道路条件安全性分析

对道路上发生的相关交通事故情况与道路条件安全性的关系进行了分析,对比分析了大量国内外事故绝对数、事故率等统计数据.结果表明,简单的交通事故的绝对数反映的道路条件安全性不够准确;交通事故的事故率能够很好地反映道路路面、道路线形、道路横断面、道路交叉口以及道路照明等道路条件的安全性;其中路面摩阻系数是道路条件安全性的一个重要表征指标;道路平纵曲线的重合对道路条件安全性的影响较大.揭示了道路交通事故多发与各种不利道路条件之间存在的内在关系,证明了道路条件的安全性可以用道路上发生的相关交通事故情况来分析与评价的可行性.     

The role of safety research in road safety management

Mobility is a matter of great importance in daily life: However, it also causes costs and involves accident risks. To make mobility safer and reduce accident risks, a scientifically based road safety management is needed. Within such a safety management system, a concert of adequate and efficient strategies, tools and measures is developed and implemented. To ensure that the chosen means are efficient they should be derived from research evidence. Secondly, research is also needed to regularly monitor the impact of road safety management tools, serving as a “controlling instrument” for the appropriateness of safety management efforts. This article explains the main strategic aspects of safety management in Germany and illustrates it exemplarily on the basis of two recently implemented road safety measures.     

Editorial safety science special issue road safety management

The articles presented in this Special Issue on Road Safety Management represent an illustration of the growing interest in policy-related research in the area of road safety. The complex nature of this type of research combined with the observation that scientific journals pay limited attention to this type of research was the background for SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research in the Netherlands to organise a workshop on Scientific Research on Road Safety Management. This workshop generated a lot of attention in the road safety research community as well in the policy making community, and it was decided – in addition to the nine articles based on the presentations at the workshop – to include another seven articles which are considered of relevance for the chosen topic of this special issue.     

Benchmarking road safety performances of countries

In order to obtain political interest in road safety problems and to learn from other countries’ ‘good practices’, it is often helpful to compare one’s own safety situation with that of other countries. In a number of projects tools have been developed for such comparisons. These tools range from simple ratings of countries on their safety outcomes, such as the annual number of fatalities per capita or per kilometre driven by (motor)vehicles to more comprehensive comparisons.These comparisons not only show differences in safety between countries, but to a certain extent also explain such differences in terms of their safety background and measures taken. Finally, tools have been defined to support road safety policy makers in developing possible safety measures or actions. Procedures for such complex safety comparisons have been developed and tested in several so-called SUNflower studies.This promising approach can be further developed into standard procedures for safety comparisons between all countries in the European Union, and other countries worldwide. This paper wishes to outline the development of such standards for the benchmarking of road safety and safety trends as well as procedures for quantifying safety performances of countries.Starting point of this conceptual framework is the so-called SUNflower-pyramid in which three types of indicators are distinguished. The first one of these, the road safety performance indicator, is called an outcome indicator and is based on the number of killed and injured road users. The second indicator type indicates the quality of the implementation of road safety policies: the implementation performance indicators. The third type of indicator indicates the quality of response in policy documents to improve road safety (policy performance indicator). The three types of indicators are embedded in a policy context: the structure and culture of a country, which are considered as background variables.This paper sets out to describe the framework for the development of a comprehensive set of indicators to benchmark road safety performances of countries or of sub-national jurisdictions. The paper also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of combining such indicators and if combined, how to aggregate how different indicators in one composite performance index. It is argued to group countries in different classes with more or less comparable countries. Different procedures are used for this grouping. The results are promising and it is recommended to work with classes of countries.     

关于区域环境保护政策的思考

本从通过分析我国环境保护政策存在的缺口和目前对这种理念的研究进展，并根据环境问题本身的特性以及环境问题产生的背景差异提出重新确立环境保护政策的调控范围的观点，并提出了这种观点对于对我国环境保护政策以及环境保护工作的重要意义。     

Commentary: Status of road safety in Asia

Objectives: The objective of this article is to assess the status of road safety in Asia and present accident and injury prevention strategies based on global road safety improvement experiences and discuss the way forward by indicating opportunities and countermeasures that could be implemented to achieve a new level of safety in Asia.

