Case-control and cross-sectional methods for estimating crash modification factors: comparisons from roadway lighting and lane and shoulder width safety effect studies

Problem

While observational before-after studies are considered the industry standard for developing crash modification factors (CMFs), there are practical limitations that may preclude their use in highway safety analysis. There is a need to explore alternative methods for estimating CMFs.

Method

This paper employs case-control and cross-sectional analyses to estimate CMFs for fixed roadway lighting and the allocation of lane and shoulder widths.

Results

Based on the case-control method, the CMF for intersection lighting is 0.886, while the cross-sectional study indicates a CMF of 0.881. The CMFs developed for lane and shoulder widths are also similar when comparing the two methods.

Conclusions

This paper suggests that case-control and cross-sectional studies produce consistent results if care is taken in the study design and model development.

Impact on industry

Case-control and cross-sectional studies may provide a viable alternative to estimate CMFs when a before-after study is impractical due to data restrictions.     

体系安全性分析的双层次框架

为识别体系(So S)中的薄弱环节、评价威胁风险并提高体系安全性,根据安全系统工程和体系工程理论,提出体系安全性基本概念。基于复杂网络科学和传统安全分析技术,提出一种双层次分析框架,从脆弱性角度和威胁风险角度研究体系安全性。脆弱性分析可从拓扑结构和非拓扑因素2方面识别对体系安全较关键的脆弱点;威胁风险分析能得到脆弱点面临的任意威胁组合,并识别后果较严重的威胁风险。结果表明:体系安全性包括宏观的脆弱性应对能力,和微观的威胁风险控制能力。体系安全性分析需宏观和微观双层次相结合,全面考虑体系安全性诸因素。基于识别结果的威胁评价将提高安全分析的针对性和效率。     

Safety effects of street lighting on roadway segments: Development of a crash modification function

Objective: Nighttime crashes are overrepresented on the U.S. highway system. Roadway lighting, which provides additional visibility by supplementing vehicle headlights, has been identified as an effective countermeasure to improve nighttime safety. However, the existing literature does not provide a thorough understanding of the effects of street lighting photometric characteristics on nighttime crash occurrence on roadway segments. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between lighting photometric measures and nighttime crash risk on roadway segments and develop a crash modification function/factor (CMF).

Methods: The research team collected horizontal illuminance data on 440 roadway segments between 2 successive signalized intersections in Florida for 2012–2014 and matched 4 years of nighttime and daylight crash data (2011–2014). Random parameter negative binomial models were estimated for both nighttime and daylight crash frequencies. The expected night-to-day crash odds ratio, as an equivalent of CMF, was derived from the fitted models with the correction of estimation variances. The confidence intervals (CIs) of the developed CMF were estimated using the Cox method.

Results: The coefficient of the mean of horizontal illuminance is significantly negative in the nighttime model. The coefficients of the standard deviation of horizontal illuminance are significantly positive and normally distributed in both the nighttime and daylight models. The significance of the standard deviation in the daylight model captures the confounding effects—a high standard deviation correlates with high traffic exposures, poor safety design standards, and low maintenance quality. The CMF based on the expected daylight-to-day odds ratio was developed as an exponential function of the increments and the increment squares of the mean and the standard deviation of horizontal illuminance. Its 95% CIs indicate that the CMF is almost significant over the whole range. Other significant variables contributing to nighttime crash risk include annual average daily traffic, truck percentage, segment length, access density, undivided roads, and urban/city limits.

Conclusions: Horizontal illuminance characteristics have a significant impact on nighttime crash risk on roadway segments. An increase in the mean of horizontal illuminance, indicating an improvement in average lighting level, tends to decrease nighttime crash risk; an increase in the standard deviation, representing a poor uniformity of lighting pattern on a roadway segment, is more likely to raise nighttime crash risk. Because the 2 measures are strongly correlated in a low mean range (<0.44 fc), the 2 photometric measures need to be considered together to interpret the safety effects of lighting patterns. The standard deviation shows better performance in measuring lighting uniformity on a roadway segment than the traditional ratios (max-to-min and mean-to-min). However, a new photometric measure is needed to capture the true lighting pattern influencing driver vision at night.     

Estimating the safety performance of urban intersections in Lisbon,Portugal

According to official statistics, a large percentage of crashes in Portugal are reported on urban roads. For instance, from 2004 to 2007, about 70% of all injury accidents and 43% of the fatalities occurred inside urban agglomerations. This important safety problem has also been observed on the urban network of Lisbon. Understanding this significant problem, the Government of the Portuguese Republic via its research grant agency – The Foundation for Science and Technology – funded a project whose primary objective consists of developing tools that would help estimating the safety performance of various components of the urban highway system in Lisbon. This paper documents one component of the safety tools that were developed and describes the steps that were taken to develop predictive models for estimating the safety performance of signalized and unsignalized intersections of Lisbon. Several crash predictive models were developed using the Poisson-gamma modeling framework. Two types of models were estimated: flow-only and models with covariates. They were estimated using crash and other related data collected at 44 three-legged and 50 four-legged intersections for the years 2004–2007, inclusively. It was found that some highway geometric design characteristics were associated with the crashes occurring at urban three- and four-legged intersections in Lisbon.     

