五大连池老黑山火山的两次喷发活动

老黑山是五大连池火山群中最年轻的火山.通过对老黑山火山锥体结构及其形态分析指出,老黑山火山并非单锥,而是由先、后不同时期形成的两个锥体叠加组成的复合锥,表明它有两次喷发活动.通过对新发掘出的史料的分析,进一步指出,老黑山火山的第一次喷发时间为1720(不是1719年)-1721年,第二次可能为1776年.两次喷发活动的确认为研究老黑山火山喷发历史、喷发过程、喷发危险性评价和灾害预测等提供了新依据.     

Volcanic disasters in Latin America and the 13th November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia

Volcanic eruptions in Latin America have claimed about 61,000 lives since 1600 A.D. and the region's volcanoes are responsible for about a quarter of the world's fatalities from this type of hazard. Nearly all loss of life from volcanism in Latin America is due to pyroclastic surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars or volcanic mudflows. Lahars generated during the 13th November, 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia claimed 25,000 lives, underscoring the great hazard from lahars, which can be generated from the fifty-six, active, ice-capped Central and South American volcanoes during even very small eruptions. The probability of specific prediction of the timing of such events is currently low, whereas the probability of a general prediction of volcanic eruption is high, giving sufficient time to install telemetered lahar alarm systems, which could largely avoid the loss of life.     

世界不同区域火山爆发与我国华南夏季旱涝的关系

本文将世界火山爆发地点分为6个区域,根据500a来火山活动和我国华南旱涝资料,研究了中国华南阜涝与不同火山区域及不同季节火山爆发的统计关系,发现了不同区域火山爆发对华南旱涝的影响不同。     

The increasing exposure of cities to the effects of volcanic eruptions: a global survey

Abstract

The most dynamic demographic process of the past 250 years has been the movement of people from rural areas to cities. For most of this period urbanisation has been concentrated in economically more developed parts of the world, but during the last 50 years the focus has shifted to economically less developed regions. Urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, has led to increasing global exposure to a variety of natural hazards, not the least of which are risks posed to large cities by volcanoes. In this paper we monitor these demographic changes and detail the various types of volcanic hazard to which cities are exposed. A major eruption affecting a city in a developing country could cause widespread loss of life and regional disruption. Effective response, however, might minimise casualties in a city within a developed nation affected by a major eruption, but the economic impact could have global consequences. We argue that global hazard exposure is often subtle and involves not only the size of a city and the types of volcanic product that may occur, but also the strategic position of the threatened city within the economy of a country and/or region and the fact that volcano-induced tsunami and other consequences of eruptions, such as climatic change, may affect cities far removed from a given eruption site. Mitigation measures informed by both specifc prediction (surveillance) and general prediction (hazard mapping) are providing the potential to reduce hazard exposure. The paper concludes with a consideration of ongoing research, in particular the emphasis currently being placed on conflating hazard analysis with studies of place, economy, society and culture.     

The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism

Abstract

This study quantifies the spatial relationship between the global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Using recently compiled databases of population and Holocene volcanoes, we estimate that almost 9% (455 × 10⁶ people) of the world's 1990 population lived within 100km of an historically active volcano and 12% within 100km of a volcano believed to have been active during the last 10,000 years. The analysis also indicates that average population density generally decreases with distance from these volcanoes (within 200 km). In tropical areas, the elevation and fertile soils associated with volcanic regions can provide incentives for agrarian populations to settle close to potentially active volcanoes. In Southeast Asia and Central America higher population densities lie in closer proximity to volcanoes than in other volcanic regions. In Japan and Chile, population density tends to increase with distance from volcanoes. The current trends of rapid urbanization and sustained population growth in tropical developing countries, combined with agricultural intensification of fertile volcanic terrains could alter the relationship between humans and volcanoes so as to increase both local and global consequences of volcanic eruptions in the future.     

