Simulating the fine and coarse inorganic particulate matter concentrations in a polluted megacity

A three dimensional chemical transport model (PMCAMx) is applied to the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to simulate the chemical composition and mass of the major PM₁ (fine) and PM_1–10 (coarse) inorganic components and determine the effect of mineral dust on their formation. The aerosol thermodynamic model ISORROPIA-II is used to explicitly simulate the effect of Ca, Mg, and K from dust on semi-volatile partitioning and water uptake. The hybrid approach is applied to simulate the inorganic components, assuming that the smallest particles are in thermodynamic equilibrium, while describing the mass transfer to and from the larger ones. The official MCMA 2004 emissions inventory with improved dust and NaCl emissions is used. The comparison between the model predictions and measurements during a week of April of 2003 at Centro Nacional de Investigacion y Capacitacion Ambiental (CENICA) “Supersite” shows that the model reproduces reasonably well the fine mode composition and its diurnal variation. Sulfate predicted levels are relatively uniform in the area (approximately 3 μg m^?3), while ammonium nitrate peaks in Mexico City (approximately 7 μg m^?3) and its concentration rapidly decreases due to dilution and evaporation away from the urban area. In areas of high dust concentrations, the associated alkalinity is predicted to increase the concentration of nitrate, chloride and ammonium in the coarse mode by up to 2 μg m^?3 (a factor of 10), 0.4 μg m^?3, and 0.6 μg m^?3 (75%), respectively. The predicted ammonium nitrate levels inside Mexico City for this period are sensitive to the physical state (solid versus liquid) of the particles during periods with RH less than 50%.     

The variations in the concentrations of airborne particulate matter with wind direction and wind speed in Denmark

A statistical investigation of the connection between wind direction and wind speed and concentrations of airborne particulate matter at different places in Denmark is briefly described. The results show that the mean concentration levels over the whole country are highest in case of southerly to southeasterly winds. In general, the mean concentrations are decreasing with increasing wind speed for most wind directions, but in southeasterly winds the mean concentrations are higher for high wind speeds than for low wind speeds.     

Spatial and temporal variability in urban fine particulate matter concentrations

Identification of hot spots for urban fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) concentrations is complicated by the significant contributions from regional atmospheric transport and the dependence of spatial and temporal variability on averaging time. We focus on PM(2.5) patterns in New York City, which includes significant local sources, street canyons, and upwind contributions to concentrations. A literature synthesis demonstrates that long-term (e.g., one-year) average PM(2.5) concentrations at a small number of widely-distributed monitoring sites would not show substantial variability, whereas short-term (e.g., 1-h) average measurements with high spatial density would show significant variability. Statistical analyses of ambient monitoring data as a function of wind speed and direction reinforce the significance of regional transport but show evidence of local contributions. We conclude that current monitor siting may not adequately capture PM(2.5) variability in an urban area, especially in a mega-city, reinforcing the necessity of dispersion modeling and methods for analyzing high-resolution monitoring observations.     

Temporal variations of fine and coarse particulate matter sources in Jeddah,Saudi Arabia

