First principles,second hand: Perceptions and interpretations of vision zero in Norway

The article discusses the Norwegian version of the Swedish road safety concept Vision Zero, and how it has been interpreted and developed in its Norwegian context. Vision Zero has attracted considerable interest and support in many parts of the world, and it seems likely that the Vision Zero philosophy will continue to be a strong influence on international road safety work. It is not a given, however, that a vision will have the same kind of impact outside of the country and context where it was first developed. We briefly describe the official Norwegian documents of the vision, the main part of the article, however, is based on interviews with various actors in the Norwegian road safety system, in order to find how the vision is interpreted and perceived among those working with transport and road safety. Interviewees include politicians, representatives for the National Public Roads Administration, Council for Road Safety and Police, as well as NGOs. We find that the interpretative flexibility of the vision and relative lack of public debate have created a situation where actors focus on different aspects of the vision, and on different levels, from theoretical questions of ethics to specific practical questions of implementation. On the whole, it seems that the connection between the different levels of the vision are somewhat tenuous, and in this situation actors are relatively free to construct their own interpretation, rather than building one shared vision. While the modified Norwegian approach may very well prove effective, it nevertheless raises the question of what a “Vision Zero” approach means.     

Quantifying Vision Zero: Crash avoidance in rural and motorway accident scenarios by combination of ACC,AEB, and LKS projected to German accident occurrence

Abstract

Objective: The Vision Zero initiative pursues the goal of eliminating all traffic fatalities and severe injuries. Today’s advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are an important part of the strategy toward Vision Zero. In Germany in 2018 more than 26,000 people were killed or severely injured by traffic accidents on motorways and rural roads due to road accidents. Focusing on collision avoidance, a simulative evaluation can be the key to estimating the performance of state-of-the-art ADAS and identifying resulting potentials for system improvements and future systems.

This project deals with the effectiveness assessment of a combination of ADAS for longitudinal and lateral intervention based on German accident data. Considered systems are adaptive cruise control (ACC), autonomous emergency braking (AEB), and lane keeping support (LKS).

Methods: As an approach for benefit estimation of ADAS, the method of prospective effectiveness assessment is applied. Using the software rateEFFECT, a closed-loop simulation is performed on accident scenario data from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) precrash matrix (PCM). To enable projection of results, the simulative assessment is amended with detailed single case studies of all treated cases without PCM data.

Results: Three categories among today’s accidents on German rural roads and motorways are reported in this study: Green, grey, and white spots.

Green spots identify accidents that can be avoided by state-of-the-art ADAS ACC, AEB, and LKS. Grey spots contain scenarios that require minor system modifications, such as reducing the activation speed or increasing the steering torque. Scenarios in the white category cannot be addressed by state-of-the-art ADAS. Thus, which situations demand future systems are shown. The proportions of green, grey, and white spots are determined related to the considered data set and projected to the entire GIDAS.

Conclusions: This article describes a systematic approach for assessing the effectiveness of ADAS using GIDAS PCM data to be able to project results to Germany. The closed-loop simulation run in rateEFFECT covers ACC, AEB, and LKS as well as relevant sensors for environment recognition and actuators for longitudinal and lateral vehicle control.

Identification of green spots evaluates safety benefits of state-of-the-art level 0–2 functions as a baseline for further system improvements to address grey spots. Knowing which accidents could be avoided by standard ADAS helps focus the evolution of future driving functions on white spots and thus aim for Vision Zero.     