The Dieng ‘hazardscape’: a political ecology of vulnerability to natural hazards in Java’s highlands

This research article describes the construction of vulnerability to natural hazards in the Dieng Plateau of Central Java, Indonesia. The Dieng Plateau is a volcanically hazardous landscape, featuring a series of craters with a history of recurrent phreatic eruptions and emission of poisonous gases. Drawing on four months of in-depth fieldwork, this article applies the ‘hazardscape’ as a conceptual lens to describe how economic necessity and political processes frame volcanic risk, and how this influences vulnerability. Vulnerability in Dieng is linked to its history of upland settlement, the unequal spatial distribution of land prices, and the impact of internal state-led territorialisation strategies. Territorialisation strategies are characterised by the spatial designation of certain areas as ‘hazardous’, a process that historically led to the relocation of upland Javanese farmers to the outer islands as part of the politically significant transmigration programme. However, these territorial zones were locally contested, leading to the reoccupation of hazardous land with mixed outcomes for conditions of vulnerability. By unpacking the political construction of risk, through the concepts of territoriality and the hazardscape, this article demonstrates how the utilisation of hazardous land can bring economic opportunity alongside disadvantage in Java’s volcanic landscapes.     

Does need matter? Needs assessments and decision‐making among major humanitarian health agencies

Disasters of physical origin, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, tidal waves, tropical storms, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, have affected millions of people globally over the past 100 years. Proportionately, there is far greater likelihood of being affected by such disasters in low‐income countries than in high‐income countries. Furthermore, low‐income countries are in need of international assistance following disasters more often than high‐income countries. The funding of international humanitarian assistance has increased from USD 12.9 billion in 2006 to an estimated USD 16.7 billion in 2010. The majority of this funding is channelled through humanitarian agencies and is supposed to be distributed based on the need of those affected, as assessed using needs assessments. Such needs assessments may be used to inform decisions internally, to influence others, to justify response decisions, and to obtain funding. Little is known about the quality of needs assessments in practical applications. Consequently, this paper reports on and analyses the views of operational decision‐makers in major health‐related humanitarian agencies on needs assessments.     

强火山爆发与我国华北地区夏季旱涝的关系

本文根据我国１４７０～１９９０年旱涝型和旱涝等级指数资料，研究了１５世纪以来世界８个区域强火山爆发与我国华北旱涝的统计关系，发现火山爆发后１～２ａ内华北地区夏季以偏旱为主。     

中国的海啸灾害

从海啸的物理和发生条件分析了中国海啸的危险性：渤海、黄海和东海发生本地海啸的可能性很小；中国东部沿海受来自太平洋方面海啸的影响也很小；对中国东南沿海有较大影响的海啸发源地主要在南方，它们是菲律宾西侧的大地震、印度尼西亚巽他海峡的火山喷发以及中国南海的大型海底滑坡。虽然中国的海岸受海啸影响的可能性不大，但对于浪高5m的2级海啸而言，受到威胁的沿海地区的GDP占全国近1／4。从成灾的角度来看，小海啸大灾难的情况是有可能的。     

Deaths in natural hazards in the solomon islands

Archival and library search techniques have been used to establish extensive databases on deaths and damage resulting from natural hazards in the Solomon Islands. Although the records of fatalities are certainly incomplete, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, landslides, tsunami and earthquakes appear to have been the most important. Only 22 per cent of the recorded deaths have resulted from meteorological hazards but a single event could change this proportion significantly. Five events in the fatality database account for 88 per cent of the recorded deaths. Future death tolls are also likely to be dominated by a small number of events. While the expected number of deaths in a given period is dependent upon the length of record considered, it is clear that a disaster which kills one hundred or more people in the Solomons can be expected more frequently than once in a hundred years.     

The portrayal of disaster in Western fine art

This paper surveys the depiction of disaster in Western art over the centuries. Emphasis is placed on the Italian tradition, as Italy is a country that has a rich experience of both artistic developments and disasters and has provided inspiration to artists from other countries. The survey begins with Classical art and continues with the Mediaeval fresco tradition. The vision of disaster was expanded when naturalism was introduced into art during the Renaissance. Whereas earthquakes had been a prime motivation for artistic representations in the Mediaeval period, during the Baroque volcanic eruptions seem to have been more popular, especially given the remarkable artistic output around Mount Vesuvius in the 18th century. Marine painters concentrated on storm and shipwreck, but often with delineations of extreme atmospheric phenomena. In the 19th century John Martin and others painted the Apocalypse. In the 20th century, Expressionism favoured lively depictions of natural hazards and so, surprisingly, did certain forms of metaphysical abstraction. Disaster has been seen in Western fine art in six ways: as spectacle, as allegory (through Classical mythology or Biblical drama), as a votive instrument of atonement, as a visual commemoration of an extreme event, and as a dramatization of a metaphysical proposition.     