矿山安全管理核心框架结构研究

矿业是人类文明进步、国民经济发展和科学技术革命的基础,矿山生产又是工业事故频发的高危行业。改革开放以来,随着经济的发展,我国对矿产资源的开发与利用强度不断加大,矿山生产事故多发,形势十分严峻。安全管理是矿山生产解决和消除各种不安全因素,防止事故发生最重要的手段。本文通过对我国矿山安全生产管理的研究与实践,首次提出关于矿山安全生产管理核心框架结构RS理论。认为矿山安全生产管理核心框架是建立在安全战略目标与规划基础上的风险监测与预控管理、安全文化建设和安全监管。安全文化建设包括本质安全化,企业安全理念与员工综合素质以及安全制度建设,安全文化建设是安全生产管理应该关注的重点内容。论文为我国矿山企业安全生产管理提供了有益参考。     

安全生产规划体系框架探讨

阐述了建立安全生产规划体系的必要性,探讨了安全生产规划的定义、研究对象、目的和内容,指出安全生产规划是为使安全生产与经济社会协调发展而预先对未来一段时间内各项安全生产工作所做的时间和空间的合理安排,具有整体性、综合性、动态性、前瞻性、信息密集和政策性强等特征。同时设计了"四级、三层"的安全生产规划体系,即在行政层级上分为国家级、省级、市级和县级四个层级,在协调作用上分为宏观指导层、项目布局层和方案实施层三个层次。国家安全生产规划从宏观上对全国安全生产工作做出谋划与部署,省级安全生产规划要接受国家安全生产规划宏观指导性的引导和要求,并结合各地实际进行项目布局,同时借助专项规划分解内容,制定市、县级规划实施方案。     

二次过街路口行人违反交通法规规律的研究

为了解在不同类型二次过街路口行人违反交通法规闯红灯的违法率,找出二次过街路口不同参数对行人违法率的影响,从而找出降低路口行人违法率的对策,保障路口行人交通安全和人车流畅通,本文选取上海市5种类型的二次过街路口调查行人在路口的违法率.通过分析调查数据,行人在路口一次穿越车道数为2～7,两次穿越车道总数为6～12,违法率随车道数的增加而降低.在红灯等待时间90 s之内,行人违法率随等待时间的升高呈一定的下降趋势.红灯等待时间在90～150 s之间,行人违法率没有确定的规律.安全岛、引导护栏、中继信号灯等设施具有明显降低行人违法率的作用.根据二次过街路口设置安全岛、引导护栏、中继信号灯、车道数以及是否从路边穿越5个影响因素的安全评价系数之和建立综合安全评价系数,得到行人在二次过街路口违法率随综合安全评价系数的增大而降低.研究表明,完善和优化二次过街路口的设施参数可以降低路口行人违法率.     

Development of conflict techniques for left-turn and cross-traffic at protected left-turn signalized intersections

To design comprehensive traffic safety measures, the risk of the occurrence of traffic accidents must be objectively evaluated. It is difficult, however, to evaluate the effects of traffic measures in terms of the change in the number of traffic accidents, because traffic accidents are unpredictable and rare events. Therefore, this study used a traffic conflict technique to objectively evaluate traffic safety at intersections. In this study, traffic conflicts that occur at the time of a signal violation were differentiated according to type, and a traffic conflict technology was developed that would consider the severity of each type of conflict. To apply this method, traffic images were collected from the Jungja intersection and the Naejung intersection in Sungnam City, Korea and were analyzed using traffic data by means of image procedure technology. The analyses showed that of the four levels of differentiated conflict conditions, the Level 1 condition occurred most often, followed by Level 2, which occurred much less frequently than Level 1. Level 3 (serious conflicts) and Level 4 (dangerous conflicts: accidents) conditions were not detected.     

Mine safety information technology in the framework of Digital Mine

Digital Mine is a key research domain of Digital Earth. Because of the spatio-temporal, three-dimensional and intrinsically dynamic nature of mine safety management data, it is difficult to make a breakthrough in this domain. As a key part of Digital Mine, the construction of the Digital Mine Safety Management System (DMSMS) pushes Digital Mine a step forward from operation as a mere concept to achievement as a realistic system. In this paper, the technical framework of the DMSMS in the framework of Digital Mine is discussed, including its data, function and application layers. A key technology is then studied in detail that will enable the construction of the three-dimensional geological environment and the visualization and integration of the mine safety data.     