This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of the seasonal variations and weekday/weekend differences in fine (aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm; PM_2.5) and coarse (aerodynamic diameter 2.5–10 μm; PM_2.5–10) particulate matter mass concentrations, elemental constituents, and potential source origins in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Air quality samples were collected over 1 yr, from June 2011 to May 2012 at a frequency of three times per week, and analyzed. The average mass concentrations of PM_2.5 (21.9 μg/m³) and PM₁₀ (107.8 μg/m³) during the sampling period exceeded the recommended annual average levels by the World Health Organization (WHO) for PM_2.5 (10 μg/m³) and PM₁₀ (20 μg/m³), respectively. Similar to other Middle Eastern locales, PM_2.5–10 is the prevailing mass component of atmospheric particulate matter at Jeddah, accounting for approximately 80% of the PM₁₀ mass. Considerations of enrichment factors, absolute principal component analysis (APCA), concentration roses, and backward trajectories identified the following source categories for both PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10: (1) soil/road dust, (2) incineration, and (3) traffic; and for PM_2.5 only, (4) residual oil burning. Soil/road dust accounted for a major portion of both the PM_2.5 (27%) and PM_2.5–10 (77%) mass, and the largest source contributor for PM_2.5 was from residual oil burning (63%). Temporal variations of PM_2.5–10 and PM_2.5 were observed, with the elevated concentration levels observed for mass during the spring (due to increased dust storm frequency) and on weekdays (due to increased traffic). The predominant role of windblown soil and road dust in both the PM_2.5 and PM_2.5–10 masses in this city may have implications regarding the toxicity of these particles versus those in the Western world where most PM health assessments have been made in the past. These results support the need for region-specific epidemiological investigations to be conducted and considered in future PM standard setting.

Implications: Temporal variations of fine and coarse PM mass, elemental constituents, and sources were examined in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for the first time. The main source of PM_2.5–10 is natural windblown soil and road dust, whereas the predominant source of PM_2.5 is residual oil burning, generated from the port and oil refinery located west of the air sampler, suggesting that targeted emission controls could significantly improve the air quality in the city. The compositional differences point to a need for health effect studies to be conducted in this region, so as to directly assess the applicability of the existing guidelines to the Middle East air pollution.     

Chemical characterization and source apportionment of fine and coarse particulate matter in Lahore,Pakistan

Lahore, Pakistan is an emerging megacity that is heavily polluted with high levels of particle air pollution. In this study, respirable particulate matter (PM_2.5 and PM₁₀) were collected every sixth day in Lahore from 12 January 2007 to 19 January 2008. Ambient aerosol was characterized using well-established chemical methods for mass, organic carbon (OC), elemental carbon (EC), ionic species (sulfate, nitrate, chloride, ammonium, sodium, calcium, and potassium), and organic species. The annual average concentration (±one standard deviation) of PM_2.5 was 194 ± 94 μg m^?3 and PM₁₀ was 336 ± 135 μg m^?3. Coarse aerosol (PM_10?2.5) was dominated by crustal sources like dust (74 ± 16%, annual average ± one standard deviation), whereas fine particles were dominated by carbonaceous aerosol (organic matter and elemental carbon, 61 ± 17%). Organic tracer species were used to identify sources of PM_2.5 OC and chemical mass balance (CMB) modeling was used to estimate relative source contributions. On an annual basis, non-catalyzed motor vehicles accounted for more than half of primary OC (53 ± 19%). Lesser sources included biomass burning (10 ± 5%) and the combined source of diesel engines and residual fuel oil combustion (6 ± 2%). Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was an important contributor to ambient OC, particularly during the winter when secondary processing of aerosol species during fog episodes was expected. Coal combustion alone contributed a small percentage of organic aerosol (1.9 ± 0.3%), but showed strong linear correlation with unidentified sources of OC that contributed more significantly (27 ± 16%). Brick kilns, where coal and other low quality fuels are burned together, are suggested as the most probable origins of unapportioned OC. The chemical profiling of emissions from brick kilns and other sources unique to Lahore would contribute to a better understanding of OC sources in this megacity.     

Errors in coarse particulate matter mass concentrations and spatiotemporal characteristics when using subtraction estimation methods