Methods: This study provides a review and analyses of data in the literature, including from the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank, and a review of lessons learned from best practices in high-income countries. In addition, an estimation of costs due to road transport injuries in Asia and review of future trends in road transport is provided.

Results: Data on the global and Asian road safety problem and status of prevention strategies in Asia as well as recommendations for future actions are discussed. The total number of deaths due to road accidents in the 24 Asian countries, encompassing 56% of the total world population, is 750,000 per year (statistics 2010). The total number of injuries is more than 50 million, of which 12% are hospital admissions. The loss to the economy in the 24 Asian countries is estimated to around US$800 billion or 3.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Conclusions: This article clearly shows that road safety is causing large problems and high costs in Asia, with an enormous impact on the well-being of people, economy, and productivity. In many Asian low- and middle-income countries, the yearly number of fatalities and injuries is increasing. Vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists combined) are particularly at risk. Road safety in Asia should be given rightful attention, including taking powerful, effective actions. This review stresses the need for reliable accident data, because there is considerable underreporting in the official statistics. Reliable accident data are imperative to determine evidence-based intervention strategies and monitor the success of these interventions and analyses. On the other hand, lack of good high-quality accident data should not be an excuse to postpone interventions. There are many opportunities for evidence-based transport safety improvements, including measures concerning the 5 key risk factors: speed, drunk driving, not wearing motorcycle helmets, not wearing seat belts, and not using child restraints in cars, as specified in the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020. In this commentary, a number of additional measures are proposed that are not covered in the Decade of Action Plan. These new measures include separate roads or lanes for pedestrians and cyclists; helmet wearing for e-bike riders; special attention to elderly persons in public transportation; introduction of emerging collision avoidance technologies, in particular automatic emergency braking (AEB) and alcohol locks; improved truck safety focusing on the other road user (including blind spot detection technology; underride protection at the front, rear, and side; and energy-absorbing fronts); and improvements in motorcycle safety concerning protective clothing, requirements for advanced braking systems, improved visibility of motorcycles by using daytime running lights, and better guardrails.     

道路行车安全性虚拟评价方法研究

针对在道路建成之前很难对设计道路进行有效的安全性评价的问题,在介绍运行车速评价法、速度分布评价法、线形指数评价法和驾驶人工作负荷评价法等国外道路安全评价方法的基础上,提出包括运行车速与设计车速差、相邻路段运行车速差、速度降低因子、横向力系数变化因子以及路段间的加速度值等5个评价因子在内的道路安全评价模型,并确定了相应指标的评价标准.该方法的评价过程包括自行模式和互动模式.自行模式是在驾驶员模糊车速控制模型的基础上预测路段的运行车速,从而进行线形的安全评价;交互模式主要是在虚拟仿真的基础上对道路、隧道、桥梁的交通工程设施、照明等系统进行安全性评价.通过该评价方法可以在道路的设计阶段发现存在的行车安全性问题,通过修改设计或进行安全改善,提高道路的运营安全性.     

Designing a composite indicator for road safety

This study set out to develop a composite road safety indicator for benchmarking countries’ road safety performance, which would combine the main layers of the road safety pyramid which describes the complex nature of road safety activities, performance and outcomes. Four groups of basic safety indicators were considered, which refer to: policy performance (road safety programmes), final road safety outcomes (fatality rates, scope of traffic injury), intermediate outcomes (wearing rates of seat belts, crashworthiness and composition of vehicle fleet, alcohol-impaired driving), and background characteristics of countries (motorization level, population density). The analysis used the data collected for 27 European countries. Weights based on statistical models were used to combine the basic indicators into a composite one. Principal Component Analysis and Common Factor Analysis weighting were examined. The composite indicators, estimated by several methods, enabled us to rank and group the countries according to their safety performance.The analysis revealed that the countries’ ranking based on the composite indicators is not necessarily similar to the traditional ranking of countries based on fatality rates only. Furthermore, it was observed that the indicators belonging to the final outcomes and intermediate outcomes are not uniform in their behaviour. Indicators which were found to be more consistent and influential and termed a ‘core set of basic indicators’ are recommended for future uses. The general conclusion is that the design of a composite road safety indicator in which relevant information from the different components of the road safety pyramid has been captured and weighted is realistic and meaningful. Such an indicator gives a more enriched picture of road safety than a ranking based only on fatality rates, which is the common practice at present. Grouping countries in this process is promising and seems to be preferable to simply ranking countries.     