Community resilience and volcano hazard: the eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the faldas in Ecuador

Official response to explosive volcano hazards usually involves evacuation of local inhabitants to safe shelters. Enforcement is often difficult and problems can be exacerbated when major eruptions do not ensue. Families are deprived of livelihoods and pressure to return to hazardous areas builds. Concomitantly, prevailing socio-economic and political conditions limit activities and can influence vulnerability. This paper addresses these issues, examining an ongoing volcano hazard (Tungurahua) in Ecuador where contextual realities significantly constrain responses. Fieldwork involved interviewing government officials, selecting focus groups and conducting surveys of evacuees in four locations: a temporary shelter, a permanent resettlement, with returnees and with a control group. Differences in perceptions of risk and health conditions, and in the potential for economic recovery were found among groups with different evacuation experiences. The long-term goal is to develop a model of community resilience in long-term stress environments.     

火山灾害及其监测预防

本文阐明火山灾害是一种重大自然灾害,给人民生命财产造成严重损失。文中指出当前火山活动进入新的活跃期,提出我国火山灾害的潜在危险。我国许多休眠火山区,正在成为新的经济开发区和旅游疗养、开发地热和建材资源的新兴城镇,人口迅速增加,经济蓬勃发展。但还没有采取有效的火山监测研究和防灾措施。作者建议,应把火山监测研究纳入政府防灾日程,制定规划,拨出专款,把防御火山灾害同国土开发,经济建设结合起来。     

五大连池火山活动区构造应力场

本文利用五大连池火山活动区地震台网观测的地震资料,研究火山区及附近地区地震活动的时空演变、震源机制特征及其与构造活动的关系。讨论了五大连池火山区构造应力环境下地震活动水平与火山活动的一些相关因素。     

全球不同区域火山爆发与中国夏季旱涝的关系

根据近500年来火山活动和中国旱涝资料,研究了中国旱涝型和各主要地区旱涝指数与不同火山区和不同季节火山爆发的统计关系,探讨了1991年江淮洪涝与该年6月火山爆发的可能联系。发现不同区域火山爆发对中国不同地区的旱涝影响不同,有的甚至截然相反。由统计检验表明,分区研究比不分区研究其信度明显提高。     

Workplace response of companies exposed to the 9/11 World Trade Center attack: a focus‐group study

The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 (9/11) left workplaces in pressing need of a mental health response capability. Unaddressed emotional sequelae may be devastating to the productivity and economic stability of a company's workforce. In the second year after the attacks, 85 employees of five highly affected agencies participated in 12 focus groups to discuss workplace mental health issues. Managers felt ill prepared to manage the magnitude and the intensity of employees' emotional responses. Rapid return to work, provision of workplace mental health services, and peer support were viewed as contributory to emotional recovery. Formal mental health services provided were perceived as insufficient. Drawing on their post‐9/11 workplace experience, members of these groups identified practical measures that they found helpful in promoting healing outside of professional mental health services. These measures, consistent with many principles of psychological first aid, may be applied by workplace leaders who are not mental health professionals.     

长白山天池火山的研究现状与展望

较详细地介绍了近年来长白山天池火山喷发历史、火山形成机制、火山系统的探测和火山灾害的研究现状，指出了当前研究中存在的一些主要问题。建议今后应加强火山活动历史研究；探测岩浆作用及其动态变化，限定火山失稳条件；研究岩浆作用和火山触发机制；开展火山作用的试验模拟和火山灾害区划的定量模拟研究；建立火山灾害预警系统，制定火山灾害应急预案，以达到减轻火山灾害的目的。     

Rainfall and flooding in the Guayas river basin and its effects on the incidence of malaria 1982–1985

Inasmuch as health is at cross purposes with illness, suffering, disability and death, it is clear that all measures that are adopted with foresight to reduce the repercussions of natural disasters have consequences for health     

腾冲火山区地震的震源参数

火山区地震与非火山区或者说一般构造区地震的震源参数有何差异?本文使用2002-06-13～09-13腾冲火山区流动数字地震观测台网记录到的火山区地震资料,用波谱分析方法测算腾冲火山区地震的震源力学参数。对其中33个地震分析得出:腾冲火山区的地震震源浅,震级偏小;地震矩M0在8.32×1010～8.96×1012N·m之间;震级与地震矩之间的关系式为logM0=0.98ML+10.48,与姚安构造区得出的结果基本一致;震源位错半径在0.124～0.418km;地震应力降在(0.005～0.277)×105Pa,仅为姚安构造区地震应力降的1/5。这些结果表明腾冲火山区存在浅的岩浆体活动,在该区无大的应力积累。