In studies of coarse particulate matter (PM_10-2.5), mass concentrations are often estimated through the subtraction of PM_2.5 from collocated PM₁₀ tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM) measurements. Though all field instruments have yet to be updated, the Filter Dynamic Measurement System (FDMS) was introduced to account for the loss of semivolatile material from heated TEOM filters. To assess errors in PM_10-2.5 estimation when using the possible combinations of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 TEOM units with and without FDMS, data from three monitoring sites of the Colorado Coarse Rural–Urban Sources and Health (CCRUSH) study were used to simulate four possible subtraction methods for estimating PM_10-2.5 mass concentrations. Assuming all mass is accounted for using collocated TEOMs with FDMS, the three other subtraction methods were assessed for biases in absolute mass concentration, temporal variability, spatial correlation, and homogeneity. Results show collocated units without FDMS closely estimate actual PM_10-2.5 mass and spatial characteristics due to the very low semivolatile PM_10-2.5 concentrations in Colorado. Estimation using either a PM_2.5 or PM₁₀ monitor without FDMS introduced absolute biases of 2.4 µg/m³ (25%) to –2.3 µg/m³ (–24%), respectively. Such errors are directly related to the unmeasured semivolatile mass and alter measures of spatiotemporal variability and homogeneity, all of which have implications for the regulatory and epidemiology communities concerned about PM_10-2.5. Two monitoring sites operated by the state of Colorado were considered for inclusion in the CCRUSH acute health effects study, but concentrations were biased due to sampling with an FDMS-equipped PM_2.5 TEOM and PM₁₀ TEOM not corrected for semivolatile mass loss. A regression-based model was developed for removing the error in these measurements by estimating the semivolatile concentration of PM_2.5 from total PM_2.5 concentrations. By estimating nonvolatile PM_2.5 concentrations from this relationship, PM_10-2.5 was calculated as the difference between nonvolatile PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations.

Implications: Errors in the estimation of PM_10-2.5 concentrations using subtraction methods were shown to be related to the unmeasured semivolatile mass when using certain combinations of TEOM instruments. For the northeastern Colorado region, the absolute bias associated with this error significantly affects mean and 95th percentile values, which would affect assessment of compliance if PM_10-2.5 is regulated in the future. Estimating PM_10-2.5 mass concentrations using nonvolatile mass concentrations from collocated PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 TEOM monitors closely estimates the total PM_10-2.5 mass concentrations. A corrective model that removes the described error was developed and applied to data from two sites in Denver.

Supplemental Materials: Supplemental materials are available for this paper. Go to the publisher's online edition of the Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association.     

Effects of sulfur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen emission reductions on fine particulate matter mass concentrations: regional comparisons

Two thermodynamic equilibrium models were applied to estimate changes in mean airborne fine particle (PM2.5) mass concentrations that could result from changes in ambient concentrations of sulfate, nitric acid, or ammonia in the southeastern United States, the midwestern United States, and central California. Pronounced regional differences were found. Southeastern sites exhibited the lowest current mean concentrations of nitrate, and the smallest predicted responses of PM2.5 nitrate and mass concentrations to reductions of nitric acid, which is the principal reaction product of the oxidation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and the primary gas-phase precursor of fine particulate nitrate. Weak responses of PM2.5 nitrate and mass concentrations to changes in nitric acid levels occurred even if sulfate concentrations were half of current levels. The midwestern sites showed higher levels of fine particulate nitrate, characterized by cold-season maxima, and were projected to show decreases in overall PM levels following decreases of either sulfate or nitric acid. For some midwestern sites, predicted PM2.5 nitrate concentrations increased as modeled sulfate levels declined, but sulfate reductions always reduced the predicted fine PM mass concentrations; PM2.5 nitrate concentrations became more sensitive to reductions of nitric acid as modeled sulfate concentrations were decreased. The California sites currently have the highest mean concentrations of fine PM nitrate and the lowest mean concentrations of fine PM sulfate. Both the estimated PM2.5 nitrate and fine mass concentrations decreased in response to modeled reductions of nitric acid at all California sites. The results indicate important regional differences in expected PM2.5 mass concentration responses to changes in sulfate and nitrate precursors. Analyses of ambient data, such as described here, can be a key part of weight of evidence (WOE) demonstrations for PM2.5 attainment plans. Acquisition of the data may require special sampling efforts, especially for PM2.5 precursor concentration data.     