Strengthening road safety strategy development ‘Towards Zero’ 2008–2020 – Western Australia’s experience scientific research on road safety management SWOV workshop 16 and 17 November 2009

With a significant list of achievements in traffic safety over some 40 years, Australia’s most successful initiatives have emerged from consideration of the scientific basis for achieving effective results. Over time, the increasing use of scientific methods has matured to an extent whereby road safety strategies for entire jurisdictions are now being formed and optimised on the basis of evidence-based mathematical modelling of predicted strategy performance over periods of ten or more years ahead. This paper describes the approach used in the State of Western Australia (WA) to support the development of its new strategy, ‘Towards Zero’, addressing the 12-year period from 2008 to 2020. Also described is the early development of the modelling approach in the State of Victoria, Australia, subsequently applied, refined and adapted to Western Australia. The ‘Towards Zero’ strategy aims to ensure that road safety policies continue to evolve within a strategic framework, based on Australasia’s Safe System framework, which was derived from the best elements of the Swedish Vision Zero and the Dutch Sustainable Safety visions.The process for the development of the strategy involved a greater degree of community and stakeholder engagement than has been the case previously, based on the fundamental belief that the community should be provided with the best evidence about what works no matter how controversial, so that it can debate and consider the options available to improve safety.It is equally important to have a strategy based on the best possible evidence. The Monash University Accident Research Centre (MUARC) was appointed by the WA Office of Road Safety to identify, describe and recommend proven counter-measures within the Safe System framework and develop a series of scientifically sound directions and options.This paper outlines the modelling technique used by MUARC along with results and summarises the community consultation process.     

Road transport in drift? Applying contemporary systems thinking to road safety

Despite the extent to which the proximal causes of road traffic injury are known, road trauma remains a substantial and growing component of the global health burden. Application of contemporary sociotechnical systems theory to the problem of traffic injury suggests that the lack of progress globally may be a consequence of “drift into failure”. This article considers the new systems perspective on safety, explores the utility of this approach for road safety efforts, and specifically examines the ‘drift into failure’ hypothesis. It is argued that road transport systems do currently display characteristics of complex systems in drift and that greater understanding of complexity theory-based models will support improved road safety efforts. However, the extent to which such models can support road safety practitioners appears to be limited by the lack of practical tools for translating theory to practice. The article concludes by drawing attention to similarities between complex systems theory and the contexts in which the discipline of Human Factors has been developed, and suggests that Human Factors methodologies could be usefully used to facilitate further research in this field.     

Progress towards zero,an international comparison: Improvements in traffic fatality from 1990 to 2010 for different age groups in the USA and 15 of its peers

IntroductionIn January 2015, the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) announced that the official target of the federal government transportation safety policy was zero deaths. Having a better understanding of traffic fatality trends of various age cohorts—and to what extent the US is lagging other countries—is a crucial first step to identifying policies that may help the USDOT achieve its goal.MethodIn this paper we analyze fatality rates for different age cohorts in developed countries to better understand how road traffic fatality patterns vary across countries by age cohort. Using benchmarking analysis and comparative index analysis based on panel data modelling and data for selected years between 1990 and 2010, we compare changes in the rate of road traffic fatality over time, as well as the absolute level of road traffic fatality for six age groups in the US, with 15 other developed countries.Results-ConclusionsOur findings illustrate tremendous variations in road fatality rates (both in terms of the absolute values and the rates of improvement over time) among different age cohorts in all of the 16 countries. Looking specifically at the US, our analysis shows that safety improvements for Youngsters (15-17 years old) was much better than for other age groups, and closely tracked peer countries. In sharp contrast, Children (0-14 years old) and Seniors (+65 years old) in the US, fare very poorly when compared to peer countries. For example, in 2010, Children in the US were a stunning five times more likely to experience a road traffic fatality than Children in the UK.Practical ApplicationsThis startling statistic suggests an immediate need to explore further the causes and potential solutions to these disparities. This is especially important if countries, including the US, are to achieve the ambitious goals set out in Zero Vision initiatives.     