2006年促进职业安全与健康框架公约和建议书介绍及相关问题探讨

《2006年促进职业安全与健康框架公约》(C187,2006)和《职业安全与健康框架建议书》(R197,2006)的公布是为了进一步减少全球发生的大量职业性伤病和死亡,保护工人免受因就业而引发的病患和伤害,降低职业性伤病和死亡对劳动生产率和经济与社会发展的负面影响。本文对《公约》及《建议书》的主要内容,包括《公约》中的定义、《公约》制定的目标、国家政策、国家制度、国家计划等进行了详细的介绍和分析,以期继续推广预防性安全健康文化建设。     

Some determinants of possible injuries in crashes at signalized intersections

INTRODUCTION: This paper identifies some determinants of possible injuries from crashes that occur at signalized intersections using a conditional probability model. METHOD: It uses longitudinal data for one city and calculates the marginal effects of these determinants. RESULTS: Among its findings, an airbag deploying in a crash reduces the conditional probability of sustaining possible injury. The size of this decrease is similar for the front airbag or both side airbags deploying. When crashes occur because a driver suddenly falls ill, or because a driver has an existing medical condition that flares up, the results show that the conditional probability of sustaining possible injury increases by 0.1414 and 0.1217, respectively. In comparison the conditional probability of sustaining possible injury increases by 0.0706 when the crash is because of impairment from drugs or alcohol. Additionally, the probability of sustaining possible injury in the event of a crash is 0.0435 and 0.0459 higher in passenger cars and vans respectively than in other vehicles. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing these results to those in the traffic safety literature, the marginal effects from national data are similar to those from local level data.     

航空事故调查中人的因素安全建议框架研究

对航空事故中人的不安全行为进行了系统分析,将失误划分为感知失误、记忆失误、决策失误、技能失误4个类别,将违章划分为习惯性违章和偶然性违章。将人的因素干预维度确定为组织管理、人/团队、技术、任务和环境。针对不安全行为制定相应的初步改进措施后,还需从措施的可行性、可接受性、经济性和有效性4个方面进行综合评估和取舍。实证研究表明,人的因素干预矩阵是制定安全建议的有效工具,该框架具备良好的适用性。     

Efficacies of roadway safety improvements across functional subclasses of rural two-lane highways

Introduction

Highway crash occurrence is a leading cause of unnatural deaths, and highway agencies continually seek to identify engineering measures to reduce crashes and to assess the efficacy of such measures. Most past studies on the effectiveness of roadway improvements in terms of crash reduction considered all rural two-lane sections as a single category of roads. However, it may be hypothesized that the differences in the mobility and accessibility characteristics that are reflected in (and due to) the different design standards between different functional subclasses in the rural two-lane highway system can lead to differences in efficacies of safety improvements at these subclasses. This paper investigates the efficacy of roadway improvements, in terms of crash reduction, at the various subclasses of rural two-lane highways.

Methods

An empirical analysis of safety performance at each of the three subclasses of rural two-lane highways was carried out using the negative binomial modeling technique. For each subclass, crash prediction models were developed separately for the three levels of crash severity: property-damage only, injury, and fatal/injury. The crash factors that were considered include lane width, shoulder width, pavement surface friction, pavement condition, and horizontal and vertical alignments. After having developed the safety performance functions, the effectiveness (in terms of the extent of crash reduction, for different levels of crash severity) of highway safety enhancements at each highway subclass were determined using the theoretical concepts established in past literature. These enhancements include widening lanes, widening shoulders, enhancing pavement surface friction, and improving the vertical or horizontal alignment.

Results and Conclusion

The study found that there is empirical evidence to justify the decomposition of the family of rural two-lane roads into its constituent subclasses for purposes of analyzing the effectiveness of safety enhancement projects and thus to avoid underestimation or overestimation of benefits of safety improvements at this class of highways.     

Measurement of machinery safety level: European framework for product control: Particular case: Spanish framework for market surveillance

Current brief aims to introduce the concept of safety in European industrial sectors, particularly in mechanics and machinery industry. It also highlights the importance to ensure an even level of machinery safety along the European Union, setting up the appropriate frame and procedures to keep it under control. An overview over market surveillance activities for machinery (regulations, main actors and their roles) first at Community level, and secondly an approach to one of the Member States is also introduced.     