道路交通安全性评估模式的探讨

鉴于目前我国高等级道路事故多点(段)通常是车辆实际行驶车速远高于"设计车速"的道路路段这一共同特征,从道路使用者的角度,提出评估道路路段的交通安全性时应引入"道路认知安全性"这一新评价指标,并从人-车-路-环境系统安全考量,对道路的"设计安全性"和"认知安全性"进行了初步定义.在此基础上,分析了道路认知安全性指标与道路实际安全水平的定性关系,阐述了道路的认知安全性评价模式在贯彻"以人为本"的道路设计新理念以及在科学分析道路事故多发点成因等方面的重要意义.最后提出了实施道路认知安全性评价的初步设想.     

Introducing the STAMP method in road tunnel safety assessment

After the tremendous accidents in European road tunnels over the past decade, many risk assessment methods have been proposed worldwide, most of them based on Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). Although QRAs are helpful to address physical aspects and facilities of tunnels, current approaches in the road tunnel field have limitations to model organizational aspects, software behavior and the adaptation of the tunnel system over time. This paper reviews the aforementioned limitations and highlights the need to enhance the safety assessment process of these critical infrastructures with a complementary approach that links the organizational factors to the operational and technical issues, analyze software behavior and models the dynamics of the tunnel system. To achieve this objective, this paper examines the scope for introducing a safety assessment method which is based on the systems thinking paradigm and draws upon the STAMP model. The method proposed is demonstrated through a case study of a tunnel ventilation system and the results show that it has the potential to identify scenarios that encompass both the technical system and the organizational structure. However, since the method does not provide quantitative estimations of risk, it is recommended to be used as a complementary approach to the traditional risk assessments rather than as an alternative.     

Parental risk perceptions of childhood pedestrian road safety

Problem: Pedestrian injury is a major hazard to the health of children in most developed countries, including Australia. In a previous study it was found that parental road risk perception is a significant factor associated with their modeling of safe behavior as pedestrians. This study aimed to investigate factors that affect parental road risk perception. Method: This cross-sectional population-based randomized telephone survey aimed to study factors associated with risk perception on pedestrian road safety among parents with young children aged 4–12 years. Results: Five factors were found to be significantly associated with parental risk perception. They included age of child, sex of parent, employment of parent, living environment, and previous injury experience. The results suggested that the age of the child contributed greatest to the variance explained by the regression model. However, other factors remained significant even after adjusting for each other. Discussion: Results were discussed in light of the design and development of childhood pedestrian road safety campaigns. Impact on industry: Parental risk perceptions determine their safe road modeling behavior. In this study, significant factors that affect parental road risk perception have been identified. The information obtained can be used in the design of road safety programs that aim at changing the road risk perception of parents.     

Intrinsic road safety: A new approach?

In 1991 the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management concluded that its policy regarding road-safety should be sharpened in order that its goal set for road-safety in the year 2010 would be achieved (i.e. 50% reduction of dead and 40% reduction of wounded persons in comparison with 1986). This new policy is being called “Intrinsic Safety”.The important elements of this course of action are:

• - A greater degree of control of structural developments.

• - Increased action to prevent accidents rather than that which reduces the severity of the consequences of accidents.

• - Greater attention for an integral approach of traffic safety, through influencing all kinds of decision makers outside the realm of traffic safety.

• - Not viewing and treating the human aspects, the roads and the vehicles in isolation, but primarily focusing attention on the interaction between these components.

