural development in the region are presented. These suggestions include improving agricultural landscape patterns, developing conservation cultivation, promoting combinations of crop production with combinations of forestry and animal husbandry, and implementing integrated management for soil and water conservation.     

我国循环经济的发展模式

循环经济发展模式主要是指循环经济的产业发展模式和区域发展模式。根据我国循环经济的内涵、国际做法和国内相关实践探索经验,我国循环经济的产业发展模式涉及生产和消费两个重点领域和四个重点产业。四个重点产业是生态工业、生态农业、绿色服务业和废弃物再利用、资源化及无害化处置产业。循环经济区域发展模式是在区域基础设施体系和生态系统支撑下的两个重点领域和四个重点产业的有机组合和共生。是区域可持续发展的核心组成部分。区域基础设施体系也是应用循环经济原理的重要领域。以资源能源离效和环境影响最小为特征。在目前的实践中。我国出现了三种将发展循环经济作为推动区域可持续发展的助推器而引发的区域社会经济发展战略转型模式：东部发达地区的自发转型模式、辽宁资源型地区的转型模式和西部地区典型的跨越发展转型模式。     

中国小城镇人居环境建设

综合国内外学者的人居环境理论，结合中国国情提出了人居环境6层塔理论模型。模型从第6层到底层分别是：人类活动，建筑环境。居住社区环境，建成环境，社会环境和自然环境。从塔的顶层到底层。空间越来越广阔，但变化速度越来越慢。人居环境科学就是研究这6个层次环境以及其涧的关系。总结认为：中国小城镇建设与发展模式有工业促进模式，农业依托模式，商贸引领模式，交通兴镇模式，旅游带动模式，城市辐射模式和专业型模式。中国小城镇人居环境发展的基本条件包括：工业发展，聚集规模，土地产权，规划整合，基础设施和集群发展。最后，提出了小城镇人居环境建设的5条原则，即资源节约和经济原则，环境友好和生态原则，地方传统和文脉原则，城乡统筹和协调原则，以及利益相关者参与原则。     

Evaluation of ecotourism development in rural regions of China

The current status of ecotourism in rural China was analyzed in this paper.Empirical surveys covering the whole country indicate that ecotourism in rural China has attracted a large number of tourists who,however,didn’t generate revenues that can match the number.Although the environmental quality of those rural ecotourism destinations is high with little negative impacts,several problems have already appeared,suggesting a need to monitor those areas.The current practice of interpretation in most rural ecotourism destinations did not provide environmental education opportunities to the tourists.And local communities need more effective ways to decide on the prospects of local ecotourism development by themselves.Finally,a few recommendations for improving the sustainability of ecotourism destinations were provided.