Displacements and reconstruction: the case of west beirut - Lebanon

This paper focusses on the housing conditions of the displaced people who were forced to move to West Beirut due to the conflict in Lebanon which started in 1975. With the lack of any emergency housing provision, people have adopted two ways to shelter their families; either by occupying vacant buildings or by squatting on unused land (land squatting).
The study is based on fieldwork undertaken in order to gain a deeper insight into the displaced people's housing conditions. The results of the survey analysis are believed to be common to other displaced people, as has been verified by comparison with the available information in newspaper reports, unpublished documents, and other accounts.
The paper concludes with a reconstruction strategy, composed of two policies. First, a short-term policy which deals with the urgent needs of the people in the place of refuge. Thus mitigation and risk reduction are the aims of this policy. Second, a long-term policy which concentrates on future housing reconstruction; in which economic development, social integration and cultural identity are the basic features.     

Redefining decision: implications for managing risk and uncertainty

The standard risk analysis paradigm is one of choice among alternative actions, each with a defined list of possible outcomes which can be compared on a probability-weighted cost basis. The practice of extending this model into circumstances in which the possible outcomes are ill-defined (but potentially disastrous), their relative probabilities are defined only subjectively, and the parties concerned have conflicting objectives, is dangerously flawed. An alternative paradigm is proposed which models consequential decisions as a process of building commitment to a course of action, including commitment to manage its (unknown) consequences. An important criterion here is unmanageability: the extent to which a particular course of action may rapidly generate severe, indeterminately adverse consequences, not manageable with existing resources and technology. This approach appears able to provide new and better decision tools in disaster-vulnerable areas such as response to climatic change and regulation of potentially catastrophic technology.     

Climate change and disaster management

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.     

基于遥感参数特征空间的福建省干旱监测

归一化植被指数(NDVI)和地表温度(LST)是描述地表特征的两个重要参数,通过新型的MODIS卫星数据反演得到NDVI和LST,采用基于NDVI-IST特征空间的条件植被温度指数(VTCI)模型,对2001-2002年福建省发生的严重秋冬春连续干旱灾害进行了监测验证,并利用气象观测数据对VTCI模型临测结果进行了分析.研究结果表明:VTCI模型能够真实地反映地表水分供应状况,能较好地反映区域旱情分布和旱情发展过程,VTCI值越小表示干旱灾害越严重.当旬的VTCI平均值与前一旬的降水量有着较高的相关性,利用VTCI模型能够近实时进行干旱监测,具有较高的业务化应用前景.     

Rural refugees in Africa: Past experience, future pointers

Rapid change In rural Africa raises new policy problems In dealing with mass influxes of rural refugees. Self-settlement in agriculture has become less feasible and is less acceptable now that Its disadvantages are better understood. Organized smallholder settlement can be a better solution where it is economically viable, refugees have freedom of movement, and staff are suitable. But growing land shortage means that Increasing proportions of refugees are being placed in camps. To offset this trend, more attention is suggested to programmes for groups of refugees, categorized by time of arrival, by ability to self-settle or to farm, and by skills and experience. Practically-oriented social science research can contribute to these and other approaches which will require imagination and ingenuity. Solutions to future rural refugee problems should be linked with programmes of social and economic development which will make easier the achievement of humanitarian objectives.     

Learning from others: the scope and challenges for participatory disaster risk assessment

This paper develops a framework based on procedural, methodological and ideological elements of participatory vulnerability and risk assessment tools for placing individual approaches within the wide range of work that claims a participatory, local or community orientation. In so doing it draws on relevant experience from other areas of development practice from which the disasters field can learn. Participatory disaster risk assessments are examined for their potential to be empowering, to generate knowledge, to be scaled up, to be a vehicle for negotiating local change and as part of multiple-methods approaches to disaster risk identification and reduction. The paper is a response to an international workshop on Community Risk Assessment organised by ProVention Consortium and the Disaster Mitigation for Sustainable Livelihoods Programme, University of Cape Town. The workshop brought together practitioners and academics to review the challenges and opportunities for participatory methodologies in the field of disaster risk reduction. In conclusion the contribution made by participatory methodologies to global disaster risk reduction assessment and policy is discussed.     

Determining the future policies for disaster management in the southwest pacific

There are still deficiencies in the delivery of disaster aid and the overall policies need further re-examination. This paper looks at the particular circumstances of the island nations of the Southwest Pacific. In their context, dependence on outside help for counter-disaster management is recognised, but in the light of the present economic, social, cultural and political characteristics of these countries, it is concluded that aid donors should shift the emphasis of their activities to the promotion of a greater self-help approach in the individual countries, as against the provision of emergency material aid from outside. The extent to which this policy could be adopted depends on the local resource base. Rather than relying mainly on emergency ad hoc aid delivery following each disaster, it is considered that donors would improve the disaster response through the previous provision of advice, training and funds. This would facilitate the growth and development of internal counter-disaster organizatons, and assist countries to make their own decisions on the timing and nature of the aid required. Such a policy could also meet concerns that arise about external interference.     

