The Use of Atmospheric Dispersion Models in Risk Assessment Decision Support Systems for Pesticides

In the evaluation of potentially adverse effects oforganic chemicals such as pesticides on theenvironment the atmosphere may play an important role.After its release to the atmosphere the chemical willbe transported/dispersed in the atmosphere and finallyit will be removed either by atmospheric-chemicaldestruction or by deposition to the underlying soil orsurface water. In a risk assessment decision supportsystem both ambient concentrations and depositionfluxes must be known to evaluate the risk of directexposure (inhalation) or the risk of soil and watercontamination caused by deposition. This paperdiscusses the use of atmospheric dispersion models insuch risk assessment decision support systems.     

Radioactive Contamination Control by Atmospheric Dispersion Assessment of Airborne Indicator Contaminants: Numerical Model Validation

In this work, a numerical model is proposed to estimate air concentration of released airborne radioactive contaminants ¹³¹I and ¹³⁷Cs. A Gaussian dispersion model is used to assess the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive contaminants released continuously from a nuclear power plant as a result of an accident. The model uses various input parameters such as source height, release rate, stability class, wind speed, and wind direction. The validation of the model was carried out by comparing its predicted values with published experimental data. The model was extensively tested by simulating several accidental situations. The main conclusion drawn from these tests is that for large downwind distances from the release point, the contaminant concentrations predicted by the model diverge drastically from measured data, while for short distances, the predicted values generally agree quite well with experimental data. The obtained activity concentrations range from 1.57?×?10² to 6.43?×?10³ Bq/m³ for ¹³¹I and from 3.18?×?10^?2 to 9.72?×?10² Bq/m³ for ¹³⁷Cs. The estimated standard deviation coefficients values range of 7.2 to 6847.7 m, and the maximum absolute error predicted by the model for these parameters was less than 5%.     

Modelling of Fluid Flow and Pollutant Dispersion in a Street Canyon

A two-dimensional steady state numerical simulation has been carried out for a typical street canyon ventilated by a cross-wind. The PHOENICS package from CHAM was used to solve for the air flow above and within the street canyon. The k-epsilon turbulence model was used for turbulence modelling and pollutant sources were added at ground level over the road but not over the pavements. Results for the air flow showed the formation of a longitudinal vortex within the street canyon, as found by other researchers. Pollutant concentrations were predicted with the highest values occurring at the leeward walls of the upwind buildings, and the lowest values on the windward walls of the downwind buildings. The accuracy of these simulations was examined by comparing the predicted results with field observations. Reasonable agreement was obtained, confirming the difference between concentrations on the leeward and windward walls. The results show that the dispersion characteristics can be simulated in terms of structural configurations.     

Investigation of Building - Influenced Atmospheric Dispersion Using a Dual Source Technique

Dispersion of atmospheric contaminants in the vicinity of an isolated cubical model building was investigated in the field. A dual source/receptor technique was used in the experiments, which was proved to be very useful for the investigation of pollution dispersion. This experimental technique involved the simultaneous release of two different tracer gases from two different point sources, and the deployment of a FID (Flame Ionization Detector) co-located with a UVIC®(Ultra-Violet Ion Collector) detector. Both mean concentrations and concentration fluctuation statistics were examined. In this paper concentration fluctuation statistics are presented. The effect of the upwind source location on intermittency values and on the cumulative density function (cdf) is examined. The exact location of a source placed upwind of an obstacle has a very significant and complex effect on both mean concentrations and concentration fluctuations. As the lateral or vertical displacement between the two sources is increased, cross-correlation values between data taken simultaneously by two co-located detectors decrease rapidly.     

Use of Neural Net Models to Forecast Atmospheric Pollution

The forecast of the CO and NO₂ concentration levels has been obtained by the 3-layer Perceptron Neural Network with Error Backpropagation learning rule.This study shows the 3-layer Perceptron performances in relationship with the choice of the activation functions parameters (depending on the statistical values of the input/output variables).A first simulation set using data at 1 hour before has been utilized to forecast CO levels. A second simulation set with data at 12–24 hours before has been used to forecast NO₂ levels.The Neural Net's performance appears to be very good both for the parameters activation function optimisation and the variables choice.     

Prediction of Fly-Ash Dispersion in the Southern Black Sea: A Preliminary Modelling Study

The distribution of fly ash that is discharged in the form of slurry from a power plant situated on the southern coast of the Black Sea was simulated with a transport model that used the velocity fields produced by isopycnic modelling. It is shown that a significant amount of ash is deposited in the vicinity of the discharge location. The ash remaining in the water column settles in a manner dependent on the direction and intensity of the local current regime. Generally, summer and spring are found to be seasons when the circulation is weak and the ash dispersion is confined to the shore. The model results are conditional upon obtaining observational data for validation.     