The wind speed dependence of the concentrations of airborne particulate matter and NOx

The wind speed dependence of concentrations of PM₁₀, chloride, sulphate, nitrate, organic carbon, elemental carbon, particle number and NO_x has been determined at three separate sites, Marylebone Road (kerbside), North Kensington (urban background) and Harwell (rural). The data are best described by a general dilution term multiplied by up to three separate source-related terms which we interpret as representing long-range transport sources, discrete local (including area) sources and marine sources respectively. Using this approach, the various particulate metrics can be quantitatively disaggregated according to the contributions of the three source types. The behaviour of nitrate is anomalous, probably due to an influence of wind speed upon the dissociation of ammonium nitrate.     

Numerical study of the effect of ventilation pattern on coarse, fine, and very fine particulate matter removal in partitioned indoor environment

An indoor size-dependent particulate matter (PM) transport approach is developed to investigate coarse PM (PM10), fine PM (PM2.5), and very fine PM (PM1) removal behaviors in a ventilated partitioned indoor environment. The approach adopts the Eulerian large eddy simulation of turbulent flow and the Lagrangian particle trajectory tracking to solve the continuous airflow phase and the discrete particle phase, respectively. Model verification, including sensitivity tests of grid resolution and particle numbers, is conducted by comparison with the full-size experiments conducted previously. Good agreement with the measured mass concentrations is found. Numerical scenario simulations of the effect of ventilation patterns on PM removal are performed by using three common ventilation patterns (piston displacement, mixing, and cross-flow displacement ventilation) with a measured indoor PM10 profile in the Taipei metropolis as the initial condition. The temporal variations of suspended PM10, PM2.5, and PM1 mass concentrations and particle removal mechanisms are discussed. The simulated results show that for all the of the three ventilation patterns, PM2.5 and PM1 are much more difficult to remove than PM10. From the purpose of health protection for indoor occupants, it is not enough to only use the PM10 level as the indoor PM index. Indoor PM2.5 and PM1 levels should be also considered. Cross-flow displacement ventilation is more effective to remove all PM10, PM2.5, and PM1 than the other ventilation patterns. Displacement ventilation would result in more escaped particles and less deposited particles than mixing ventilation.     

Effect of meteorological parameters on fine and coarse particulate matter mass concentration in a coal-mining area in Zonguldak, Turkey

In this work, the effect of meteorological parameters and local topography on mass concentrations of fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) particles and their seasonal behavior was investigated. A total of 236 pairs of samplers were collected using an Anderson Dichotomous sampler between December 2004 and October 2005. The average mass concentrations of PM2.5, PM2.5-10, and particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) were found to be 29.38, 23.85, and 53.23 microg/m3, respectively. The concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 were found to be higher in heating seasons (December to May) than in summer. The increase of relative humidity, cloudiness, and lower temperature was found to be highly related to the increase of particulate matter (PM) episodic events. During non-rainy days, the episodic events for PM2.5 and PM10 were increased by 30 and 10.7%, respectively. This is a result of the extensive use of fuel during winter for heating purposes and also because of stagnant air masses formed because of low temperature and low wind speed over the study area.     

Feasibility of using low-cost portable particle monitors for measurement of fine and coarse particulate matter in urban ambient air

Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) is known as a significant risk factor for mortality and morbidity due to cardiorespiratory causes. Owing to increased interest in assessing personal and community exposures to PM, we evaluated the feasibility of employing a low-cost portable direct-reading instrument for measurement of ambient air PM exposure. A Dylos DC 1700 PM sensor was collocated with a Grimm 11-R in an urban residential area of Houston Texas. The 1-min averages of particle number concentrations for sizes between 0.5 and 2.5 µm (small size) and sizes larger than 2.5 µm (large size) from a DC 1700 were compared with the 1-min averages of PM_2.5 (aerodynamic size less than 2.5 µm) and coarse PM (aerodynamic size between 2.5 and 10 µm) concentrations from a Grimm 11-R. We used a linear regression equation to convert DC 1700 number concentrations to mass concentrations, utilizing measurements from the Grimm 11-R. The estimated average DC 1700 PM_2.5 concentration (13.2 ± 13.7 µg/m³) was similar to the average measured Grimm 11-R PM_2.5 concentration (11.3 ± 15.1 µg/m³). The overall correlation (r²) for PM_2.5 between the DC 1700 and Grimm 11-R was 0.778. The estimated average coarse PM concentration from the DC 1700 (5.6 ± 12.1 µg/m³) was also similar to that measured with the Grimm 11-R (4.8 ± 16.5 µg/m³) with an r² of 0.481. The effects of relative humidity and particle size on the association between the DC 1700 and the Grimm 11-R results were also examined. The calculated PM mass concentrations from the DC 1700 were close to those measured with the Grimm 11-R when relative humidity was less than 60% for both PM_2.5 and coarse PM. Particle size distribution was more important for the association of coarse PM between the DC 1700 and Grimm 11-R than it was for PM_2.5.

Implications: The performance of a low-cost particulate matter (PM) sensor was evaluated in an urban residential area. Both PM_2.5 and coarse PM (PM_10-2.5) mass concentrations were estimated using a DC1700 PM sensor. The calculated PM mass concentrations from the number concentrations of DC 1700 were close to those measured with the Grimm 11-R when relative humidity was less than 60% for both PM_2.5 and coarse PM. Particle size distribution was more important for the association of coarse PM between the DC 1700 and Grimm 11-R than it was for PM_2.5.     

Determination of levoglucosan in atmospheric fine particulate matter

A microanalytical method suitable for the quantitative determination of the sugar anhydride levoglucosan in low-volume samples of atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM) has been developed and validated. The method incorporates two sugar anhydrides as quality control standards. The recovery standard sedoheptulosan (2,7-anhydro-beta-D-altro-heptulopyranose) in 20 microL solvent is added onto samples of the atmospheric fine PM and aged for 1 hr before ultrasonic extraction with ethylacetate/ triethylamine. The extract is reduced in volume, an internal standard is added (1,5-anhydro-D-mannitol), and a portion of the extract is derivatized with 10% by volume N-trimethylsilylimidazole. The derivatized extract is analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The recovery of levoglucosan using this procedure was 69 +/- 6% from five filters amended with 2 microg levoglucosan, and the reproducibility of the assay is 9%. The limit of detection is approximately 0.1 microg/mL, which is equivalent to approximately 3.5 ng/m3 for a 10 L/min sampler or approximately 8.7 ng/m3 for a 4 L/min personal sampler (assuming 24-hr integrated samples). We demonstrated that levoglucosan concentrations in collocated samples (expressed as ng/m3) were identical irrespective of whether samples were collected by PM with aerodynamic diameter < or = 2.5 microm or PM with aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm impactors. It was also demonstrated that X-ray fluorescence analysis of samples of atmospheric PM, before levoglucosan determinations, did not alter the levels of levoglucosan.     

Concentrations of particulate matter emitted from large cattle feedlots in Kansas

Particulate matter (PM) emitted from cattle feedlots are thought to affect air quality in rural communities, yet little is known about factors controlling their emissions. The concentrations of PM (i.e., PM2.5, PM10, and total suspended particulates or TSP) upwind and downwind at two large cattle feedlots (KS1, KS2) in Kansas were measured with gravimetric samplers from May 2006 to October 2009 (at KS1) and from September 2007 to April 2008 (at KS2). The mean downwind and net (i.e., downwind - upwind) mass concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, and TSP varied seasonally, indicating the need for multiple-day, seasonal sampling. The downwind and net concentrations were closely related to the moisture content of the pen surface. The PM2.5/PM10 and PM2.5/TSP ratios at the downwind sampling location were also related to the moisture content of the pen surface, humidity, and temperature. Measurement of the particle size distribution downwind of the feedlot with a cascade impactor showed geometric mean diameter ranging from 7 to 18 microm, indicating that particles that were emitted from the feedlots were generally large in size.     