透视我国城市综合灾害防御能力建设及其提升方略

新发展阶段下推动城市高质量安全发展是国家城镇化战略的重要战略方向.城市综合灾害防御能力的提升是新发展理念背景下推动城市构建新发展格局的重要保障.首先分析了综合灾害防御能力的时代需求,尤其是2012年以来我国逐步形成的灾害防治总体需求.其次基于综合灾害防御能力的学术内涵,进一步从灾害风险防范的结构体系和功能体系分析了其在...     

Resident preferences for augmented rainstorm disasters management strategies: the case of Nanjing in China

In recent years, rainstorm disasters have enormously negative effect on property safety and life safety in Nanjing. In order to achieve the consistency of optimal social supply of rainstorm disasters prevention management strategies and public sector supply, this paper studies citizens’ preferences for augmented strategies in Nanjing. Using a choice experiment approach, we consider willingness-to-pay (WTP) for augmented efforts for non-structural reform strategy of rainstorm runoff control, structural reform strategy of rainstorm drainage and non-structural education. Our results showed that citizens were generally in favor of augmented rainstorm disaster prevention management strategies, but with varying degrees. They were most favorable to increased educational effort that does not physically affect rainstorm, with the WTP of ¥134.29 a year. Followed by improvements in Non-structural Reform Strategy of Rainstorm Runoff Control, its WTP was ¥88.08 a year. The improving Structural Reform Strategy of Rainstorm drainage was less influential, but still significantly affected policy choice with the WTP of ¥55.42 a year. Specifically, the results of latent class model best confirmed the assumption that individual preference is heterogeneous. Furthermore, in order to gain the support of the public, policy-makers should advance publicly linked strategies such as mentioned in this study that appear most useful.     

Tears,fears and cheers: responses to the post‐disaster school relocation policy in China

This paper reports on the results of a qualitative study on the responses of Chinese school children in one junior middle school and their parents to China's post‐disaster school relocation policy. The sample comprised 22 pairs of parent–child dyads and two pupils whose parents could not be contacted. The study results were reported using Chambers and Wedel's (2009) conceptual framework, which delineates the fundamental elements of a policy. Content analysis was used to generate themes related to policy elements, such as goals, benefits and services. Both repetitive themes and idiosyncratic perspectives were reported so as to present a diversity of views. Despite adjustment difficulties and administrative problems reported by the study participants, the policy attention given to the rapid restoration of formal schooling for children was generally appreciated. The move back to the new school was greeted with cheer.     

洞庭湖退田还湖区避灾生态农业模式研究

鉴于洞庭湖区1998年冬至2000年春实施退田还湖工程后水面扩大,耕地减少的问题,围绕减灾与可持续发展这一主题,应用种植业、养殖业生态工程原理,分别在单退垸、双退垸区建立了数年一淹区、常年淹水区、季节性淹水区、渍水低湖田等多种避灾生态农业模式,并提出了相应的科学对策,以合理利用退田还湖区的资源与空间,尽快形成具有避洪耐渍兼高效生态经济功能的现代农业复合生态系统。     

The feasibility of concentrated rural settlement in a context of post‐disaster reconstruction: a study of China

There is growing appreciation of the use of concentrated rural settlement as an effective means of implementing infrastructure projects and helping to achieve sustainable development in rural areas. This occurs in China through the exchange of rural residential land for urban construction. However, this policy has not been effective under normal circumstances (called development‐driven conditions) as frequently farmers are reluctant to accept such an exchange. By contrast, in a time of disaster, such as after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, rural victims have accepted this policy of rural residential land exchange. Employing game theory, this paper identifies the reasons for the different outcomes and it contends that the implementation of concentrated rural settlement practice under disaster‐induced conditions is more effective than its introduction under development‐driven conditions. The results of the analysis indicate that, in China, concentrated rural settlement is feasible in a context of post‐disaster reconstruction.     

Disaster risk reduction and the evolution of physical development regulation

In 1984 the Mitigation Implementation Conference recognized the need for effective management of urban development in terms of building standards and land-use zonation. In the intervening 25 years, significant progress has been made in the development of building codes and hazard mapping for disaster risk reduction; however, the failure to promulgate, implement and enforce regulation of development has resulted in the dramatic expansion of exposure and risk. It is now necessary to re-assess regulatory policy and practice. New approaches to regulatory compliance must be explored, including participatory regulation and reliance on cultural and religious bases for individual commitment to community safety.     