Prediction of Fly-Ash Dispersion in the Southern Black Sea: A Preliminary Modelling Study

The distribution of fly ash that is discharged in the form of slurry from a power plant situated on the southern coast of the Black Sea was simulated with a transport model that used the velocity fields produced by isopycnic modelling. It is shown that a significant amount of ash is deposited in the vicinity of the discharge location. The ash remaining in the water column settles in a manner dependent on the direction and intensity of the local current regime. Generally, summer and spring are found to be seasons when the circulation is weak and the ash dispersion is confined to the shore. The model results are conditional upon obtaining observational data for validation.     

Design of an Air-Quality Surveillance System for Buenos Aires City Integrated by a NO x Monitoring Network and Atmospheric Dispersion Models

This paper presents an air-quality surveillance system designed to detect the occurrence of air pollutant concentrations greater than a reference level in an urban area. The system is integrated by an air-quality monitoring network and atmospheric dispersion models simulations. An objective methodology to design an urban air-quality monitoring network is proposed. This methodology is based on the analysis of air-quality modelling results. The procedure is applied to design an air-quality monitoring network to control NO _x concentration levels in Buenos Aires City. Results indicate that six monitors will detect the occurrence of concentration greater than the air-quality guidelines with an efficiency of about 67%. Once a violation is detected, results of atmospheric dispersion models will help in the determination of affected areas. Four possible examples are included to illustrate the assistance that the results of atmospheric dispersion models can bring to a better estimation of possible affected areas in the city. Combining these results with the last census data, an estimation of the inhabitants possibly exposed is obtained.     

Three-dimensional Modelling of Radionuclides Dispersion in a Marine Environment with Application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Case

In this work, we present the implementation, verification and validation of a three-dimensional model able to reproduce the propagation of \(^{137}C_{s}\) radionuclide in coastal waters and its interaction with suspended sediments, in the framework of the open-source TELEMAC-MASCARET modelling system. The validation of the model was realized by comparing numerical results with field measurements of radionuclides concentration in the Japan Sea nearby the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP). The developed model uses as external forcing the data available immediately after or during the accident, as, e.g. weather conditions (wind, pressure, temperature) and/or the harmonic components of tides. In contrast with previous models implemented in the study area, the model presented here is limited to the coastal area near Fukushima and refined in the coastal area close to the NPP. Numerical results show that the model is able to reproduce the propagation and diffusion of the released \(^{137}C_{s}\) in the vicinity of the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP. Consequently, we show that the numerical results obtained with a small-scale model with a simple forcing are consistent, at a coastal scale, with models which employed a general circulation model based on data assimilation techniques or variation method for hydrodynamics. Therefore, this model could be employed in an emergency situation, when the dissolved radioactivity is considered.

     

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modelling of the Pollution Dispersion and Comparison with Measurements in a Street Canyon in Helsinki

A measuring campaign was conducted in a street canyon (Runeberg St.) in Helsinki in 2003–2004. The concentrations of NO _x , NO₂, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 were measured at street level and at roof level at an urban background location. This study utilises the data measured from 1 Jan to 30 April, 2004, when wind speed and direction measurements were also conducted on-site at the roof level. The computational fluid dynamics model ADREA-HF was used to compute the street concentrations, and the results were compared with the measurements. The predictions for the selected cases agreed fairly well (within < 25 % for 15 min average values) with the measured data, except for two cases: a windward flow in case of a low wind speed, and a moderate southerly flow parallel to the street canyon. The main reasons for the differences of predictions and measurements are the negligence of traffic-induced turbulence in the modelling and an under-prediction of ventilation of urban background air from a crossing street. Numerical results are presented for various example cases; these illustrate the formation of the vortices in the canyon in terms of the wind direction and speed and the influence of the characteristics of the flow fields on the concentration distributions.     

Assessment of Uncertainties in Modelling Land Use Change with an Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Model

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - Uncertainty in future land use change modelling is crucial to study as it may result in varying spatial characteristics and features of the model. An...     

A new approach to Assess Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition by Way of Standardized Exposition of mosses

A standardized method of moss exposition for assessing variations in nitrogen deposition was tested in the western part of Germany. Six pleurocarpous moss species were transplanted to two sites differing in their deposition rates but being comparable as to their climatic conditions. The mosses were exposed in standardized containers over a period of 12 months; the focus of interest was the effect of N deposition on nitrogen content and on ¹⁵N natural abundance (δ¹⁵N-values). Within the first nine months only trends could be observed. However, after one year all species tested showed significantly higher N concentrations at the highly polluted site. Besides, more negative δ¹⁵N-values possibly reflecting the higher ammonium input were detected at this site. Surprisingly, most of the plants though being kept in plastic containers without a favourable substratum did not show any conspicuous deficiency symptoms. The potential advantages of a standardized moss exposition for N monitoring purposes are discussed. It is concluded that the method presented here can yield significant results in particular if the number of testing sites is increased.     