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 2--findings from recent field programs on the intraurban variability in fine particulate matter

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites Program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the degree of intraurban variability for various physical and chemical properties of ambient fine particulate matter. Spatial patterns vary from nearly homogeneous to quite heterogeneous, depending on the city, parameter of interest, and the approach or method used to define spatial variability. Secondary formation, which is often regional in nature, drives fine particulate matter mass and the relevant chemical components toward high intraurban spatial homogeneity. Those particulate matter components that are dominated by primary emissions within the urban area, such as black carbon and several trace elements, tend to exhibit greater spatial heterogeneity. A variety of study designs and data analysis approaches have been used to characterize intraurban variability. High temporal correlation does not imply spatial homogeneity. For example, there can be high temporal correlation but with spatial heterogeneity manifested as smooth spatial gradients, often emanating from areas of high emissions such as the urban core or industrial zones.     

Theoretical study of the impact of particulate matter gravitational settling on ambient coarse particulate matter monitoring for agricultural emissions

The particle size distributions (PSDs) of particulate matter (PM) in the downwind plume from simulated sources of a cotton gin were analyzed to determine the impact of PM settling on PM monitoring. The PSD of PM in a plume varies as a function of gravitational settling. Gravitational settling has a greater impact on the downwind PSD from sources with PSDs having larger mass median diameters (MMDs). The change in PSD is a function of the source PSD of emitted PM, wind speed, and downwind distance. Both MMD and geometric standard deviation (GSD) in the downwind plume decrease with an increase in downwind distance and source MMD. The larger the source MMD, the greater the change in the downwind MMD and GSD. Also, the greater the distance from the source to the sampler, the greater the change in the downwind MMD and GSD. Variations of the PSD in the downwind plume significantly impact PM10 sampling errors associated with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) PM10 samplers. For the emission sources with MMD > 10 microm, the PM10 oversampling rate increases with an increase in downwind distance caused by the decrease of GSD of the PSD in the downwind plume. Gravitational settling of particles does not help reduce the oversampling problems associated with the EPA PM10 sampler. Furthermore, oversampling rates decrease with an increase of the wind speed.     

Effect of the fine fraction of particulate matter versus the coarse mass and other pollutants on daily mortality in Santiago, Chile

Daily counts of non-accidental deaths in Santiago, Chile, from 1988 to 1996 were regressed on six air pollutants--fine particles (PM2.5), coarse particles (PM10-2.5), CO, SO2, NO2, and O3. Controlling for seasonal and meteorological conditions was done using three different models--a generalized linear model, a generalized additive model, and a generalized additive model on previously filtered data. Single- and two-pollutant models were tested for lags of 1-5 days and the average of the previous 2-5 days. The increase in mortality associated with the mean levels of air pollution varied from 4 to 11%, depending on the pollutants and the way season of the year was considered. The results were not sensitive to the modeling approaches, but different effects for warmer and colder months were found. Fine particles were more important than coarse particles in the whole year and in winter, but not in summer. NO2 and CO were also significantly associated with daily mortality, as was O3 in the warmer months. No consistent effect was observed for SO2. Given particle composition in Santiago, these results suggest that combustion-generated pollutants, especially from motor vehicles, may be associated with increased mortality. Temperature was closely associated with mortality. High temperatures led to deaths on the same day, while low temperatures lead to deaths from 1 to 4 days later.     