At the moment the Ministry has inaugurated some actions which will be a more specific elaboration of “Intrinsic Safety”.In this paper we will try to analyze whether this new policy is a totally new concept rather than an intensification of the old course of action. Furthermore we will discuss a few problems which may occur when the “Intrinsic Safety” approach will be elaborated in the near future. For example:

• - How do we make sure that chosen measures (e.g. decisions concerning the infrastructure) will be the most effectual ones in relation with safety?

• - Is the organisation at this moment sufficiently fit to work on an “intrinsically safe traffic system” or is it inappropriate? (e.g., presently there is an increasing tendency of decisions being made by regional departments rather than by central government)

• - Are we in the possession of sufficient knowledge concerning the interactions between the several goals of traffic policy so that actions taken in relation with one goal (e.g. reducing air pollution) will not have a negative effect on traffic safety?

     

基于层次分析法的城市道路安全性评价

本文选择城市道路为评价对象,评价范围包括道路条件和交通环境.首先建立层次结构的城市道路安全性评价指标体系,然后运用层次分析法确定各个指标的权重,再利用线性加权求和,最终得到城市道路安全性评价的结果.     

The trade-off between efficiency and equity in road safety policy

This paper discusses the relationship between efficiency and equity as objectives of road safety policy. The term efficiency refers to the efficient use of all road safety measures. Road safety measures are used efficiently if the priority given to them is based on the criterion that marginal social benefits should be at least equal to marginal social costs. To use road safety measures efficiently therefore means that the priority given to each measure is set strictly according to cost–benefit analyses. Thus, the main question discussed in this paper is whether setting priorities for safety measures strictly according to cost–benefit analyses will produce results that are regarded as equitable and fair. The notions of equity and fairness do not have any universally accepted definitions. In the paper, an attempt is made to apply John Rawls’ difference principle as a criterion of fairness with respect to the distribution of risk. The distribution of risk is examined along several dimensions: between groups of road users, between regions, between social groups, and with respect to the relationship between who pays for a road safety measure and who benefits from it. It is concluded that there is a conflict between efficiency and equity as far as the provision of road safety is concerned. Promoting greater equity requires a departure from efficiency, as defined in economic welfare theory, as the only criterion for setting policy priorities.     

Investigating safety of vulnerable road users in selected EU countries

Problem: Vulnerable road users comprise over half of all road accident victims in the EU and their safety situation is not improving as fast as for motorists. The paper examines factors affecting fatality risk of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and moped riders in seven EU countries using data from CARE database. Method: Comparing accident severity indicators between countries is problematic because of data quality issues, different degree of underreporting, and different exposure levels. To avoid bias arising from these issues, fatality risk is modeled with binary logistic regression. Risk factors considered include accident location by area type, junction type, and traffic control, as well as lighting condition. Results are presented as odds ratios of fatal accident outcome in different countries under specific circumstances compared to reference conditions. It is shown that the error in OR values due to underreporting is small. Results and discussion: Wide confidence intervals of the odds ratios in some countries confirm problems with accident data quality. Fatality risk is always higher for non-urban versus urban area and for darkness versus daylight conditions, but the odds ratios are different for different countries. Inconsistent results are obtained for accident location with respect to junction and its control type. Possible reasons for these differences are suggested and discussed. Practical applications: The proposed method avoids the data quality bias of accident severity indicators, thus, it can be used in international comparisons of vulnerable road user accidents. The article findings also support the concept of changes in legislation, such as reducing the speed limit in urban areas in Poland at night. Generally, the experience of countries with low VRU fatality risk identified in the article can be transferred to those with a higher risk.     

林区公路的管护与交通事故

简要地介绍了伊春林区公路运输中存在的问题，分析了交通事故的原因，提出了具体整改措施。     

车辆保险--交通安全管理的经济手段

中国道路交通安全面临着前所未有的挑战.本文在分析车辆保险与投保人安全驾驶关系的基础上,提出推行车辆保险是解决我国当前道路交通安全、保障交通事故受害者合法权益的有效经济手段之一.