Atmospheric deposition studies of heavy metals in Arctic by comparative analysis of lichens and cryoconite

Lichens and cryoconite (rounded or granular, brownish-black debris occurring in holes on the glacier surface) from Ny-Ålesund were used for understanding the elemental deposition pattern in the area. Lichen samples collected from low-lying coastal region and cryoconite samples from high altitudinal glacier area were processed and analysed for elements such as aluminium (Al), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr), cesium (Cs), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn) through inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Results showed that heavy metals, Al and Fe, are present in high concentration in the cryoconite samples. Al was also present in high amounts in seven of the eight lichen samples studied. The general scheme of elements in the decreasing order of their concentrations for most of the cryoconite samples was Al?>?Fe?>?Mn?>?Zn?>?V?>?Pb?>?Cr?>?Ni?>?Cu?>?Co?>?As?>?Cs?>?Cd while that for the lichen samples was Al?>?Fe?>?Zn?>?Mn?>?Pb?>?Cu?>?Cs?>?Cr?>?Ni?>?V?>?Co?>?As?>?Cd. Similarity in trends in the two sample types confirms that the environment indeed contains these elements in that order of concentration which overtime got accumulated in the samples. Overall comparison showed most elements to be present in high concentrations in the cryoconite samples as compared to the lichen samples. Within the lichens, elemental accumulation data suggests that the low-lying site (L-2) from where Cladonia mediterranea sample was collected was the most polluted accumulating a number of elements at high concentrations. The probable reasons for such deposition patterns in the region could be natural (crustal contribution and sea salt spray) and anthropogenic (local and long-distance transmission of dust particles). In the future, this data can form a baseline for monitoring quantum of atmospheric heavy metal deposition in lichens and cryoconite of Svalbard, Arctic.     

Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assessment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the transition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used validation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to predict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the municipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not perfectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.     

Migration of pollutants in groundwater. V. Modelling the removal of DNAPL droplets by flushing

Mathematical models are developed for the flushing of droplets of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) distributed in aquifers. The kinetics of the diffusion of dissolved volatile organic compound (VOC) from the droplets into the moving liquid is included in the models. Models are developed for the flushing of DNAPL droplets in lab columns, in aquifers with a one-dimensional radial flow field and in quiescent aquifers in which a single well screened at the bottom is used to bring about the flushing. Some representative results are given.     

Nitrate Leaching by Atmospheric N Deposition to Upper Groundwater in the Sandy Regions of The Netherlands in 1990

Anthropogenic increase in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in nature areas results in nitrate leaching to groundwater, threatening its quality. Member states of the European Union are obliged to reduce groundwater nitrate concentrations and to monitor this reduction. The relationship between N deposition and groundwater nitrate concentrations is quantified using a field survey and geographical information. Nitrate concentrations of the uppermost metre of groundwater in nature areas in the sandy regions in 1990 were related to geographical data by means of regression analysis. In this way nitrate concentrations could be explained by potential ammonia deposition, soil type, vegetation and land use. We found that about 35% of 54 kg ha(-1) a(-1) atmospheric N deposition was leached to the upper groundwater as nitrate, resulting in a mean NO3 concentration of about 30 mg L(-1). The critical N load for exceeding the EC limit value (50 mg L(-1)) in the sandy regions of The Netherlands composed of natural vegetation will be about 80 kg ha(-1) a(-1). Leaching is less than expected for nature areas but comparable with leaching of N surpluses in pastures in The Netherlands. A reduction in nitrate leaching by 25% or more can currently be detected via a new field survey.     

Modelling the Removal of Gaseous Pollutants and Particulate Matters from the Atmosphere of a City by Rain: Effect of Cloud Density

In this paper, an original nonlinear mathematical model for the removal of gaseous pollutants and particulate matters from the atmosphere of an industrial city by rain is proposed and analyzed. It is assumed that five interacting phases in the atmosphere of the city exist, i.e., cloud droplets phase, raindrops phase, gaseous pollutants phase, particulate matters phase, and the phase of absorbed gaseous pollutants in raindrops. It is assumed further that these phases undergo nonlinear interactions in the atmosphere, while gaseous pollutant interacts with cloud droplets as well as with raindrops but particulate matters interact only with raindrops. The gravitational settling and reversible reaction processes have also been considered appropriately in the model. By analyzing the model, it is shown that both the gaseous pollutants and particulate matters may be removed from the atmosphere under certain conditions, provided the rates of formation of cloud droplets and raindrops are sufficiently large. It is noted that under unfavorable atmospheric conditions, rain does not occur and pollutants are not removed from the atmosphere.     

塔里木河干流区域土地利用遥感动态监测

介绍了TM数据在土地利用动态监测中的应用方法,通过不同时期(2000年和2002年)的TM卫星影像,单独分类结果的对比,得出塔里木河干流区域土地利用动态变化信息。