Personal exposure to fine particulate matter concentrations in central business district of a tropical coastal city

In the present study, personal exposure to fine particulate matter (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm [PM_2.5]) concentrations in an urban hotspot (central business district [CBD]) was investigated. The PM monitoring campaigns were carried out at an urban hotspot from June to October 2015. The personal exposure monitoring was performed during three different time periods, i.e., morning (8 a.m.?9 a.m.), afternoon (12.30 p.m.–1.30 p.m.), and evening (4 p.m.–5 p.m.), to cover both the peak and lean hour activities of the CBD. The median PM_2.5 concentrations were 38.1, 34.9, and 40.4 µg/m³ during the morning, afternoon, and evening hours on the weekends. During weekdays, the median PM_2.5 concentrations were 59.5, 29.6, and 36.6 µg/m³ in the morning, afternoon, and evening hours, respectively. It was observed that the combined effect of traffic emissions, complex land use, and micrometeorological conditions created localized air pollution hotspots. Furthermore, the total PM_2.5 lung dose levels for an exposure duration of 1 hr were 8.7 ± 5.7 and 12.3 ± 5.2 µg at CBD during weekends and weekdays, respectively, as compared with 2.5 ± 0.8 µg at the urban background (UB). This study emphasizes the need for mobile measurement for short-term personal exposure assessment complementing the fixed air quality monitoring.

Implications: Personal exposure monitoring at an urban hotspot indicated space and time variation in PM concentrations that is not captured by the fixed air quality monitoring networks. The short-term exposure to higher concentrations can have a significant impact on health that need to be considered for the health risk–based air quality management. The study emphasizes the need of hotspot-based monitoring complementing the already existing fixed air quality monitoring in urban areas. The personal exposure patterns at hotspots can provide additional insight into sustainable urban planning.     

Nonlinear analysis and prediction of coarse particulate matter concentration in ambient air

This study attempts to characterize and predict coarse particulate matter (PM10) concentration in ambient air using the concepts of nonlinear dynamical theory. PM10 data observed daily from 1999 to 2002 at a site in Mumbai, India, was used to study the applicability of the chaos theory. First, the autocorrelation function and Fourier power spectrum were used to analyze the behavior of the time-series. The dynamics of the time-series was additionally studied through correlation integral analysis and phase space reconstruction. The nonlinear predictions were then obtained using local polynomial approximation based on the reconstructed phase space. The results were then compared with the autoregressive model. The results of nonlinear analysis indicated the presence of chaotic character in the PM10 time-series. It was also observed that the nonlinear local approximation outperforms the autoregressive model, because the observed relative error of prediction for the autoregressive model was greater than the local approximation model. The invariant measures of nonlinear dynamics computed for the predicted time-series using the two models also supported the same findings.     

A land use regression for predicting fine particulate matter concentrations in the New York City region

We developed regression equations to predict fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) at air monitoring locations in the New York City region using data on nearby traffic and land use patterns. Three-year averages (1999–2001) of PM_2.5 at US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) monitors in the 28 counties including and surrounding New York City were calculated using daily data from the EPA's Air Quality Subsystem. As the secondary contribution to PM_2.5 concentrations is lowest in the winter, we also calculated and modeled average winter 2000 PM_2.5 to conduct a preliminary evaluation of model sensitivity to source contribution. Candidate predictor variables included traffic, land use, census and emissions data from local, state and national sources and were tabulated for a series of circular buffer regions at varying distances around the monitors using a geographic information system. In total, more than 25 variables at 5 different buffer distances were considered for inclusion in the model. Before evaluating the variables we removed several samples from the modeling for validation. For comparison and validation purposes we computed both a model using data for the full 28-county region as well as a more urbanized 9-county region. We found that traffic within a buffer of 300 or 500 m explains the greatest proportion of variance (37–44%) in all 3 models. Measures of urbanization, specifically population density, explain a significant amount of the residual variation (7–18%) after including a traffic variable. Finally, a measure of industrial land use further improves the 28-county and 9-county models based on the 3-yr annual averages, explaining an additional 4% and 11% of the variation, respectively, while vegetative land use improves the winter model explaining an additional 6%. The final models predicted well at validation locations. In total, the final land use regression models explain between 61% and 64% of the variation in PM_2.5.