二级公路成为事故之路的症结

二级公路交通事故多发 ,其症结在于道路的规划、设计和管理工作中存在许多不完善并急需改进之处。例如交通参与人素质与道路不协调 ,道路交通安全设施不完善 ,道路规划、建设受到行政干预 ,公路平面交叉口不规范等。解决二级公路交通安全问题需要从规划、设计和管理等诸多方面入手。因此 ,笔者建议建立公路规划、设计安全审计和责任追究制度 ;在选用公路等级、设计速度和限制速度时 ,以公路功能定位 ;根据交通安全法律、法规规定及时完善交通安全设施 ;强化交叉路口规范化管理和支线限速设计 ;加强交通安全管理力度 ,增加科技管理投入 ;由政府牵头 ,依靠公路沿线乡镇、单位和学校 ,深入持久地进行交通安全宣传教育 ,提高公路沿线居民的交通安全意识。     

Don't wait for accidents — possibilities to assess risk in traffic by applying the ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’

In Vienna during more than 10 years of research work a special traffic behaviour observation method has been developed, evaluated and applied by Risser et al. in the frame of many different traffic safety projects. Car drivers are accompanied by two observers who register not only errors in behaviour of drivers but also their communication and interaction with other road users. Malfunction of communication and interaction are judged as main sources for problems for danger in traffic. For example, if they lead to a bad traffic climate fealings of discomfort, anger and frustration will prevent cooperative actions of road users. Being able to recognize such negative or dangerous interaction patterns in time it seems to be easier to protect road users — most often the ‘unprotected’ ones — from getting involved in accidents. This contribution gives an impression about theory and practice of the observation method and shows results of different studies, where the method called ‘Wiener Fahrprobe’ has been applied. Furthermore it will show how the method and its results can be used in the frame of the European traffic (safety) research projects ‘PROMETHEUS’ and ‘DRIVE’. Till now no accident data exist in respect to new RTI systems. Therefore it seems to be important to have a sophisticated social-psychological method for testing the behaviour and interaction of road users in connection with these systems. This is a necessary prediction for deciding whether the systems are socially compatible or not.     

城市交通安全风险文化系统三维结构体系构建

为提高道路交通安全文化建设主体的广泛性、主动性、积极性,增强交通安全文化的社会凝聚、激励等功能,探讨构建一种新型的城市道路交通安全风险文化模式。应用道路交通安全风险理论、安全心理学理论、行为理论、系统分析理论与方法,研究城市道路交通安全风险文化的定义、系统模型及系统的逻辑关系、运行机制、承载和作用形式等内容。结果表明:从道路交通安全风险控制与应对的角度考虑,可以建立包括逻辑维度、运行机制维度、承载作用形式维度的城市交通安全风险文化系统三维结构体系。城市交通安全风险文化具有多层次、多层面、多维度复杂的主体结构,是多元素组成的复杂系统。     

汽车道路试验安全管理体系建设研究

为了保障汽车道路试验安全、提高安全管理水平,设计提出汽车道路试验安全管理体系(SMS)总方案。根据OHSAS 18001和安全标准化规范的特点分析,论证了融合两种体系建立道路试验SMS的适用性。并从政策与目标、风险管理、安全保证和安全促进四个模块阐述了该体系的搭建思路、框架内容和搭建步骤。最后,以某自主品牌车企研发中心道路试验的应用情况为例进行效果评估,结果表明:汽车道路试验SMS能有效防控风险、提升试验安全管理水平。     

关于区域环境保护政策的思考

本从通过分析我国环境保护政策存在的缺口和目前对这种理念的研究进展，并根据环境问题本身的特性以及环境问题产生的背景差异提出重新确立环境保护政策的调控范围的观点，并提出了这种观点对于对我国环境保护政策以及环境保护工作的重要意义。     

Road safety in France: The hard path toward science-based policy

Very considerable advances have been made in road safety over the long term and especially in the recent years. This improvement was achieved in part due to the effectiveness of French decision-making system, even if it remained very perfectible. An analysis of the road safety management system is carried out in order to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the organisation of road safety in France.The organisation of road safety in France is extremely centralised. The basis of road safety policy at the national level rests on an extensive information system (covering accidents, risk exposure, speed, utilisation of mobile phones) and on analyses of road risk (the risks attributable to alcohol, speed and the use of mobile phones).This statistical information and these risk models are integrated in risk management tools such as monitoring, ranking and policing. Monitoring makes it possible to track the development of road safety, bench-marking to compare the performance of the country’s different departments with each other, and policy making to refine the details of a policy.The development of the governance of road risk is leading managers and decision-makers to perfect data-gathering procedures, standardise and simplify the analytical tools used, and broaden the range of risks covered.     