基于BOTDR技术的隧道衬砌应变测量温度补偿实例分析

应变数据的温度补偿一直是光纤应变传感技术(如BOTDR)应用于实际工程的主要障碍,虽然目前有了不少理论方法试图解决这个问题,但实际运用起来却效果不佳。本文通过对云南白泥井3号隧道光纤应变监测项目的实例分析,提出了一种新的BOTDR温度补偿方法。应用该方法对白泥井3号隧道进行的温度场分析表明,隧道内空气温度场的温度变化明显要大于隧道结构温度场,而在总体的温度变化趋势上,它们都同当地的气候条件保持一致。     

The futility of rights‐based humanitarian aid to the Occupied Palestinian Territories

A rights‐based approach (RBA) to humanitarian aid is intrinsic to Norwegian policy and should inform Norwegian aid to the Occupied Palestinian Territories, one of the main receivers of Norwegian aid. However, this is the case only to a limited extent. While Norwegian humanitarian non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) take RBA seriously, and design their projects in accordance with its principles, they are unable to pursue a programme of long‐term structural change. This is because the main duty‐bearer, Israel, is indifferent or hostile to their work, while Norway's foreign policy is given higher priority than following through a rights‐based agenda. The result of this situation is a large, long‐standing aid effort that is unable to provide more than temporary relief in a steadily deteriorating situation. The Palestinian case suggests that RBA in humanitarianism may lead to frustration rather than human liberation when not backed up by political power.     

气候变化和人类活动对天津海岸带影响综述

21世纪全球海平面上升和区域地面沉降叠加所致的相对海平面上升速率存在加快趋势,将加剧天津沿海地区风暴潮、洪涝灾害和土地淹没的危害,影响沿海地区的城市抗灾功能、建筑物安全及生态资源。为此,本文综合讨论了气候变化导致的海平面上升和地面沉降对天津沿海风暴潮、海岸侵蚀以及港口码头的影响。建议滨海新区建设要高度重视海洋灾害的监测预警,提高沿海地区防潮和防汛工程的设计标准和城市抗灾能力,以有效实现滨海新区经济和社会可持续发展。     

基于W ebG IS的防震减灾系统研究与设计

开发基于新技术的防震减灾系统以更好地开展大中城市的防震减灾工作是地震工作者亟待解决的重要问题。详细介绍了所开发的基于W ebG IS和人工智能技术的防震减灾信息管理与智能决策支持系统。开发中,以A rcIM S为开发平台,建造了基于GM L(G eography M arkup L anguage)的3层B/S结构(客户端、服务器层、数据库层)的防震减灾W ebG IS体系;采用GM L描述空间数据,构建基于GM L的地理空间数据模型,实现异构数据间的互访;引入A gen t技术,构造出基于多A gen t的智能决策支持系统,通过一系列的A gen t来代替决策支持系统中的功能单元,并以“黑板”为中介,协同A gen t间的工作,以合作求解复杂问题,实现智能化的辅助决策。     

Constructing vulnerability: the historical, natural and social generation of flooding in metropolitan Manila

Flooding is not a recent hazard in the Philippines but one that has occurred throughout the recorded history of the archipelago. On the one hand, it is related to a wider global ecological crisis to do with climatic change and rising sea levels but on the other hand, it is also the effect of more localised human activities. A whole range of socio-economic factors such as land use practices, living standards and policy responses are increasingly influencing the frequency of natural hazards such as floods and the corresponding occurrence of disasters. In particular, the reason why flooding has come to pose such a pervasive risk to the residents of metropolitan Manila has its basis in a complex mix of inter-relating factors that emphasise how the nature of vulnerability is constructed through the lack of mutuality between environment and human activity over time. This paper examines three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of an historical approach in understanding how hazards are generated; second, the degree of interplay between environment and society in creating risk; and third, the manner in which vulnerability is a complex construction.     

Flood policy reversal in australia

In 1977 the Government of New South Wales introduced a flood prone lands policy which attempted to break with the past emphasis on structural works. Cornerstones of the policy were the preparation of floodplain maps, and use of the 1:100 (100 year or 1%) flood to delineate floodplains and 1:20 flood for floodway definition. The fiscal and regulatory elements of the policy were to be applied more or less uniformly within the two zones. At first there was little effective opposition to the program, but this changed when large areas of Sydney, which had not been inundated since development, were mapped. Local government concern over issues of legal liability led to decisions which in turn prompted opposition to the policy from residents' action groups and property development interests. A perceived drop in property values provided the main motivation for action by residents. This pressure for change, which intensified just before the 1984 state election, saw the policy overturned.
The new policy gives local government greater responsibility for floodplain management. State authorities have withdrawn from floodplain mapping, although technical advice will continue to be provided, and there are no longer any uniform floodplain or floodway definitions. Policy implementation is to be guided by a Manual which attempts to define flood hazard in terms of both physical and social criteria.     

Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends

Global maps of natural hazard occurrence and risk are useful tools for policy makers and international development organizations. The ranking of countries or regions by relative exposure provides a metric for prioritizing strategies for natural hazard mitigation and risk management, and for planning for response and recovery. However, the calculations underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highly variable from region to region, and may impede the application of global rankings to regional decision making. This paper summarizes a recent synthesis of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data—the World Bank's “Hotspots” project—and describes the advantages and difficulties in such an approach. Several suggestions for more highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses are made.