限速值对信号交叉口交通安全的影响分析

为研究交叉口进口道车辆限速值对交叉口的安全和运行产生的影响,通过微观仿真平台,分析车辆在交叉口限速分别为30,38和46 km/h时的车均延误、车均行程时间,并将车辆行驶轨迹输入安全辅助评价(SSAM)软件中展开分析。结果表明,车辆限速值的提高对车均延误的影响不大,但会减小车辆在进口道的车均行程时间。另外,限速值从30 km/h提高到46 km/h,引起的碰撞时间(TTC)、后侵占时间(PET)数值变化不显著,但使总冲突数从42个增加到59个。     

Occupational health and safety in the framework of corporate social responsibility

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has been defined as the voluntary integration of social and environmental concerns into the firm’s decision-making. The search for a good Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) environment and the promotion of a culture of risk prevention are two of the firm’s main social responsibilities, and consequently an integral part of CSR. This paper discusses how the growing interest in corporate social responsibility can contribute to improving the implementation of adequate systems of prevention. For this purpose, we study to what extent OHS issues are present in the field of CSR, and consequently determine which aspects have received the most attention, and which are less well developed; we offer some proposals as well. The methodology followed is a content analysis of the main international CSR management tools.     

Extending the J-value framework for safety analysis to include the environmental costs of a large accident

A severe accident on an industrial plant has the potential to cause, in addition to human harm, general damage and hence expense, associated with ground contamination, evacuation of people and business disruption, for example. The total cost of damages, given the name “environmental costs” in this paper, may be comparable with or larger than the cost of direct health consequences, as assessed objectively by the J-value approach. While the low probability of the accident may mean that the expectation of monetary loss is small, the paper develops a utility-based approach to determine how much should be spent on protection systems to protect against both environmental costs and human harm. The behaviour of the fair decision maker in an organisation facing possible environmental costs is represented by an Atkinson Utility function, which is dependent on the organisation's assets and on the elasticity of marginal utility or, equivalently, the coefficient of relative risk aversion, “risk-aversion” for short. A Second Judgment Value, J₂, may be derived from the spend on the protection system after subtracting the amount sanctioned to prevent direct human harm. This net, environmental expenditure is divided by the most that it is reasonable to spend to avert environmental costs at the highest, rational risk-aversion. The denominator in this ratio is found by first calculating the maximum, sensible spend at a risk-aversion of zero, and then multiplying this figure by a Risk Multiplier to give the maximum, fair amount to avert environmental costs. The Risk Multiplier incorporates a risk-aversion that is as large as it can be without rendering the organisation's safety decisions indiscriminate and hence random. An overall, Total Judgment Value, the J_T-value, may also be calculated, which takes into account the reduction in both human harm and environmental cost brought about by the protection system. The new J_T-value will show similar behaviour to the original J-value, in that J_T-values up to unity will indicate reasonable value for money, while J_T-values greater than unity will indicate a prima facie overspend on protection that will need to be justified by further argument. While the analysis is phrased in terms of environmental costs, the treatment is sufficiently general for all costs, including onsite damages, loss of capability etc. to be included. The new, J_T-value method provides for a full and objective evaluation of the worth of any industrial protection system. A worked example is given.     

Developing a framework for safety validation of multi-stakeholder changes in air transport operations

The high volume of air traffic over Europe is expected to double within the next 15 years. This requires changes in the airspace structure and in the organisation of air transport operations that involve multiple stakeholders. Changes, by regulation, require a sufficient safety validation, in order to show that the changed situation is safe and will remain safe during an applicable period. Many methods and techniques exist that can be used to support such safety validation process. However, for air transport operations, the stakeholders involved are numerous and diverse, and there are no guidelines on how to address their roles, responsibilities and goals during development and validation.This paper develops a safety validation framework that emphasises the active roles and collaboration of multiple stakeholders during the development phases of air transport operations. The framework is developed in three steps: First, established validation views from literature are identified and analysed to reveal open issues when it comes to their use for multi-stakeholder changes in air transport operations. Next, validation views emerging beyond the established ones are identified, and evaluated on whether they address the open issues. Finally, the strong points of established and emerging views are combined into a novel framework.     

The safety observer effect: the effects of conducting safety observations

INTRODUCTION: Some research suggests that conducting safety observations of another's safety performance may serve as an effective tool in increasing the safety performance of the observer. The primary purpose of the present study was to assess the effects of conducting safety observations on the postural safety performance of observers engaging in an assembly task for short time periods. The secondary objectives of the study were: (a) to measure productivity, and (b) to measure the accuracy of participant safety observations. METHOD: An ABC (A: baseline, B: information, C: observation) multiple-baseline design counterbalanced across postural behaviors (back, shoulder, and feet position) was implemented with six participants. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Substantial improvements in postural safety occurred after participants conducted safety observations, and these improvements did not appear to negatively affect productivity. Results also suggest that there is no relation between the accuracy of an observer's safety observation and their subsequent safety performance. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: This research provides evidence that a safety observation process can function to increase safe postural behavior of observers. Thus, the implementation of such a process may contribute to the prevention of musculoskeletal disorders and related costs in the workplace.