Fatally injured drivers in Norway 2005–2015—Trends in substance use and crash characteristics

Objective: Norway introduced a “Vision Zero” strategy in 2001, using multiple approaches, aiming toward a future in which no one will be killed or seriously injured in road traffic crashes (RTCs). Official statistics show that the number of fatally injured road users has declined substantially from 341 deaths in 2000 to 117 in 2015. In-depth crash investigations of all fatal RTCs started in Norway in 2005. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fatal crash characteristics, vehicle safety features, and prevalence of drugs and/or alcohol among fatally injured drivers and riders has changed during 2005–2015, accompanying the reduction in road fatalities.

Methods: Data on all car/van drivers and motorcycle/moped riders fatally injured in RTCs during 2005–2015 were extracted from Norwegian road traffic crash registries and combined with forensic toxicology data.

Results: The proportion of cars and motorcycles with antilock braking systems and cars with electronic stability control, increased significantly during the study period. The prevalence of nonuse of seat belts/helmets and speeding declined among both fatally injured drivers and riders. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol declined, though no significant change in the total prevalence of other substances was noted.

Conclusion: The observed changes toward more safety installations in cars and motorcycles and lower prevalence of driver-related risk factors like alcohol use, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts/helmets among fatally injured drivers/riders may have contributed to the decrease in road traffic deaths.     

Reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control systems subjected to multiple error shocks

Two configurations of subsea blowout preventer (BOP) distributed control systems, which are triple modular redundancy (TMR) control system and double dual modular redundancy (DDMR) control system, are presented. With respect to common-cause failures, the performances of the two systems are evaluated by using Markov method with multiple error shock model. Due to the complexity, each system is split into three independent modules, and the corresponding Markov models are proposed subsequently. The probability of failure on demand, availability and reliability of the systems are evaluated by merging the independent Markov modules by Kronecker product approach. The results indicate that a same safety integrity level of SIL3 can be attained for the two configurations, which satisfies the requirement of subsea BOP control system, even though both of them have some advantages and shortcomings. In addition, for TMR control system, the effects of multiplicity distribution of multiple error shock and mean time to repair on reliability performances are studied.     

北京市道路交通安全现状分析及控制策略研究

在分析北京市道路交通安全形势以及事故特点的基础上,运用交通冲突理论分析道路交通事故发生的机理,论述道路交通事故发生的过程。并从安全系统工程学角度,使用交通事故显性/隐性致因模型对道路交通事故的致因因素进行分析,强调管理因素的重要性。最后,结合北京市道路交通现状,综合运用3E对策,讨论了改善道路交通安全的控制策略。通过加大违章行为惩罚力度、培养安全文化、建立道路交通事故应急救援体系以及应用智能交通技术等措施,消除道路交通系统中人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态,提高北京市道路交通安全水平。     

计算机辅助海运安全管理系统技术研究

以海运安全管理的基本理论与机制 ,强调保障安全必须通过管理实现对“人 -机 -环境”系统的有效干预 ,指出已实行数年的海运安全管理体系 (SMS) ,因系统庞大不便使用而妨碍了安全管理效能的发挥 ,而现有的管理信息系统技术对此作为甚小。鉴此 ,以语义Web和RDF技术为核心 ,研发了计算机辅助海运安全管理系统 (CASMS) ,包括海运安全文档知识库系统 (RDMS)、海运安全管理体系文档管理系统 (SMDS)、计算机辅助海运安全审核系统 (EES) ,为实现全面高效准确的SMS文件管理与工作表管理 ,提高海运公司和政府的SMS审核质量 ,实现地区级、国家级网络化安全管理提供了新技术。该技术可普遍用于质量管理体系、职业安全与健康管理体系、环境管理体系等系统及其综合系统。     

基于安全控制论的株洲冶炼厂的综合安全评价

对生产经营单位进行安全评价可以有效地预防事故发生,减少财产损失和人员伤亡及伤害,安全评价是安全生产管理的一个重要组成部分。综合安全评价是以安全控制论为理论基础的安全评价法。笔者从现代安全控制论角度,通过系统危险辨识、系统危险控制能力诊断,运用综合安全模型对株洲冶炼厂进行了安全评价。综合安全评价结果表明,一方面,株洲冶炼厂的安全度为56.13,处于临界状态;被评价的系统危险控制指数均为-0.24,说明其安全系统总体状况呈下降趋势。近20年来株洲冶炼厂的伤亡事故伤害频率有明显起伏波动的特点,当前的安全管理形势还非常严峻,应通过对全厂的安全评价,全面提高安全管理水平;另方面,基于安全控制论的综合安全评价是一种有效的安全评价方法,可以在各个大型厂矿得以推广应用。     

Organizational networks in road safety: Case studies of U.S. Vision Zero cities

Objective: Each year, more than 30,000 deaths occur on U.S. roads. Recognizing the magnitude and persistence of this public health problem, a number of U.S. cities have adopted a relatively new approach to prevention, termed Vision Zero (VZ). VZ has been adopted by more than 30?U.S. cities and calls for creating a transportation system that ensures that no road traffic crash results in death or serious injury. A core component of VZ is strong multidisciplinary and multisector stakeholder engagement, and cities adopting VZ often establish a VZ coalition to foster stakeholder collaboration. However, there is little information on the structure, development, and functioning of coalitions working to achieve VZ and on tools available to study and evaluate such coalition functioning. We sought to describe the characteristics of prominent U.S. VZ city coalitions and context surrounding VZ uptake and advancement in these cities. Moreover, we demonstrate use of network analysis as one tool for exploring the structure of interorganizational relationships in coalitions.

Methods: We conducted case studies of 4 prominent U.S. VZ city coalitions in 2017–2018. We summarized coalition members’ characteristics and responses to questions about their cities’ VZ adoption, planning, and implementation. We asked each coalition member to provide information on their contact frequency, perceived productivity, and resource sharing with every other coalition member in their city and used network analysis techniques in 2 cities to understand the structures and relationships in coalitions.

Results: Findings indicated that government agencies generally constituted the majority of coalition members and often played central roles in terms of coalition network contact, productivity, and resource flow. Other emerging similarities regarding coalition establishment and VZ implementation included the need for political support, the importance of formal plan development, and increased collaboration and cooperation among partners.

Conclusions: Organizational network analyses, enriched with coalition member interviews, can elucidate key aspects of coalition creation, attributes, and relationship structure. The case studies of leading VZ coalition networks presented here highlight the use of these tools. Ultimately, understanding associations between VZ network structures and attributes and road safety outcomes could help inform effective coalition adoption, implementation, and maintenance to optimize safety outcomes.     

Integrating human factors and systems engineering to reduce the risk of operator “error”

Introducing safety devices does not always reduce the frequency of accidents. Operators adjust their response to technological improvements. Protection mechanisms may be used to support “unsafe” working practices so that the net risk of failure remains unchanged or may even rise. Regulatory bodies have reacted against this risk compensation. Rules and procedures have been imposed upon the day-to-day operation of protection equipment. Unfortunately, these constraints often fail to preserve the safety of an application. Inattention, fatigue, poor training and willful neglect can lead to rules and guidelines being ignored. In this paper alternative means of reducing threats posed by risk compensation are explored. In particular, it is argued that designers must exploit an integrated approach to the development of high-risk applications. By this we mean that both human factors and systems engineering must be recruited to support the development of protection equipment.     

基于AHP可拓综合方法的公路隧道安全等级判定研究

研究了公路隧道安全现状的评价体系,并应用可拓集理论、层次分析法和有关隧道安全评价的专业知识,将可拓集理论与安全评价相结合,建立基于可拓学的公路隧道安全评价分析的物元模型。对辽宁阜新大巴沟隧道运用了这种新的安全评价方法,实践表明:基于AHP可拓综合方法的公路隧道安全评价方法可以准确反映公路隧道的安全等级。